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thanks for pointing that out!
Lol. Now that's a good one.
The "waiting" part would be tough - as I recall Mark Douglas said the way to learn to trade is to start with a system that trades often and has a decent winning % - it builds confidence and experience with the statistical nature of trading. Psychologically most folks are more geared for bowling than baseball. :)
Every major trend speculator...
Well, I guess that's why I don't take advice from those guys. ;) Since I don't know the details of their records I won't comment on them. However, if you have a trend-following trading system where the drawdown exceeds the return I would question how much it's worth. And a system would have to be very productive if it's carrying a 50% drawdown.
The past couple of years in US equities have been brutal for trending systems
Rather than brutal I would say less productive - the trend followers I know have positive returns for these years but not as good as years where there's been a long distinctive trend. I don't know anything about the specific folks you mention, but anyone with a 50% drawdown should not be in the business of giving advice. (Unless of course they have annual returns greater than 100%! :) )
I'm always surprised at how focussed folks are on return but not caring how they get there (drawdown).
MFB, if you could program in a reasonable stop loss I think you'd have a chance of pulling the return above the max drawdown.
It failed to outperform buy&hold?
Well, return isn't everything - look at the max drawdown: %50 for b&h (ouch!) vs %10 for the system.
Having said that a 7% return with a 10% max drawdown is not that hot. One can do a lot better (especially if all you do is backtest ;) ).
just asking for it if you ask me
I doubt it - the horse probably said neigh.
This may be a stupid question, but why the 2 year and not the 3 month? (Earlier warning with 2 year?)
ajtj, ST Yield is yield for 3 Month T-Bills ($IRX).
ajtj, you may already know this but you can see the yield curve alongside the spx graphically here, and tune in whatever date you like:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/YieldCurve.html
By any chance do you live in Stepford?
RUT may have completed enough sideways/down action to bring it to the bottom of a rising channel:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$rut,uu[r,a]daclyyay[pd20,2!c13!c50!b100!b200!f][vc60][i...
OT I felt for McNabb & agree that he really needs to take some time off & heal. It's too bad that it will now come after such a tough loss.
OT Hey max, sorry about those iggles, I have to say that Dallas (my home team) had one of the absolute luckiest weekends of the year. Not just the last minute undeserved win over Philly, but the losses by the Giants and the Redskins to teams they should have beaten easily. That Giants game with Minnesota was truly bizarre.
Interesting survey!
Here's mine
Economic Left/Right: -5.75
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -3.54
More about those hats here:
http://zapatopi.net/afdb/
I always wear mine when watching CNBC. ggg
max, there's a site for you, just so you can keep up with maria (& others) day by day... ggg
http://www.kapturedforyou.com/
I think John Mauldin's latest weekly is a bit saner:
The Arab Street Erupts: Why Paris and Why Now?
http://www.investorsinsight.com/otb_va_print.aspx?EditionID=221
Trivia question: of the digits 1 thru 9, which one appears most often in financial statements?
You mean in 1099s? That would be 9.
Validation? Hey, I think it makes 2 weeks seem waaay too short.
Yes, I liked the guy up until it was obvious he was a liar....,
My goodness, do you know any successful politician who isn't a liar? I just take it for granted.
When he was running for President John Connally told a story that had George Washington really growing up in Texas. One day George cut down his daddy's favorite mesquite tree in the backyard. When asked about it he told his daddy that he couldn't tell a lie, that it was he who chopped the tree down. His daddy responded, "George, pack your bags, I'm sending you out East. If you can't tell a lie you'll never make it in Texas!"
Well, that's how I see politics in general - it's a liar's profession, and you won't make it if you're not a good liar.
max, thanks for pointing this out. For the NDX I was going off this chart which I now know doesn't show the intraday high correctly on the last stick:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[g,a]dacayyay[pd20,2!c13!c50!b100!b200!f][vc60][i....
so that leaves the 1635.7 high of 12/04 as last resistance (agreeing with you) and also leaves Friday's intraday high as 1631.79 per Yahoo, 1631.80 per Scottrade - I'm still 3 points lower than you there(??) and that leaves me still ~3 pts lower than the Dec 04 high.
In edit: and as a result still 3 pts shy of a double top if my figures for NDX intraday high are correct.
Overhead resistance?
NDX closed at 1628.3, less than a point from the August high of 1628.6. Double top?
RUT closed right on the downtrend line determined by the Sept. & Oct. highs (682 & 674):
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$rut,uu[r,a]daclyyay[pd20,2!c13!c50!b100!b200!f][vc60][i...
The RUT daily also looks like it could use a drop to fall out of its wedge and form a decent up-channel.
Good for you, ajtj.
Over the last week or so I've come close to un-bookmarking this thread because the noise level was so high. Since I don't really want to do that I'm glad to see this happen.
There's really a lot of good folks that make excellent posts here when they're not being shot at. Thanks again.
Approval ratings: Dubya vs. Clinton vs. Nixon
http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/files/nixon-clinton-bush.htm
Like I said, believe what you like, it really makes no difference to me. It's not hard to figure out who created "Jeff" as an alternate persona...from where Jeff appeared, when he disappeared, how the threads on iHub bifurcated...
So why did you do it, WLD?
I lurked on SI from waaaay before Jeff's thread was started and remember his thread and WLD's subsequent thread (people that jeff doesn't like, or something like that). There's no way that I would ever consider that today's Steve could be be Jeff of the PS & DBs thread, it's just ridiculous.
Steve was quite open about the transition of his name from Jeff Lillie to "was Jeff now Steve" to Steve, there's really nothing mysterious there.
Emails from Brownie at the height of the Katrina crisis:
http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2005/images/11/03/brown.emails.pdf
Reading just the first one left me totally disgusted.
If there's a rise it could be a kiss-back to the rising sr line:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$rut,uu[g,a]eaclynay[pc9!c13!c20!d20,2!c50!c200!b50!b200...
I guess I'm never really confident about H&S, and especially with the recent ups-and-downs, but thought I'd point it out.
OT B, most people here are looking for information. Your posts contain no information and belong to yahoo.
chainik, you hit the nail on the head.
tea, I think you're dealing with someone who will beat his chest if you lose but claim he's not committed if he loses. One of those "heads I win, tails you lose" kind of deals. Just ignore him.
possible inverse H&S on the rut
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$rut,uu[g,a]eaclynay[pc9!c13!c20!d20,2!c50!c200!b50!b200...
triple "top" on the rut ~643 suggests more up ahead.
Tonight's Drama: THE MALTESE FALCON
Cast of Characters
Sam Spade: George Bush
Kasper Gutman (the "fat man"): Karl Rove
Wilmer (the "gunsel"): Scooter Libby
Johnny Cairo: Harriet Miers
SPADE: We'll come to the money later. There's another thing to be taken care of first. We've got to have a "fall guy." The police have to have a victim. Somebody they can stick...
GUTMAN: Come, come, Mr. Spade. You can't expect us to believe at this late date you are the least afraid of the police. Or that you're not able to handle--
SPADE: I'm up to my neck, Gutman. I've got to come through with somebody, a victim, when the time comes. If I don't, I'll be it. Let's give 'em the gunsel. Anyway,he's made to order for the part. Let's turn him over to the cops.
It's almost time for EOM Dow play...
What I am saying is there is no correlation between what happens over the next X hours (days, weeks, months) with what happened over the past Y hours (days, weeks, months).
What about market patterns that repeat? I'm thinking about seasonality plays, presidential cycles, or (even simpler) end-of-month index plays. These are independent events. They repeat. Would it not be more profitable to take advantage of these patterns then to pick a "buy" date at random?
Unfortunately, virtually nothing does (have predictive value).
Is what you're trying to say that no set of circumstances guarantees an outcome, but may indicate the probabilty of an outcome?
...as long as you keep your wings clipped...
Wings clipped = using good risk management? Again trying to understand your point.
If there were a magic bullet, the wall street propellorheads with their massive arsenal of supercomputer would find and exploit it long before it'll be visible on StockCharts.com.
I have no clue what the boys with the big boxes are doing but I'll bet they sure have more sophisticated methods that I use!