No doubt that breadth sucks and getting worse. SPY is stronger than QQQ which is interesting as I already have a sell signal for SPY. May get one today for QQQ. Signals I am talking about are from price chart, price is king.

QQQ is dropping out of its up channel. Could be wave 4. Could be more serious.

Thanks, but I am pretty set with what I want to trade. I am sticking to major indexes and large companies.

I don't know why they don't strike. They could take over Taiwan before we would even know what happened. It would take days for Joe's handlers to figure out what to do, by then it would be over.

For sure looking soft. Bullish %'s are really dropping.

Here is the same chart for FNGU and its 10 components. 6 out of 10 are above 20ma.

Two are below 50ma, AMZN and SNOW.

Holding the right stocks from FNGU I think can be a very good strategy. I am planning on dedicating some % of my holdings to a few of my favorite stocks like NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, META and maybe others.

I took a small position in NVDA looking for a breakout first by option (5/17) and then converted to stock (5/20). Boy did I get the breakout. Based on the value of the stock only, I am up 29%. That is out standing in my book. It would be very hard to get those kinds of gains with S&P sectors. The super large tech companies are totally running this market.

SPY had no gain last week, while QQQ was up 1.4%. This is not good for the over all market. Clearly tech is holding SPY to a zero loss.

Looking all the sectors, the only sectors along with SPY to be above 20ma is XLC, XLK, and XLU. XLC and XLU are a small part of the S&P so leaves tech supporting the whole market.

Only one sector is <20ma but >50ma, XLP (Staples) and it is headed down fast.

That leaves 7 sectors <50ma.The consumer, health care, energy, industrials are gone.

For sure DRV did well today.

No question that this run is starting to age. It is clear that we are w3, so I suspect we have some more to go. I am up 6.7% since 4/19, so I am super happy. Always ready for more gain and always ready to call it over and go to cash to wait for the next cycle.

Hope you get power restored quickly. Thank goodness it wasn't OK for a change. My daughter is going nuts with all the storms.

Wow what an opening we are going to have. NVDA is up 7%, pushing QQQ up 1.2%.

Sounds a little too easy to me. I actually don't think we will see any rate cuts this year. If inflation stays above 3%, I think they will just let the economy limp along at the current interest rate level.

Good for you.

In OKC for granddaughter HS graduation. Great weekend seeing the family.

What an outstanding 9 months. After a 28% run from Nov, we got a -5.3% pull back last month that felt terrible. But then the market turned again and we are up another 7% and set some new ATH's. May by the week has been 1.9%, 1.9% and 1.7% totaling 5.5%. I have been fully invested at 135%, so I am killing the 5.5%.

I am currently running a 70%/30% mix of SPXL and TQQQ. Last year I was heavy to TQQQ.

Who would have ever guessed this was going to happen. No way to know what is going to happen, one just has to follow the signals from the charts.

I had a good friend years ago who said he only voted for Democrats for a very simple reason, his pocketbook. It appears he has a point. Stock market gains for each president.

Yes I checked mtd for FLOT on the 13th and it was 6.78%. Still very strong.

I need to go back to straight MACD. I thought using the % that PPO does would be better for chart to chart comparison, but I really never look at the actual values, only the sharp of the curve.

The standard daily charts that I use I don't think have a chance of working on BOIL. That guy is an animal.

This kind of investing should be illegal, it's way too easy.

But it takes conviction. I have never hit the "buy button' that there wasn't some discomfort in my gut.

One never knows which trade is going to be the good one. But with a plan, the odds are in my favor big time.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yields-tumble-set-bigger-plunge-if-cpi-comes-cool

I have all of the raw history for FLOT for 2024. I am going to add the dividends so I can calculate the dividend adjusted closing prices. With the adjusted numbers I can calculate a rolling 30-day APR%. That should burn up some CPU brains. I can't wait to see what the graph looks like.

With 60% of my cash in FLOT, I want to get out long before I can see a change looking at just monthly numbers.

I am starting to believe that actually China is in much more financial trouble that even we are. Our national debt to GDP is about 125%, but China's is over 300%. They have done some really interestingly dumb things, like build millions of condos/towns that have no inhabitants. Makes GDP look really good, but it destroyed their housing market.

Real Estate used to the be thought of as the best investment in China by everyone. They even went so far as to close of houses under construction and start making payments. When millions of projects were stopped for funding, it has all come crashing down. It has destroyed family finances and soured them on the housing market.

There are now pictures coming out of acres of unsold EV's starting to show up. Again great for GDP.

There is just no end to the stupid things that companies will do at the direction on their government. Ford and GM are losing billions a year on EV's, but they just keep on investing. At the rate Ford is losing money ($120K per EV sold), we will be bailing them out soon because they are just too big to fail and they know that. Just like all the banks know also and keep doing stupid stuff.

I will have to play around sometime and see what I see.

Yes what a nice chart to look at as I just got up. I am only 150% investment in SmA, but running a strong 132% & 126% in my two large account.

I wanted to add more in the SmA account, but stuck to our "Major New Event" ruling out any changes to positions.

I agree with your concern, will it hold. At lease it was a big gap down which is what I was really worried about.

I think this is the answer, the whisper numbers got out for CPI tomorrow.

Market really struggled all day long to stay above yday's close, but something happened at 2 pm as the market just took off. I added some FNGU yday which was a good move at least for today.

Big question is what happens tomorrow if we get a high CPI print. I'm okay with what ever happens, but of course I would rather see the high of Mar 21 taken out to confirm a major wave 3 up.

Yes the big reports do kick off tomorrow. If they effect the market, I sense that it will be positive from what I have read.

Yes I moved it to 24hrs weeks ago and since then it doesn't log me out at all.

I have to give CS a big PLUS for how they are pulling off this transition. Looks like they planned and executed it perfect.

I just logged on to my TOS web and it will be running all week. Sweet.

I'm not sure exactly what you are talking about, but when I went over to TOS, there was no trade history. However the account numbers were right.

Are you able to log onto schwab.com? You should be able to see everything there.

I started watching Steven's video that you posted and realized after a few minutes into it that he was just reviewing the zerohedge article that came out Thru or Fri about the BNPL plans that were the reason consumer spending was not going down. So I then just started to click a few seconds ahead at a time and nothing new came out that I caught.

I then wanted to know more about Steven so I went to his web site. His thing is his "Portfolio Shield" fund that he is pushing. He says it has returned 10.19% yield per year for the last 5 years. Interesting the S&P returned 15.7% for 2019-2023. With the mix of bonds that he has, I am actually surprised he has done that well.

I read and watch TV/videos to understand what is going in the world, but I do my very best to not let it influence my trading. I have back tested and back tested my charts and if I am not willing to trust my work, then what was it all for. Just put it in SPY and let it ride, which is actually a pretty good plan.

Let's look at swing trading from another point of yield. Most swing traders say they are trying to catch 60% of a move. If you have a system will get you in 2% from the bottom and out 2% from the top, you are giving up 4% of the swing. If you want to catch 60% of the move than that says the move must be at least 10% to accomplish your goal.

I am not sure 2023 is a good year to look at, but it had 3 runs that from bottom to top (closes) were 10.7%, 19.7% and 16.2%. So if I can capture 60% of the moves I would expect a gain of 28%. My official gain for 2023 was 36% and SPY actually did 26%. That says that if I can get close to my official trades I could beat the market quite well. Then throw in the fact that I am trading at 125% investment and a mix of QQQ when it is doing well and the 36% should be a piece of cake even if my executions are not spot on.

The market is now up 5.2% from the bottom of 4/19 and I assume you are still not in the market. I don't think you can do well swing trading if you give up 5-8% of a swing just to enter. I am up 3.9% since 4/19, so I gave up 1.3% getting back into the market. It is actually more like 1.6% because I am 125% invested.

There is a big advantage of getting into the market fast after a pullback. I got in about 1.3% up from the bottom. If I use the bottom as a stop, that says all I will lose is 1.3%. I like those kind of odds, a 70-90% chance of a 6-10% gain vs a loss of 1.3%.

I really don't think of myself as aggressive, but maybe I am. I am just trying to play the odds and looks at the market mathematically. I am nowhere near a Warren Buffett yet, but I am closing in.

Those are just my thoughts. If I am over stepping the line tell me and I will back off.

Glad I moved over a few weeks ago. All is working fine. I still am using the TOS web version vs the TOS stand-alone app. I am very happy. I didn't realize how bad IB actually was. They do some really weird stuff and downright stupid stuff.

For some reason the TOS web version will keep me logged in all week. I only close it over the weekend when I restart my computer. CS site is only good for 8 hours.

I often log onto CS web site when I have made bigger trades. CS transaction history combines all the trades into just one trade, so easy to update my records. TOS displays all the trades. I have seen up to 6 trades that I would have to combine to see the total result. Too much work.

The only thing with all versions of CS is that until sometime after 8pm, the balance of the account is based on AH prices and not closing. This is not something new for me as I had the same issue with IB. So I just check the shares numbers and go with my dollar balances. Later in the evening or the next morning, all the numbers jive.

It no longer matters what the truth is, only what people want to believe and what they see in print. And right now they want to believe badly that things are okay and a reduced CPI next week will prove it, so be ready.

Personally, I am not sure what is going to happen although I think it is going to be bad. But I am just following my charts. I have been long since the first day of May. My accounts are up 5.0% mtd vs SPY 3.6%. As I have said many times, I am very aggressive on going long and very nonaggressive for going to cash. My 15min charts are telling me this could be a nice up day. I went all in for my aggressive acct last night. We had a 1% day Monday and .6% yday, So SPY up another 1.7% so far this week. Let's round it off to 2.5% for the week.

New headline

Why Next Week's CPI Number Will Be A Big Miss
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/one-bank-reveals-why-next-weeks-cpi-number-will-be-big-miss

If this happens, I would think this would be very positive for the market. Rate cuts would be back on the table.

That sound like a good routine. I probable watch the markets too much when I am just around. But several days I am gone. I have no issue trading EOD until 8pm.

I like what I see on my QQQ trend chart. After what looks like a good 3 wave count down, we are now in wave 3 of an up count. Wave 3 got off to a good start on Fri when it gapped at the open. M65 line has flatten from the previous drop and M12 has crossed zero which is a very strong signal normally. For sure this chart is telling me not to worry. Having said that, I am not complacent, but vigilant.

Maybe this headline will keep this pullback short and shallow.

Goldman: "Our Buyback Desk Is Very Active Again" With $5.5 Billion On Deck Every Day This Month"

Exited BOIL AH for a gain of 12.1%

I am only playing short term swings.