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No law against doing something dumb like selling CXPO at this level. That is my bid sitting at 9.90, partial fill so far, but I'll take more. Just wish I hadn't started my buying last week.
CHE.UN - Looks like their sulphuric plant in Beaumont TX that had the accident which injured 2 will be closed for about a month. Plant employs about 50 people but they do have business interruption insurance to cover losses from shutdown so it shouldn't have much effect on income after reimbursement. Loss of acid supply in an already tight market may even cause prices to rise further.
http://biz.yahoo.com/cnw/080822/chemtrade_plant_updat.html?.v=1
Wade, re CNOA I've also seen those posts. The assumption is that since rice sales from their rice crop are down, the company must be scaling back. The problem I have with that assumption is that the crop is harvested annually, in the summer. Once they sell that crop, there is nothing left to sell until the new crop is ready. More than likely they sold it off earlier than usual to raise money for their new acquisitions. Their business reselling rice did increase and that also makes sense. They can always buy more inventory from others. Also, last march 30 in a PR, the CEO even stated that they are increasing rice production:
"Throughout the beginning of 2008 China Organic Agriculture has continued to meet its rice sales targets and shipments to its customers. None of its operations were hampered by the large-scale winter storms that affected many parts of China at the end of January and the Company has already begun seeding and preliminary plantation work. In addition to expanding its rice production capabilities, China Organic Agriculture is also looking for additional agricultural and food related acquisitions and asset purchases."
The logic behind the winery purchase in CA eludes me although the company says it will provide them with a fast start into the booming chinese premium wine market. The winery had been producing an average annual income of $500K for its old owners and that won't even cover the interest on their loan to buy it. It apparently was a relative of the CEO who made the down payment for CNOA (Xirong Xu).
Bottom line, I think the company will show strong profits from its rice crop in Q3 and Q4 which are coming up next. Seems to me that this stock is extremely oversold here although someone is very busy dumping shares ( I suspect Wu Xia, former president)
CNOA tim, the seller must have gone to lunch. My 22c offer is sitting unfilled..... er, never mind, I have a fill now.
tim, CNOA is down bigtime again today on huge volume of 1+ million shares (21-22c). It could be Wu Xia selling. She is the one who sold 10 million shares last april which probably helped to trigger the big drop since. That sale also left her with 5 million shares which is just under the 10% threshold. She could well be selling those without having to report them. She also resigned as president and on the BOD back in march 2007, so she is apparently no longer involved in mgmt. Hopefully, she is just about done cashing in her chips and moving on.
I also checked Sonoma CA county records to see who owned the vineyard that CNOA says they purchased and it confirmed that CNOA is the owner of record. I wish they would wrap up that Dahlian purchase. Maybe then the current CEO will do what he promised and start buying back shares. If legit, and I believe it is, this one is now about the cheapest value I have ever seen.
tim, re CNOA, I paid $.249 which remains the current ask. Decided not to worry about a $.002 spread at this level.
CNOA - Capitulation? Someone is throwing in the towel today. Down 7c to 25c on very heavy volume. Now down to a trailing PE of 1, well under tangible bv, and their strong quarters are coming up next. Picked up some more shares here.
CNEH oil pricing- Here's an email from a CNEH exec explaining the company's oil pricing last quarter. Price was lower because it is based on month old prices and it is also heavy sour, not the benchmark light sweet crude. It was posted on IV:
Thank you for your interests in CNEH, the company is going to update our website to provide more information on the oil pricing system. As all the documents are in Chinese right now, so we have to interpret them into English and post it on the website within two weeks.
However, I can give you some basic information for your reference.
First of all, according to geo-engineer’s report our oil quality is different to WTI and Brent, our oil is heavy sour and its quality is very similar to DaQing China crude oil, API 33, Specific Gravity 0.8560, or Cinta Indonesia crude oil, API 33.4, Specific Gravity 0.8539. In contrast WTI has API 40. So the price has a discount compare to WTI or Brent.
Second, as we disclose in 10QSB, that the oil price we receive for current month is determined by prior MOPS price on Cinta Indonesia oil. In more details, for example, for the price of June was determined by the mean of prices between April 26 to May 25. July was mean of prices between May 26 to June 25, etc.
Third, the price that company is getting paid in Chinese currency, i.e. RMB. And China is using Tons as oil measurement unit compare to Barrels in western world. So in our financial statement, in order to meet U.S. GAAP, we have to convert all the variables into western units, or dollars and barrels respectively. So considering the exchange rates etc. there may have some MINOR loss/gain to the originals.
Fourth, we tracked all countries spot price FOB, please refer to the below:
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
All Countries Spot Price FOB Weighted by Estimated Export Volume (Dollars per Barrel)
Start date End date Price
3/1/08 3/7/08 98.01
3/7/08 3/14/08 102.56
3/14/08 3/21/08 102.03
3/21/08 3/28/08 99.32
3/28/08 4/4/08 98.39
4/4/08 4/11/08 103.22
4/11/08 4/18/08 107.28
4/18/08 4/25/08 111.03
4/25/08 5/2/08 110.21
5/2/08 5/9/08 115.11
5/9/08 5/16/08 119.91
5/16/08 5/23/08 123.35
5/23/08 5/30/08 126.06
avg 108.96
mean 108.58
Q2 reported revenues: $14,167,538
Q2 reported volume in bbls: 135,193
Q2 average pricing: $104.79
As you can see the variance is not huge to world’s average/mean price, and the minor discount is mainly due to the fact of lower oil quality in our opinion.
In conclusion, above oil pricing system is implemented all cross China. What price CNEH and other private oil producers get paid is nearly same to the PetroChina and Sinopec do as well.
Time will prove CNEH’s business, everything is in black and white and the company has increased transparency to the investor community and we will continue this effort in future. The ultimate goal of the foresighted management team is to create tremendous value to our long-term investors who is willing to share the company growth. Things cannot just happen over night, the company is on the good track and moving to the right direction and the management strives to take the company to bigger, stronger, higher levels. So far we are pleased that we have delivered everything we have promised, and we are still working hard and stick on this corporate value and philosophy, i.e. Under promise, over delivery.
Hope my email can answer your questions, and if you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to contact me or Mr. Bill Zima from ICR IR Inc. Thank you.
Chao Jiang
EVP of Finance
China North East Petroleum Holdings
445 Park Ave, New York, NY 10022
www.cnepetroleum.com
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CNEH ,bobwins- It looks to me like you are double charging on the govt tax over $60/ bbl. You already included half of the 40% tax with the calculation of the tax rate for prices exceeding $40/bbl.
Another way to figure it is:
surcharge is 20% on prices from $40 to $60/ bbl=$4 /bbl
surcharge is 40% on prices above $60/ bbl,
so at $104.51 average= .40 x 44.51= $17.80/ bbl
So total tax = $4 + $17.80 = $21.80/bbl.
$21.80 x 135,193 bbls= $2.95 mil.
That is a little less than the $3.17 mil they show as owed, so still some discrepancy.
Also prices received for the Q are based on average prices for the march through may period. The high prices in June will now show up in the next quarter.
CNEH Wade, the company received $105/ bbl and that pricing is now based on what prices averaged the previous month on oil traded in Singapore. The govt surcharge tax is then taken out of that. Surcharge was $3.17 Mil, divided by 135,193 bbls production = $23.47/ bbl.
Actually the tax paid seems a bit high to me. Assuming $105/ bbl, they would owe:
20% tax on amount over $40/bbl:
20% x $65/bbl x 135,193 bbls= 1.76 mil
Additional 20% tax on amount over $60/bbl
20% x $45 x 135,193= 1.22 mil
1.76 mil + 1.22 mil = $2.98 mil vs $3.17 mil billed.
I think they sold off after earnings because people were disappointed that earnings came in at 19c- while many expected 22-24c. However the new pricing arrangement also means they will net more in the current quarter than they would have before. For the first two months of the current quarter, CNEH should receive about $130/ bbl based on average prices, well above the $105 bbl they received in Q2
LTUS -Conf call. The CFO said that the company still expects to meet its 2008 "make good" income target of $13.1 mil. To do so, net income will need to triple in the second half vs the first half. They also expect the sales expenses to drop going forward from the huge 30% of sales in the last quarter to a 10-20% range going forward (historically they were running about 10%). Thats a forward PE of less than 2 but the market is saying thanks but we'll just wait and see- volume and stock price remain very anemic. I have trouble seeing how they are going to come up with $70 mil neded to get the new production facility up and running by the end of 2010 without stock dilution along the line. The company was rather vague on the details. They say that they plan to use a combination of cash flow, bank loans, and govt loans and grants. The $5 mil private placement they did earlier this year would have to approve any new issuance of stock. One caller suggested that they renew their agreement with lotus east annually so everything is not at risk of expiring in 2016. Personally, I like that idea. CFO agreed and said they would look into it.
LTUS r59- Their report would have been even better than CHME except for those commissions and bonuses. Sales up 44% and gross profit was up 140%. But selling expenses were up an incredible 400%+. Somebody must be getting rich and it sure isn't me..Stock is down about 10c now. The conf call on monday should be interesting.
I'm off to Reno for a long weekend.
CHBP earned 2.2c vs .2c a year ago and 1.4c preceeding Q. Revs were up 73%. Someone was supplying shares at 25.1c and I grabbed some of them.
TBTC- KIK, Current Q was lousy, but sounds like some excellent quarters are likely coming. I'm holding here.
Another significant milestone in Table Trac's quest to not only define its markets for growth and expansion, but to further separate itself from competitors came in 2006 when it launched new products in the areas of Class II S2S gaming communications and related Class II S2S support for promotions administration and management, and fully integrating it with all its Class III functionality. Table Trac was the first and, to the best of our knowledge, is still the only system capable of fully automating and managing an entire slot floor in a mixed Class II/Class III environment. To date, other companies who make that claim for their system require the hand entering of machine meter values for, at least a portion of their slot floor. Management believes this development has greatly enhanced the Company's opportunity for new system sales; this has been demonstrated by the significant growth from 2005 through the second quarter of 2008. We have more new contracts for system sales in Q2 08 than in any previous quarter in our history. The Company backlog of system installations at June 30, 2008 and December 31, 2007 was approximately $4.0 and $2.3 million respectively.
CNOA - Don't forget growing rice and now growing grapes is a very seasonal business. Last year, CNOA earned 5c in the first 6 months and then 22c in the second half.
tim re CNOA, How did you come up with 6c? I expect them to better than that. Bellismo winery caused much of the increase in SGA. Company won't get meaningful revs from it until after the grapes are harvested but should be a seasonal contributor to profits in the fall. For the year, I would hope it will at least break even not including interest carry on the loan at $900K/year otherwise why buy it? Dahlian remains a question mark but I would assume it will also be a positive contributor to profits. Company earned $13.5 mil last year but this year they will have to pay 25% tax on income. If they make the same net income, less $900K, less 25% taxes, that would be about $9.5 mil or 18c/ share.
With the SP at 38c, the market seems to expect 6c or worse. Hope the market is wrong.
NM MSGI, I know you were inquiring about the safety of the div. I meant to say that the prospect that it might be a safe dividend if all their rates and revs were locked in got me looking into it. It no longer appears (to me) that the current high rate is safe since only a portion of their rates and revs are locked in over the next 5 years and they will likely have some large capital investments coming up with all the new tankers coming online. Also interesting that the market did a big ho-hum when the higher distribution rates were announced. This stock was twice its current price when they only had a 9c distribution.
CNOA- Announced Q2 results- No surprise that they reported a slight loss of .2c vs 1c in their historically slowest Q. Revs were up 60%. Expenses of that winery were enough to cause the loss: from the PR:
Although the second quarter is historically our slowest quarter, we realized a 60% increase in sales compared with the same period in 2007,” said Changqing Xu, Chief Executive Officer of China Organic Agriculture. “Our net loss of $121,000 is primarily attributable to higher levels of general and administrative expenses as well as interest expenses incurred as part of various strategic growth initiatives, including our new operations in the US. These additional costs are necessary in order to sustain our ventures into wine and other agricultural products.”
Also still some more waiting on the Dahlian acquisition although $10.6 million has been deposited in an escrow account. PR says: This cash transfer was performed as an assurance that both parties are committed to this transaction and symbolizes one of the last steps in closing this acquisition.
Only a little movement in the SP. It has already been beaten down to 38c from a high of $4 last winter. Their historically strongest quarter is now the coming one. I'm thinking the SP will begin to move upward in anticipation of that number over the next 3 months.
NM msgi, your comment about the safe 16% dividend caught my eye. The PR I think you were referring to talked about all 10 vessels being fully chartered for a period of 4.9 years securing cash flow. However they have many more vessels than that either chartered or owned (62 at year's end). Also a merryl lynch presentation from last June discusses them having contracted revs of 98.6% in '08, 66.7% in '09, and 37.9% in '10, and 24.1% in 2011, but that doesn't include their entire fleet either. Also they are adding a lot of tonnage between now and early 2010 according to the same presentation. Here's a link:
http://www.navios.com/InvestorRelations/default.asp
Bottom line is I'm not sure how much is now firmly contracted over the next 5 years but it is less than 100%. I'm also wondering if any taxes are deducted from distributions before they get into the hands of US stockholders (as is the current situation with canroys).
SMTX -layed a big egg and it wasn't a golden one either. Reported a loss of 43c after restructuring expenses (loss of 4c without restructuring expenses) vs a profit of 1c a year ago and 3c the previous quarter. The good times keeps getting moved back with these guys. Last Q in the CC, they said this quarter would be a strong one and April had been a record month. Now in today's CC, they say next quarter will be good. This time, I won't be around to find out if they are right for a change. Sold my remaining shares.
AEY- Lousy earnings report. Sales down 25% vs strong year ago quarter (down 4% sequentially). Earnings were 6c vs 19c a year ago although that includes a $500K writeoff on some legacy boxes. Earnings would have been OK at 11c without that. Company is optimistic long term but sees continued challenges for now. Stock is beaten down to 4 year low today. Company is holding a conf call later this morning. Guess I'll hold for now.
From the pr:
Mr. Chymiak further stated, ``While the cable industry is currently facing a slow down, the long-term outlook for ADDvantage remains strong. We continue to see a need for equipment upgrades in several large regions within the United States and expect the introduction of new competition to force the existing MSOs to upgrade their plants. The expected upgrades, coupled with OEMs having begun to scale back the manufacturing of equipment due to the decrease in current demand, will allow us to play a bigger role when the decisions to upgrade are executed.
China stocks set to rise after Olympics? The author (Sunny Wang) claims that in the last 6 Olympics the host country's stock market indexes on average have declined slightly in the 6 month period before the event. However, in the 6 month period following the Olympics, the host countries stock index went up an average of 19% and in the year that followed, stocks were up an average of 26%. Hope the averages hold this time.
Someone once described the Olympics as an event that not only changes a person, but also an enterprise, a city, and even a country.
The 29th Olympiad, the Beijing Olympic Games, starts this week and China, a mysterious country with 5000 years of history, will become center of the world’s attention. The enormous changes that took place in this old country over the past 30 years have given people of the world more imagination and expectation about China. But the more interesting question to those foreign enterprises and investors who pay close attention to the future of the Chinese economy is how the Olympics is going to affect the Chinese economy. In other words, what economic benefits the Olympics will bring about in China? Or, Will the Olympic Games become a booster to the Chinese economy?
An authoritative report shows that the 1984 Olympics brought 3.29 billion USD in earnings to South California; the 1992 Barcelona Olympics helped Catalonia earn 26.048 billion USD; the 1996 Atlanta Olympics acquired 5.1 billion USD for Georgia; the 2000 Sydney Olympics secured 6.3 billion USD for New South Wales and Australia.
Then, what will the Olympics bring to the Chinese economy and China’s stock market?
On July 13, 2001, Beijing was awarded the right to host the 29th Olympiad. 4 days later, the State Statistic Bureau spokesman, Ye Zhen, indicated that the success in bidding the Olympics will bring about an average 0.3% to 0.4 % annual growth in China’s GDP in the following 7 years. A day later, Beijing Statistic Bureau announced that Beijing Olympics will help Beijing secure an annual 2% plus increase in annual economic growth.
As Beijing Olympics begin, experts predict that during the Olympics, the stock market in China is going to be relatively stable. Since the Chinese stock market is strongly affected by the government’s policies, and stability is the key to the success of hosting the Olympics, the Chinese government will keep the stock market stable by issuing stabilizing policies.
In the last 6 Olympic Games, there had been an average 8.18% increase in all hosting countries’ major stock indexes in the 12 months period prior to the Olympics due to investors’ optimism in the positive impact the Olympics would have on the hosting country’s economy. However, there had been an average decline of 0.16% in the 6 months period prior to the Olympics in major stock indexes of those hosting countries. Barcelona alone had a decline of 16.24%. The reason behind the Spanish stock market decline was the economic recession of the European Union in the 1990’s. The reasons of the decline in other hosting countries are as follows:
The Macroeconomic standing of that period was not looking good.
Investors thought that the impact of the Olympic Games on the economy would be over and “valley effect” might appear, therefore the capital market reacted earlier.
The Olympic-induced opportunities split the flow of capital for traditional business investments. Those hosting countries showed different stock index performances, demonstrating different opinions on the effect of the Olympics economy.
However, in the 6 months after the Olympic Games, there was an average 19.12% increase in those hosting countries stock indexes. In the 12 month after the Olympics, the stock indexes had a strong 26.14% increase. The reasons for the increases after the Olympics are as follows:
Investors showed confidence in domestic economic growth;
Investments in traditional business during the Olympics returned to the capital market.
The above-mentioned two factors caused the increase on the stock market 6 months after the sporting event. The infrastructure construction, system establishment, and environmental protection among others for the Olympics gave a lasting boost to the hosting countries’ economy. Therefore, although GDP growth in those hosting countries showed a certain degree of slow-down, generally speaking, the hosting countries’ economy maintained a relatively high speed of growth. What’s more, the reduction of bubbles in the post-Olympics capital market ensured steady and benign growth.
History clearing indicates that the lasting winner of the Beijing Olympics will be the Beijing economy.
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CHGY, Northernlights- thanks for sharing, a couple of questions:
Did the CFO say the 3000 tons/day production level is already being met? Based on the 10Q (for period ending May 31), it sounds like it would take much longer to hit 1 million tons of production. From the 10Q:
Coal Group produces approximately 500,000 tons of coal per year based on current levels of input and has the capacity of producing approximately up to 1,200,000 tons subject to enhancement of productions lines in the next 2 years. Coal Group is in the process of increasing its capacity.
Also, did the CFO have any comments about progress with transportation difficulties? In the 10Q, it sounded like transportation was their #1 obstacle to increased production last Q:
For the three month period ended May 31, 2008, revenues for Coal Group were $ 2,358,615 in 2008 compared to $ 3,290,778 in the comparable three months of 2007. The decrease of $ 932,163 is as a result of reduced capacity of railway transportation. Transportation has always been a challenge and with new routes being constructed, some routes previously used were not operational. The decrease was also as a result of the decreased capacity of the Laiyegou coal mine as a result of expansion efforts.
I agree gilead. Their finished goods inventory came in at $800K vs only $82K the previous quarter. Probably there is a large order(s) that is ready to ship. Had it shipped, the numbers would have looked much better. Sure would be nice to see a PR providing more info, although I know this company typically doesn't do them.
CDS- Reported strong results. Revs up 91%, net income was up 226% and eps were 26c vs 15c mainly due to strong magnesium sales. Company sees continued robust growth in sales and profits and will provide further guidance in a CC later today.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080807/clth045a.html?.v=1
OT- bbotc, No, I came across it last fall and shorted it at around 40 after I saw their portfolio was virtually all ARMs and many were no doc loans, with the lions share of them negative amortization. Many of their borrowers now owe more than their property is worth.
OT: Cramer- I think Cramer's only value is for entertainment and only then if one enjoys his act (no more than maybe a few minutes per week for me). I really believe he has picked more losers than winners.
One year ago, back in July '07, he went on CNBC saying that Downey (DSL) had the most compelling risk reward out there at $69/ share. He said he had researched it and the book value was solid at $51 and that the recent rate drops would mean lots of profits ahead for this California based ARM mortage lender as the RE market there was bottoming. Cramer said it was going to $100/ share.
Today, Downey has dropped all the way from $69 to $2 /share and I would not be at all surprised to see the Fed have to take them over them in the next few months. Downey was also my first short sale ever, and quite a profitable one at that.
CHE-UN.to - Nice move today in response to strong income report. I expect this will continue to move higher going forward. The company had 72c in distributable cash flow after maintenance expenses in the just announced quarter. That is well above the 30c paid in distributions to stockholders. Question- What is the minimum percentage of CF is required to be out to unitholders? Last quarter it was only 42% paid out and they say they expect margins to continue to expand going forward. Most canadian trusts are paying out 70% or more. I'm thinking that this is on an annual basis so either a special distribution will need to be paid by year end or they will need to raise the monthly payout in the not too distant future.
Bank of America investment services.
Run, I haven't been able to access BofA investment services on my desktop computer for probably the last week. However, I have not had a problem accessing the site when I use my notebook. Both use IE but the desktop has Windows XP while the notebook has Windows Vista. Maybe that has something to do with it?
Any others also having problems?
CNEH Great production numbers. Looking forward to seeing where the s/p goes from here. But I do wonder why Q2 has traditionally been a slow quarter for this oil driller?
CNEH - IMO, Still a positive- The finance officers were granted stock shortly before the news on production comes out in the next week as well as earnings next month. Indicates that good news is coming.
China's economy grew 21.4% in first half of '08 vs year ago period. CPI rose 7.9% in same period. Difference of 13.5% is real growth which is also higher than a year ago. China stocks should provide some good reading when earnings for many come out next month. CHCG has had a very nice bounce-up about 50%- after releasing preliminary Q #s just a week ago.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-07/17/content_8560760.htm
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-07/17/content_8560008.htm
CHE.un (cgiff.pk) Chemtrade has had a large sell-off in the last couple of weeks. I don't see any fundamental reason for it, from what I can see sulphuric acid prices remain very high and are expected to remain that way. There is a fund with a large position (AIM trimark) who has been selling shares, probably to cover redemptions since their ytd record is so lousy and that could well be the reason for the recent weakness.
On the plus side, Q2 earnings will be out by the end of the month and they should be very good reading with continued strong acid pricing. Here is a link to an article about sulphuric acid pricing and recommending CHE as the lone play on it. Also pays a near 11% dividend at current SP. I picked up some shares today.
http://www.moneyweek.com/file/47161/why-the-world-is-crying-out-for-sulphuric-acid.html
CHE.un - cgiff Chemtrade has had a large sell-off in the last couple of weeks. I don't see any fundamental reason for it, from what I can see sulphuric acid prices remain very high and are expected to remain that way. There is a fund with a large position (AIM trimark) who has been selling shares, probably to cover redemptions since their ytd record is so lousy and that could well be the reason for the recent weakness.
On the plus side, Q2 earnings will be out by the end of the month and they should be very good reading with continued strong acid pricing. Here is a link to an article about sulphuric acid pricing and recommending CHE as the lone play on it. Also pays a near 11% dividend at current SP. I bought some shares today.
http://www.moneyweek.com/file/47161/why-the-world-is-crying-out-for-sulphuric-acid.html
booshing?? Haven't heard that one before..
CHGY Northern, I had looked at this one earlier today but
passed because of a weak balance sheet. Current assets are $10 mil vs $36 mil in current liabilities leaving them with a working capital deficit of $27 mil. Expansion of operations is using cash and there is about $9 mil in bank loans coming due this year and then there are shareholder loans. Not sure if those will continue to be available. Maybe they will have enough positive cash flow from operations to cover most of this but it looks tight and I figured some dilution could well be coming. Assuming those numbers are correct, a PE of 2 does look very attractive, assuming it is not diluted.
CHCG- Now up 40% to $1.70 on 14c vs 10c prelim eps for Q2. Nice to see such a positive reaction in today's market. CHCG had guided for only a slight increase in eps, one analyst expected 11c. Company had also guided for a mid single digit increase in revs but handily blew that away with a 26+% increase. Maybe the positive news here will raise more Chinese boats.
World Oil export table- Interesting link which shows that exporting oil countries have had a decline in exports since 2006 and they will continue to decline. Huge transfer of wealth to these countries leads them to use more of their own oil production which leaves less for export. $300 oil within a couple of years??
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/4179#more
One would think oil had plunged below $100/bbl the way O/G stock prices are cratering today. I just picked up some ABP.
LTUS - Down 5% on only 6800 shares traded. No one is buying but there is no selling pressure either. Market is saying "show me". Q2 earnings should be better. Just occurred to me that next quarter's earnings for LTUS and many other China micros will likely be announced during the China Summer Olympics. That should focus attention on these assuming they report good #s