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Back in the Future
Elon Musk to relive DeLorean's dream!
Watts say Liquid Metal Inside. You say Liquid Metal Outside
Steve Job Tablet Round 2 (iPad vs Newton)!
Double Expresso for Everyone
Apple will swing big part of the growth equation.
Can you share what is Liquid Metal's "unfair advantage" to be a choice of metal for this camera?
Those were options granted for 5 years. They were granted on 2/5/14. Closing price for that day is $0.29.
They don't have to think about it until 2/5/15.
"Who else besides Apple and the shorts would want the price to keep going south?"
Any potential bidder...........e.g. MTRN and their wishful shareholder
This is what makes penny stock fun.
With institution never into the picture, "little" pumper and dumper can actually have their influence and fulfill the agenda.
If investor and mm is smart enough to read in between the line, they actually can "time" their investment for a decent return.
I suspect "melting time" will be dominating factor.
For all these experts in this forum, they can chime in "liquid metal" vs "aluminum"
3 min is one piece "start to end"
Most machinery is done in "pipeline" process.
Exact "thruput" is much faster than 3 min per device.
See the animation clip in ANAX post
http://www.techinsighter.com/blog/2014/2/24/sapphire-liquidmetal-the-ultimate-combination
It is amazing how we jump for joy with $20K transaction. Perhaps we should pay attention more when someone buy/sell a few million shares (which is still chump change)
Good news is that Apple finally let the curtain rise!!
It means Apple has made the decision.
We just do not know if it is yes/or for their commitment.
Investors can interpret any which way they want.
We probably need some "controlled" leak from Apple to push this stock (one way or another).
I am not sure many serious investors are jumping for joy to see a machine ready with no "committed" customer visible....never mind not knowing when.
A few names (other than Apple) would help. Leak Names.......Anyone??
To be specific
A: "Apple is big time, LQMT is peanuts."
B: "Exactly. Apple lawyers have bigger fish to fry than nitpick this nano company ."
Hope this makes more sense
Exactly.
Apple lawyers have bigger fish to fry than nitpick this nano company
Thx for the DD check.
From the short little extract from 3/5/14 10K, it seems not as "black and white" to me.
There is a lot of language only lawyer can debate (not answer)
e.g. Engel machine (standard) + "add on" is what will be delivered to Apple
One can argue Engel machine (standard) has nothing to do with LQMT. However, Engel can be arranged to pay a "broker fee" for typing the knots between Apple and Engel for the standard machine.
Whether or not the agreement can supersede the original MTA is probably something that can be ironed out (but not published) between LQMT and Apple.
Obviously, there is always optimistic and pessimistic point of view
This is not a one time revenue
All machine needs to be maintain, service and replace.
Just take a look at PLUG deal with Walmart
Good start will be understanding what Engel is selling a similar machine today. Understand COGS (Cost of Goods Sold).
Factor in "significant" volume discount to be given to Apple to come up with ASP (Average Selling Price)
Understand thruput of each machine. Assume best case scenario Apple thruput demand. Extrapolate quantity from there.
Multiply quantity by ASP = Revenue
Subtract COGS = Income before General Expense
royalty % is anybody's guess. With 10 years of exclusivity, I would assume LQMT has some leverage. If Engel believe they are the only game in town, they would never sign this exclusivity deal (just to cough up royalty)
Steip obviously knows everything but he has not disclosed anything hence no public FACT.
MTA does not contain anything about Engel royalty that is being spelled out on the 3/5/14 10K.
It is your "personal opinion" that Engel royalty will not contain any machine deliver to Apple
It is my "assumption" that Engel royalty will contain machine deliver to Apple
Until public FACT being disclosed about Engel royalty detail, we have no idea the potential of this revenue
Please correct me if I am wrong.
Do we have any FACTS that the Engel machine being referred here (with revenue potential) is inclusive or exclusive of Apple being the licensee?
Do we have FACTS these machines are "exclusive" of Apple?
This says MTRN will not make a dent in their earning until 3+ years (worse case) from now.
I tend to agree.
You did not project/predict/guess how much will MTRN make 3 years from now (when volume ramp).
This goes back to if LQMT will be out of cash by then (even if they have ton of money coming in just like MTRN).
To me, it all goes to "burn rate".
If LQMT has nothing else beside Apple, they can get rid of all the "expensive baggage" that we all hate. With 20Million LOC and/or that evil stock dilution, I predict they will be alive (to collect the upcoming gold)
If LQMT has something else brewing (via Hauck's magic whip), then that will be a separate ROI study.
Do we have FACT that it is not?
Can we assume these machines are inclusive of Apple?
WHO WILL MAKE MONEY AND WHEN
For the Apple<=>Liquid Metal supply chain which includes LQTM, MTRN, Engel (let's count out VPC and Foxconn for now).
Question we constant debate is who will make money out of this whole deal other than Apple (assuming they choose to productize liquid metal).
The answer to me is EVERYBODY.
However, we never debate WHEN.
Apple being a whale, they have the biggest purchasing power. With Tim Cook being the mastery of the supply chain, they will squeeze every penny out of the supply chain whenever and wherever they can while keeping them happy (just enough).
Apple will lose money early on (for liquid metal/sapphire investment) but will come up big time winner at the end as they for once can fend off the copy cat for some undetermined amount of time.
They probably will tell the supply chain to have the same faith (as they have) about this "investment".
For all the supply chain link (who does not have any exclusive right and/or unique technical know how) will be outbid by their competitors.
As investors to any of those supply chain link, should we be not happy if any of those companies does not have instant income (not to be confused with revenue) boost as a result of this "partnership"?
Investor is smart enough to see thru "potential" and reward all these companies accordingly
Making money is a great metric to measure a company. However, it is not the only metric. This is why we have most successful stock with ultra high PE and some being negative.
I respect your honesty!!!
The truth of the matter is probably not 100% known until LQMT ever report revenue.
Due to the uncertainty of this matter to most investor (including myself), it is what is holding the bottom for this stock for the last 12 months.
Until LQMT declared no revenue ever from Apple indirectly (which Skipp refused to address last CC), the uncertainty (hence the bottom) will continue to hold.
It will hold or jump (if Apple declare product) until either LQMT declare non revenue and/or subsequent Quarterly report (which must spell the truth on this very matter)
IMHO
"All I'm asking is for LQMT to shoot up to $2 or $3 a share...
even through shear momentum by speculators. If that happens.."
I think most investor will agree to this..........
Again my apology to the long timer.
As I stated before, nothing can make PLUG long timer happy either until it hits $150.
Do we know if Apple can bypass MTRN and/or Engel just like they can bypass VPC?
e.g Foxconn
I am referring to technical know how.
Let me try a slightly different analogy.
If it cost you 5 million to build a house, there is no guarantee in life that you MUST get more than 5 million. You will get paid what the "market" value of your house at the time of sale.
This is not Accounting 101 but rather Business 101.
"At what point in a company's history does it achieve a net return on investment of capital"
In most cases, after a successful IPO.
In LQMT case, they did get a great return upon IPO.
I meant "start up" company that is funded by VC
Do you 98% of start up getting nothing back from their investment?
You can only sell your stock what someone else is willing to pay. It has nothing to do with what you paid or costed you.
Rather than trashing the management for selling cheap. We would love to hear how Watt could have done better.
Think Apple as a Venture Capitalist. Do you know how many start up would have died to be in the same room with Apple?
Why do we bend out of shape for $60K of transaction?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=LQMT+Insider+Transactions
If indeed this is 2/3 of Bromage ownership, then he is "insignificant" in any kind of sense.
We need to be careful about the word "insider" for a company of 19 employees.
Outside of Chairman and CEO, most of the so called VP (of 1) has no significant impact. It reflects in their compensation package. In a decent size company, they merely carry the responsibility and compensation of a line manager.
How does LQMT insider trading affect stock price?
Look at the last 2 years. Only Abdi has any significant transaction with 10+ m shares purchase in Feb 2013. If one look back in stock price in that period, it hardly moved the needle.
Notice if you are about to be axed, all your stock option will be gone. You also will have no influence and or knowledge about the company future.
Good news is that they already have a Golden Parachute.
You can assume nothing huge (like pricy take over) is in the horizon.
Apple hype alone will bounce this stock out of penny stock class.
Short term investor will benefit very nicely.
Hype alone cannot last forever. Thanks to Apple Halo, it will last a bit longer.
Long term (future) investor needs to evaluate the non-CE business model (which will benefit with Apple being in the ECO system)
Long term (past) investor............I can't foresee this company can be worth billion in the short term.
Notice ICahn backed off recently.
He understood where all the cash will go.
His short term investment becomes long term.
As Watts stated, Long Term investment are Short Term investment that turns south.
Sapphire (exclusivity thru monopolizing the supply chain) and Liquid Metal (exclusivity thru patent and IP).
Copy cat will be struggling.
Everything takes more time and resource than plan.
Those are nice problem to have......if you have a "target"
During most recent CC, Tim Cook warned investors to bail out if they only bet on near term.
My conjecture is following:
Steip's team has been Apple focus for the past few years.
Now that there appears to be light at the end of this long Apple tunnel. Apple will no longer need the "business" folks. All they need is the tech support team for preproduction and future maintenance.
All the exit plan (for the Apple business team) was ironed out last year and well published.
With Apple no longer needs to be the main (only) thrust, focus now turns to life beyond Apple. New management and leadership need to take place as it is total different type of business (non CE) model. You need "techie" leadership.
Once Apple deal is public, nobody will be beeping (where is the revenue) horn.
Hauck (and his upcoming staff) will be allowed to have a honeymoon period (thanks to the Apple Halo) while the Apple business team is heading to paradise island with the Golden Parachute.
Hauck would have never jump ship without knowing he has Apple up his sleeve.
Same goes with Materion and Engel.
Liquid Metal casing with mirror finish might be scratch free.
It will not be cool with finger print all over it.
Oleophobic coating will compromise display image quality but it will not impact casing.
Why will liquid metal be superior choice in that application?
The patent is related to "Coating".
Both Sapphire and Liquid Metal are "reference"
If someone say Liquid Metal can be painted Gold thru a revolution process, would that be off topic?
Perhaps you should correct them with the appropriate Technical terminology.
Will that alter the message they try to convene?
BTW, this very patent has nothing to do with Liquid Metal.