How to do you see TFLO vs FLOT?

In my chart I showed the APR% for each month. 4.96% Jan 5.77% Feb and 5.60% for Mar.

Let me show how a ytd APR would be calculated.

The close Fri was 100.71. The close for Dec 29 was when adjusted 99.408.

That is a gain of 1.013097537 if I don't subtract the 1 and get the actual yield of 1.3097537%.

I now want to calculate the daily interest rate. From Dec 29 to Fri is exactly 90 days, the formula would be

1.013097537 ^ (1/90) = 1.000144594 ( again the actual gain would need the 1 subtracted to get .000144594%
Note: most calculators have either a "shift" or "2nd" button to make it each to just take the 90th root of the ytd gain (with the 1 still included).

Now that I have the daily rate, all I have to do is raise it to the 365th power to get the annual rate.
1.000144594 ^ 365 = 1.054190254
So the YTD APR is 5.42%

These formulas would be written out as
daily interest = (1 + ytd gain) ^1/(number of days in period) - 1
APR % = (1 + daily interest) ^ 365 - 1

It took me a while to figure out how dividends are used to adjust past closes some years ago. Yahoo used to do a good job of it, but no more.

Stock Charts allows us to see the raw numbers (data reported each close of the day) and the number adjusted to take into account the dividends.

On Fri SGOV closed at 100.71. After the dividend is paid Monday that number will be adjusted to 100.26. The formula used for adjusting back data is the following.

Previous Close (Fri) - Dividend (Monday) divided by Previous close
100.71 - .449911 / 100.71 = .995533
So Fri will be adjusted 100.71 * .995533 = 100.26.

All previous data will get multiplied by the same factor. As you go back in time, the factor grows smaller as each new factor is multiplied by factor from previous dividend payments.

As the data stands right now the Dec 29 adjusted close according to SC is 99.408. I also have 99.408.

As on Monday my Dec 29th adjusted number will change to 98.964

Below are two charts from Stock Charts showing adjusted numbers and then unadjusted or raw numbers. They I show my worksheet.

Excellent, thanks. And 6 significant figures to boot.

This can be thought of in many ways. I found mine.

Here is the best thing I have found on TOS. Under Account Statement, I can see an actual ledger with each trade and its effect on balance of cash. I had this with Fidelity, and it proved to be very useful at time. Neither Schwab Web, SSE or IB did this.

Error when I tried to play

I will watch it. I am making trades but I am not impressed. Just a little entry bar at the bottom.

Using 3

Don't have a way yet to look at premarket numbers. I decided to transition to TOS last night. I ordered the transfer about 6pm and they said the transfer would happen overnight. I have now downloaded TOS and have it running. About to set up my watch list. I managed to set up SSE (Street Smart Edge) with no help, I figured how hard could it be. I did watch an 18 min video. I think it will be an easy transition. Will know here in a minute.

Thanks, I did figure out their numbers were screwed up, but didn't know what they were.

Current short term money yields, will be pretty close to month numbers.

I have seen nothing about the explosion of 2yr yields. This should have made the headlines. Could be a mistake.


iHub screwing up again.

insert-text-here

Last Wed I posted that NVDA was close to breaking out of an descending triangle. The breakout did occur and NVDA is continuing its growth even in face of short term weakness. SPY and QQQ almost gave 60m buy signals today, so maybe tomorrow and then I can see some real growth. NVDA is very close to breaking the ATH.

I choose to buy intraday rather than wait for the close, which was costly. I am up 3.5% but would have been up 4.8% if I had waited for EOD.

So you are calling for a Black Swan event. I content, there never has been one. Even in 1987 when the market dropped 20% in one day, the previous two days, it was clear something was coming. As far as the normal 50% pull back, again there is ample opportunity to exit before any real damage is done. One just has to be willing to be an active investor rather than a B&Her.

So your chart doesn't pose any kind of threat to me at all. Both SPY and QQQ had 2 pullbacks >10% in 2023 when for the year in total they were up 26% SPY and 55% QQQ. Pullbacks are just part of the game and I welcome them.

But even as good as this curve looks, someday it will break somehow, but I will not trade in fear or not trade out of fear.

Thanks, will do. You too.

After hours continues the day's trend. SPY up .27%, QQQ.52%. Wow.

I was using 4 different charts to guide my buying/selling decisions, but I have dropped all but the price and 60min charts. Bullish percent looks terrible, but price just keeps moving up. Bullish percent charts are not giving good signals at the present. BP has dropped to almost 50% with no effect on price. The "bigs" are driving the market. Lucky for me I recognized these false signals and ignored them.

SPY has been the big winner this month, but QQQ and FNGU are coming alive. SPY 2.8%, QQQ 1.2%, FNGU (1x) 1.2%.

Like I said, I haven't read a thing, plenty of time to catch up after EOD.

Here is a very powerful example of a growth spurt followed by a consolidation followed by a huge breakout thanks to the FEDs I guess (haven't read anything yet). Had it gone the other way, hope to think I would have been able to exit at BE or better. What a good day this is turning out to be.

Here is another FNGU stock that shows some promise. I bought in somewhat early, so somewhat of a risk.

Dividends

 
  
 ......Dividend  Ex date  Pay out date 
 SPY   1.59494   3/15   4/30 
 QQQ    .57345   3/18   4/30

NVDA had a nice run up 87% from EOY to Mar07. Since that time, prices have consolidated and a bullish descending triangle has formed. I will be watching for a breakout. NVDA profit forecasts are stellar.

As you know I have had a miner running since 12/2021. I have mined a total of .2052 bitcoin, but the bankruptcy of Voyager cost me .0691, so my ye inventory is .1362 coins. The inventory value is $3863, and had a worth of $ 5757 based on a ye bitcoin of $42.3K.

My mined inventory had an average bitcoin price of $28,362 for all the mining, so the price is now up 2x easy.

So when the halving occurs in April, I as well as everyone else mining will have to look at the value of the bitcoin being mined vs the cost of doing it. I am in a good position, because I don't have to make a short term profit, so as long as the net loss is not that much, I will let the miner run. Big companies don't have that luxury, but they probably pay less for power than I do although even my cost is very low, almost a third of what I am paying for my home electric.

I have a very fast miner and it is using 2554 kwh per month, which is easily more than double my house. This whole thing is sorta nuts if you really thing about it. Just imagine how much power is being used over the globe.

I don't understand why you are playing all these games. Are you trying to day trade SGOV?

I just sell at close to get money if I need it or buy if I have cash in account.

Looks like there were a couple of fills at 100.52.

From Charles Schwab. I assume this is industry wide.

Yes you are right. SGOV did hit 100.51 several times during the day and that must have been the number when I captured the prices at 3:15.

I see ask is still 100.51, so I very much doubt that your order will execute.

I put all me orders in for MOC, but realized after 3:50 that I was selling too much SGOV in one of my accounts in order to buy FLOT. I set up an order just after the close to buy back the SGOV I didn't intent to sell. When I tried to place the order, a message came up that AH trading would not start until 4:05. I set up a limit order at the closing price (also the asking) and executed it at 4:05 plus a few seconds, no problem, got the closing price.

It is now 4:10 and the asking has not changed yet, but I am sure it will. I am going to watch it and see if I can pin point the time of the change.

As Jaws posted, most of my trades for SGOV are done MOC, so I easily get the closing price. A week or so back, I placed orders immediately after the close, and I was able to get closing price. Seems if I am later than about 4:15, then I have to pony up another penny to the asking price. That happened last night when I realized I had a few dollars that I wanted to catch the jump today with. SGOV is up .04 this morning, so making .03. Small dollars but the right way to do it. I am finding it very easy to move in and out of SGOV.

I will take your word for it that that will not be the same with FLOT. Today is the day that I am going to starting moving money into FLOT, but I will just use MOC orders and not have to deal with any issues of b/a.

I also made the decision to keep my "trading money" in SGOV. SGOV is very consistent with how it moves, FLOT is not. FLOT jumps up one day and then down slightly another with no pattern that I can see. To capture the best gains, the money needs to stay put.

I am currently trading up to 125% investment, so that means I need to leave 41.7% plus a small reserve in SGOV. I have done a good job of keeping my cash <$1K.

I have really embraced the EOD trading. My alarm goes off at 3:15pm to tell me to go to my charts, review and make my decisions. I have to have my trades in by 3:50. On a rare occasion, I may really be on the fence about a trade, I have let the AH action make the decision for me. I have until 8pm for that decision.

I googled upcoming Treasury actions and was surprised at what I saw. I did fine today's action that you posted.

So far this month this is what has been actioned that was over 1 year.

$22B 30y today
$39B 10y 3/12

That is not much considering how much is going to be needed this year. The upcoming schedule has one 20yr auction.

This is going to get interesting.

I like the summary from the Treasury.

Wow, this is scary.

I am sure everyone read the article about our exploding deficit. The annualized receipts number is up .3% YOY, but Outlays are up 5%.

The deficit is up 17% and interest 18%. I am very surprised that interest paid annualized is holding near $1T. I would assume government doesn't accrue interest due, so until the bonds mature, no interest charged to government.

I looked but could not find how much debt is maturing by month, but I did find that $7.6T is maturing in the next 12 months. That is 20% of our current debt. Couple that with the facts 1. the FEDS have been the major buyers of the bonds in the past, 2. They are no longer buying, 3. There is not much interest in long term bonds (which have the cheapest interest rates, I would say we are going to see an explosion in both interest rates and interest paid.

Go FLOT!

I just updated my interest rate charts for Feb. Whoa, FLOT is on a tear and I really missed it. For the 12 days of Mar it is not looking so good, but still above SGOV. I am going to wait for the Thursdays bump in SGOV and then I am going to move a large chunk out of SGOV into FLOT.

Since FLOT (owned by iShares again) owns bonds that have floating interest rates, as interest rate rises so does the interest they get paid. FLOT's average maturity is 1.74 years, so I added the 2 year T bill to the data. It tracks really well with the change in FLOT APR. FLOT's average yield to maturity is 6.01%, the 6.23% APR for the first 12 days of March tracks well also since the 2 Year treasury has been pretty much flat.

I think until interest rates start to go down, this could be a good deal.

I do not have the fear of options week Friday like you do (marked on chart). I don't see anything in the charts that makes me want to do anything different for options week. If the market is in a downturn, one can expect a down day. If the market is in an uptrend, Fridays look just any other day. There is always a day here or there that is down even in an up market, but they are not concentrated to Friday.

I think the issue is that you are a day trader and therefore watchful of lots of things that I just ignore.

I am guessing that this Friday will be just another normal market day at least for me.

"maybe" still gotta break 3/8 hoy > I will be adding more daily TQQQ MOC, so will look forward to breaking a new lower high tomorrow.
OpEx hang "em" week - I don't play the game, but going long at the low of options week and holding til Mon or Tues is a big winner. I went long pretty close to the low. I guess I am playing the game, but really it is just my charts that I am playing.

Going to make a new daily high going into the close. I love it.

You're welcome.

I made my first buy of Bitcoin with BITO on 2/8. I switched to IBIT on 2/22 and have been very pleased with the tracking. From my first buy, I am now up almost 40%. Too bad I didn't buy more.

IBIT is iShares etf, so lots of volume. Expenses .15% vs .95% for BITO.