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Tuesday, August 15, 2006 10:39:24 AM
In looking at the economics provided by this group.
I have calculated that every billion barrels of oil at an average price of $60/Bbl is worth to ERHC a 'LIFTED' market value of $2.7 Billion dollars.
Do these numbers hold up?
If this analyis (big if) is correct, then if Block 2 holds 4 billion recoverable barrels then that would equate to a cash flow of 10.8 billion dollars to ERHC over the life of the field. (of course using $60 dollars a barrel as the lifted market price at well head).
Does anyone here think that the odds are significant that Block 2 holds at least 2 billion barrels of oil and or oil equivalents?
I do.
In as much as the economics are slightly different in the other 3 zones but an overall economic corallary holds true. ERHC could start to produce tremendous cash flow within the next 2 to 3 years and that cash flow could last for 20 to 30 years.
So how do you price that cash flow in the stock price.
I think when you look back at all the press releases on the JDZ and the corporate and government posturing you have to believe there is some amount of recoverable oil in this area, just how much is the significant question. But from what I can piece together even an amount of only 1 billion barrels (far below expectations) will significantly increase ERHC's cash flow.
I am not trying to bolster this stock I only want to generate a dialogue that looks economically at what the potential (per Billion Barrels discovered) is for ERHC.
Please comment on the above dialogue.
IMHO
BayfisherII
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