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House Bill 6...$411 million of funding is to
go to Florida to 'preserve everglades'...
Bill flew thru Congress for partial
Gov't spending and goes to Senate
to avert shut down again...
Spending that could be put off keeps
showing up while the U.S. cannot
defend the southern border...
Texas efforts to defend the southern
border of U.S. have now been halted
by court delay to review State Rights...
$411 million of unneeded funding sticks
out like a sore thumb in the reckless
growing U.S. Debt Crisis...
U.S. Federal Debt is now over 123%
of total U.S. GDP....
$34.4 Trillion growing U.S Debt Crisis
cannot find answers to it in D.C...
https://www.usdebtclock.org/
Overspending on U.S. military now is
about the only thing to cut in places
to reduce U.S Deficit spending...
Everglades need Gov't preserving...
Swamps Must Be Protected...
-------------------------------------------------
TM, 9.5?huge number yen versus 9.7
in year ago 1st quarter isn't a
sharp drop off...
Big number has to be them selling
less units than years ago...
A Toyota Camry might cost over
30,000 now that cost around 14,000
or so around ten years ago...
Obama bail outs of auto industry
have surged the new car inflation...
All new car sellers thought that every
trade in should be worth 4,000 or more
despite age or condition that the gov't
GAVE them during Obama bail outs...
Auto industry didn't react with appreciation
for that to their customers...
Auto companies took advantage and
have had excessive price inflation in
new car prices for many years...
At some point, excessive pricing should
bite the whole auto industry on their
greedy rears with lower sales...
Now is as good of a time as any to
see lower new car sales trend...
More is less...
So we watch...LJ
Houthi sharks tasted blood in Red Sea waters...
https://www.barchart.com/story/news/24596479/houthi-missile-attack-kills-3-crew-members-in-yemen-rebels-first-fatal-assault-on-shipping
U.S. oil markets tossed out almost
a $2/bbl tip on Wednesday for Iran
oil sales for the excitement delivered...
So we watch...LJ
NYCB, every time you can turn those
sold calls over for 20% profit,
lowers cost basis faster...
Only .20 move on 1.10 to do it...
Will fluctuate with each new contract
sold and then bot to close...
so we watch...LJ
TM, it is called worldwide recession...
could be playing in local theatres
soon,
Nah, no one needs to know in an
election year...
so we watch...LJ
NVD added to on the gift aisle Wednesday...
Expecting exercise on VTLE sold
calls next Friday to start taking
the position build more serious...
Have to buy winners for 2025 on the
gift aisle if you are a peon...
So we watch...LJ
U.S. has appeared in recession mode in January
and February based on gasoline data
usage at stations...
Last week continued the weakness...
https://www.gasbuddy.com/go/national-average-jumps-double-digits-as-summer-blend-switch-begins
The EIA data is too far off the demand
numbers this week to bother posting...
Believe the tech data tracking or don't...
Peon opinion on that, of course...
Iran is probably buying chips in mass
to make weapons to supply to Russia
and other factions they back...
U.S. politicians may have bet big
on that expectation...
After so many people get killed, that
type trend will slow too...
Russia should just go ahead and over
run little Ukraine and get it over with...
Then China could get back to more
biz and help restore world economy
levels back to more stable basis...
Israel has plenty of people in Gaza left
that they can kill, but they have already
alienated themselves from the peace
following, natured people watching....
So we watch...LJ
02/23/24, red line for current natural gas
in storage above the other four
trend lines isn't what you want to
see on chart in link...
https://en.macromicro.me/charts/39418/natural-gas-inventory-five-year-inventory
Low tide for nat gas demand due
to start in late March,
and inventory usually starts moving
back to injection or build phase...
And the bounce back on nat gas prices
came for that April build time...
A reason that the bounce may struggle
to hold even with recent company
production reductions announced...
Oil well drilling has been showing a
small uptick for each week recently
for rigs because oil price has been
propped up during weak demand...
Oil drilling still bringing on nat gas
production mutes some of the bigger
nat gas company retreats...
So we watch...LJ
Oil-gas, China slowdown held steady course
in February....
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-exports-likely-slowed-jan-feb-factories-struggle-2024-03-06/
China did buy up a wad of cheap
LNG from U.S. recently when the
natural gas price dropped so low...
It helped relieve pressure then on
the U.S. natural gas inventory growth
for a short period...
U.S. refiners running at 12% to 14%
below average run rates and driving
up gasoline price is something that
Trump could swing at Joe on...
So we watch...LJ
toilet paper, stock up on it if you
think Trump is going back in...
so we watch...LJ
Nvda appears biggest bubble in market history
for a single company...
https://stocktwits.com/Sonicden/message/564515281
The pump crew will roll money into
something else when selling, so you
can't count on Qs dropping too big...
A lot of other pumps are following the
massive NVDA pump because that is how
market pump and dumps are designed...
Sorry for your loss on Smci when you
chose to sell when interest rates rose...
Holding 10% of companies when selling
that were bot with expectations of price
moves higher can reduce some buzzard
luck of seeing them fly later...
Not 10% of already high priced pumps,
10% of carefully selected picks...
Even companies dumped on bad tidings
have higher cost basis than after falls...
So we watch...LJ
GRRR .79, you have to go to YakDonalds
to find a better deal than this...
So we watch...LJ
Ms. Haley should be solid third on Tuesday...
lol, Democrats can't cross over and
vote for her in most primary states...
That does add to race suspense...
So we watch...LJ
Israel looks like self-appointed gustapo in Gaza...
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/3/5/israels-war-on-gaza-live-israeli-attacks-on-aid-seekers-continue
China economy went in toilet after
backing putin...
U.S. orders could start fading from
some foreign buyers also now...
Democratic party focus on increasing war
related commerce works,,,
But it can hurt other parts of economy...
U.S. debt can't be serviced by a chip
pump alone...
Seizing betcoin as a gambling token
might help a little while...
Laff if you want to at that idea, but when
the U.S. seized all gold in the past
there wasn't any folks laughing...
So we watch...LJ
GRRR had a large fund sale filed for
Monday...
https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=17336989&guid=Wbd-kqs1ahhEY0h
The fund has a mothership corporation
that appears that it could get in some
type competition with GRRR ahead...
Was the original investment made to
get on the Board to snoop?...
One of the odder filings ever run across
when following companies...
Bad timing if Asteria just needed $500,000
or more quickly right now...
Don't have enough GRRR to let Asteria
turn it into hysteria over their sale...
Still very odd looking to me...
So we watch...LJ
Tech, what would Possess someone to put
600,000 into a company for some
reason and then not hold it for
some of the gains it has had?...
Forget all this current bubbly froth now...
There was some serious gravy missed
there since only February of 2023...
Is that real or play dough positions?...
So we watch...LJ
Don't buy old gasoline from gov't preserve...
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Northeast-Gasoline-Reserve-Could-Be-Sold-Off.html
Sounds like a poster that I've read,
storing gasoline over three months
and expecting it to stay good...
If the gov't has ownership in fresh
gasoline stock piles that are constantly
turning over that might be different...
But that wouldn't be a real stock pile
for emergency above most floated
about private stock pile numbers in
case of emergencies...
That is one phocked up thing to
ponder there...
So we watch...LJ
lol, a device the size of your microwave
oven could be available soon from
Ai production...
It will offer much more computing
aid than your ole pear phone...
The size will be heavy because over
90% of it will be needed to cool the
larger stream of chips in series...
Better start working out if you are
planning to transition in future...
So we watch...LJ
AAPL down, the ole pear phone demand
may be hinting more of where
real world chip demand is moving...
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/AAPL/overview
So we watch...LJ
KOLD down, rebound of nat gas price in
April and May could be a set up
for more price weakness...
Why should those prices have rebounded
as two of the slower demand months?...
For short set ups seems possible...
And the oil/gas sector companies rebounded
at the same time as nat gas price rebound...
Refiners prices being pumped up with weaker
fuel demand could be to pump up
prices on customers...
Downside potential seems to be weighted
higher than upside now...
If you can't beat the mega tech bubble
pumpers, watch the regular movers...
So we watch...LJ
Chip tech bubble showing signs that smart
money is already out...
Less resistance shows up in easier
price moves by the pump crews...
There shouldn't be any loud booming
crash as the bear mode takes over...
A slow bleed off on prices over an
extended period is more probable...
Only after the negatives of too slow
of sales circulate is when the crew of
analysts go negative and then usually
cause the bottom price spike...
No hurry to add on short hedging as
the process tends to stretch out...
So we watch...LJ
New York real estate doom...NYCB weakness
is getting very little chatter...
Better to quietly sell first and
then talk about what happened
could be in play now...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/23/politics/trump-judgment-civil-fraud-ruling/index.html?iid=cnn_buildContentRecirc_end_recirc
At least, an appeal is in play now...
In an election year, everything could
fall apart before the media dares to
blab much about it...
So we watch...LJ
Transistors, this tech bubble is selling chip dreams...
Transistors and chips...
https://homework.study.com/explanation/how-many-transistors-does-a-modern-laptop-computer-have.html#:~:text=A%20laptop%20processor%20has%20approximately,can%20vary%20widely%20among%20laptops.
https://www.pcmag.com/encyclopedia/term/transistor
Computing speed on every day items
has surged because mega more transistors
are now on a single, tiny chip...
NVDA CEO thinks the limit has been
reached on that process...
However, the current tech bubble is rolling
on a belief that the current increased speeds
available will attract more buyers...
SGI history is where you refer to a company
that grew the fastest computing speed available
in it's time, and weather forecasting for instance
improved in speed because of it...
SGI proved faster than market acceptance for
it's products and then went bk, a real tragedy...
Current tech bubble scene has companies
piling into more uncharted waters...
Mid 1980s history for tech is the reference
point to compare to now, not dotcom...
Absolute euphoria across the tech sector
changed and wiped out many fortunes...
https://www.nytimes.com/1985/06/10/business/computer-makers-in-a-severe-slump.html
That was a brave new frontier learning experience
in a growing sector...
Current tech bubble has many start ups
coming also like early 1980s had...
Transistors maxing out on chips should
start to encourage price competition,
which is needed in tech items...
Non stop rises in costs to buy a smart
phone for example will benefit consumers
when prices drop because of competition...
That will be the good outcome eventually...
But for now you need to wonder how many
new SGI types were created in 2023 alone
by only NVDA loaning money to start ups
that buy chips from them...
New chip companies coming at a dime a
dozen rate like disk drive makers in the
1980s will have to compete ahead...
Only one top tier computing speed
company, SGI, failed in a not too
distant past in tech sector history...
So we watch...LJ
Opec+ expects China and Europe downturn to linger
into 2nd quarter and maintains
current production targets...
So we watch...LJ
PEP is my fav chip play if this
market ever does correct...
Would prefer to buy with dip...
So we watch...LJ
ISM Manufacturing PMI contracting for 16 months
in a row after being down again
in February data...
Data at 18 minutes into video...
https://stocktwits.com/TheSharting/message/564049669
ISM data seems more in line than
S & P Global data on constant basis...
Durable Goods Orders had a nice uptick
one month late in 2023, likely as items sold
off during holiday season,
which transitioned to February blip up
in manufacturing data...
January data across the boards contracted
from retail sales to...Durable Goods Orders
which were down in January, 2024,,,
which typically takes a few months to come
into manufacturing data from plants...
March or April likely to see the manufacturing
go back into lower mode...
Employment numbers are totally skewed by
Gov't using Seasonality , like in January when
the economy was drooping hard, and the
numbers are hard to swallow...
We do know good paying jobs have been
dropping with layoffs at many big names
for over a year now...
Guy in video does mention the continuing
claims numbers stuck in hold mode,,,
Durable Goods Orders, even skewed now
by questionable defense spending, are
still a key item too watch for future,
ex defense orders now is probably best...
Three months of declining Durable Goods
Orders does signal contraction mode...
Nothing about the roaring tech stock prices
now hint that there is broad reason to believe
that the stresses on commercial property
loan values are improving...Underlying drop
in materials cost to maintain property don't
improve those valuations either...
Circle takes everyone back to watching banks...
Happy bankers loan money easier...
So we watch...LJ
SQQQ, SOXS, NVD, a single event could wipe
out 25% of Nasdaq Index value
in one trading day...
It would take all day with halts if
a trigger event occurred...
Nasdaq Index is up about 49% and
Nasdaq 100 is up about 56% in
the recent 52 week period...
One supplier has the whole balloon rise
in share prices depending on them...
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/analyst-estimates-nvidia-is-now-tsmcs-second-largest-customer-accounting-for-11-of-revenue-in-2023#:~:text=Apple%20has%20been%20TSMC's%20top,revenue%20for%20quite%20a%20while.
A single event , accident or sabotage,
at that supplier which halts production
would impair the Industry so Overly
dependent on it...
This is the top reason that a bubble in
prices has to be considered now...
#1 buyer has 225% higher chips buys
versus #2 buyer, but #2 buyer has a
market cap that soared to about 80%
of market cap of #1 buyer...
Which shows where the bubble grew
the most...
So we watch...LJ
I've owned plenty of companies that doubled
their share count in a year...
Not a lot of fond memories of those
to share though...
so we watch...LJ
VTLE share count more than doubled
in 2023...
Common stock, $0.01 par value, 80,000,000
and 40,000,000 shares authorized, and
35,413,551 and 16,762,127 issued and
outstanding as of December 31, 2023 and 2022,
VTLE didn't get any doubling of production
with that share increase due to the high
price paid for last acquisition...
VTLE closed at $41ish price on 3/17/2023
which was a Friday, monthly op ex day...
So we watch...LJ
Top heavy, tech bubble in this market seems
to get more confirmation in the
returns of Pick 4 contest...
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173956768
Only 52 stock picks out of 128
are even or positive, ex cash choice...
The Pick 4 contest results YTD don't
show a vibrant new world of everything
is a winning...
It looks more like the Haves are separating
more from Have Nots in the whole market...
note...Banks need to increase interest margin
returns on peep's loans now to offset any
weakness developing on commercial property
loans held that may default...
No rest for weary peons ahead...
So we watch...LJ
... 'Building a Tech Bubble 101' ...
...recipe...
1. mix in 8 quarters of weak pc sales...
2. add a quarter of rebound pc sales
off the bottom...
https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/01-10-2024-gartner-says-worldwide-pc-shipments-increased-zero-point-three-percent-in-fourth-quarter-of-2023-but-declined-fourteen-point-eight-percent-for-the-year
3. stir up a market cap of social media
platform to ten times annual revenue,,,
most users don't know it's value anyway...
4. avoid current weaker economic activity
being considered in any discussion...
VIP , don't mention weaker auto sales
that use chips...
https://www.automotivedive.com/news/new-vehicle-sales-forecast-january-2024-cox-automotive/705905/
don't mention weaker retail sales of
any type that use chips...
https://www.ey.com/en_us/strategy/macroeconomics/retail-sales-january-2024
VIP, DO NOT MENTION weaker Smart
Phone sales, or weaker sales projections
from the leader which uses chips...
https://www.pymnts.com/news/retail/2024/report-us-smartphone-sales-dip-10-percent-as-consumers-delay-upgrades/
Everyone would be leery then...
So we watch...LJ
Israel keeps increasing Gaza death toll...
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/1/hamas-says-seven-captives-killed-in-israeli-army-bombing-of-gaza
so we watch...LJ
4th quarter, 2023 in U.S. may be like
top of roller coaster ride compared
1st quarter, 2024 heading down...
Just keep looking back and the market
won't notice a decline ahead...
Oil price has inverted from 4th quarter
to 1st quarter when looking for excess...
So we watch...LJ
Oil price bubbling up as China contraction
continued in February in their
manufacturing sector...
Oil price excess now is nearing toe
to toe with tech high pricing...
Just keep looking in rear view mirror and
not ahead and everything is lovely...
So we watch...LJ
SOXS share starter today, Wall Street Buy Programs
can drive prices to excesses that
mere mortals find eye catching...
Wall street sell programs can make
just as much when they reverse the
money flow activity...
A slumping U.S. economy in core heartland
now makes the buy programs look even
more astounding...
So we watch...LJ
betcoin quotes may be draining too much power...
do you want to pay higher rates
for more speed?...
or just adapt to the new slower tech
world needing more power...
'Scotty, we need more power!'...
Query, will the market even notice it
when some hackers with Ai disrupt
major finance message sites?...
So we watch...LJ
Firm lowers 2024 global oil demand forecast...
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Wood-Mac-Shaves-1-Million-BPD-off-Global-Oil-Demand-Forecast.html
Still seems a lot of hope on a
China recovery starting in any
global demand increase forecast...
So we watch...LJ
Low natural gas price review article...
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Gas-Prices/Natural-Gas-Futures-Markets-Wild-Swings-Set-To-Continue.html
so we watch...LJ
$SOX has had above historic norm rise
rate above 2022 high levels now,
if a 2% to 3% growth rate from
2022 levels is all that is achieved
in their current sector rebound,,,
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$SOX/interactive-chart
Almost 20% increase above those 2022
levels showing now needs a lot more
growth above those 2022 sale's levels
to justify the move...
Why would over 1% annual increase rate
of sales be worth a higher premium?
So we watch...LJ
12% annual wage inflation rate in January
if the good times keep rolling...
Jan personal income rose +1.0% m/m,
stronger than expectations of +0.4% m/m
and the biggest increase in a year.
A touch above targets...
So we watch...LJ