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Thanks for you quick reply. It is truly amazing that we are verge of a revenue breakout, on just turning on the oil and gas production from these new wells. We are talking about a near magnitude in business growth at our fingertips, yet we sit here having to put up with these prices, the MM antics, and the bashers.
When this become public, this will start to illuminate the productive value of the Barnett properties and the fact the we have just scratched the surface on what we own the rights too.
With company owned rigs, experienced people drilling, plenty of proven land to drill, profitability, and positive cash flow, the future is exceptionally bright. What is wrong with this story, except the SEC muzzle and the BDC resolution?
I would like to try and get clarification on AMEP's potential based on its current revenues and immediate production possibilities. I will be referencing a post by Greenhawk #11918 and Contractor #11897.
First let me say that the recent posting of AMEP's July or August numbers for the two field locations showed production oil and gas revenues in the $118k range for the month reported.
When I look back at the 10Q, posted August 14th, it showed revenue of around $800k for the first 6 months, which equates to approximately $132k per month.
Bottom line is that both monthly numbers are close for purposes of this discussion.
Now here is the question. When I look at Contractor's post, which was commented on by Greenhawk's post, they talk about annual revenue potentials, of the next 5 wells, being in the $9.7 million dollar range annually, or over $800k per year. I know part of this evaluation was based on the Murphy #1 history, the Murphy # 1 re-stimulated, the success of the Nash-Murphy #1 and the new horizontal well.
Is this truly possible? Are we talking about going from the $100k per month range to the $800+ per month range when we are successful in bring on line the next set of wells?
Did I miss something or is this the case give or take a few $100K?
Thanks
What does this potentially tell you? Is this a new lease to be drilled or our we assuming an existing well that might be reworked? Is this a new potential customer or would this be a lease under our existing acreage? Excuse me for my ignorance.
That leads me to a question. Once the well is put into production, let say four weeks ago, is that not the point it is generating revenue, whatever that is?
I know we are waiting to PR performance, which is based on stability, but is it not commercial when they go into production?
Very well said. Couple this with the multiple rigs owned and the 7000 acres of 100% NWI leases owned in the Barrnet Shale. Just think what the value will be when they add the oil & gas reserve estimates for the Barnett Shale properties on top of PRI's estimates.
Additionally, with production of the 5 well properties, we should be over the top in profitability and positive cash flow.
If it were not for you and Hawk, articulating this type of information, this would be a mystery. I thank you.
The one thing we can count on from CB and crew is hard work, honesty, and I believe ultimately, results.
Hawk, may you have a speedy and healthy recovery. May God bless you for all that you do.
Someone is selling at these prices, which is not good. We may call them weak hands, but they may have been solid, loyal investors who lost time, hope, confidence or patience.
CB if you read these boards, it is time. How far down can you take this without doing damage? You are feeding candy to the MM and bashers with your consistent silence.
There is not a question in my mind that our day will come, the question is when? Do we really think it will be any day (soon) or could they be holding out, for other business reason, and just waiting until November 15th, when they must report?
Just communicating effectively, what they already own, what they have the rights too, what they have recently done, or what they are in the process of completing, would put this stock in the teens.
I told someone the other day that the announcement on September 12th was the turning point. I say this because it shows that AMEP can deliver products from the valuable property it owns 100% NWI interest on, with its own rigs and its own crews. Couple this with near term profitability and positive cash flow, sets AMEP up to deliver numbers, over time, similar to Greenhawk report DD#4, which are staggering, but believable.
I have dry powder, but the question still stands. Is this a normal time span? Given the history of announced events/results this year, I would have thought that AMEP have would followed up the PR on the 12th with numbers as soon as available.
From what I read on this and other AMEP boards, I am not the only person in this camp.
Given that production was to start around September 18th/19th, based on the AMEP's PR dated September 12th, where are the production numbers? Given that we are entering the 4th week of production, is this normal for a well to take this long to stabilize and report numbers?
The first drilling news that we were waiting for, I believe it was Hart #8, started with silence and then ended with word of a bad pump. Each day of no word creates speculation of what's up or what's wrong now?
We are waiting to hear production numbers on the well announced 3 weeks ago, but should we not be in a position hear news on the other activities. With 5 wells in various stages of work the past few months, what is going on with the other 4 wells/activites? Is everything serialized? I thought I saw last week where someone posted the government report of well activity and the AMEP had two wells in "Production Stabilization."
Thanks Hawk for your insight. With production come increased revenues and cash flow.
I for one am going to agree with the comments of a timely PR. The stock price is in the toilet. We traded approximately 1.2 million shares, the last two days, for a total value of around $61,000. This is the lowest volume, I believe, since I bought over a year ago. All buying has dried up. On the other hand UPDA, who is 1/10 the company, puts out a little PR and they end up trading over 110 million shares valued at $11 million. $60k versus $11 million.
When I saw AMEP release the announcement last week, I said we have turned the corner. With all that they have going, I was expecting to see something that would start to establish a trend of deliverables that the market would get excited for. Five active well projects are just what we know of. Obviously, the announcement last week, in and of itself, did nothing other than to set expectation for numbers, at least, the stock price is reflecting that.
The long 4 month dry spell in PR's, coupled with the 9 month dry spell in announced drilling production successes, has not left my memory. I am very optimistic, but AMEP has some work to do in professionally communicating to its shareholders and the market place.
OT: I saw this piece on CNN last night around 10:00 PM. They were interviewing the reporter sited in the article.
I saw on AMEP's RB board, where someone posted that UPDA moves up strongly on 66 million shares traded today with an announcement. This puts the valuation of UPDA around AMEP, at today's closing price, which is ridiculous. AMEP is head and shoulders over this company, if only it will show itself.
This UPDA move could be a pump & dump scheme, you never know. They are great at manufacturing shares. I use to own a little of UPDA and I lost a few bucks. There is no comparison between these two opportunities.
I would hope AMEP follows up with a release soon showing some numbers. This assumption is based on the recent announcement of "production early next week." If UPDA can trade 66 million shares up to the $.106 range, what could we do with a powerful announcement, followed up closely by news on any of the other 4 wells?
I know each well is different, but on the average, how long does it take to stabilize a well and get average flow rates? Hours, days, week(s)?
In a day or so, AMEP will poo poo on your head.
With 5 wells in various stages of completion, that we know of, including production numbers of the first well announced last week, you had better be careful for your days are numbered.
I could see a steady steam of 5 - 10 announcements, in the coming months, that would put AMEP is a new range. You will be buried in poo poo my friend.
CTB, you hit the bull eye with your assessment. When he validates his current projects, all the pain that has been inflicted this past year will go away. He will have proven success with the rigs, his crew, and his property.
With this scenario, coupled with positive cash flow supporting future operations and no further dilution, supported by recent web site comments, hold on for the ride. We are potential moments away from all the cock roaches scattering from this board.
All the downward price pressure we are seeing in AMEP, that is not related to the general oil & NG decline, will be reversed to the upside when AMEP announces the results of the current activities. This will validate their ability to deliver on the assets they have which will cause people to look forward.
The one thing that I picked up on, when I visited the company late last year, is they would protect their downside. This can be seen, most definitely, in having no debt. They have been through the bust of the prior oil swings and know that banks take no prisoners.
One thing for sure is that there is some seasoning here, some experience. I may not like some of the things they do, but they have been around the block.
You have hit the nail on the head. I wish that CB would commence the release of the news worthy events they have pending, that would substantiate the current value of the company.
The true value of this company is being hidden in the lack of information and, more importantly, in the credibility of management to deliver on the value they have. Having started the new drilling program in December, with no production to date, hurts. No matter how you slice it, 9 months in 9 months.
With the 3 immediate wells pending, and with the 2 or 3 additional wells or news worth items being worked, this company will be launched. Regardless of the price of NG and oil, and the swings that will happen, this company has substantial value on the books that is not being reflected in the current price, by a factor of 2-4x.
The next few PR(s) will move AMEP to an another level in the eyes of the investment community. It will substantiate the long term value the CB has acquired and validate his ability to manage and deliver on these assets profitably.
I sure hope we don't bunch them up, but let them flow frequently and unexpectedly, so that the bashers and MM die a horrid death.
Hawk, the cock roaches are starting to stir on all the various boards with the AMEP update. I think they sense a big foot is lurking skyward.
I am thinking that all the bashers might want to pucker up because I smell rocket fuel. I am not saying it is taking off, but rather, that better days are becoming visible.
Hawk, I would also like to thank you for your diligent efforts in supporting the various boards with your knowledge.
Additionally, I would like to say that in reading the update, it does say that the company was in receipt of an inquiry from the SEC in May. I know someone stated this a while back, but this reinforces a notion that some/all communications got suspended pending activity/resolution is this area. This could account for the dry spell, which may now be ending.
Thanks again.
I really liked the following points. First, that CB is buying share, and secondly, that AMEP is stating that it hopes to limit the issuance of additional shares moving forward. Those are two very positive statements.
Maybe this is establishing a little house keeping and now we can follow with a sequence of operational updates.
Preparing to take off.
When I do the <ctl>+R, I get my e-mail. I should say that, I am getting the AMEP web site, but what I am seeing is the famous "patients" new web site under construction note.
Is there something new?
Sorry for the trouble. Thanks.
When I log on, I get the same new website statement that has been recently displayed.
Are you saying/implying it's up? I am still getting the under construction statement. What am I missing?
Thanks
On the PRI property alone, do we have a current estimate of the recoverable oil that the company is projecting? The article stated 62 million barrels at that time.
I live in North Texas and water is a concern, especially in the unincorporated counties. I saw on the news, just last week, a TV news segment on the water problems, specifically in a county outside of Fort Worth. The subject was about the drilling boom and it use of water and the effects on the community.
We did have a little rain this week and are expecting more early next week. Hopefully, this hurricane will give us some relief.
Not to get off my point, but on Fox New last night the Meteorologist said, that where this storm is originating from, off the coast of Venezuela, has historically produced severe hurricanes and he is very concerned.
Back to my point regarding water and AMEP, are the 200 or so PRI wells in South Texas, where water is not as much of a problem?
Thanks
No, you are wrong. If you would have read through my comments, I said, "in and of it self it means nothing."
The fact that we use the same measuring stick, across the sample field, and it show that AMEP has the most institutional percentage of small company that I follow, it is nothing more than informative. Put a check in the plus side for AMEP. Period.
I looked at a lot of penny stock and they are 0%. Two of the better one ASPN and NTAH, have 2-3%. Two block buster companies that I got in early and are now moving into the big time, RTK (coal to oil) and CWPC/BQIss (Oilsands), in the early stages, they had 0%. Now they are flooded with institutions.
Don't take my comments any further than, "that's nice." Your're all hung up in the block size, etc... Hell all penny companies are 10,000 blocks. Why don't they show in the percentages of the other companies that have 0%
You my friend are slicing the salami to thin.
One item of consideration that I like to see is the interest of institutional investors. Companies at this stage, the interest is usually 0% to none.
What has amazed me about AMEP, is that they have maintained an institutional investment average of 5-6%, as reflected on RB I-Watch.
I checked a few other companies that I follow and most were zero, except for a couple of quality companies that were in the 2-3% range.
Doesn't mean much in and of itself, but it is nice to know that this little company has investors in this classification. Someone knows something, likes the story, or knows the history of CB & JC.
I know what you mean. If you don't live on the iggy button, the board is unusable.
Thanks
Is RB down? I have not been able to access it for a couple of hours.
Thanks.
Regarding your comments on Norway's chart. Can you articulate the short term price of the chart for a novice like myself.
Thanks in advance.
I do not understand why the company has not released a PR summarizing the quarterly result at a minimum, at least highlighting production numbers. Are they expecting all shareholders to only read the quarterly filing to get their information.
I am a solid long, but I don't understand what is holding them back from issuing a PR to communicate something to the shareholders. Do we for sure know that the BDC interaction with the SEC has anything to do with this? There has got to be a reason for this silence and getting information, beyond calling or visiting CB. I have been there and done that, just not recently.