I see a market that got to extreme overbought conditions, then got oversold enough on most indicators to argue that a short position no longer made sense.
As usual, I shorted a couple days too early, and covered a couple days too quickly, but I made money,and in the end that is all the counts.
Not trading much, and I agree with you, that more downside makes sense,but I dont see it as a high probabilty trade, but am not as sophisticated as you.
bottom line: All indicators are positive, other than we got to extreme overbought conditions a couple weeks ago, but that we have not sold off big time yet is bullish. Am slighlty long, but hedged.