Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Long CVH 30.75 several days ago as noted on the New CS Board. Cycle projection has 30.10 as short term low, and current price of 30.25 is excellent entry, with stop under 29.
Oddlot
Maripishu re 1min OBV trend sys: near short
Hi. Please make one change and repost. Add to the 1min OBV indicator a simple MA(15). The purpose is to slow down the signal and filter out short term noise. If the range is broken by the 1min print but not by the 15min SMA, then: no signal, AND the range reference point does not change for several days. The prior range ref point (3.5 days extreme) remains tje trigger.
The 1min OBV was on the low, but the SMA had not reached the trigger. We are near a new short, or a resumption of uptrend.
Oddlot
Surfcat re climbing rates>>short equities?
haha re DZZ: potential to 5.18
If GLD falls to bottom of channel (see prior post) at approx 150, that would equate to a drop of 12% or a gain in DZZ of 23-24%. That would be a DZZ price of 5.18. No guarantees, of course.
Oddlot
maripishu re 18 month harmonics.
The 18 month cycle chart needs some annotation in order to be useful. This chart attempts to provide some with the explanatory text.
The moving average is a digital filter, and while not perfect, provides a way to reduce/eliminate cycles with wavelengths shorter than the length of the MA. The track of the MA shows the sum of all cyclic movement with wavelengths considerably longer than the MA.
The MA79 shows that all LT cycles "the LT trend" is up. The MA19 is used by me to show when the 78 week cycle has bottomed, by drawing the TL parallel to that MA. In sequence, the TL for MA19 will be broken presumably near the bottom of the channel inclosing the 78 week cycle. Next, the halfwave MA39 will change direction when the price has moved up 50% of the total upward move, allowing a projection of the top. And last, the MA19 will tighten up against the price action and provide a signal, when violated, that the 78 week cycle has topped.
The MA39 is flattening, and will probably turn up in the near future. The calculated objective will probably exceed SPY 140. Prices in the middle of the channel tend to move the fastest, so it is feasible that we could see the top of the channel by the next major Bradley turn date of 3/16.
haha11: re SMN if above 14.70, I would probably add to long from 14.18.
The RSI was huge in basic materials, and led me to this bearish position. It is a bottom-pick, yes, but with huge SPY obv move this AM it is evident that others are also queasy at this altitude.
Good trades.
Oddlot
SPY short term high?
The quarterwave TL for the 5 day cycle has been decisively broken, and the CCIs for 5 and 10 day cycles are headed down. Price has not cracked yet, but that should be next.
Oddlot
CVH SMN
Long CVH 30.75 with stop st 28.73; good financials, low PE and low P/sales. Has given some nf signals, but other signals pending. Strong support near 29.
SMN: basic matls very overbought. Will buy on stop 14.66 today only.
Oddlot
SPY game plan
The safest way to buy a pullback is to let it pullback and then turn up. The shortest cycle that I use for this is the 5+ day, and the implementation is to use a trendline parallel to the 1/4 wave MA, in this case 10min MA53. A violation of the TL says the short term top is in, and subsequently a violation of highs or the new TL would say that the bottom of the turn is in, with defined risk.
SPY game plan
SPY is in an uptrend, and the plan is to buy a pullback. The safest way to do that is wait for the pullback and then buy the turn up. The shortest trading cycle, for me, is the 5-7day cycle. The method for spotting the turns is the trendline parallel to the 1/4 wave MA, which I will call the 10min MA53. First we break the TL, then when either new highs or a new trendline can be drawn, violation says the turn is in and the risk point is defined.
GLD, basic materials
Holding DZZ from 4.26, and may add over 4.36.
Criteria for grossly overbought, including rsi>70 brings out some possibilities including basic materials. Look at SMN, may buy over 14.65.
Oddlot
GLD, basic materials
Holding DZZ from 4.26, may add above 4.36.
Overbought criteria including rsi>70 brings out interesting possibilities. Looking hard at basic materials, and SMN above 14.67.
Oddlot
GLD DZZ long DZZ 4.26. Leveraged inverse gold etf.
Oddlot
GLD DZZ long DZZ 4.26 with stop 3.99
Maripishu re OBV system
We have new highs in 1min OBV. Personally flat, looking for pullback to enter on long side.
Oddlot
SPY hit my stops. Out of all SDS 17.83
Oddlot
SPY hit my stop. Out of all SDS 17.83.
Oddlot
SPY SDS sold half of position at 17.24 for a break even. Had to large a postiton in front of the jobs report.
SPY SDS sold half of SDS at 17.24. Exposure was too big in front of the jobs report. Broke even after commish.
tja1 re scatter
This board has quite a few of all. Another active one with Ki, ziko, and the existing IH crowd who are good, is BT's Timing Board. If you find another, let me know.
Oddlot
SDS Just added at 17.19 with tight stops
Smoothie re changing gears.
Damn, I'll have to buy smaller lots, LOL. Just added to SDS at 17.19 with tight stops.
Oddlot
Ziko re 1min chart.
As you know, I am a fan of 1-10 min charts because the longer term indicators can be adapted to the faster time frames by increasing the parameters, and signals become realtime instead of end-of-day. I dont find much in cyclically based patterns with wavelengths under 2.5-3.5 days, and 1min charts dont have the computing capacity to deal with 3 days, as the stockchart parameter maximum is approx 600. The visual chart will extend much further. I use 1minute charts only for the OBV but visually monitor the action.
Oddlot
Smoothie re macro resistance.
Good trade. I hope to hold my shorts down to 1270 area, which is not all that far. But with all the noise and media hype it will seem like a great moral victory.
Oddlot
Slammer re "top"
It has to do with time horizon. My LT obj with no time point is SPY 140. The cyclic methods called for a tentative top at SPX 1137, slightly under current high. The pattern of nominal 13 weeks is long standing, and relevant trendlines were broken.
I have stops SPY above 132.20 and 134.20. It is possible that we are both right.
Oddlot
BMan re QE
Are you expecting/seeing QE from USA or Euroland? Is this based on media articles or stats?
Oddlot
13 week top is in!
See prior post for chart. We have two closes under the TL, and both reflect a lower open and a recovery from the lows, but still consecutive lower closes.
The CCI20 have a sell signal for the 13 week cycle, and today the CCI40 gave one for the 26 week cycle.
Holding bearish position in SDS, and will add on next short term failure.
Oddlot
SPY SSO SDS reversed to short.
Holding SDS from 17.80 with adds at 17.58.
A 13 week high is due and mkt action gave confirmation last week. The CCI20 is geared to the 65 day period, and it gave a sell signal; RSI topped 70; and the close-only TL parallel to the quarterlength MA17 was also broken at end of week. While my LT target remains SPY 140, I expect a decline to perhaps 126 SPY.
Oddlot
SPY SDS long SDS earlier 17.80; added 1/2 unit SDS at 17.58, and will buy more a little lower.
Oddlot
SPY SSO SDS closed long SSO and went short SDS in premkt 17.80
SPY and sector comments
Holding long SSO, with LT obj of SPY 140, but expecting a top near here and a decline first.
SPY rsi exceeded 70 and followed with a sell from CCI20. A trendline at approx 131 was spared, but a close-only line was broken. A top in the 13 week cycle is due, and the trendline break says it is probably in. I would consider 130.85 for a reversal stop, and add more shorts under 130.35. The OBV system is still long, but would flip with strong selling.
XLB basic materials closed 37.18; rsi 72.32; near enough to obj to close out if long.
XLE energy 71.48, rsi 55.97; CCI sell signals given in all cyclic frameworks. TL approx 70.50.
XLF 14.13 rsi 65.28; rsi almost made 70; sell signal from CCI20 (78.3), but others not given yet but TL broken and recovered slightly Friday. 13.90 would be a good point for enter-on-stop.
The rest of sectors are similar, the breakdown points follow:
XLI 36.29 close.
XLK 26.75 close
XLP 32.00 close
XLU 34.00 close
XLV 35.50 close
Good trades!
Oddlot
BT: everything seems ready to reverse. Another, which I can not post because of dsl problems, is IWO vs XLP (smaller growth.vs.staples) which has hit the daily BB100 channel. If the dollar rallies, gold etc falls, then growth should fall.
Oddlot
BT re 13 week cycle.
Here is what I would do, and if I and my computer were together I would show you.
Plot a MA with length 1/4 of cycle, in this case 17 days. Draw a trendline parallel to MA but just outside of the action of the last 17 days. Alternatively, through the close which is on the outside of the channel. Always make slope more negative; if MA starts to decelerate, do not change slope. Violation of TL is a great signal that cycle has bottomed
BT re dollar support.
The dollar appears to have the same cyclic characteristics as equities, and should find support +/- 13 weeks from the last low. This was week 13, so a turn should occur soon. The detrended channel shows a possible decline to 77.75, but it could go further or stop here. The safest approach would be to enter after the turn, using CCI20 and confirming trendlines to time the purchase. But hard assets and oil should come under renewed pressure soon.
Oddlot
BT> per your warning lines, at SPY 130.40-130.0 the muck is flying off of the fan blades, no?
Holding long SSO from today.
Oddlot