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Congrats, timing is everything!
Yep I loaded some up from .16 through .37 but been nibbling when some cash frees up. Had lowered my overall basis from $5-6 to about a buck, pre nibbling but I’m far enough out on the limb and I’d have to really extend myself to get basis down near current price per share. I had bought up to the $12 range after woodford bought in.
I only got a small nibble but in at 0.334 per share. I started checking the stock price late today after the partial recovery from 0.30 and missed out on the opportunity. The early bird does get the worm
Have we determined why the drop today? The last quote I saw is .335 and I’m thinking of nibbling another time.
I definitely remember LP stating home run as well. Might have been Q&A session of an ASM or in an earlier video of a presentation, however I think her statement goes back a number of years.
Help from the folks that have read the latest 10Q please -
NWBO is now showing $2.64M in revenue, a P/E ratio of about 77, a negative EBITDA but a positive 125% net margin? Earnings of zero.
Anyone can make sense of these figures?
At the risk of being crude, Imho opinion AF’s BS pieces are manure of a sort that doesn’t feed the growth of certain low cap biotechs
It’s not nwbo who is doing the work to data lock, nor the statistical analyses. Nwbo is blinded until the statistics are provided.
They did have significant crossover and from another LL comment she said everyone is living longer. It was a generalization she also mentioned there should be an approval possible. I take those comments positively but nothing is guaranteed. How many times have we seen what we feel are obvious outcomes ruled oppositely. Especially in these days where politics and money and power too often distort reality and render surprising decisions. I got into AMRN just in time for a less than expected decision ??
Ok so I listened carefully to LL’s talk. She did say there were about 3 dozen Brad’s (long survival patients) however what I heard was over multiple trials not just the dcvax phase 3 trial. That said, the phase 3 trial probably accounts for the significant majority of patients since the 331 I think compares to the other trial sizes of less than 100 patients each. Perhaps others of you message board members know the actual trial sizes? I also think that other immunotherapy than dcvax were potentially included by LL in her 3 dozen statements.
I truly appreciate how frustrated you are because as you say it has been 12 years. I’ve been in NWBO close to the 12 years as well. However it really looks like the finish line is very close ahead and getting to TLD should be “turning the crank” from here in that the CRO has the ball now, and then the data is turned over to the statisticians to follow the SAP and produce the Results from which efficacy and success or failure is determined. So I think the skepticism that was earned by the seemingly never ending trial may be unwarranted at this stage.
This isn’t to say success of the trial is assured, however the trial is done and success/failure only remains to be revealed in weeks, not quarters or years, from now.
Now we really have incentive??
Sorry Laurie, thought I was responding to tryn2.
Yes, I share your view
My mother felt better while she was on the initial immunotherapy infusions, for about 6 months without any adverse side effects. Dcvax looks to have a much better safety profile. Pray that dcvax is efficacious because it would be an immense blessing for patients and their caregivers/families.
Scotty, pulling out all the playbook today I see.
I saw a news blurb today that Minuchen May consider further extending federal tax deadline beyond July 15th, but it sounded like a long shot.
Every billion in increased market cap or buyout/buyin is more than a $1 in stock price.
What’s refreshing is they appear to be making extra effort to communicate the process steps and dependencies rather than the black box approach of earlier messaging.
They are lawyers after all, and even as an engineer I had many occasions to condition and caveat such milestones, however yes the particular statement you highlighted seems like scratching your right ear with your left hand (maybe left foot??)
Zoom ??
I’m long so hold your fire, however let’s not build unnecessarily extreme reaction setup if DL doesn’t happen by end of next week but instead slips into the following week.
It’s clear NWBO is not performing these last steps to DL, the CRO/service organizations are and the covid situation has worsened significantly in the southern states. I would not be shocked if there is a little slip past next week, hopefully not.
NWBO leadership has been operating remotely and distributed not requiring moving for colocation yet.
Sorry, it looks like I’m having problems with auto correct changing parts of my message after submitting.
If you don’t mind, did you have 2-factor authentication when hacked? No worries if you’d rather not say.
I can’t help feeling too much is being made of soft vs hard trial database lock.
It seems to me the difference is largely that prior to either lock there is a team of people under the CRO that are simultaneously validating the trial data and making changes to the database as required.
When all the data is validated to the maximum extent that is to be extremely, filling previously missing data items and addressing the anomalous or questioned data, the database would be locked and no further change can be made.
Soft lock appears to be a potential intermediate step which I would venture may be used where the database has essentially been validated except perhaps waiting on a small enough set of i’s to be dotted and t’s to be crossed so to speak, that the database is close enough to final to propose soft lock presumably allowing the data to be unblinded for the statistical analyses to be performed. During soft lock only one person is able to make the final remaining changes leading to hard lock.
Either state of lock would be significant to advancing to TLD since even soft local would only be worth doing if the database is close enough to allow the stats work to begin. I’m also guessing that when hard lock is declared the stats would quickly be completed.
I for one have been nibbling more shares with any spare change. Picked up $400 worth today.
FWIW not being very familiar with requirements for label extension, it would seem reasonable that DCVax L should be applicable and extendable to other tumor types. The manufacturing process and science of action is the same.
Objectively for Direct, while the science of action is analogous the manufacturing process is not exactly the same since the lysate pulsing takes place in the injected tumor and introduces variables around efficiency of the pulsing and size of tumor and needle positioning in the tumor being injected. So while very similar at high level the detail is different enough that additional trial may be required unless a case can carry the day based on the direct prior trial
So very true! And so many elements ands aspects to the story: challenges, drama, motivations, espionage, greed, mercenaries, fake news, David vs Goliath, management backstories, and investor’s convictions and gambles, and much, much more.
GLTA
I’ll co-write it with you since I’ve posted some of the plot line previously ??????
Most likely taking some license to keep things conceptually simpler for the audience. We used to say close enough for government work :)
My late gains in celgene were poetic justice or karma in a way since I had been invested (gambling) in enmd (Entremed) from which celgene got the thalidomide derived basis for celgene’s blockbuster drug that established celgene and is still contributing the lions share (to BMY now.)
FWIW enmd is now CASI and has different management and strategy, acquiring existing cancer drugs to get them approved and marketed in China. Looks like most of the company operates in China. I did recently notice that their cost of sales is just about equal to the revenues from sales, which raises some questions or maybe the costs are high because these are the first product sales of their first approved drug.
You had every reason to not pursue celgene at the time. No regrets
As an example, those that bought Celgene early on saw multi thousand percentage gains if they held, in other words “FU” money. I got in much later around $30/share and still held for a five bagger, nice but no where near life changing like some others on this board have achieved. GLTA
One more factoid regarding potential dcvax treatment is that the pills price tag was approximately $40k per month (tiny little pills providing 2 to 8 mg dosages) and the insurance company denied coverage because it wasn’t yet on their formulary or for the other drug because it was prescribed off label.
S
So dcvax could also be significantly less expensive
She was only on chemo briefly while waiting on approval and delivery of what was experimental (pill form) drug that worked for a while and then another experimental drug (also pill) that helped for a few months but had debilitating side effects that ultimately had me take her to the hospital ER never to return to her home but spending the last 5 months in rehab and hospice. I believe a dcvax treatment might have been a good alternative to the experimental drugs and through end of life rather than opting out from continuing the path of more debilitating treatments for questionable very temporary elongation of low quality of life at significant risk of “eventing” sooner than no treatment and who knows what extraordinary measures were to be.
Chemo was early on thought to possibly just slow progression a few months and the oncologist avoided chemo as a result.
Marzan, thanks for your sincere sentiments and I truly appreciate the message. I like to believe she is watching and for sure I felt an immediate sense of strength and courage when she passed, as if gave me some of her immense fortitude. I will try to refrain from these personal posts going forward however I relate the still fresh personal experience with the NWBO struggle and perceived benefits compared to current cancer treatments.
Hey is it allowed to use another person’s photo as your social media shot?
Wish my mom could have gotten dcvax even if she wouldn’t have survived longer but with a much easier course of treatment and QOL.
I hope and pray that you make a fortune on NWBO very soon, never to have to go that far out on a limb again! GLTA
My wife is already waiting because she knows I’ve been talking about this company and trial for years. Every once in a while she chides me for losing a large amount of money on “that stock.” All I can say is it isn’t over yet. So hopefully I won’t have to take the walk of shame, and not be “reminded” of my poor investment skills for a very long time ??