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I am not aware of any of these BF's (that does not mean anything really) and am not 100% sure they exist as true Brokeredge Firms
ERHC on FRANKFURT EXCHANGE DOWN 13% THIS MORNING
This seems to be not much different than most CC's except there seems to be no brokeredge firms present.
I would think that ERHC would want to do more to assuage investors fears and would not want to come off like they are hiding info.
Looks like no big announcement and this CC was just done to satisfy the Feds
where did you get that
It seems like ERHC is using the moderator to get around questions they do not want to answer.
Vague reply that "as far as ERHC knows we still have the priority pick"
Farrell90,
what board is IV?
accepted.
A lot of nervous energy to go around for the next 20 hours
Doug C,
I appreciate your positive remarks.
My blog was in response to Joe Shea's message on his Blog. His prognostication is that we will lose a few cents by EOD ( I suspect he is hoping to buy more at a lower sp).
I certainly not think given the news ledge we are on that ERHC's share price could end up lower than this morning's opening.
But DC as always we appreciate your keen wit :)
At the end of today we will see another strong surge (similar to last Friday's surge) people waiting on the sideline are going to get in prior to the CC tomorrow morning. If we hear something significant in the CC tomorrow expect the price to continue to rise, if the news is not sigificant I expect the price to wallow a bit and then head back down (only slightly I hope)
IMHO - Bayfisher
I agree with Fishdog, if Addax purchased erhe and their JDZ holdings through a stock swap that would be the best of both worlds for all of us. It would be an immediate 20X gain plus we would still have tremendous upside with our new investment in Addax.
Finally this would still set well with parties interested in the US retaining rights or control in the GOG because Addax would have to partner up with a major that was experienced in dealing with very deep water drilling and production
thanks for the answer, I am sure all of us appreciate your integrity.
Exceo,
If you were CEO of Addax how would you handle this deal?
Would you require Offor to resign before the nnouncement?
Would you be willing to to purchase this erhe for a little more than $4 billion in stock dilution?
Would you allow Offor to be on your board?
How about this:
Addax Petroleum closed at $29.44/sp.
If ERHC did a 5 for 1 with Addax then the price per share for our erhe.ob would be $5.88, or just under $6.00. Could this be the coming announcement and the reason Offor resigned prior to the CC?
Tryly,
Will you help me understand your analysis:
Dollars less than five factorial divided by 20?
(5*4*3*2*1)/20 = 120/20 = 6.
How do you interpret th eless than five factorial
A big thank you to the man whose coat tails we have all ridden over the last few years. Thanks to SEO's leadership, vision, and shere chutzpah we may all see this company achieve a significant financial return.
I know the wait has been much longer than many of us would have liked, but we are still in the game and still confident that ERHC will reach it's goals.
Sir Emeka Offor - THANK YOu
Tryoty,
In a marginal respect it does not matter when development costs are paid off. A stock's share price is refelective of current income as well as potential income. The day oil starts to flow our share price will reflect that future income regardless of whose pocket the 'first oil' flows to.
IMHO (very long ERHC)
Jeez...this is making me ill. This is a stock chat room, not Dear Abby. No offense EXCEO, you have always been exceedingly polite and a solid if not uninformed poster. If you want your wife back then regain her respect. It is simple as that. If the problem is that you have been overly smothering in the past then roses and ILY's will not help. Only some space and the ability to show her you can stand on your own two feet. I am sorry I cannot be supportive in the way that the other posters are but I think it is hogwash.
ALL of this is only IMHO
Bayfisher
The fact that we stand pat at $.32 says a lot about this stock.
If the market is cratering and erhe is locked down on it's opening price it (IMHO) says that the day to day price gyrations that we experience are simply day traders trading our volatility. There is a good bet that one or more of the regulars that contibute to this board fall into this group. I have some candidates but will keep that to myself.
When there is no market to trade into (at least in ST trading) then day-traders will sit back. And those of us that are in this stock for what we see is the long-term possibilities, will and can do nothing but wait.
What does all this say, (again IMHO) all of these day to day price gyrations mean nothing, they are simply a vehicle for those of us that can to acquire additional volume.
Sit back wait it out, probably through fall of 2008 at least.
Again all of this is IMHO. do your own research
Tryoty,
Depends completely upon the formation they are going through.
But when you are in 5,000 foot of water, everytime you have to trip out to change the bit you add additional time. So drilling in deep water can add considerable time to well completion.
As much as I don't want to say it, it looks almost certain that Oily is either here to publish unproven superlatives surrounding erhc allowing the mm's to make money on speculation surrounding his prognostations or he simply enjoys the fame and notoriety that comes along with his predictions.
Either way, if we do not see a rig annoncement (in the JDZ) then I suggest we all put him on ignore get on with information that is more important.
Like many here I have invested (in my mind) a sizable amount and feel that it has at least a 50/50 chance of coming to fruition. It is time to put up or shut up. By Friday Oily goes on ignore or I will acknowledge him his due.
WAC = $.62/share
$2 to $3 will sell 25%, hold the rest
$6 to $7 will sell 50%, hold the rest
Above $11 will sell 75%, hold the rest
Jdubs,
I cannot figure your math on this one. Would you explain.
37% of a $62.53 share price is $23.14/share
What strikes me about this press release is in the Jack 2 Chevron drilled one well and were able to ascertain that the Jack 2 was in a promising field with 360 foot of pay and the potential to yield from 5 billion to 15 billion barrels.
In the OBO 1 Chevron struck many pay zones and cannot tell us if the field is even economically viable.................uuummm.
Chevron covered by indicating that they used an unprecedented flow test at Jack 2 and through this flow test they determined the extent of the field as well as its size.
But in Production Engineering 101, by holding a 72 hour BHP shut in Engineers can calculate Z-factor, permeability, and indications of size..
IMHO
What strikes me about this press release is in the Jack 2 Chevron drilled one well and were able to ascertain that the Jack 2 was in a promising field with 360 foot of pay and the potential to yield from 5 billion to 15 billion barrels.
In the OBO 1 Chevron struck many pay zones and cannot tell us if the field is even economically viable.................uuummm.
Chevron covered by indicating that they used an unprecedented flow test at Jack 2 and through this flow test they determined the extent of the field as well as its size.
But in Production Engineering 101, by halding a 72 hour BHP shut in Enginners can calculate Z-factor, permeability, and indications of size..
IMHO
Brez.
Thanks I look forward to seeing it.
Have a good safe trip.
Bayfisherii
TRYOTY<
I want it!
Jim,
I like your numbers as well. But I have worked on Production Sharing Agreements (PSA's) in Kazakhstan and generally under these agreements the host country retains a significant portion of the reserve. Is the 16% we all keep referring to after or before Nigeria and PST retain their percentages.
I will go away and we can all spout how rich we are going to be, if someone will answer (accurately) is the 16% before or after the PSA?
It matters. It could be a 2.5X multiplier on where this SP will end up. If I am wrong that would be great, but posters like UMBRA and MarkG just keep saying "wrong" without any substantive reason why the 16% is post PSA.
Can you detail this for me?
If I am miss-informed then so be it. But to my understanding ERHC's (on average) 16% share of Zones 2, 3 & 4. Are after the PSA agreement. Usually a country will retain upwards of 60% of the oil in their own fields.
Am I wrong? Is that not the case here?
Umbra, instead of mono-syllabic replies show me where I am wrong.
I am a large holder of ERHE.OB and want this stock to take off as much as anybody. But this is my understanding so show me its flaws...please.
After the PSA ERHC's recoverable oil percenatge is closer to 6%
1.7875 billion barrels would only be ERHC's share. With Partners and concessions to the the PSA you would need close to 30 Billion proven to move this price to $12/share (on reserves only)
Stay The Course: I enjoy reading your messages as they are well thought out and I do not get the sense they are being thrown at us as I do with a few of the other posters on this board.
But, I question if using a multiple times cash flow would be the proper way to put a market cap on an exploration company in relation to reserve potential. And if an analyst were to use a multiple wouldn't a multiple of between 15 and 20 be more appropriate as both capital requirements and risk are somewhat mitigated. To value a company like ERHC for acquisition one could combine both cash flow and a reserve valuation coupled with risk and future obligations. The reserve valuation has to be priced against the PSA agreements which in this case should have many requirements requiring the partnership to both train and use a substantive number of locals again sustantivly inflating costs.
your thoughts
Everyone,
In looking at the economics provided by this group.
I have calculated that every billion barrels of oil at an average price of $60/Bbl is worth to ERHC a 'LIFTED' market value of $2.7 Billion dollars.
Do these numbers hold up?
If this analyis (big if) is correct, then if Block 2 holds 4 billion recoverable barrels then that would equate to a cash flow of 10.8 billion dollars to ERHC over the life of the field. (of course using $60 dollars a barrel as the lifted market price at well head).
Does anyone here think that the odds are significant that Block 2 holds at least 2 billion barrels of oil and or oil equivalents?
I do.
In as much as the economics are slightly different in the other 3 zones but an overall economic corallary holds true. ERHC could start to produce tremendous cash flow within the next 2 to 3 years and that cash flow could last for 20 to 30 years.
So how do you price that cash flow in the stock price.
I think when you look back at all the press releases on the JDZ and the corporate and government posturing you have to believe there is some amount of recoverable oil in this area, just how much is the significant question. But from what I can piece together even an amount of only 1 billion barrels (far below expectations) will significantly increase ERHC's cash flow.
I am not trying to bolster this stock I only want to generate a dialogue that looks economically at what the potential (per Billion Barrels discovered) is for ERHC.
Please comment on the above dialogue.
IMHO
BayfisherII
Just to provide an Update.
007 is now spreading his malice on the other board. I suspect that he will wear out his welcome there, as well.
InstructMBA to generate an impetus to get our talk travck going again, would you provide a quick synopsis of all that has happened over the last 2 months?
Issues: Drill ETA, white knight rumors, additional zones and bids,
I am sure there are many more topics.
BayFisher
Thanks InstructMBA,
I hope your board returns to where we were before his/her arrival.
Bayfisher
INSTRUCT,
With all respect, 007 has ruined this board and has directed me to look for other sources for JDZ information. Since 007 started 3 weeks ago he has dominated any and all information that comes across (great example he has 12 of the last 20 posts).
It has become 007's SLAM central. I understand we should have unrestrained ideas thoughts and speech, but what 007 is doing is equivalent to standing up in a theatre and yelling fire. It is apparent that 007 has one goal in mind and his intent is to do all he can to lower the price and expectations of this stock. He keeps touting the current share price as certification of the correctness of his dire prognostications. But when a stock’s daily trade volume is not even one-tenth of one percent of the outstanding shares it only takes a little bad news to make a few Lemmings jump. And I am sure either 007 or the MM's that pay him are trading those daily swings. I SUGGEST THAT ALL OF US THAT ARE ON THIS BOARD LEAVE AND ALLOW 007 TO RANT IN PEACE.
A lot of posters have repeatedly asked you(INSTRUCTMBA) to do what you could to restrict his presence. Either you cannot or you choose not. Either way, I suspect that most of us will look somewhere else for news on JDZ and ERHC, and allow 007 to scream his diatribe to his minions out of our presence.
Over and out,
BayfisherII
Oilman007 storms IHUB 'JDZ Nigeria-Sao Tome e Principe'.
OM7 takes over whole community.
Residents fleeing the maelstrom of slamming waves.
Current speculation is the neighborhood has been despoiled.
Only looters and slammers left.
The latest report on OM7 is that he is short, very very short!
MBA,
Shut this poster out. He/She is without a doubt a paid basher.
Nothing he/she says brings anything new to the table. His/Her only focus is spreading fear and panic.
As Moderator respond please
MBA,
with all respect, 'operibus credite, et non verbis'.
Bayfisher
OM-007,
First, giving yourself the 007 moniker obviously means you have a vague distorted view of reality and your place in it.
Secondly, you have argued with most of the people on this board whom IMO have given solid evidence behind their allusions while you give none.
Thirdly, you have repeatedly contradicted yourself, not just as I have pointed out but also as MBA and others have pointed out.
Fourthly, you give vague references to things you never support (eg. I am from further South than you, but I can't tell anyone where that is. Afterall, I am 007 and someone might be after me.
Finally, you are simply a jack _ _ _ !
Can you understand that English!