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Wow! The Alabama Realtors are telling the SCOTUS, IT'S TIME FOR THE SCOTUS TO GROW A PAIR OR BE PREPARED TO BE IGNORED IN THE FUTURE BY THE EXECUTIVE AND LEGISLATIVE BRANCHES...
"But those weeks have come with a significant
cost. Not only to the nation’s landlords, who are now coming up on a year of having
their properties unlawfully occupied under threat of six-figure criminal penalties.
But also to the reputation of all three branches of government. Unless this Court
vacates the stay—and does so promptly—Congress will know that it can legislate
through pressure campaigns and sit-ins rather than bicameralism and presentment,
the Executive Branch will know that it can disregard the views of a majority of
Justices with impunity, and this Court will know that its carefully considered rulings
will be roundly ignored. No amount of federal rental assistance justifies that cost."
"In light of that ruling, the Executive Branch repeatedly (and sensibly)
confirmed that it could not extend the moratorium and urged Congress to act instead.
But when the proponents of the moratorium lost in Congress, they mounted a
campaign to pressure the President to take matters into his own hands. While the
Executive Branch held firm for a few days and allowed the moratorium to lapse, it
ultimately caved to the political pressure on August 3, when the CDC announced that
its moratorium would be extended until October 3, 2021. In a remarkable display of
candor, the President acknowledged that “[t]he bulk of the constitutional scholarship”
concluded that this extension was “not likely to pass constitutional muster,” but that
“by the time it gets litigated, it will probably give some additional time while we’re
getting that $45 billion out to people who are, in fact, behind in the rent and don’t
have the money.” The White House, Remarks by President Biden on Fighting the
COVID-19 Pandemic (Aug. 3, 2021), https://bit.ly/3xszwea (August 3 Remarks)."
#SCOTUS has called for a response from the federal government, due by noon on Monday, August 23. https://t.co/Rwh1uHWPQk
— Amy Howe (@AHoweBlogger) August 20, 2021
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/appeals-court-won-t-block-biden-administration-s-eviction-moratorium-n1277329
"The landlords who challenged the moratorium can now ask the Supreme Court to put it on hold, and they face better odds there. At least five of the justices have indicated their skepticism that the CDC has the proper authority.
The landlords, led by the Alabama Association of Realtors, challenged the CDC's first moratorium as well as the latest one, issued Aug. 3. The Biden administration argued that the new version is substantially different."
“The entire housing market is on fire, across the board from homeownership to rental, from high-end to low-end, from coast to coast,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics. “It’s a basic need but it’s increasingly out of reach.”
Eviction bans also are playing a role in keeping the market tight, because about 6% of tenants are normally forced to vacate each year. Zandi estimates the country’s shortage of affordable rentals is the worst since at least the post-World War II period.
Developers are adding new supply. But in the short run, the squeeze will have economic consequences because workers can’t easily move for jobs and will have less to spend on things other than housing. Soaring rental costs also are a contributor to the Federal Reserve’s inflation expectations."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-18/housing-hunt-turns-to-desperation-with-record-rise-in-u-s-rents
More from Fed minutes yesterday, "Some participants commented on the housing
market and noted that ongoing rapid house price in-
creases reflected both demand and supply factors. Sev-
eral participants noted that the lack of evidence of dete-
riorating mortgage underwriting standards could miti-
gate risks associated with high housing valuations; a cou-
ple of other participants, however, expressed concern
that a home price reversal could pose risks to financial
stability."
From Fed minutes, yesterday: "Participants generally ex-
pected housing demand to remain strong but noted that
construction had been restrained by shortages of mate-
rials and other inputs and that home sales had been held
back by limited supplies of available homes."
"Freddie Mac has named Jerry Mauricio as its senior vice president and chief compliance officer, an appointment coming as the mortgage giant looks to become free of government conservatorship after more than 12 years.
McLean, Va.-based Freddie Mac, which backs mortgage loans, was effectively nationalized during the 2008 housing crisis and is facing the latest setback to its quest to exit government control after the Biden administration ousted Mark Calabria as director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency. He had given priority to returning Freddie Mac to private hands. The Biden administration has signaled it isn't in a hurry to privatize Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae.
Mr. Mauricio, who had been serving as the interim CCO of Freddie Mac since January, started his official role last month. He oversees Freddie Mac's compliance risk management program for its regulatory and conservatorship obligations. He manages about 45 people in the compliance department and is looking to grow the team, he said in an interview. He reports directly to Freddie Mac's chief executive."
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/freddie-macs-new-compliance-chief-on-lessons-learned-from-previous-crises-11629291602
"Between June 2020 YTD and June 2021 YTD, all 50 states and the District of Columbia saw growth in single-family permits issued."
https://eyeonhousing.org/2021/08/30617/
Continued strong spending on US homes at Home Depot last Quarter: "Craig Menear, chairman and CEO. "As a result of their efforts, we achieved a milestone of over $40 billion in quarterly sales for the first time in Company history. I would like to extend my sincere appreciation to our team, as well as our supplier and supply chain partners, as they continue to operate in this dynamic and challenging environment."
https://ir.homedepot.com/news-releases/2021/08-17-2021-110048938
Or "Why go through Congress for Appropriations?"
Would this fit on a cake: "$308,000,000,000.00"
HAPPY BIRTHDAY! https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/tg1684.aspx
"The agreements will replace the 10 percent dividend payments made to Treasury on its preferred stock investments in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with a quarterly sweep of every dollar of profit that each firm earns going forward."
Less than 12 months later..."Fannie Mae reported annual net income for 2013 of $84.0 billion, which includes the release of
the company’s valuation allowance against its deferred tax assets, and annual pre-tax income for
2013 of $38.6 billion."
"The FHFA’s policy, however, is not up for debate. And the change seems to be just the latest sign that the Biden administration is not afraid of using the GSEs as leverage to advance its housing agenda."
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/fannie-maes-rental-payment-change-worries-some/
"Landlord-tenant disputes can be bitter. Ms. Santucci's lawyer, Glenn Michaelson, has urged his client not to apply for rental-arrears funding available through New York's Emergency Rental Assistance Program. "The two women are mortal enemies," he says. "I'm not going to do you any favors in this situation. ... I'm not filling out paperwork to enable the landlady to get this ERAP." Ms. Morey's lawyer, Mindy Roman, says her client would be reluctant to accept such government funding because it could complicate legal efforts to evict Ms. Santucci.
Under a nationwide moratorium issued by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, landlords can face fines or jail time for evicting tenants who fall below an income threshold and cite Covid hardship for their failure to pay rent. Justice Brett Kavanaugh wrote in June that the CDC had "exceeded its existing statutory authority" with the moratorium, but he joined four colleagues to let the ban stand until it expired "in only a few weeks." The CDC extended the moratorium anyway, and on Friday a federal district judge declined to block it. The justices are likely to revisit the question."
From todays WSJ.
Ever been to a Landlord Tenant eviction proceeding at the courthouse?
In Cedar Point Nursery, the SCOTUS said last term that private property rights include the right to exclude others, while I understand the Cov 19 is a historical public health crisis, does it preclude the US Constitution from protecting the "evil landlords" property rights? Tough question and the majority of courts so far have said yes or delayed making these tough decisions...
"The value of the typical U.S. home is expected to end 2021 up 20.3% from the end of 2020."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zillow-july-2021-july-2022-120044900.html
The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other peoples money...
https://www.brainyquote.com/authors/margaret-thatcher-quotes
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/94-of-metro-areas-saw-double-digit-price-growth-in-second-quarter-of-2021
Key Highlights
The median sales price of single-family existing homes rose in 99% of measured metro areas in the second quarter of 2021 compared to one year ago, with double-digit price gains in 94% of markets.
The median sales price of single-family existing homes rose 22.9% to $357,900, an increase of $66,800 from one year ago.
Over a 3-year period, 46 markets had price gains of over $100,000.
The monthly mortgage payment on a typical existing single-family home rose to $1,215 and the income a family typically needed to afford an existing single-family home increased to $58,314.
WASHINGTON (August 12, 2021) – Continued low levels of housing inventory, combined with record-low mortgage rates spurring housing demand, have caused an increase in median sales prices for existing single-family homes in all but one of 183 measured markets during the second quarter of 2021. That is according to the National Association of Realtors®' latest quarterly report, which reveals that 94% of 183 metro areas also experienced double-digit price increases (89% in the first quarter of 2021).1
The median sales price of single-family existing homes rose 22.9% to $357,900, an increase of $66,800 from one year ago. All regions saw double-digit year-over-year price growth, which was led by the Northeast (21.8%), followed by the South (21.0%), West (20.9%), and Midwest (17.1%).
"Home price gains and the accompanying housing wealth accumulation have been spectacular over the past year, but are unlikely to be repeated in 2022," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist.
"There are signs of more supply reaching the market and some tapering of demand," he continued. "The housing market looks to move from 'super-hot' to 'warm' with markedly slower price gains."
That said, 12 metro areas did report price gains of over 30% from one year ago, eight of which are in the South and West regions, including Pittsfield, Mass. (46.5%); Austin-Round Rock, Texas (45.1%); Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, Fla. (41.9%); Boise City-Nampa, Idaho (41%); Barnstable, Mass. (37.8%); Boulder, Colo. (37.7%); Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, Conn. (37.1%); Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla. (35.6%); Tucson, Ariz. (32.6%); New York-Jersey City-White Plains, N.Y.-N.J. (32.5%); San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Calif. (31.9%); and Punta Gorda, Fla. (30.8%).
Yun notes that home prices are increasing sharply in the San Francisco and New York metro areas.
Over the past three years, the typical price gain on an existing single-family home totaled $89,900, with price gains in all 182 markets.2 In 46 out of 182 markets, homeowners typically experienced price gains of over $100,000. The largest price gains were in San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Calif. ($315,000); San Jose-Sunnyvale-Sta. Clara, Calif. ($294,000); Anaheim-Sta. Ana Irvine, Calif. ($279,500); Barnstable, Mass. ($220,600); and Boise-City-Nampa, Idaho ($206,300).
With home prices rising, the monthly mortgage payment on an existing single-family home financed with a 30-year fixed-rate loan and 20% down payment rose to $1,215. This is an increase of $196 from one year ago. The monthly mortgage payment grew even as the effective 30-year fixed mortgage rate3 decreased to 3.05% (3.29% one year ago). Among all homebuyers, the monthly mortgage payment as a share of the median family income rose to 16.5% in the second quarter of 2021 (14.0% one year ago).
"Housing affordability for first-time buyers is weakening," Yun explained. "Unfortunately, the benefits of historically-low interest rates are overwhelmed by home prices rising too fast, thereby requiring a higher income in order to become a homeowner."
Among first-time buyers, the mortgage payment on a 10% down payment loan jumped to 25% of income (21.2% one year ago). A mortgage is affordable if the payment amounts to no more than 25% of the family's income.4
In 17 metro areas, a family needed more than $100,000 to affordably pay a 10% down payment mortgage (14 metro areas in 2021 Q1. These metro areas are in California (San Jose-Sunnyvale-Sta. Clara, San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Anaheim-Sta. Ana-Irvine, San Diego-Carlsbad, Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale), Hawaii (Urban Honolulu), Colorado (Boulder, Denver-Aurora), Washington (Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue), Florida (Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island), Connecticut (Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk), New York (Nassau, New York-Newark-Jersey City), Massachusetts (Boston, Barnstable), District of Columbia-Virginia-Maryland-West Virginia (Washington-Arlington-Alexandria), and Oregon-Washington (Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro).
There were only 84 metro area markets in which a family needed less than $50,000 to afford a home, down from 104 markets in 2021 Q1. The most affordable markets – where a family can typically afford to buy a home financed with a 10% down payment with an income of $25,000 or less – are in the Rust Belt areas of Youngstown-Warren Boardman, Ohio ($24,401); Peoria, Illinois ($24,013); Cumberland, Maryland ($23,773); and Decatur, Illinois ($21,481).
"Housing supply will be critical in moderating the growing housing costs and rising rents," Yun said. "Any disincentive to produce more housing inventory, such as extending the eviction moratorium, will only worsen the current shortage," Yun said.
Yun noted that NAR has requested "expeditious release" of rental subsidy funds in order to assist those who may be facing eviction.
The National Association of Realtors® is America's largest trade association, representing more than 1.4 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
# # #
NOTE: NAR releases quarterly median single-family price data for approximately 183 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). In some cases, the MSA prices may not coincide with data released by state and local Realtor® associations. Any discrepancy may be due to differences in geographic coverage, product mix, and timing. In the event of discrepancies, Realtors® are advised that for business purposes, local data from their association may be more relevant.
Data tables for MSA home prices (single-family and condo) are posted at https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/metropolitan-median-area-prices-and-affordability. If insufficient data is reported for an MSA in a particular quarter, it is listed as N/A. For areas not covered in the tables, please contact the local association of Realtors®.
1 Areas are generally metropolitan statistical areas as defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget. NAR adheres to the OMB definitions, although in some areas an exact match is not possible from the available data. A list of counties included in MSA definitions is available at: https://www.census.gov/geographies/reference-files/time-series/demo/metro-micro/delineation-files.html(link is external).
Regional median home prices are from a separate sampling that includes rural areas and portions of some smaller metros that are not included in this report; the regional percentage changes do not necessarily parallel changes in the larger metro areas. The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to seasonality in buying patterns. Quarter-to-quarter comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns.
Median price measurement reflects the types of homes that are selling during the quarter and can be skewed at times by changes in the sales mix. For example, changes in the level of distressed sales, which are heavily discounted, can vary notably in given markets and may affect percentage comparisons. Annual price measures generally smooth out any quarterly swings.
NAR began tracking of metropolitan area median single-family home prices in 1979; the metro area condo price series dates back to 1989.
Because there is a concentration of condos in high-cost metro areas, the national median condo price often is higher than the median single-family price. In a given market area, condos typically cost less than single-family homes. As the reporting sample expands in the future, additional areas will be included in the condo price report.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate for a particular quarter represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative sales pace for that quarter was maintained for four consecutive quarters. Total home sales include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-operative housing.
2 NAR does not have 2018 data for Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Mich.
3 This is the effective mortgage rate based on Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed contract rate mortgage, points and fees.
4 Housing costs are burdensome if they take up more than 30% of income. The 25% share of mortgage payment to income considers the idea that homeowners have additional expenses, including mortgage insurance, home insurance, taxes, and expenses for property maintenance.
Release the twins!
"Under the scenario, the largest loss the GSEs would suffer would be the combined $20 billion in credit losses..."
"The CDC’s eviction ban has faced numerous legal challenges and landlords have criticized it, saying they can’t afford to house people for free or shoulder the country’s massive rental arrears. On Thursday, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down at least part of New York’s eviction moratorium."
This DJT appointed Judge allowed the latest CDC EVICTION MORATORIUM to stand.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/13/us-judge-denies-landlords-request-to-block-cdc-national-eviction-ban-.html
“This is a very bad sign for how the Supreme Court is going to land and rule on the CDC’s moratorium when it inevitably lands at their feet,” Garrard said.
She obviously hasn't seen the SCOTUS decision in Collins!
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/13/us-supreme-court-strikes-down-part-of-new-yorks-eviction-ban-.html
"I'd buy that for a dollar!"
IV. Severely Adverse Scenario Results Detail
x Both Enterprises reported comprehensive income in the severely adverse scenario.
Key drivers were portfolio growth and strong house price appreciation in 2020 and a
less severe house price decline in the 2021 planning horizon.
x The provision for credit losses was the largest expense at both Enterprises.
x The second largest expense at both Enterprises was the global market shock impact,
including the counterparty default scenario component.
I think we both know why the government is fighting so hard to keep these cases from the full sunlight of a trial! Most Judges inherently want to give complaining litigants an opportunity to demonstrate the strength of their Complaints.
It seems as more capital shows up on the gses balance sheet, the easier it will be for the government to finally exit the conservatorship.
In this case the trend isn't our friend! I think eventually the shorts (not much left for them ) and those exiting their positions will end at some point.
The UST scored $10B last quarter on Fannie Mae alone if you combine the LP, TPCA, FEDERAL CORPORATE TAXES, AND THE HOUSING TRUST FUND.
But the US CONGRESS wants more, extending the TPCA for ANOTHER 10 YEARS!
I think it went down to a dime right after the nws.
What plan if any do you think that the current administration has?
What will happen by the time all the dust settles from all the litigation?
These stocks have tested everyones patience and it doesn't look like a resolution will occur for some time.
The federal government should realize one day that having private capital in a 1st Loss Position and keeping $7.2T off the federal government balance sheet and following the HERA is good public policy.
I guess the analogy may be that the FHFA can't sue itself just like the NY tenants can't self certify their ability to prevent the landlords from Due Process...
"Prices have dropped more than 70% from the record high reached just three months ago."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-11/lumber-falls-to-nine-month-low-extending-retreat-after-boom
The SCOTUS trying to grow a pair this evening, finally issues some PARTIAL INJUNCTIVE RELIEF FROM GOVERNMENTAL OVERREACH (the Moratorium expires in NY in less than 3 weeks anyway).
https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/relatingtoorders/20
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/us/politics/supreme-court-new-york-eviction-moratorium.html
https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/08/growth-in-housing-units-slowed-in-last-decade.html
"This count includes most types of residential housing units such as single-family homes, townhomes, apartments and mobile homes. It also includes RVs, vans, houseboats and other nontraditional housing units when they are occupied by someone who has no other residence."
Thanks Vancmike! Might as well share what I know, especially as I have been following the gses for over one third of a century.
"Federal Appeals Courts in the United States sometimes grant rehearing en banc, to reconsider the decision of a panel of the court (consisting of only three judges) in which the case concerns a matter of exceptional public importance or the panel's decision appears to conflict with a prior decision of the court."
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/En_banc
EnBanc (i.e., ALL THE JUDGES REHEAR AND DECIDE THE CASE) happened in Collins in the 5th Circuit, but is not automatically done and can ONLY get done when a certain number of Judges approve it.
The last stop is the SCOTUS which is totally discretionary.
So the 3 Judge panel on August 4th may or may not be the final decision makers on the issues presented...