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MNDO
MIND C.T.I. Ltd. (MIND) develops, manufactures and markets real-time and off-line billing and customer care software for various types of communication providers, including traditional wireline and wireless, voice-over Internet protocol (VoIP), and broadband Internet protocol (IP) network operators, Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access, Inc. (WiMAX) operators, cable operators, third generation (3G) operators and mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs). The Company’s convergent billing and customer care solution supports multiple services, including voice, data and content services, as well as both prepaid and postpaid payment models in a single platform. The prepaid solution authorizes each service and controls each session in real time, taking care that the balance is not exceeded. Postpaid subscribers, including credit-limited and non-limited, retail or business customers, represent the higher average revenue per user (ARPU) market.
Technology Sector Dogs Change Leaders For A Bull Run In April
ATNY
Might be a little early, but looks like a good set up in the making. PPO about to cross (maybe)...that's a nice trigger to look for.
API Technologies Corp. (API) designs, develops and manufactures systems, subsystems, radio frequency (RF) and secure communications products, as well as provides electronics manufacturing and engineering services. Its product lines include engineered products (including unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), aiming systems and synthesizers), secure communications products (including TEMPEST and emanation security, encryption and secure networking products), subsystems and components (including custom hybrids, MIL-STD-1553 Data Bus, terminals, transistors and magnetics), RF and microwave products (including custom filters, amplifiers, connectors and antennas), sensors, and power systems. It operates in two segments: Systems & Subsystems, and Secure Systems & Information Assurance. On June 1, 2011, it acquired Spectrum Control, Inc. On November 29, 2011, API acquired Commercial Microwave Technology, Inc. In March 2012, the Company acquired C-MAC Aerospace Limited (C-MAC)
EXEL
Exelixis, Inc. (Exelixis) is a biotechnology company engaged in developing small molecule therapies for the treatment of cancer. The Company is focusing its resources and development efforts on cabozantinib (XL184). It also has a portfolio of other compounds. Cabozantinib is the inhibitor of MET in clinical development and is being evaluated in a development program encompassing multiple cancer indications.
HAIN short
Can't fight the market. This one looks like it will succumb if the market continues in current course. The fall below the median band on the longer term BBCCI is the confirming signal.
This also illustrates why I look at the Bollingerized CCI since the drama of the signals happens well above the 100 line (or below -100) much of the time. Much faster.
ABC
AmerisourceBergen Corporation (AmerisourceBergen) is a pharmaceutical services company, with operations primarily in the United States and Canada. Servicing both healthcare providers and pharmaceutical manufacturers in the pharmaceutical supply channel, the Company provides drug distribution and related services. It distributes a offering of brand-name and generic pharmaceuticals, over-the-counter healthcare products, home healthcare supplies and equipment, and related services to a variety of healthcare providers primarily located in the United States and Canada, including acute care hospitals and health systems, independent and chain retail pharmacies, mail order pharmacies, medical and dialysis clinics, physicians and physician group practices, long-term care and other alternate site pharmacies, and other customers.
Thanks. Yes, I will post some set ups that are catching my attention this weekend. Looking for a rally here at some point this upcoming week. A lot of charts starting to look similar (or else a whole lot are going to be smacked down).
I finally figured out a screen based on BB's on CCI at Stock Fetcher. But I still like to visualize in esignal not the least of which is for the ease on the eyes.
I'm still an end-of-day apprentice until its time for the 401K to move to an IRA.
Regards,
stiv
I caught your board and noticed the use of BB's on indicators. I use the Bollingerized CCI extensively looking for confirming crosses of the median line at different intervals (10, 50, 100 etc). My set up on CLF is still a little early for entry as I would look for the cross of the median band on the medium interval on the chart here. The cross could happen soon or could be repelled by the median band and have to back build a little more- probably depends on what market does.
Daily charts are on usual CCI34 and CCI100 sells below zero. Short term breadth failed at lower highs.
Copper needs to hold 3.2.
Energy stocks are breaking down but crude is trying to hold its 200dMA.
54
Goldstuff below shows a ray of hope with XAU bouncing support near 190 and GLD bouncing near 160. Portfolio took GDX positions today but a likely recession could see these much lower; PRPFX provides more cautious exposure with a bond cushion.
[img]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$XAU&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p35108659191&r=7866
[/img]
Dollar above needs to fail upper 78s resistance to keep goldbugs happy. Usual charts follow. Good luck trading, Don
Sorry to see the demise of CS. Though I don't post there much anymore (ironically just made a couple of playful recs in the last week or so for the first time in years), I still read and follow the COMPX board regularly.
In fact, there are two boards that I read daily. One is the COMPX board, and the other is here on Ihub, Zeev's Turnip's board,
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=1125
These two boards remind me quite a bit of each other. For those who want some equally good info as you CS regulars have provided over the years, I highly recommend it.
The ultimate test of robustness for your potential new home is to have dww post one of his updates. Someone get Don to give it a test and see if it crashes the site.
Wishing you all the best!
The ISEE has never been lower. The eod number yesterday and short and medium term ma's are all at new lows. Crazy low readings...
The ISEE imo has fallen through the floor. Instead of looking at the daily reading, I like to watch an 8-day moving average of a cumulative reading of net daily changes. This 8-day build up of sentiment on either end of the spectrum seems more informative than the magnitude of daily oscillations.
So, when this ma moves above 50 a top generally is imminent. When it heads under -50, a bottom is close or reversal has just happened. The reading the last three days has been -54, -54 and -61 today. These are the lowest readings since April 03. This is also the first break of +/- 50 since the Jan 05 high. Before that, the Aug/Sep 04 low.
It doesn't give off this type of signal very often, so when it does, I pay attention. And the signal says too much fear, buy time is near.
Regards,
Stiv
Here's an update on a couple that I work with..
Stiv
Should Microsoft Break Up, on Its Own?
COMMENT FROM breakingviews
DOW JONES REPRINTS
Should Microsoft Break Up, on Its Own?
Instead of Just 1's and 0's,
A Suggestion, in 3 Parts;
Split May Lift Spirit, Stock
November 26, 2005; Page B16
Bill Gates fought furiously against a breakup of Microsoft in 2001 when the Justice Department went after it. But it may be time for the software king to think of splitting up his empire of his own free will. That's one of the few ways he could liberate Microsoft from a cat's cradle of bureaucracy that's stifling entrepreneurial spirits and has led to a stagnant stock price.
Microsoft certainly knows there's a problem. "Complexity kills. It sucks the life out of developers and makes products difficult to build," was how Ray Ozzie, the chief technology officer, put it in an internal memo last month. Microsoft now has 60,000 employees. For an old-line manufacturer, that wouldn't be huge. But for a supposedly creative organization, it's obese.
There are two main problems. First, decision-makers in one part of the organization must make sure they don't conflict with one of Microsoft's multifarious technical or business priorities. The need for everything to conform with the Windows operating system -- which, in turn, is undergoing a long-winded multi-year overhaul -- saps everybody's energies. It's doubtful that even Steve Ballmer, Mr. Gates's right-hand man and a bulldozer of a figure, has the drive to break through.
The second problem is that Microsoft is losing the talent war to the likes of Google. Sure, it still has the world's largest base of accomplished programmers. But the era of gold rush option grants and cutting-edge work is over. If you want to make millions and have fun, Redmond, Wash., is no longer your first destination.
It is no wonder, as Mr. Ozzie pointed out, that Google is eating Microsoft's lunch in Internet search; that Skype has done the same in Internet telephony; and that Adobe Systems has cornered the document-imaging market.
Splitting the group into three bits would be like Alexander the Great cutting the Gordian Knot, a piece of rope so complex it couldn't be untied. One would focus on operating systems. It would be a big monopolistic cash cow, with about $24 billion of sales next year and $11.5 billion of operating profit. Give it a public-utility-style multiple of 12 and it would be valued at $138 billion.
The second part would produce Microsoft's popular suite of Office products. Microsoft Office, too, would be a cash cow -- with $12 billion of sales and $6.7 billion of operating profit. On the same utility multiple, it would be valued at $80 billion. In the past, of course, Office benefited from its ties to Windows. Indeed, Mr. Gates was able to use his monopoly in Windows to build one in desktop software, squashing the likes of Lotus and WordPerfect.
But this linkage is now, arguably, a handicap. Antitrust authorities have insisted on so many rules that Microsoft is no longer able to give in-house developers much of an edge. Meanwhile, new rivals are writing little packets of software in record time and distributing them over the Internet. Freed from bureaucracy, an independent Office company could do the same too.
The final business, call it Blue Sky, would contain most of Microsoft's newish stuff -- the Xbox games business, the MSN Internet portal, Hotmail and the like. This division is barely, if at all, profitable. But it should have about $7.6 billion in sales next year, more than Google.
Now Blue Sky wouldn't merit Google's astronomic multiple of 17 times sales or even Yahoo's multiple of 11 times sales. But give it a multiple of six times sales and it would be worth $46 billion. It would also have a better chance in the talent war. Developers might like Blue Sky's options.
Unfortunately, a breakup wouldn't be a quick fix to Microsoft's moribund stock. Add the three bits and chuck in the company's $40 billion cash pile and you get to $304 billion -- only a touch above its current market cap. But there would, at least, be a chance of each business moving forward. Keep them tethered and it's more likely that stagnation will be followed by retreat.
Google vs. Microsoft
In its first decade as a public company, Microsoft produced excellent shareholder returns. At well above $400 a share, Google currently is priced to succeed Microsoft. However, during its early years the software giant's stock was much more conservatively valued than Google's is today.
Google's sales and profits are increasing fast. But what multiple should be placed on these figures? Low barriers to entry into the Internet search engine field might suggest a low valuation multiple. On the other hand, Google is entering new areas -- such as mapping, mobile search and wireless Internet. It could be argued that Google shares have potential additional value that would flow from profits to be earned from future business developments.
Given the uncertainty of future revenues, it is impossible to calculate with any precision a fundamental value for Google's shares. Yet whatever happens to Google's business, it is unlikely that investors who buy in at the current share price will make out as well as Microsoft shareholders did in its early days.
It all comes down to price. By comparison with Google, Microsoft was relatively cheap in its early years. In the five years after its 1986 initial public offering, Microsoft's average forward price-earnings ratio (based on year-end share prices) was less than 25 times. Yet Google shares now trade on around 70 times forecast earnings. The search-engine company is currently valued at more than three times the average sales multiple of the young Microsoft. Yet Google is not growing that much faster today than Microsoft was in its early days.
Investors don't make money from buying great companies. They enjoy exceptional returns only when they acquire great businesses at reasonable prices. Investors who bought Microsoft shares a couple of years after its IPO could still look forward to annual returns close to 50% during the next five years. At current valuations, the prospects for Google investors are a lot less exciting.
-- Robert Cyran, Hugo Dixon and Edward Chancellor
As an ISEE watcher, I would say yesterday's number is likely indicating short term weakness. I might consider it on par with the 242 on Oct 24th and the 237 on Oct 3rd. Both readings were followed by a small drop over the respective next couple of days.
As an indicator of more long term market change, the ISEE has been very quiet for a while...really since last Dec's prolonged extreme readings. I track a few derivatives of the ISEE including the running cumulative change, which I consider an indicator of a build up of buying or selling pressure. If the 12-day MA of this cumulative reading hits either +50 (top) or -50 (bottom), that's extreme. The cumulative has been flatlining around 0 for a while now.
For a chart of the ISEE and my derivatives, check here:
http://incrediblyjejune.com/images/isee%2011_21_05.jpg
For a really long, drawn out snapshot of the data (will take a long time to load), check here:
http://incrediblyjejune.com/images/isee%20data%2011_21_05.jpg
Best,
Stiv
test
Bruce,
I appreciate your updates on Z's board! I can't remember if you originally posted this link during last year's season, but I check it constantly for one stop shopping.
http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html
Where in Fla are you?
Also enjoy the info here very much! Been a thief for a while.
Good luck!!!
Because it is an OEM and not a Retail version? Click on the OEM link from their site...stiv
What is OEM Software?
1-866-449-5567
Your Source for Wholesale Prices!
Government
Email Us
OEM Software - is a full version which includes the CD-ROM, the
Certificate of Authenticity (COA), and the product key codes. These
elements are all you will need to load and run the software. The
software runs exactly the same way as the full retail version.
The differences between OEM and full retail are:
1.) Microsoft does not supply technical support on their OEM products
2.) OEM software does not include a paper manual
3.) OEM software does not come in a retail box. OEM cannot be used
to upgrade from a previous version (i.e. Windows 98 or Windows
2000). However, you will be able to upgrade OEM to a future release.
Please contact us if you have any further question regarding
OEM software.
eagle,
I just came back online after being down for a week. Lost my motherboard due to old age. I went with a barebones system with new case, motherboard, CPU, memory, video card, CDROM. It came with a new 160GB HD, but I really didn't want the headache of starting with a clean install of XP, losing all of my settings, and having to build back all of my programs.
So, I decided to try to use my old hard drives with all of the new hardware. The problem is it just doesn't work that way. An old HD won't boot with significant new hardware.
What I did learn, which may be helpful, is that I could try a repair install of XP over my old hard drive. Sure enough, I did a repair install, and it made it generic enough that I was able to boot into Windows. I didn't lose anything of significance. It kept all of my programs and settings.
For some info on repair install, check here:
http://www.michaelstevenstech.com/XPrepairinstall.htm
For the new motherboard/old hard drive dilemma, try here:
http://ask-leo.com/must_i_reformat_if_i_replace_my_motherboard.html
Best,
stiv
ACDI broke out to a new high today on pretty good volume!!
tradestar,
The two things I would look at are the starting dollar amount and the buy and sell share amounts. You may not have enough in the stash to make a trade.
Stiv
Thanks for the heads up, Myst! In Jacksonville most of the week, so I will keep an end of day eye on it. I did take a position with ACDI a week ago. It may be back on it's stroll upward. Done well with puts on the home builders. They're due for a bounce, eh?
Stiv
SNDK is running strong in tech land, too!
Oh yeah! Looks good Myst, looks verrry good. I feel a Myst pick in the near future. Got to make a plan for Monday.
Thanks!
Stiv
Yes sir, that's a pretty healthy run up since May. I usually look at CDE and MNG on the low end and RGLD and NEM on the top end. GG looks quite strong moving up to new all time highs. How about silver? Seems to have lagged the move in gold just a bit. I watch SIL there...maybe a breakout soon? I've got to pull up some oil:gold stock spreads I started a while ago. Maybe gold can play catch up to oil for a while?
Stiv
Myst,
Yes on both of these. Currently in GNPI (Glen's choice) from recent lows. ACDI I am more intrigued with. I think it is a real company with an aggressive growth strategy in the health care industry. I nearly got back in on a partial yesterday. I was hoping for more of a knife fall as those down swoons are very tradable opportunities...not that I've capitalized on them much. The blue triangles look very compelling and will watch on Monday.
CHAR looks sweet. They read like a high risk operation producing oil in Kazakhstan, but high reward too, eh? These ob's do produce some funny settings on xd!
BTW...love Google Earth! Thanks!
Best,
Stiv
Learned something new today...for my old otc.bb setups, you have to add .ob after the symbol or else an error message results. The two old setups I have been after are ACDI.OB and GNPI.OB
Best to all!
stiv
Great call, Myst!!
Myst,
There's no sense shorting the oil sector, but this is theoretically tempting. MRI as high as I've seen it. Have you looked much in the oil patch, Techno-Myst?
Good read, thanks for posting. She could have amplified the impact this is having on the automotive supply community, which has been bled dry by the OEM's to pay for their business missteps.
Alan Abelson in Barron's had a great quip going back a couple of years in a commentary on the Big 3's incentive frenzy...something like, Detroit finally figured out they can sell as many cars as they want as long as they give them away.
And their supply base paid for the incentives just so the automakers could keep the whole thing from collapsing. Now that there are storm clouds on the economic horizon, the dip in sales is a death knell for many auto suppliers.
Such as the daily dose of...
April 27, 2005
BY ALEJANDRO BODIPO-MEMBA
FREE PRESS BUSINESS WRITER
In what is becoming a fairly regular and disconcerting occurrence in today's auto industry, Meridian Automotive Systems Inc. filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Tuesday, citing the high cost of steel and increased pricing pressure from its automaker customers.
http://www.freep.com/money/autonews/meridian27e_20050427.htm
Hey Myst! I think you are right on with your comments. GW looks like a number of other oil patch plays which have bounced the last three days and are pushing for another breakout. That Goldman Sachs oil spike alert was wild and pretty indicative of what you are saying. Yet, with increasing global demand and shrinking resources...who knows, they could be on the mark.
Say, can you check and see if you are getting all of the data for ^OSX through the Yahoo data source in XD? I can't seem to get data from this week. 3/24 is the last data point that comes up.
The charts are my own standard end-of-day Excel stuff. You can download all historical data from their site in a .csv format. You can also sign up to have the end-of-day number emailed to you.
They did start providing intraday numbers some months ago. I don't get to watch much during the day, but I do peek in and find that a few days have some pretty interesting extremes that are reached.
Regarding their methodology, I also like how they measure individual investor opening long positions (calls or puts) as opposed to institutional or position closing transactions.
Keep us posted and we'll compare notes as we approach key turning points.
shack, Zeev, all…a quick update on the ISEE index, which is the International Securities Exchange measure of equity c/p activity.
For the official word: http://www.iseoptions.com/marketplace/statistics/sentiment_index.asp
I follow the daily numbers as well as some home cooked derivatives.
I had a similar Dec time frame as shack for an extreme on the ISEE, which signaled a market top and impending turnaround. The daily number had a blow off on 12/27 of 278 (2.78 times more calls as puts). In fact, that was the final straw.
The first shot over the bow was on 12/10 (I only saw it in the rear view mirror, though). I started tracking in early Jan the cumulative ISEE, which is a running total of the daily change. When the 8-day ma of the cumulative ISEE goes over 50, a top is near. When it goes under -50, look for a bottom. On 12/10 it broke through 50, on 12/15 it broke 60, and on 12/27 the daily number popped the ma one last time over 50.
To keep from ‘over-addleizing’ myself, I maintain the directional bias of the last turn until the opposite cumulative extreme is hit. I am suspicious of this indicator but quite compelled to it because it has correlated well to three key market turns, the Jan ’04 top, an early Sep ’04 bottom (market bottom in Aug), and this past December’s top.
It’s also an infant of an indicator, which makes it fun to watch it develop. It was born during the late ‘02/early ’03 market bottom, and thus the cumulative numbers started out under -50 for quite a while until it gained its footing.
Interestingly, there was some excitement last week on 3/23 when the daily number dipped to 119 and the cumulative reached -35. I was hoping for an extreme drop off that could have taken us to the next turn. Unfortunately, the last few days have jumped higher (173, 195, 166) putting it back into the middling middle and likely negating a near term meaningful bottom.
Best,
Stiv
The MRI looks good, and a short term bounce seems likely. It may want to build a base for a while, so it could stay somewhat oversold for a bit. The pattern from Jan till now looks similar to the mid-April to mid-July drop and bounce.
What are your prospects for the market, Myst? Can we get this thing to turn for Don's seasonal buy?
http://www.mrci.com/kcbt/vl/f0003.asp
Here's another that I'm on the lookout for a bounce or bottom to show...Stiv
Thanks, Myst! One to watch. Here's one that has played nicely a few times for me over the last year. It xd's pretty well, too.
Hi Mojo,
Glad to see you back. Here's one that I am trying to keep an eye on. My problem is usually seeing buying opportunities pass by because my limited account is fully in play. Have to be patient.
Best of luck!
Hey Myst!
Let's see if we can get some good setups. Here's one that has held up well over the long run:
It's not the lead dog, but it is one to keep an eye on.
Stiv