Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Picking tops is much harder than predicting bottoms. I just tripled my original short buying more sds at 48.7, as another channel value is at 1501.35 today, and we are at 1501.7 right now (triple ouch)
Typical to blow out over channel values for a couple days, so possible we keep going up into friday. So not time to go margin short yet.
I am confused at how we keep going up, but the most bullish thing a market can do is go up.
This is not a final top pattern, no way. We need a decline of at least 3% followed by another run at new highs, that either fails of makes a nominal new high.
However, a market that is not being led by the typical tech stocks is not doing to last long. Watch for financials to not make new highs on the next rally to confirm a final top. Even better is if we can actually have a 7 to 10%correction followed by a sharp rise on big volatility, as that will signal it is a final rally.
Nothing is certian, everything is possible.
we got a spinning top on the chart, good short term topping pattern.
Still, spx 1450 will hold, if only for a day or so, or be the buy level is my thoughts.
appl at 1000, not 100, that was the bullish call, and even 1500 by the end of this year. Dow 14000 is still likely, but not this month.
spx 1450 is my first downside target, possible it only falls that far and then up and away again. However, it could fall a lot more.
WE still have at least one more rally to new highs before the bear bites, so dont be greedy and try to hold your short for too long.
Appl will be at 100 by the end of the year, at least that was I kept reading just a few short months ago. Must be right, if I saw it on the internet!
Possible the intense stimulus from all of the worlds banks will keep the economy running for a longer time, even if it will not work longer term, and make the next recession worse.
Shorting could be really stupid, but looks very toppy, and unless earnings blow away the estimates, then we go down soon.
upper channel at 1499 tomorrow, expect at least a 2% drop off that level, if you are super bullish.
closing tick over 900, major sell signal.
I see a 3 or 4% drop, then another run to new highs that fails.
Just a wild guess, but added another 500 shares of sds at 49.14 afterhours
Sold me 2k of sds in the morning for small profit, just bought anjother 2k of sds at 49.3
We will pull back on monday, they jacked it up at close to make money on their calls.
Could be double top here, time to short heavily.
Added a bit more sds near the close at 49.75, am now the most heavily short I have been since early november.
vix at 12.3, wow!
Just doubled my short buying more sds at 49.8 Again, was going to wait for 49.8 originally, but jumped too soon at 49.98
bought sds at 49.98, confirming I was right to sell earlier. Had order to sell at 50.4, but chickened out, which was wrong.
Looking for at least sds 52 next week.
sold my sds for 50.22, will buy back later today, hopefully at 49.8, but for sure under 50.
We are short term topping, setting up at least a 2% pull back next week, or even a major top. So I want to be short by end of the day but like to scalp a few pennies on sds.
bottom line: Today is expiration for options, they probably want to close at high of the day.
The spx is up 11% since the beginning of this rally on Nov 15th.
The average rally between corrections of 5$ or more in the past 25 years (since oct 1987, I dont have the numbers for before then) is 12%.
The rally is 42 days long, not that long by historical standards.
We are only 7% above the 200dma, usually takes 9% or more to start a correction.
Bottom line: Am a nervous short, so will cover is we pull back to spx 1475 for short term profit. Of course, at some point we drop big time, but for now, bulls in control but the end is very near.
Doubled short buying sds at 49.88
We got to 1482.38, does your experience say we go higher than 1483?
I am confused by the high trin, says most money going into stocks that are losing money, which is weird.
Just bought 1k of sds at 49.98. Lucky I sold my 2k afterhours yesterday at 50.8, just took profits and ran. Something said we would be up today in my gut, was right for once.
I think we run to 1490 by open tomorrow, will double up on sds if we do. Also possible intc will not blow out the numbers, and fall hard.
Top is within days, hours, minutes
I have found bear markets more predictable and easier to spot how they end than bulls.
Here are 3 sure fire signs is time to sell and go short:
1. Car sales are getting much worse.
2. Financial stocks are underperforming (although not always a good indicator, did not work in 2010 and 11).
3. The most reliable is when the last rally is sharply up, with a lot more volatility. Look for daily moves up and down of 2% to signal the rally is the last for the bull market. Worked in 1987, 1998, 2000, and 2007. The bull that ended in 1990, topped in oct 1989, then went up and down into July, topping just over dow 3000. That was a good sign, round numbers on the dow. Dow 14000 this time?
The debt ceiling will be raised, but as you posted, the results will be all political nonsense, and not good for the economy. However markets could react big time down until they do something,and then react up big time when they finally agree.
Or not. Everything is possible, nothing is certian.
Am still holding my sds long, but not a huge position. Had 3k of it last week and folded with a tiny gain, much less bought near the close last friday.
Tempted to cover, but I always get in early, and out too early. Holding for sds 52, spx 1450.
My covered calls at 165 should expire worthless at the end of the week, and I also am bullish, though will sell more covered calls if we do rally sharply short term.
Higher highs and lows in short term, bullish.
Good old Louis R. He was not always a bull, but the show did have a bullish inclination. Marty Zweig said to buy tech stocks in Jan 2001, as they had lost half their value by then and looked good. He was wrong. Abby "permabull" Cohen was super bullish and said to be 100% invested, just before the market lost 35% of its value.
I can see how so many advisors see 1575 reached again, and i would not be surprised to see 1500 plus by march. But investing at the end of a bull has only lost me money in the past. Sometimes a lot of money, as an event that will knock the market down 20% in a few days is going to happen soon, and when it does the bulls are hurt fast.
Soon could be the spring, btw.
I remember watching a serious program on public tv every friday back in the late 1980's and 1990's. At the end of Jan 2001, they had some big hitters on, several advisors who were often right. They all agreed 2001 was going to be a big year, especially for tech stocks.
I would never believe any one advisor, although they can all be completely right some of the time.
REmember Robert Prector predicted the crash of 1987, but then said the same in 1988, 1989, etc.
I stand my ground: big bad bear this year, starting in earnest in the summer.
The dow topped in January, the naz made a double top in March. The dow made an important high in may of 1999, when goldman went public, but did climb to a slightly higher high in jan 2000. The naz had a few 10% corrections between may 99 and march 2000, but it doubled in value from may to march, so shorting was major pain.
I dont think we have topped out yet, but the top is close.
`440 to 1450 is my likely target by wednesday on spx.
I remember an important top in Jan 1992 before Billy Bosy inaururation, though the market went sideways down about 7% into Oct that year and then rallied into the end of Jan 1994 afterwards.
I dont believe we will get a straight up the next 2 weeks, more likely down first for a few days and then a rise into the end of the next week. Would not bet the farm on that one, but am trading with that plan for now. I shorted the spx buying sds near the close on friday, after closing my sds position from the day before for a tiny loss earlier in the day.
Will be online tuesday during the market, but not monday.
looks about right, target of spx 1485 makes sense, sds 49.5 or so.
Bullish and bearish indicators:
Sentiment is bearish, both the longer term numbers and the vix is saying top close. However, the put call numbers are neutral and the vix is falling on a 21dma basis which is bullish.
21dma, 50dma. and 200dma are all rising and shorter above longer, all super bullish.
Higher highs and higher lows on most time frames, very bullish.
moon cycle says top is near, but would not put too much on that one.
We never got that extreme overbought on most indicators.
RSI confirms new high.
AD numbers predicting a top is within a couple days.
have fun trading or dont waste your precious life watching red and green bars bouncing up and down.
Why Jan 23? NOt saying is not possible we go up into jan 23, but my work suggests top is closer. However, a quick 3% decline next week followed by a push to new highs on jan 23rd would be classic top.
thanks for your posts.
Bought more sds at 51.1, have a small loss at this moment.
Lunacy says top either today or into monday next year on new moon. never sell the farm and trade that one! But if looking for a top, works well.
bottom line: I like to short on the 4th day after a new high, and today is it. My gut says we go higher into monday, so not shorting fully yet, but plan to be heavily short by early next week.
Europe is a mess, and when it finally tips the scale, look out below. Our govt is heading for a train wreck, and the political will to actually help the economy does not exist.
I am holding a small sds position, but agree we have not seen the top yet. Expecing a pullback to 1450, maybe even 1430 this week, then higher prices.
We are setting up a major top, but this pattern is not a short term major top yet.
Thanks for the posts.
I still believe we are going into a terrible recession, starting in the fall, which means the market tops in the spring.
Would not bet the farm on that, but it means the fed keep pumping until 2014,
Today is a positive so far for the market, watch to see what happens when spx tests 1450. If it holds, then up to 1500, which makes no sense, but when are markets logical?
took a couple penny loss selling my sds at 51.7.
bottom line: We see 1470 by end of the day or tomorrow and then a pullback to 1450 is likely. But the trend is up and although longer term sentiment is pointing to a major top, shorter term we could still see higher prices.
My gut says keep shorting on rallies.
I dont see us dropping below 1450,as rsi is not high enough to trigger a major sell, and price is bullish.
However, the next sell signal could be a big one. Also, vix is below 15 again, sell if it drops below 14.
Am super bearish 6 months down the line, and still bullish the next couple weeks.
upper channel off high of nov 29th, lower channel off low of nov 14.
WE were under the lower for 2 days, and then exploded up. Watch for close over upper to short.
I actually shorted yesterday, and am sure it was a bad move.Will either double down if we end at the high of the day and cover tomorrow, or try and get out with a small gain or loss later today.
I expect this rally will end when price runs over the upper channel for 2 days, which is at 1470 today.
Bottom line: Markets moving on fed printing money and relief the govt did not collapse. The worst is yet to come, and we will be in a terrible bear market by the summer.
If it does, I short heavily. Thanks for the chart, good one.
Good to see your post, and yes, insane as it seems, the full moon and new moon seem to have an effect on the market.
Am still holding some gld, hedged with jan 165 calls, bought a month ago. Not willing to buy much more, instead looking to short next sell signal.
Happy new year my friend.
Got to run, GF wants my rear end, and ladies should never have to wait.
Bottom line: We bounced strong off the first support level which is bullish. The most bullish thing markets can do is go up.
21dma is still trending up, and another run at 1475 would set up the final top and short.
good luck trading,