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So do tell, you believe that this drug is worth billions. Please explain why YOU believe the stock is at $1.28 a share, and a valuation close to $200m. $200m. Think about that. That is PATHETIC. And you think the quality of the people running the company has no bearing on the stock?!!
No one on here wants to address the actual stock. It is never discussed. Instead people on here want to live in a bubble world where they keep telling each other Vascepa is worth billions. ANd meanwhile the stock has been going down for 11 months. Consistent downtrend for nearly a year. On the fringes of apparently an early stoppage of a trial that is supposed to change the treatment of CVD. Yeah, makes perfect sense.
People continually post information on here that has absolutely no influence, and never will have influence, on the stock price. These far flung studies on all these different things are not going to affect AMRN. Obama's budget is not going to affect AMRN. The court cases are dead. It is way too late for NCE to matter. And on and on and on.
There is really nothing at this point that can move this stock back up. The only thing is buyout. That's it. The only other option would be for them to dilute so focus can shift to REDUCE-IT. But with the stock now so low, the dilution will be much too painful to be a positive.
I get that you all like to post all this info and get warm fuzzies and think that it actually matters. But very few of this info matters at all to the actual stock. AMRN isn't expanding into new indications. We won't know the study results until 2018. NCE isn't coming anytime soon. And 1A has had zero effect on script growth and the settlement is a non-event.
Management has made so many missteps that this is what we get. At this point there really isn't much left to discuss and many of you keep wasting your time posting non stop.
I am just baffled at the lack of anger about AMRN being at $1.28, a 52 week low close. And AMRN management refuses to take ANY positive steps towards repairing this company's image. But hey, they never miss a chance to award themselves stock!
Where is the substantive script growth? Where are the other ex-US partnerships? What in the hell are they doing with 1A, and why are they not hauling the FDA's ass back to court (just more time wasted playing games)? Why didn't you take care of the dilution at $2.50 when you had the freaking chance? Why did you give up the SPA appeals when there was no downside to completing them all the way through?
I know you all like to focus on the "science", and just rehashing the same information over and over and over and over, and to ignore the reality of the stock price, which in the end is all that matters. However, this stock price is about to jump up and bite us all majorly in the ass. You all can ignore it as you wish, but if the major dilution is forced to occur at these levels, it will be painful and destructive to shareholders. And as the stock seems pretty hopeless at this point to ever move back up near $2.50, each day that passes raises the odds that the dilution will have to occur at horribly low levels, making the financing kick us all hard in the nuts.
So keep ignoring it, but it is about to affect your pocketbook. They didn't take care of the issue when they had the chance at $2.50, and now look at what we get. And each day the need for the money increases, only pressuring the stock price more as the market will never let this move back up until the financial situation is cleared up. Been saying it since the mid-$2s, and the stock has gone down 50% since. But hey, I am just wrong and just being negative, right?
A horrible pathetic stock price is bringing up "negativity"? ha....ooook. Live in your bubble.
Meanwhile, back on earth, the lowest close in a year. $1.28 and falling stock price. But never mind that, carry on with the endless arguments over the same old discussion.
So you think that the trial is sure to succeed because they spent a lot of money on it?!
Regarding "declining costs once enrolled".
I don't know if I was the only person to notice this, but it stuck out to me on the Jan 11th press release. That PR said the following:
"The company anticipates that R&D expenses, excluding non-cash costs in 2016 will remain relatively consistent with 2015 levels with the majority of such spending devoted to the ongoing REDUCE-IT trial."
Now, we have been told directly by AMRN management that the most expensive phase of the trial is enrollment, and once enrollment is complete, they expected costs to start trailing off. Well, according to above, they expect REDUCE-IT costs to remain the same in 2016 as 2015. Why is that the case given enrollment is now basically complete? Why are costs not decreasing? Once the whole spiel about enrollment being the most expensive phase BS? More AMRN uncertainty and confusion...shocking.
And certainly a stop in the 1st half of the year doesn't jive with R&D remaining constant. But oh yeah, I forgot, they have to say that stuff, they are just concealing the early stop that is about to happen!
ohh...so "somebody knows something" and somehow that "something" is being expressed in a slogan on their website?
Is sniffing paint a hobby of people who post here?
Yeah, I am real sure.
People seem to have forgotten over the last several days that the PPS is at $1.38 and looking extremely weak. But hey, keep singing joys of riches just over the rainbow!
That's what I said. I said he said it could happen in the 2nd half of the year. Meaning he didn't say it had to happen in the 1st half and he said 2nd half was possible.
There is no "interim goal". The goal is 15% at the end of the trial. Unless it is stopped, AMRN will never know interim efficacy, so a "goal" of 15% is meaningless cause they will never see if that was met unless the trial is stopped. The only thing that can be considered an "interim goal" is that the efficacy isn't so low that the trial could be stopped for futility. Is 15% that goal? We know not.
On the last CC Thero stated that the conclusion if the interim analysis could happen in the 2nd half of this year.
Wrong. They emphasize continuation because that is overwhelmingly the most likely scenario. Just because retail longs on this board have deluded themselves into believing the trial is going to be stopped doesn't mean management rhetoric has all these ulterior motives. They stress continuation because not stressing continuation is paramount to fraud.
You don't understand the difference between when the 967th event actually happens and when the company is notified that the 967th event happened.
I brought this issue up a long time ago. Let me guess, you have me on ignore?
You are off your rocker.
You also need to go back I would think at least one month from 2/1/2016, in order to account for time to report events, etc. Events are surely not reported on the day they occur, and I expect that delay is probably a solid several weeks as someone has to investigate and make a determination of whether an event occurred. Then someone has to enter it into the database. Etc.
I would think to get closer to near accurate, you would have to run it through at 12/1/2015 or 1/1/2016.
Yeah, I am sure IR "hinted" to a retail investor in a reply that 967 had occurred. Don't be so gullible, there was no "hinting".
People emailing IR expecting a legitimate answer: you are wasting your time. No information of any value whatsoever is going to come out of an IR email. Save yourself the time and hassle!
I don't think the Co has commented anytime recently about when 967 will occur. They did occur on when the analysis is expected to be completed, but I don't think they addresses 967 (at least on the last CC). 967 most definitely could have happened already.
Right. That is why the stock is at $1.40 and near 52 week lows. Makes perfect sense. Thanks!
Again, hitting 967 is NOT a material event and would not alone stop him from buying stock. It is the outcome of the interim analysis that is material. Hitting 967 means nothing in and of itself!
Insanely dumb plan.
Agreed. I have no idea why he is allowed to buy shares right now. I was under the impression that the only times insiders could buy stock on the open market was about a 3 week period after earnings are released. I thought they were forbidden to buy immediately before an earnings release, ie right now.
It is quite mind boggling. JT is already being paid around $750k between base pay and bonus. What in the world has this guy done to not only deserve that, but also millions of shares in awards/options on top of that?! Last time I looked, scripts have been growing well less than expectations and there is still no NCE in the OB. The list of accomplishments is quite small. Not to mention the stock is at 50 week lows.
Not an issue if 1A negotiations aren't a material event, no?
And trial end date?
I would be interesting in hearing on when your simplified analysis would predict the trial to end based on these extremely high efficacy estimates. When would interim occur and the trial end at 5.3% placebo and 30% efficacy?
And shareholders just lost more value. Isn't dilution fun?
NCE OBed this month "for sure"?? Oh boy, here we go again. OB isn't coming this month. Probably not likely to happen for a couple more months at least. The "for sure" predictions haven't been thrown around here before, right? I guess if you you keep saying it every month then one month you might end up being right.
Yes, I think full enrollment would be a PR. 967 would not as the result of the interim analysis is the event. PRing 967 would be a dumb move and just create a trading nightmare and creation of binary event. Trading would be all over the map I assume and extremely volatile as people would have no idea when the interim analysts would be announced. 967 isn't what means something; it is the result of the analysis after 967 that is the news.
But yes, we have been told that the most expensive phase of REDUCE-IT is enrollment, so completing that phase and hopefully moving to lower REDUCE-IT expenses going forward is definitely PR worthy.
And we must have different definitions of what constitutes "interesting" for a stock I am invested in. Form 4s and a whole slew of other things that aren't significant and won't touch moving the PPS don't constitute "interesting" to me.
Well, need a 50% move back up to get back to $2 a share. So major news is needed to get back. Otherwise $2 won't be happening. So we can look forward to $2 if one of those events happens. Yay! Back to $2! Party! And most of those things you list aren't a big deal. Form 4s? Really? That is interesting? ha...yeah I can't wait to see how management is getting more vesting or RSUs! That surely will move this stock up!
Just another management disappointment. We were told enrollment by end of year. Then it was "around end of year, might slip into next year". Now we are moving into February and still nothing. Just like everything else, management comes up short. Shocker.
Just like ANCHOR, right?
At the least, getting AMRN to delay buys them time. Time to come up with a new strategy, time to come up with legal arguments, etc. Time is gold right now for the FDA as they address these issues. If AMRN would have taken them back to court right away they would have had a major advantage. Now all bets are off.
The FDA settled with Pacira and are delaying AMRN, so right now the FDA has lost nothing and is winning the game. The FDA is never going to give AMRN anything significant. But giving the FDA 5 extra months to come up with new strategies was a bad idea. I don't know what the FDA end game is here, but I do know that the more time they get benefits them. Time to come up with a way to make AMRN go away without giving them anything significant and without AMRN getting a final ruling. Perhaps dropping little nuggets that you better play nice with us or have hell to pay if REDUCE-IT ever comes up for approval?
AMRN could fail and JT and JZ and the others will still walk away with tens of millions of dollars. Add up the salaries and bonuses they have been paid over the years and all the stock they sold in the teens in 2012. They have virtaully 0 skin in the game at this point. AMRN goes to $0...oh well....they still walk with millions. At this point AMRN is only upside to them, there is no downside, no skin. They won't even buy stock on the open market in significant amounts under $2 a share!! They have won the game, anything else that may come about is gravy. But at this point they don't need anything else to happen for them to be millionaires for the rest of their lives.
I guarantee that AMRN is getting played like fools with the FDA during these "negotiations". Guaranteed the FDA is dangling small little carrots that will never actually materialize, in order to delay and delay and stop AMRN from going after the final ruling. And AMRN is too dumb to realize it. Months and months have been wasted. Then AMRN has the balls to tell us on the CC that the goal is final ruling. Weak AMRN. Weak.
But the FDA is about to give them Anchor!! AMRN just keeps delaying and waiting and surely the FDA will give them everything in the world! Don't you know, time will fix everything, the FDA is going to do a 180 any day now!
ha...no high expectations?! Have you looked at the "guess the stop date" contest? And you are telling me people don't have have expectations?! (And I was referring to retail expectation, not institutions...ie the people who post on here. Retail expectations are out of control; institutions clearly are not).
Since REDUCE-IT interim is such a slam dunk and anyone with a little science background can make that determination, then the stock certainly wouldn't be at $1.41 a share. Right now AMRN is valued at less than $300m!! And supposedly just a little science and number crunching produces that a multi billion dollar study stoppage is literally months away? Are you saying that life science investors are not capable of doing the same analysis as JL and HD?
I laid this out a while back, but I was in a very similar situation with another biotech a few years back. It was a bladder cancer trial, and many knowledgeable posters were spewing all sorts of science and reasons why this study was a slam dunk. One was even a urologist. They convinced me that the study was a slam dunk, as their "science" and arguments were so compelling. The stock price was low and we couldn't believe for the life of us why that was. Wall street wasn't seeing things! Well, both studies failed. The point of the story? Take what anonymous posters on an internet message board say with a grain of salt. They have no secret knowledge or arguments that aren't known to people who invest tens of millions in biotechs. And right now, the money has spoken: no dice on interim stop.
If the stock was rallying and approaching $5 a share or more, I would share a lot of the optimism. Contrary to what people say on here, the stock price does matter. And it contains a lot of information. Ignoring that is extremely naive.
I don't think we will see a "JELIS type subgroup" result at interim. Perhaps it is possible at the end of a full trial, but not at interim.