I am updating my staus.
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Thought it was odd that there were so few questions. Not sure if they manage the queue or not.
rich
RINO - like owning a share in a soap-opera.eom
LLEN - mid Dec they are out of step with most companies.
Quarters end: July, Oct, Jan, April.
rich
LPH - I have being trying to download presentation [1] without any success. What I do know from the last time I saw the guidance [2].
2011 Financial Outlook
The Company maintains its current guidance for fiscal 2011. The Company projects revenues to exceed $500 million for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2011 and adjusted net income to exceed its forecasted $73 million (adjusted net of derivative and financing costs).
Was for 73 million (I get 15% of 500M giving 75M but anyway). If you use 115M that's 63 cents. So, I don't know how they could guide for 73 cents? Around 60 would be a safe estimate as it stands.
rich
[1] http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1111817/000101376210002237/ex991.pdf
[2] http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Longwei-Petroleum-Earnings-prnews-2099027488.html?x=0&.v=1
Bloomberg Interview: Lequn Lee Huang
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-12/specialty-drugmaker-sinobiopharma-takes-on-big-pharma-in-china.html
rich
LPH sorry yes, you are right they said 60 cents in the CC. They reiterated 500M revenue. Given that their margins can't change by more than a point or 2 (their words). It's a strange statement. If they get the revenue the earnings should follow.
If they did 500M then 15% net margin would give 75M net income which for 115M shares I get as 54 cents.
I think there was talk about the new facility giving higher margins? Dunno... can't square that myself. Any mistakes?
rich
LPH - reiterated guidance at the CC.
Here's my notes of Q/A
-How is shortage affecting your business?
Experienced no shortage. Led to more business. Reason they signed 2 new contracts.
- Guidance?
Staying with guidance and feeling confident and hoping to add. Keeping with it for now.
- Uplist?
Board considering that – NAZ is $4 stock price but is consideration.
- Oil price change in terms of earnings and revenues?
Price controls limit gain. Gives a 1 or 2 points . Pricing set on 22 day pricing. As prices rise they fill up tanks before reset. No wild swings that impact.
- Can you explain the warrant liabilities?
Arrived from financing for Oct 2009. Based on valuation of black-shoals model. Takes various factors. Don't recognize a gain or loss in your own stock. Until exercised there are no adjustments. Negotiated with accountants but can't do anything. As time during goes by it decreases. As warrant exercises convert that liability will reduce.
- Gross Margin - decline Q/Q - anything for this beyond seasonal
Seasonal an price movements up and down causing a point or 2.
- Revenue were down from previous Q form 7% - seasonal affect?
States is up in summer. In China less summer vacation travel. They don't use as much.
- Capacity utilization?
35% range – two new customers are using the [new - I think] facility.
rich
LPH - reiterated guidance at the CC.
Here's my notes of Q/A
-How is shortage affecting your business?
Experienced no shortage. Led to more business. Reason they signed 2 new contracts.
- Guidance?
Staying with guidance and feeling confident and hoping to add. Keeping with it for now.
- Uplist?
Board considering that – NAZ is $4 stock price but is consideration.
- Oil price change in terms of earnings and revenues?
Price controls limit gain. Gives a 1 or 2 points . Pricing set on 22 day pricing. As prices rise they fill up tanks before reset. No wild swings that impact.
- Can you explain the warrant liabilities?
Arrived from financing for Oct 2009. Based on valuation of black-shoals model. Takes various factors. Don't recognize a gain or loss in your own stock. Until exercised there are no adjustments. Negotiated with accountants but can't do anything. As time during goes by it decreases. As warrant exercises convert that liability will reduce.
- Gross Margin - decline Q/Q - anything for this beyond seasonal
Seasonal an price movements up and down causing a point or 2.
- Revenue were down from previous Q form 7% - seasonal affect?
States is up in summer. In China less summer vacation travel. They don't use as much.
- Capacity utilization?
35% range – two new customers are using the [new - I think] facility.
rich
That a general comment Louis has an itchy finger or is that specific "Not sure if I want to stay in LPH"?
rich
BSPM - parity required. Pre-Announcing strong Oct and No with what looks like record Q4 (Octobers 9M, Nov better). Rough estimate of 30 - 35% growth in 2011. Engaging a top 4 auditor in 2011. And that for parity Tough market, hehe.
rich
BSPM, V80alue has just finished listening CC.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=56754766
1) Oct revenue is 8.9m, Nov is better. So they are on track to reach guidance of 28m for Q4 and 80m for 2010.
2) Ad spending will be in line of 20-22% Rev normal around 4m for Q4
3) Plan for Big 4 auditor in 2011.
4) Guidance for 2011 will be in next several months(?) rough guidance is 30%.
5) Addressed low interest issue(raised by shorties). Only 25% real money sitting in the bank to collect low national rate.
6) Pharmaceutical companies including BSMP will not be impacted by high inflation etc.
Anyone hear differently ? PPS should recover some...
Here are some Conference Call highlights:
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_C/threadview?m=te&bn=75303&tid=1313&mid=1313&tof=1&frt=2#1313
- CCGY anticipates adjusted Q4 EPS of $.08 and FY 2010 adjusted EPS of $.23.
- CCGY anticipates revenues of $17.3 million for Q4 and $58+ million for FY 2010.
- The CFO of CCGY stated they are well aware of the diesel shortage/problem in China and plan to gear their facilities to take advantage of the increase in demand for diesel products during Q4 and into 2011 as they see fit. Their current facilities are able to smoothly and quickly transition from production of specialty chemical to bio-diesel and vice versa as needed.
- CFO stated that the move from the old plant to the new plant helped them consolidate and significantly reduced their administrative expenses/fees.
- CFO stated that he had several interviews with officials in regards to uplisting. They plan to uplist to the AMEX or NASDAQ. They currently do not plan to do a reverse split as they state they are confident that their continued performance will continue to show in an increase in PPS and a reverse split will not be needed. CFO noted that they will update shareholders in the next several weeks as to the progress of the uplisting process.
Assets - that's a good start to my understanding.eom
rich
Currency gains: To be clear, this is a gain on the companies assets and not on the net income?
rich
SKBI - took out $3M loan *fist pump* - I'm easily pleased. Receivables were down even though sales were up so that plan seems to be working. The pre-paid is where the cash is going but they claim this will drop off in Q4 (Less revenues in H1 of 2011).
"To improve our cash positions and take advantage of low cost bank financing in China, the Company was also able to secure a low interest $3.0 million USD line of credit recently, and took out a short term loan facility for $0.7 million in China. Skystar is paying annual interest rates of 6.3% and 7.2% on these short term loans respectively.
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=45257040&symbol=SKBI
rich
BSPM - obviously, there's a risk here. They have re-iterated which would mean Q4 is going to be Reve 29M and NI 6.8M. If they hit that we're off to the races. It's a trust issue - but at least you can see that the accounts policy is showing more cash flow now and they have given some transparency into October's ordering.
rich
BSPM - reiterates their guidance. Sounds like they changed terms of the Hep B drug - which resulted in lower orders, initially, but much improved cash flow. They claim that ordering improved end of Q3 and that continued into October.... interesting.
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/biostar-pharmaceuticals-inc-reports-third-quarter-revenue-increase-of-297-to-202-million-108143374.html
rich
Diesel shortage stops traffic on China expressway
Dunno if we've seen this one...
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-11/12/content_11544018.htm
rich
That may of been a factor but it's the rolling blackouts that is the driving force for this. A large new demand and little extra supply. The whole situation is a massive administrative mistake.
rich
LPH is offering insurance to their oil using customers i.e. business continuity. The best time to sell insurance is just after a disaster. So, this is going to be really good time for LPH going forward - whatever this and next quarters sales.
I agree we might be ahead of ourselves with expectation to near term additional earnings but this is just a bonus. As you say it all depends on what oil supplies are available in these tight times. Let's hope they have good contacts.
rich
LPH - this is going underline how important LPH's facility is to the running of a business.
Assuming LPH can keep the supply coming (which we don't know for sure) then it shows how important it is to have a large tank to supply your clients from. Clients are going to be very grateful *if* they can keep it coming.
Other towns are going to wish they had a storage facility. Think LPH has to just open a facility and customers are going to be queuing up.
LPH is going to add many new customers - some may not come back after the crisis but some will.
rich
Diesel - this is, of course, utter madness. Achieving nothing but managing to harm the economy as a by-product of nothing.
rich
CELM - asked Mr Fong how the compensation was going to be worked out... replied.
total charge is about 5.5M, of which 2.87M is charged for 2010, the rest will be spread out in 2011 and 2012
rich
CNYD - yup they said that there was a small impact. I was surprised by the PR which implied it was fairly minor. Clearly they should have given a warning.
rich
CNYD - had to be the floods - it's a one off event but by the sounds of it will have an effect into Q4. Oh well, had a small position for the long haul - might be even longer now
Our revenue from tourism decreased by approximately $4.21 million or approximately 76%, from approximately $5.51 million for the three months ended approximately September 30, 2009 to approximately $1.30 million for the same period in 2010. The decrease was primarily attributable to the significant decrease in revenue generated from the Great Golden Lake due to the adverse impact of the southern China floods in June & July of 2010, from approximately $4.89 million for the three months ended September, 2009 to approximately $0.52 million for the three months ended September 30, 2010. The Golden Lake, Zhuang Rock, Louhan Mountain and Taining Old Town were timely reopened to the public after the floods, and recently we have sent a request to the local government seeking their approval for us to re-open the Shangqing River to the public in the second half of November 2010, which is currently being reviewed by the Taining government. Pending the approval from the Taining government, we will continue our engagement in restoring the Shangqing River attraction area, including its natural resources, to its original condition prior to the floods. There is no assurance that the Taining government will give us approval to re-open the Shangqing River attraction to the public in the second half of November 2010 or a short period thereafter,
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1091325/000121390010004583/f10q0910_chinayida.htm
rich
CELM - some people don't count stock based compensation. My thinking is how much is recurring and how much is a one off hit? They started the stock based compensation this quarter so no surprise it's a big hit - I suspect a lot of it is one off. While in Q4 it's 0.4M. So what's going to be happening going forward?
I'll email Dexter and hope he gets back to me. He's going to be busy I guess today.
rich
CELM - yup, emailed Dexter last night and he's sent a correction PR.
rich
CELM - I think the PR has a mistake in FY non-cash charge which is $2.8M not $28.7M. I've emailed Dexter and IR and see what response I get.
Not following the PR's numbers either yet (am tired so who knows). The Low NI of 14,900,000 and High NI 15,300,000 - if you add the $2.8M non-cash charge you get 17.7M to 18.1M. The previous estimate NI was 17.1M to 18.5M. So they are honing in their FY estimate of around 0.85 - 0.87 from 0.82 - 0.89 - using O/S 20,744,743.
Note: I made a mistake on my spreadsheet and had 17.1M to 19.8M - which would have pushed up my NI. It should have been 17.1M to 18.5M apologies to anyone misled by that - there might be a good reason for that but can't remember but obviously should have only been quoting management estimates unless clearly stated otherwise. I will review this again tomorrow it's late in the UK.
rich
CELM - after hours and CC in the morning. That's how you do it. Let the market have a nose around ready for some questions the following day.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-Electric-Motor-Inc-prnews-2138525971.html?x=0&.v=1
rich
BORN: New Hit-piece
New from little...
http://seekingalpha.com/article/236141-china-new-borun-investors-race-to-exit-as-concerns-mount?source=email_watchlist
rich
CNAM - well it ain't good and in fact will be pretty poor day. But we've seen many companies that the PRC has stomped on. CGPI had it's graveyard closed down a couple of years ago (imagine if we were holding onto them!), many companies were shut down during the Olympics.
Anyway, your right their word means nothing now. They have to show some results before the PPS will appreciate - though I have sympathy for their situation.
rich
(small position that will get smaller today )
I hope no one was paid for that advice! It would have been better to have said nothing.
They need to host an IR day with them, their clients, and industry experts in the same room for analysts to question.
rich
It was a weak response.
MW have gone for the "bring an industry expert in" method to refute management - similar to BORN's attack. It will be interesting to follow.
rich
(no position but I have RINO as a CAPS pick )
RINO - well we know what happened when ONP got an accounting firm to do external review (let alone a fluffy internal) - got to think PPS will be under pressure.
My other thought is... those institutional investors that gave RINO millions of dollars did they really not do more DD?
rich
Morgan Stanley says buy China equities
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2010-11/11/content_11534145.htm
rich
Yuan appreciating just before the meeting - <cynicism> well who would have thunk?</cynicism>
rich
CCME Estimated Net Income vs Actual Net Income
I'm looking at CCME's Net Incomes estimates vs the actual results.
Looking at the 3 FY Net Income estimates given with each quarters results. The first column is the actual aggregated NI (AggNI) to that point in the year. The second column is what management estimated for the rest of the year (EstNI). The third column is simply find the average estimated NI for the rest of the year(AVGEstNI). Fourth Column is the remaining quarters (RQ).
When..AggNI(M)..EstNI(M)......AvgEstNI(M).....RQ
Q1......18.........71-75................73.................3
Q2......47.........82-85................84.................2
Q3......78........100-104..............102.................1
Now, if we take the AvgEstNI and subtract the AggNI and divide all this by the remaining quarters in the year (RQ) we can get an idea of how much Net Income they are expecting in each of the remaing quarters (EstPerQNI).
When...EstPerQNI.........
Q1......18..((73-18)/3)..
Q2......19..((84-47)/2)..
Q3......24..((102-78)/1).
So, while the company has been estimating between 18 - 19M, however, the actual average quarterly NI in Q2 and Q3 has been 30M. In other words they have beaten management estimates by approximately 60%. It goes without saying that this is conservative to the point of irrelevance.
The business is not particularly cyclical - a bit less in Q1 and a bit more in Q4. The business is a monopoly - so no competitors cramping the margins and the buses are contracted and will increase in Q4. In other words I find it difficult to see why then won't be getting 30M and perhaps more.
The company is cheap under any metric even if they only do 24M in Q4 but recent history suggests that CCME's management are shooting low. I feel like I'm stating the obvious here but sometimes I feel compelled to state it.
rich
Q1 http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=42823504
Q2 http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=44000349
Q3 http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=45125372
CCME Estimated Net Income vs Actual Net Income
I'm looking at CCME's Net Incomes estimates vs the actual results.
Looking at the 3 FY Net Income estimates given with each quarters results. The first column is the actual aggregated NI (AggNI) to that point in the year. The second column is what management estimated for the rest of the year (EstNI). The third column is simply find the average estimated NI for the rest of the year(AVGEstNI). Fourth Column is the remaining quarters (RQ).
When..AggNI(M)..EstNI(M)......AvgEstNI(M).....RQ
Q1......18.........71-75................73.................3
Q2......47.........82-85................84.................2
Q3......78........100-104..............102.................1
Now, if we take the AvgEstNI and subtract the AggNI and divide all this by the remaining quarters in the year (RQ) we can get an idea of how much Net Income they are expecting in each of the remaing quarters (EstPerQNI). However, the actual average quarterly NI in Q2 and Q3 has been 30M.
When...EstPerQNI.........
Q1......18..((73-18)/3)..
Q2......19..((84-47)/2)..
Q3......24..((102-78)/1).
So, while the company has been estimating between 18 - 19M they have been averaging 30M - so they have beaten management estimates by approximately 60%. It goes without saying that this is conservative to the point of irrelevance.
The business is not particularly cyclical - a bit less in Q1 and a bit more in Q4. The business is a monopoly - so no competitors cramping the margins and the buses are contracted and will increase in Q4. In other words I find it difficult to see why then won't be getting 30M and perhaps more.
The company is cheap under any metric even if they only do 24M in Q4 but recent history suggests that CCME's management are shooting low. I feel like I'm stating the obvious here but sometimes I feel compelled to state it.
rich
CCME - should say, as most know, I don't estimate what I think the number is going to be. More what I think the minimum the company is going to do - on top of that is just gravy. Anyway....
rich
Not impressed by the muddywaters article then?
rich