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Ok. Should head back up to resistance, maybe even 1572. Looks like this ST downtrend should last into Fed Nov. 1.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/#calendars
So far no catapault off 1560 back to 1567-1570. Steve, let us know if you get cotl?
LOL. Thanks. We may move up into eod now, that was a strong down.
Took profit on 10% of short. A token move as looks like 1550 gets hit today or tomorrow.
Remember Silence of the Lambs?
Just curious...Is there a criteria for completion of the 4 of 3?
Ndx/Dow. Makes me nervous when it looks like it wants to drive that upper band. The last couple times in this position it reversed to the lower. Bands are widening, I think if it was going up they would be narrowing. Price line is in a megaphone pattern which suggests volatility and a trip to the lower band. Agree/disagree?
As posted earlier held my gains this week but won't last another week short w/o rotation out of tech. Any thought of how Opex affected tech or not?
I guess I've been thinking they loaded up on stock to take the puts out and that gets unwinded Mon.
Already looking like a decent rally off the lows. Can't figure out the tech relative strength though.
15.89 YTD. .33 week.
Futes 8 1/2 above fair value. I doubt the cash market follows through ahead of the weekend. Doubling short.
I'll be unwinding this trade early next week.
Yep, I too was thinking 1484. If it goes...very bad for the Bulls.
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=36759&u=gizmo&a=Gizmo%27s%20Charts&id=1154
Order in for 100/200 Short.
Ryvnx still in an uptrend. The red box is the area I origionally was looking for a buy in. Now I'm scared. Only kidding <ggg>. Depending how futures are trading in the am before work I'd like to start a position. I expect that uptrend line may get tested but then again maybe not.
Inverted chart. Looks like eventually back to 1600+. But first a trip to 1550. If we get an extension tomm/Fri a decent selling opp.
We obviously didn't go low enough to generate fear.
That size rally, from low to high was unexpected. I suspect excessive shorting. The degree of sharpness reminds me of the bear market rallies.
That sucks. What was the excuse to rally?
Short squeeze/Opex I think. Now that they got the puts out of the money we won't tank again untill the BS is unwound Mon.
Massive candle today up into the zone I wanted to short. I will most likely add a SS before Friday close.
TECHNICAL MARKET INSIGHT • From S&P
By Mark Arbeter
Time to Stay on the Sidelines
Key indicators are very close to issuing major long-term sell signals
The stock market accelerated to the downside early last week, moving very close to key intermediate-term support before stabilizing towards the end of the week. From a shorter-term perspective, the market is extremely oversold on many measures, including price, volume and internal measurements, and we believe a rally could occur at any time. However, we think there is little evidence that a substantial low has been put in for the intermediate term, so we would remain safely on the sidelines.
The major indexes have suffered some major technical damage and have moved quickly away from their recent cyclical highs in August. At its intraday low on Thursday, Oct. 13, of 1168.20, the S&P 500 index had dropped 6.2% from its closing high of 1245.04 on Aug. 3. The Nasdaq composite index, at its low on Thursday of 2025.58, had fallen 192.57 points or 8.7% from its closing high of 2218.15 on Aug. 2. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX.X ) was 10.9% off its August highs, while the Oil Service Index (OSX.X ) was down almost 15% during the week and the Housing Index (HGX.X ) was off over 100 points or 17.3% from its late July closing high.
The carnage has not missed the small cap arena, as the Russell 2000 was down as much as 10.7% from its early August closing high. The weakness in the market has come primarily from leadership areas, not a good sign in our view.
Our technical work indicates that a bear market began earlier this year, which has been a very slowly evolving process, and that many indexes are now in their initial downward phase. Historically, market tops have taken time to play out. All stocks, industries and indexes typically do not peak at the same time. As you will note, many of the above mentioned indexes peaked during the summer months. However, the Dow Jones Industrials and the Dow Jones Transportation indexes topped out way back in March, while the Philadelphia Bank Index peaked all the way back in December, 2004. These nonconfirmations, where some indexes peak earlier than others, are part of the process of a bull market top and represent one of the many characteristics of a late-stage bull market.
There has been quite a bit of internal deterioration during the last year and it is quite common that many technical indicators crest well before the major indexes start to decline, sometimes giving lead times of 12 to 18 months. For instance, the annual rate-of-change or ROC on the S&P 500 during the cyclical bull market posted its maximum level of 36% in February, 2004. Since that time, the S&P 500 has put in higher price highs while the annual ROC has failed to come close to the February, 2004, peak. This long-term indicator is one of the many that has traced out a clear negative divergence with respect to price strength.
The percent of NYSE stocks above their respective 30-week moving averages, which is another measure of price momentum, climaxed in January, 2004. This indicator has also put in a series of lower highs since that point, despite new price highs by the index. This is another example of a longer-term negative divergence. The percentage of NYSE stocks at 52-week highs hit its crest of 18.2% way back in December, 2003, indicating fewer and fewer stocks are benefiting from the indexes new highs over the past two years.
While we will admit that the transition from a bull market to a bear market has been difficult to call on an historic basis, other long-term indicators are very close to issuing major long-term sell signals. Because these signals are very long term in nature, they occur very infrequently, but are extremely important from our perspective. The monthly moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) based on the price action of the S&P 500 is very close to crossing its signal line and therefore, near a major sell signal. The monthly MACD has been on a buy signal since May, 2003. The last sell signal from this momentum indicator occurred in February, 2000, near the top of the bull market.
The monthly stochastic oscillator is also very close to going bearish after getting extremely overbought earlier this year. Like the MACD, the monthly stochastic oscillator has been on a buy signal since early in 2003. The last sell signal from this indicator was late in 2000. To confirm the signals given by these two long-term momentum indicators, we combine them with the super long-term exponential moving average of 20 months. Like the above indicators, very few signals are generated from this moving average. Currently, the 20-month exponential moving average is sitting at 1163, not far from the price of the S&P 500. A break below this key long-term average would be the first sell signal from this average since November, 2000. The S&P 500 has been trading above the 20-month since July, 2003.
Bond yields moved higher for the third straight week, with the 10-year Treasury moving to 4.53% on an intraday basis Friday, its highest yield since early April. The 10-year treasury broke above the August highs this week, and since early June, has traced out a series of higher highs and higher lows. The next area of support for the 10-year is at 4.55%. This is from a trendline drawn off the yield highs from May, 2004, and March, 2005. There is also chart support, from the highs in March, in the 4.5% to 4.7% range.
Short-term interest rates also continued higher, indicating to us that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue to raise rates into at least early next year. The 1-year Treasury bill has moved above 4%, and has risen steadily since March 2004. The yield on the 1-year is at its highest rate since April, 2001. In our view, there is added pressure on the stock market with both short and long-term rates finally rising together.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Arbeter, a chartered market technician, is chief technical strategist for Standard & Poor's
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/oct2005/pi20051017_9537_pi045.htm
I'm looking for 1560-1570 to start shorts again.
Not to mention much support below and much resistance just above.
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=36759&u=gizmo&a=Gizmo's%20Charts&id=1154
See what you mean,... if Bear market rules apply. Particularly the weekly is not oversold.
True, no way to know. btw those here play the market in both directions and the majority were long Thur/Fri. for nice gains as well as having made gains on the decline.
The only way to fly.
In the green yet?
Need to find my waders. It's really getting deep over here.
Inconclusive, but does offer the assurance of a retest. If we get a lower low in the index with a positive divergence in this indicator and others closing shorts would be wise.
I'm not bullish here but don't relish being hurt on shorts either <g>. Some caution is warranted.
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=36759&u=gizmo&a=Gizmo%27s%20Charts&id=1154
The pattern looks like a bullish ascending triangle.
http://www.chartpatterns.com/ascendingtriangles.htm
Further to that.
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=36759&u=gizmo&a=Gizmo%27s%20Charts&id=1154
The pattern looks like a bullish ascending triangle.
http://www.chartpatterns.com/ascendingtriangles.htm
No guarantees but I think that would do it and the sell in May crowd will be returning to the market soon so the decline is running out of time. You may want to be buying before the funds deploy their cash to prop the market the last couple days of the month.
Too much uncertainty in the market for a V bottom. It should be more complex than that.
Next year I think we generally drop into a 4 year cycle low possibly Sept/Oct.
1484.2 beckons after this 4 completes.
That resistance from 1550-1554 needs to be respected along with 1569. Market has some serious work coming up. No V bottom here IMO...more complex than that so I am in agreement.
I'm at up 15.56% Ytd. Pretty good month so far. I think generally down into month end window dressing period. Then up.
I'm in capital preservation mode here.
Opex next Friday...?!
They always sell Intel reports.
Agree some extension possible. Not worth the risk given the consistent selling pressure.
No need to wait... out to cash.
RSI5 at 45.5
Still have 15 minutes but leaning to cash.