Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
zen, indeed, and if it stretches far enough,
the best route IMO.
While the warrants might be in the money on Jan and July respectively for A and B there is less than urgency on the part of the warrant holder, so Wave could still be sucking fumes.
I've lost track of what the sflk holdings are worth, what, a qtr?
The Warrants are (if exercised) worth 5.2 million less whatever they have to do to register them and so on.
So if SFLK is good for a Q and the warrants for 2 Q's they really are still going to have to dip into the pot for some mo'
(me thinks $10 million or so).
A total wild-arse fantasy would be that they could get to cash-flow positive at about 85-90million sh outstanding
Regards,
Dig Space.
RWK, care for some lack of balance ...?
Q2 = 6k
Q3 = 44k
Assume all of Q3 recognised is deferred from Q2
Q3 deferred is 340k.
Rate of change of deferred Q to Q is greater than 7 fold.
So lets assume all of the deferred from Q2 came from the last month, thereby reducing the weighted average Q to Q to ca. 2.6 (understanding that Q3 is by no means linear and is being treated that way).
In any event, 340*2.6=850K for the deferred component of the next Q.
IF they do bank the 340k as expected and
IF they record a 850k backlog as I just project
AND IF they really have the money to get into Q1
THEN I would be disinclined to go for trying to secure the sale of the rights at $1 ....
WHY?
Cause IF that happened, the warrants (which are considerable dilution) would definitely be in the money.
And IF you were trying to minimize dilution (which is obviously their M.O., and unfortunately from a Monday morning perspective to their detriment)
THEN, the plan would be to limp along as thinly as possible anticipating the warrants and otherwise pulling off one more shelf thingy if the Oct30 rights don't move.
The point is, could not Wave dump shares into the MKT holding prices at around 93 cents for some time, minimise the dilution (by selling fewer than 3.5 million shares), and wait for the warrants (which are at least better than 3.5M shares for a buck).
I doubt I lost you, but I probably lost Feeney in that.
Regards,
Dig Space.
zen, but he also said ...
we [wave] are not trying to overstated or quibble about 20k here or there. Some took that to mean there was around 20k in deferred rev last Q ... and those that said so where called bashers, and you repeatedly highlighted "significant" while ignoring "20k here or there". So I took SKS' words and came to a <40k conclusion (off by 4001 dollars, not bad).
Call em bashers all you want. But I believe as I did then that SKS gave giudance to the effect that we were talking about things in the 10s not 100s of k range.
Regards,
Dig Space.
RWK, certainly it could move the stock …
coming from anybody other than SKS ... (sorry, couldn't help it)
Definitely agree that getting data out there allows for decisions/action, although I find it rather hard to imagine movement on the basis of the last CC. Either way, shares need to be sold so getting the report out there is ASAP is sensible.
On the notion of liftoff, could we back that down to accelerating down the runway. Flying itself (liftoff) is positive cashflow IMO.
Overall it is one of the few CCs that carried forward from the previous CC in a fashion that actually resembled staying on track, making progress, and having the statements of this CC actually relate to the statements of the previous CC is a manner that is consistent with market dynamics, accounting principles, and our external knowledge regarding the development of this space. I was getting tired of hearing that the gold mine of the previous CC didn’t get it so they had moved on to a new one. There was absolutely none of that in this CC. I find that to be the most remarkable feature of the latest report.
Regards,
Dig Space
svenm, some time ago SKS and Feeney awarded themselves
Golden parachutes. Dumping Feeney could easily involve more money than Wave has. They are stuck with him until they become liquid (if). And when/if that happens folks will stop caring.
Feeney is in a pretty secure spot.
The golden parachutes were public in the annual of something like 2000 or 2001 if memory serves and were briefly addressed in a CC. On these boards I think there were only a few people that spoke out against them (HhH, BTK(me), Spin).
SKS said it was just industry standard.
This was the period of time where they simply went crazy at the trough, forgiving loans, cooking up non-performance bonuses (what I would call a salary) and otherwise compensating themseleves at a level much more consitant with a SP 500 co.
Greed. Greed without remorse. Shameless greed.
Regards,
Dig Space.
2bs, are you under an NDA or what? eom
guvna, it could still well be that
Wave plans to either renegotiate the Oct30th rights or let them wane and use the shelf for a new placement or direct to market. In either case, given the level of scrutiny they are under, it might have been a decision to get the stuff out to relieve some encumberance from NDAs.
However, it really is more likely that that is when they found the time to do it. Its not like their finances are particularly complicated. This particular disclosure date is less than remarkable IMO, it is those of the past always waiting to the last minute that were more concerning to me.
They have a reasonably narrow window within which to file.
Should they do it on election day instead?
I think this was a get it out of the way thing. That is good. It suggests they have something else to be doing ... whereas in the past when they sat on it forever and pushed massive puff PRs perhaps they were less occupied with more productive matters than investors would like to think.
Regards,
Dig Space.
barge, read again ...
Wave offers a ****component**** to TCG that enables interoperability.
That does not translate into Wave being the De Facto Platform for Interoperable Trusted Computing ("internet services").
Wave is a Widget, not a Car.
Wave is not the platform, they are a part.
I believe you are stuck in the past on this.
Regards,
Dig Space.
barge, you say:
"WAVE is the only player to offer an Interoperable platform"
and launch from there to this notion of
"DEFACTO PLATFORM FOR TRUSTED WEB SERVICES"
Again, you are in error.
Wave confers to a platform the feature on interoperability. That is their niche (or one off them). That does not make them the platform.
If only Wave made armored tires that fit all models of Humvees, would you conclude that only Wave offered Humvees, even if IBM made armored tires for two models of Humvees and Infineon made armored tires for one model of Humvees (and ignoring the fact that a Humvee has a lot of parts that are not tires?)?
Additionally, Doma is correct on the Java thingy, at least with regards to all of the information I have. It is a point I have regularly updated myself on as I considered Java a reasonably opp for full convergence. What doma says is true, you got CAPI or PKCS#11 (at least according to SKS and Bruno, two folks that you are regularly willing to dismiss as being out of the loop on these matters, as in e.g. Janus Metering fantasies).
Regards,
Dig Space.
trustcousa, revs
The company has variably hintied towards 120 million units with Wave in half of them.
Cut that in half again (you know, to be conservative)
then you land at ca. 32 million machines at 25 cents for 8 million in revs plus Wave's various add ons with a takeup of lets say 10% for lets say 20 bucks a seat for those who actually go for the add on (or another 64 million). That gives 72 million in revs, of which a big hunk will likely be "defered" lets defer 85% landing one right about at burn rate. So, aroung 15 million revs and 0.0 EPS.
24601, well that was all good fun ...
although there are many that woulds argue Wave has never met that level of disclosure ...
But the real point of this post,
You indicated some time ago that you were assembling a white box PC around a TPM equiped INTC MoBo. Do you have any comments, public or otherwise?
Regards,
Dig Space (btk0077@yahoo.com)
And Cognizance competes directly with the Wave Trust Server, I believe that is a material development. Thanks for the link
Regards,
Dig Space.
So nobody asked who "Cognizance" is from the gugi TCG/slide show in Munich?
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=4390888
18 minutes of silence where
they give the details of the pending takeover LOL
phonecards, so you are saying that
selling software creates a liability which offsets the cash recieved that is porportionally diminished as revs are booked (or sometihng like that?)?
we think part of the 340k may be a licensing agreement spread out over some or all of the deployed TPMs???
did he say that?? I guess not,
feeeny "we expect all the money this year, but will book the revs over several qtrs'
Holy Barf Bags! Huh?
cpa he said they expect to get the "340k cash by the end of the year"
The Slides Look Like This:
Slide 1: TCG
Slide 2:
A picture of Hoover Dam and the slogans: open the gates … who are you … just trust me
Slide 3:
"Trusted Ecosystem" with TPM in the middle and all the happy catch phrases around it largely dived into TPM devices in a bubble in the middle, Applications and Services (grouped above), and Security and Trust Services (grouped below).
Slide 4
TPM software:
TPM<->TSS->CSP/CAPI Interface<->CAPI App
(and in parallel) TPM<>TSS<>PKS#11 interface<>PKS#11 App
(just bubble flow chart, "<" indicating arrows)
Slide 5
More TPM software layered above and adjacent to Slide 4;
Above = Applications (TPM management, File manager, Signatures, PIM)
And adjacent = Infrastructure (KTM, trusted third party)
Slide 6,7,8
Scans of the ESC kinda going through the TPM enabling process and in this case enabling a fingerprint ID step
Slide 9 (the meat)
Types of 3rd party hardened Apps:
File encrypt (Wave, IBM, Softex, HP, Infineon, ISC)
Single Secure logon (Wave, Softex, IBM, Cognizance)
Protected Info Repository (Wave, IBM, Softex)
Email integration (Outlook, Netscape, ISC)
Signature (MSFT, Wave, Adobe, Netscape)
Enterprise Logon (Cognizance, Wave Trust Server)
Remote Access (SecureID, ChecpointVPN-1)
Hardened PKI (VeriSign PTA, Checkpoint, RSA)
And that all folks.
(but who is Cognizance??)
Regards,
Dig Space
gugi, I didn't have trouble viewing the slides.
The file was a zip witrh slides from Wave, ATML, and INTC (wave had about 8, the others about 4 each).
Wave listed "Cognizance" as a vendor in some of the same spaces where they listed themselves. Fancy that.
Regards,
Dig Space.
doma, no, but I can sit on the copier once barge is done with the thing ;O
go-kite, I'll be suprised by any revs over
$40k (not including the sale of SFLK, regardless of what Feeney may choose to call it).
Regards,
Dig Space.
regarding WaveXpress it is looking
increasingly like while they keep hyping it at CCs
it continues to be dead weight, or more cynically, a place to park Peter on a fat salary that is not subject to disclosure.
Regards,
Dig Space.
ot e-shute,
my repost with your suggested modifications was once again ...
Regards,
Dig Space.
are we to assume that yesterdays PR
was the Big Bang so many have referred to that is going to catapult this equity over the $1 option line?
One should note that folks variably argue that Wave is withholding info so that the options expire and they can then dump the news and get a better deal (such folks ignore the fact of an ongoing SEC investigation).
Such folks just as often argue that early QTR results is good (i.e. nobody would rush bad news) whereas the argument a moment before is that late reporting would be good (i.e. let the options die so as to diminish dilution)
Good if early.
Good if late.
Good if up.
Good if Down.
(I'm starting to feel like Dr. Seuss here ...)
You know ::
Up Frown Down Clown?
Down Frown Up Clown?
Frown Clown Up?
Clown Frown Down?
(god I'm good) or did I digress?
Seems the hype angle is bust, I really doubt they are going to release news at close and then spin it into the CC ... its all of that SEC-sweat-on-the-back-of-the-neck that makes me think so.
Bummer for me, I was set to trade the hype and now I'm overlong in a company run by the likes of Feeney.
Yikes, cause they always dive after a CC ... even if its puffed.
Lick wounds, dump over exposure, hold "core position".
Regards,
Dig Space.
e-shute, you have mail at info@tonymcfadden.net but I otherwise grow weary of such deletion sillyness (as I'm sure you will see upon review of the deleted content). It was on topic and attacked nobody. I really can't be bothered with much of this going forward, the magnitude of the selective pettiness is positively dumbfounding.
Yawn,
Dig Space.
kingsfull, you mean revenue POTENTIAL, right? eom
OT vader, I seriously doubt it
but here's to hopin'+prayin'
Regards,
Dig Space.
OT howardjoel,
I have no real view on the subject. The magnitude of the speculation required to assemble any constellation of dots resembling a Juggler on the matter strikes me as nothing more than a fit of fancy.
You are correct, my Dig was of little value.
However, had it lasted as opposed to being sensibly removed, I believe barge would have gotten a smile out of it.
Regards,
Dig Space.
e-shute, I can't help you on that,
I do not file content into "positive" "negative" "hypster" "basher" camps.
My content reflects my opinion, which has been for some time, that google eyed notions of ubiquity are for the birds, doom-and-gloom notions of crash-and-burn are a real possibility, but in either event Wave has eeeked out an important space, one which they have demonstrated zero proficiency in exploiting.
On eeking out space I give Wave a 8.
On exploiting anything eeked or otherwise I give them a 1.
On important tech for TCG efforts I again give them an 7.
On strength of patents etc I give them a 6.
On strength of finances I give them a 2.
On character of management I give them a 3.
On quality of management I give them a 5.
On vision I give them a 7.
On competition (does it exist, do they understand it) I give them a 2.
I like to think my posts reflect my opinions.
So you tell me, was it a "positive" post? (I'm with the challenger on this one during this season; I don't see the value of labels).
Regards,
Dig Space.
E-shute, that is the sort of content that leads some to say:
“It’s Coming” and others to say “I’ve heard it before”
Notworthy for those who are skimming is:
edit DELETE (I see you already cut and pasted that portion)
… And so on with important points about key mobility, which if memory serves is a notion that I and others like me was/were bashed for mentioning years ago … including dismissive comments in e-mails from Wave Systems. So much for inventing, it is much more like complying. So much for leading, much more like following. But hey, one can follow and still have the first solution. Others may differ on that point. But I believe Wave is doing a lot more following than Wavoids surmise … and I believe the success and size of their enterprise will reflect that. But, I always thought Mr Softee followed as well, and one can hardly call his enterprise small.
But if one looks at the chart with the ESC highlighted at the top as part of the bundled bits, combines that with all the other features of the chart (of which NTRU seems to be playing a real role) and recognizing that hardware gets a slice … then say:
1. What will the market bear for the TOTAL SERVICE
2. What portion of that service is Wave providing
3. What can Wave expect to net per seat …
And I am millions of miles away from pps of many of the folks around here.
Wave looks to be an important part (if they can survive the SEC and survive their hideous lack of money). A small important part.
Regards,
Dig Space.
barge, you bet yeeehawwww
up to a whopping 93 cents on a blistering 92k shares. Watch out MSFT ... here we come!!
Regards,
Dig Space.
snackman, OH, ... I see. eom
e-shute, agreed,
so does that service (key transfer) which you describe=ubiquity as often argued, or is it a small important part (which I argue).
I supect there are a couple of orders of magnitude difference in ROI terms for shareholders.
And, of course, how durable/well-protected is key transfer IP?
Regards,
Dig Space.
e-shute, because Infineon is the only one stop shop.
A point that folks here don't want to admit.
Sure, a multivendor solution may well be more robust and more useful.
But that is rarely the way I have seen tech go.
Regards,
Dig Space.
lugan, my guess for Q revs is under $40k.
Regards,
Dig Space.
OT 24601, my experience with
utilities and tobacco companies that pay high recurring dividends is that the share price falls alomst precisely the amount of the dividend the day the dividend goes ex.
I'm referring to highly liquid companies, and I am expecting my MSFT holdings to follow that pattern.
Regards,
Dig Space.
khillo, I did not intend to either
deny or disparage doma's fine input to this venue.
That does not negate the fact that doma sees Wave
going into everything. You have seen the chart, have you not?
Doma's argument is that these various vendors must use Wave or they are simply wasting their time and that nobody would own a TPM and not use it.
My first three mobo's had a Weitek coprocessor socket in them, and each time I asked if it did before I bought it, and I never installed a math-co on any machine.
Silly me. Somehow I'm thinking the folks at Weitek were pretty high about that, and to naught.
Doma and I have a difference of opinion on what translates into revenue, I perceive the path between bundling/prs etc as a much longer and more tortured path. And even if your socket or compliant chip is shipped, usage is far from automatic.
Oh yea, and I suspect IT managers ("enterprise customers") were at least as sure as I that they had that empty Weitek slot on their machines (and VESA compliant as well, LOL).
I believe Wave is going to be a small important piece. Doma believes Wave is going to be a big important piece.
We differ.
Your Friend,
Dig Space.
(edit, if I'm right I make money, if doma is right I make a lot of money, if we are both wrong, I likely some lose money).
yup, bought on recent weakness EOM
zen, the PR came from
Lee Mass, it is not a new one.
Recall some verbage:
"Launched"
"Deployed"
etc.
Your Friend,
Dig Space.
The old ATML PR is just a "works with" PR. eom