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Yes, I look for longer term trends, but mostly trade the one to 5 day sure things.
I would have gone short at the close today if I hadto do something, but will for sure short if we rally back to 1450 or higher in the next week. I dont see how that can happen, but if it does, is a golden op to short.
Buy the dips is a great strategy, except in a major decline. Not sure if that has begun yet, but this current rally will fail is my best guess, unless our fearless leaders somehow actually have the courage to do something to help the economy instead of making sound bites.
So far, bullish going back to march 2009, higher highs and higher lows. If we break 1343 decisively and keep dropping, then the bull is over for sure.
Watch for 200dma to be broken, then turn down, then retested to get fully margined short. How about may 2008 the last time that happened?
My system is now super bearish, but will update today. Bottom line: Selling has been contoled so far, but we need a true selling climax to end this decline. Support at 1400 may hold for today, but not for long.
will run the numbers and give more info later today. Thanks to all those posting.
got a solid sell signal again today, am going to short tomorrow on any rise above where we closed today.
bottom line: Could be wrong and we follow the path of least resistance up, but sure looks like a top to me.
As usual am very short term and got out of my long in sds earlier today at a small gain, trying to get back in afterhours or tomorrow early.
When everyone knows something is going to happen, like strength in the end of the year-start of new year, and when the fiscal cliff is resolved stocks will rally, then it will not happen.
In oct 2008, congress refused to pass the bush bank bailout, and the market fell heavily. they then passed it, market rallied almost back to where it was before they did not pass it, and then totally collapsed.
Its the economy stupid, and that will eventually bring down stocks. buy sds below 53 and you will make money.
Last time the isee put call ratio was over 200, like it was yestereday, and the only times it has been over 200 in the past year, was on sept 14th, not a bad day to short.
5 day trin says we drop after any rally in the morning.
The political solution to our economic problem is not going to solve anything, and the economy often does terrible the first year after a presidential election.
Anyting is possible, and spx 1470 before the end of the year is not out of the question, but I have for several weeks said short at spx 1450, and I intend to do that.
Bullish pattern, but very overbought short term.
Have not posted in a week. I shorted today, buying sds at 52.9. Have orders to double that at 52.5 tomorrow. I dont know if we now drop big time, or just for a couple days back to spx 1420. This is the no stick market, as in no bad news sticks.
Bottom line: Possible we rally into next spring, but will not be a straight shot. Politics will rule for now, but like the news from europe last couple years, the problem is not being solved and the economy will fall soon, and when the market realizes that, the bear will bite.
Probably should be going with the trend and playing the long side, but is not my thing
Probably true, we will be taxed into poverty. Might as well sing and dance while we are still alive and healthy.
One more thought: for sure short if vix drops to 14. Market never is that easy, and possibly today was the top. AGain, I should be shorting now, play the long side with tight stops is my recomendation for those who like to follow all day long.
Last comment: Short when the govt finally does somethig, or anounces they are going to do something. The final vote is not important, short when we go up big time for 2 days running.
We are about to have the best short since 2008, are you all ready?
Smokey 22 got it right. Herr goebbels got it right, the bigger the lie, the easier it is to make people believe it.
Imagine if they had handed money to home owners, taken it from the people who commited fraud and made stupid investments for their firms, instead of stealing from the poor and giving to the rich in 2008?
I bought my house in 1984, so am in good shape.
the pattern is similar to may to july of last year, which says the rally will continue another week or so before the bear bits hard.
Nothing ever works that easily, but a rally to 1450 or so will set up a nice decline.
BTW, the only way we avoid a nasty bear is if the idiots in washington enact a bit stimulus bill, spend 500 billion on public works, then the economy booms. The fed stimulus only helps the big banks make more money to be given to top execs, who hoard it.
god save us all when this all collapse. AM hoping not in my lifetime, but for sure the next big bubble will end the madness when it breaks, as they will not be able to hold it together again when that happens. Bubbles bursting put a strain on the system, as the ones in power always screw up and lose a ton of money when it happens.
Bonds will tank, rates will rise, and gold will shine. I was there in 1980, when rates went through the roof and gold quadrupled quickly.
The trend always reverses when everyone assumes it can only keep going on forever. I have a friend who only manages millionaires money, and in 2006 he said hoursing prices would only fall 10% in the next couple years and then keep going up. He finally sold all his real estate holding last year. And rich people trust these guys?
We are once again very overbought, but all signals remain on buy!
Am shooting myself in the foot for not going more heavily long in mid november, and almost went long yesterday and on friday.
bottom line: Playing the long side is what makes sense for now, but the upside is limited, and when the selling starts, look out.
My gut says we go up into the resolution of the debt ceiling, most likely a non event as they dont do anything, and then the market tops just before or just after that.
I should be shorting, but am waiting, waiting.
The fiscal cliff is a non issue, the problem is our govenment is not for the people, by the people, etc.
The extreme high rsi level in mid Sept usually signals a new high eventually before the bear bites, but have lost too much money playing the rally at the end.
My gut says we go up into some kind of solution they come up with eventually, but then the bear begins. I should be short,but am not willing to take much risk right now.
Made a few pennies, not much, the past couple weeks on the long side, but now just have 10% in gold, hedged with jan calls.
the economy is in real trouble, and without a concerted effort by our govt, we are screwed.
I got a short term sell monday, but did not take it. bought some gld again today, but not willing to short or go long this pattern. If i had to say which way we break, would say up, but if we dont break up soon, could be bear trap.
bottom line: We got overbought, not doing too bad to work out the condition to either break up or down. Not willing to bet on this pattern. But gold is a no brainer for the short term.
I closed all my long positions last week, too early as usual.
I can make a good case for us going back to spx 1470, or for why it is time to sell now.
Not taking any risk for now, wish I had kept my long positions in gld, as it is the one asset class that could do well for awhile.
bottom line: Economy looks like it will limp along into next spring and then turn down hard and fast, with the market going along for the fall. I hope to god I am wrong.
21dma and 50dma still falling and will most like keep doing so - bearish
200dma still rising - bullish
21dma for vix falling- bullish
10dma for AD numbers getting to extreme levels, but need another couple good days to get a solid sell.
Full moon madness coming.
one more interesting fact:
This decline is now the longest at 42 days since I started keeping records in 1987 without a rally of 5%.
My gut says we either keep dropping another couple days, setting up a massive buy, or we rally a couple days and then sell off again. That is what I am betting now.
bought more qqq at 61.85. Probably should wait till the close, which could be much lower.
1. Super high negative readings on mcclellen oscilator, and 10dma of advances vs declines on nyse. both short term positive, or indicates a crash coming, which is possible.
2. Finally getting climax readings of fear, setting up the first bottom, a quick rally, then more selling (not sure how far down)
3. RSI reading of 17 is close to the low on May 18th. In fact, everything looks just like may 18th. Then, we had a 2 day rally, small pullback, and another quick 2 day rally. Then we fell and made a new low in june.
bottom line: If you are a trader, this is a decent entry for a long position.
congress fiddling? The world burning?
Lucky i dumped my appl the next day for a tiny gain, dumped my gld at 167.5,
but just bought qqq at 62 and bmy at 30.8
Just for the bounce, negative tick yesterday of -1400, usually a bottom. But my gut says bounce into next wednesday, and then the selling comes back in.
If we close up today, is a definate short term bottom. Nothing is certian, everything is possible.
Been at a writers conference the last week. Now I know all that is needed to write a sucesful novel. CAn I do it is the million dollar question, which only time will tell. Maybe you can all say you knew me when?
Market is so ready for a bounce. Dont expect a major rally, but some kind of short term rally into friday makes the most sense. Bought some appl today, wish me luck.
Was going to buy csco, but woulda, coulda, shoulda.
Keep up the great posts everyone. I still own gld, hedged with nov calls.
do you mean it is overbought, or oversold?
Am still short term bullish, very short term, just have lost too much money playing the long side when a bull market was on its last legs.
One more thing: My uncle says the leading economic indicators have turned down for the first time since last april, and had been going up since last sept.
they dont always work that quickly, but he says economy will be ok until the spring, but next summer and fall things could get very ugly.
He was on the commision that investigated the causes of the 87 crash, and was a full professor or economics for 40 years. He is not precise in his predictions, but I listen to what he says.
Not doing much, but still own gld, hedged with nov 167 calls. Not the best investment so far of my life, but am confident gld will hit 180 by end of the year.
Markets in confirmed downtrend, and the rally into the election could be over. Tempted to by appl but not taking the risk.
Bottom line: Market action and indicators all point down, but would not rule out one more rally. Of course, was going to short at 1430, but not doing anything for now. Capital preservation is always the best rule when a bear is at the door.
good luck trading.
Not enough fear for a major bottom, but enough oversold if a big down day tomorrow, great buy point, maybe at close?
qqq dropped over 1% in last couple minutes, no movement in appl, but assume will go down hard. Thank god did not take risk and buy this mess.
of course, anything can and will happen in the market.
Thanks for the posts. My system is on longer term sell, shorter term buy, so although was tempted to buy the qqq after hours below 65, did not do it. Almost bought some csco and appl, again did not.
Instead bought back my calls on gld yesterday, and put the calls back on today. Making little chip shots, but feel ok owning gld for long run, maybe will drop to 150, will buy more if it does.
Not an easy pattern to trade in my experience, so many trend lines are broken, which does not mean it cant go up.
200dma and major trend lines around 1380 on spx. If we break it, sell programs could clobber the market quickly, but that kind of doom and gloom is always present.
What will appl report?
IMportant note: 50dma is still trending up, so for now the trend is still up for the spx. Price is also above the 50dma, bullish.
I agree the sky is falling, but bull markets keep going long after logic is out the window. Look at 2000 and 2007.
21dma had turned down on the spx and up on the vix, both bearish signs.
We need to get over 1460, and under 15 for them both to turn the other direction.
could be more weakness this week, so not buying anything just yet. Nice to see some kind of selling climax, but we the trin over 2 on friday may be all we get.
I still see one more bounce to new highs as a given for the spx, but I also was wrong earlier this year about it retesting the lows.
Super high RSI reading a few weeks ago, has always in the past led to a new high on the spx before I turns over and drops hard.
btw, I see spx 900 as the eventual low, which in real money will be about the same as the 666 we got in 2009
You close gld, I cover my shorts.
I agree, gld could do poorly for another week, so will put back on hedges if we get a two day bounce, or maybe buy more if we fall back into the end of the week.
Would have bought appl today, but am not convinced this rally will keep going, though would not want to be short now.
GS is doing well, Market looks strong to me. Getting small buy signals, so closing my hedges on gld today.
Bottom line: Dont fight the fed, at least till the election, and most likely till the end of the year. Unless Romney wins, then buckle down for the coming depression.
Market looks like is poised to roll over, but my gut says one more short term rally. However, will not be playing upside for now.
Willcover my hedges on gold if we drop to spx 1400. May even buy some appl proxy, qld, if that happens and we get a short term buy signal.
For now, just watching for a good signal.
I see a market that got to extreme overbought conditions, then got oversold enough on most indicators to argue that a short position no longer made sense.
As usual, I shorted a couple days too early, and covered a couple days too quickly, but I made money,and in the end that is all the counts.
Not trading much, and I agree with you, that more downside makes sense,but I dont see it as a high probabilty trade, but am not as sophisticated as you.
bottom line: All indicators are positive, other than we got to extreme overbought conditions a couple weeks ago, but that we have not sold off big time yet is bullish. Am slighlty long, but hedged.
Thank you for your kind words about my first book, "Kittens saved my life. I finished the second edit of my book on Africa, hooray! Am printing it out, and will put it aside while I work on my third book about India next.
Not sure what to do with the market, have a lot of gld, all hedged in the money, so am doing ok for now. Looks like a new rally, but playing the long side near the end of a bull market can be very profitable, or very destructive to my savings.
Keep in touch, may all your trades be profitable.
Just a quick note: I was expecting, and would not be too surprised, to see a bigger decline, but my system says stay long, and we at least run back to spx 1460, and I think we make a new high next week.
We did get a climax rsi reading a few weeks ago, but that always leads to another new high before the bear strikes, but could be we dont get that until after the election.
Am not playing much, other than gld hedged and some dwa, again hedged although not hedging would have been a much better move.
ONe last thought: The 21dma is still rising, and all this decline has done is brought us back to the 21dma.
Pattern looks like we still have one more high before the big decline. Would not want to be shor tomorrow.
bottom line: Not much fear, but not much to be afraid of short term. Default by spain or something that big, and everything goes out the window.
for now, assume this is a bull rally, and the high 5dma trin and trin over 3 yesterday says go long young man, go long
Was obvious short, now is not obvious long, but the 5 day vix and other indicators say time to cover short. I put on the short a couple days early, and may have covered too early too, but making money not being precise is my strategy.
Gold was one of the only assets that went up in the great depression.
We could get another major sell off in gold in a panic selling event, like in sept 2008, but would be a time to buy even more.
Am buying gld and selling out of the money calls on the position, no reason to be greedy.