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Lefty, thanks for the critique. I went back and re-read the renko stuff again. Geez... As a former teacher, I think the saying is true... On anything new, people only retain 30% of what they read/learn in the 1st pass. Then another 30% on the 2nd, and finally by the 3rd they should remember it all. (That is unless you are my sister with a photographic memory. Sure helped her through med school.
Strange, renko chart is not showing up. $NDX Renko Test. Deja vu? Notice the similarity between Last July/August and Current May/June. Need to get above $NDX 1920 to create new brick for a trend reversal.
Heh... I forgot mention thanks to Gleno, Be, 2xer and I know I am missing a lot of people's names. But thanks everyone for the insights!
QQQQ - 10min chart showing a MACD Divergence and a possible inverse H+S. Target for move is ~46.43 which is close to the 100dma. (Watch the QQQQ Neckline @ 45.75. Break up of 45.75 and we may get that price objective.
SPY - 10min I-H+S too? Target ~129.5? Watch the neckline @ 128.27. Break of 128.27 and we may see the Price Obj. of ~129.5.
These are small bounces. The trend on Daily and Weekly chart is still down. So if you are trend trading that means, short the bounces. If you are counter-trend trading you'll have to be quick with your finger on the trigger otherwise as foot says you may have a clunker when the overall trend flexes and exerts it's muscles. LOL... (Edit if you buy this bounce put a tight stop right below the neckline.)
Foot, yeah I am starting to realize that counter-trend trading has been not only stressful, but at times yeah I've had clunkers or stressful trades only to break even or make a couple pennies. I am starting to finally realize it thanks to you, blasher and a couple others on this board like leftyg.
Be, thanks for posting that video. BTW- I am also looking at Zig/Zag. It's pretty interesting and used in order to confirm a trend, like renko, and P&F charts.
From my 60min chart, notice the Zig/Zag (dark blue line) back up. It uses trend reversals as well. It is typical for people to use 5%/10%/15% for the price movement. I'm new to zigzags but, personally, I think a 5% move is pretty big so I wouldn't use 10% or 15% unless it was on the weekly charts. I'm looking at ZigZag for the 60min charts because the realtime charts that I use do not support 60min renko. I've changed the % from default of 1% to 2% to avoid whipsaws. I think 2% is pretty generous since at $NDX 1855 that equates to 37.1 $NDX points. I think we have to hit the 20dma (~1883) sooner or later before price continues with the downtrend or we start a new upleg. We could also hit the 34dma, the white like at ~1896. (Hard to believe about a new upleg, but... you never know. Look at the renko chart I posted perviously and the symmetry between the current downtrend on the $NDX from June08 with July07's drop.)
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=30347479
For example: "ZigZag set at 10% with OHCL bars would yield a line that only reverses after a change from high to low of 10% or greater. All movements less than 10% would be ignored. If a stock traded from a low of 100 to a high of 109, the ZigZag would not draw a line because the move was less than 10%. If the stock advanced from a low of 100 to a high of 110, then the ZigZag would draw a line from 100 to 110. If the stock continued on to a high of 112, this line would be extended to 112 (100 to 112). The ZigZag would not reverse until the stock declined 10% or more from its high. From a high of 112, a stock would have to decline 11.2 points (or to a low of 100.8) for the ZigZag to reverse and display another line."
Gleno, this is a daily renko chart. Notice last July and the 3 boxes down/then a trend reversal. We are there right now, but this time the drop happened to be in June instead of July. I guess we will see. I am using the ATR. I spent all last night reading about Renko. The ATR (Average True Range) is great so you don't have to calculate the price range/points yourself since it varies greatly from say a $500 Goog stock to maybe a $5 Small Cap. For us to get a trend change we need to go up past 1920 on the nasdaq in order to create a new white brick up from the recent downtrend red brick.
Gleno, this is a daily renko chart. Notice last July and the 3 boxes down/then a trend reversal. We are there right now, but this time the drop happened to be in June instead of July. I guess we will see. I am using the ATR. I spent all last night reading about Renko. The ATR (Average True Range) is great so you don't have to calculate the price range/points yourself since it varies greatly from say a $500 Goog stock to maybe a $5 Small Cap.
Foot, I did a look back to 1985 on the $NDX and the last day of the month through an Access database. Anyhow, 59% of the time in June on the last day of the month/end of quarter it was up. 41% down. Not great odds. But I'm in favor of a 1-2 day ST bounce. Pre/Post 4th of July is a crap shoot it's about 50/50 for up or down. Too bad VTOReport is gone. I liked that site a lot, now I have to spend time crunching the numbers myself.
Didn't know this but looking at this forbes magazine article,
The guy who had the VTOReport site:
http://www.forbes.com/best/2001/1203/013_print.html
Vaughn Okumura
Site: www.VTOReport.com
Location: Pearl City, Hawaii
At 36, Vaughn Okumura, CPA, is retired and living in Hawaii. His story is the same as many successful individual investors: a few hard knocks at the start, "visions of losing it all" as a stock account balance was depleted and a final, miraculous recovery. Okumura says his holdings went from $35,000 to $7,000 to $2 million after taxes in a matter of ten years.
He started his site, VTO Report, in 1998 to satisfy his passion for stock investing and to teach others his technical analysis techniques. Fundamentals? "It's like driving forward by looking in the rearview mirror," he says. On the other hand, "the chart of a stock will give you clues as to how a particular company is operating long before it reports its earnings."
"Okumura's most successful strategy outlined on the site is his short-term trades of the Nasdaq 100 index. Up 10% year-to-date and 184% since 1997, the portfolio uses a simple relative strength indicator to determine when the market is overbought and oversold. His site's "smooth" stocks are consistent winners over many years. "Most investors buy stocks in a downtrend thinking they've uncovered a bargain," he cautions. "But in most cases, they end up with a portfolio of clunkers."
BTW here is his rule for anyone interested. Does anyone trade it?
NDX 5-day RSI Buy Signal Strategy
There used to be a site (vtoreport.com) that only bought into the market when a buy signal was triggered as follows:
"Buy the Nasdaq 100 Trust (QQQQ) when the 5-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) closes below 30.0.
Sell the Nasdaq 100 Trust (QQQQ) when the 5-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) closes above 50.0.
The Nasdaq 100 Trust is purchased during after-hours trading on the day the RSI buy signal is generated.
The Nasdaq 100 Trust is sold during after-hours trading on the day the RSI sell signal is generated.
The 5-day RSI strategy has a tendency to underperform the buy-and-hold strategy when the market is strong and outperform when the market is weak.
1997 to 2005 Results: NDX "Buy & Hold"up 76.2%, "5 day RSI" up 349.7%
1997 to 2006 Results: NDX "Buy & Hold"up 108.3%, "5 day RSI" up 381.8% "
Woah... Did you see those big volume buys on the QQQQs? The 1st set @ 14:05 was sold into by huge selling but buying interest is starting to pick up. Last post of the day so good luck everyone. Staying flat and will enjoy the weekend. It's suppose to be 80 today and possibly 88 on Sunday in Seattle this weekend! What a major heatwave. Back in MD I use to think 105 was a heatwave with 95% humidity. Now I'm soft. LOL!
(EDIT - If we close positive today, may be more up on Monday to close the books.)
Yeah I agree. But why do I feel hesitant in going long? (Edit - Good thing I am waiting and watching. Looks like QQQQs failed again for the 6th time @ the 50dma/5min.) BTW - watch QQQQ @ 45.40 which is the 50dma/5min chart. We've been repelled off of that line 5 times since yesterday. Will we get lucky number 6 and finally break through w/ some volume? BTW - USO has been steadily dropping from HOD 115.77 now 114.74.
I am seeing a falling wedge pattern forming on the 60min which could signal a reversal. If we break the upper trendline of the falling wedge we may have a short term rally. We will have to break QLD 73.34 on the next hourly bar or QQQQ 45.21. (Edit I've included a 60min chart)
May be we retrace back to the blue line? which is the 20dma on my 60min chart @ 77.20 or QQQQ 46.37. Then back down to test that 2nd gap below?
Gleno, you do mean QID right? Not QQQQ... BTW - may be we close that 2nd gap today! QQQQ 44.35 is where it's at! $COMP about to close that 4/15 gap at 2291! $NDX needs to get to 1803 for that QQQQ/$NDX gap to close. Only 26 more points down to go. Should've shorted the bounce on that bear flag but didn't. I guess there is always a next time.
Blasher, LOL. I guess I am actually learning a thing or two. BTW - Volume is weak and doesn't look like it's confirming this uptrend. I am a bit suspicious.
Gleno, QQQQs hit that 50dma again now backing off. QQQQs 5min 50dma is moving down with the price action. The 50dma is now 45.62. Let's see if the QQQQs will give it one more go or if we fall out of the bottom channel of this bearish flag which would be ~45.45, the bottom/line in the sand.
QQQQs need to get past 45.65 5min 50dma now. That line has repelled the past 4 rally attempts. (edit - If we don't get past the 45.65 it looks like a bearish flag forming on the 5min.) I guess we will find out soon.
No, didn't take it since the trend has been down and I had a feeling the 5min 50dma would be the rejection point again as was twice yesterday. I am waiting til 11-11:30AM to see what happens, if we break out of the high of day or low of day. But I guess I am trying to really figure out if the pros decides to salvage anything left of this Month before they close the books on Monday or if they let things go which is down with the trend.
I've noticed one thing as Woodfish has mentioned, trade NERS with the current trend. So if the trend is down, more than likely any buying opportunity will be a false signal and it is better to open shorts than longs.
I think with NERS in order to really spot a trend change you need to go out to the 30/60min charts and look for the confirmation in the signals there. I need to backtest and look at NERS more, it definitely works for a lot of people, but I need to figure out a way to mitigate against false signals/whipsaws so I don't get stopped out so much. Will definitely look into it more this weekend.
Woodfish, thanks! I am going to study your chart further today and on the weekend and look at some of the past trigger points.
Be, no problem. I actually it as an HTML file.
Here you go, just cut and paste below the ^^^^ to notepad or word and save it as "renko.html" or something like that. It automagically refreshes after 60seconds but you can change that to 30 or less if you want.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
<html><head><title>Renko</title><meta http-equiv=refresh content=60>
1. $NDX:<p><img src="http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NDX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=4&i=p89399576790&a=109886550&r=552"<p><p>
2. $SPX:,p><img src="http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=4&i=p89399576790&a=109886550&r=552"<p><p>
3. $MID:<p><img src="http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$MID&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=4&i=p89399576790&a=109886550&r=552"<p><p>
4. $INDU:<p><img src="http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=4&i=p89399576790&a=109886550&r=552"<p><p>
Tictac, that is a cool chart, definitely takes out the noise! Too bad it's not real-time, but I've modified it to the indexes so that is real-time now. Thanks!
FWIW, NERS 5min gave a long signal @ ~74.60 QLD/45.60 QQQQ. Hitting some resistance right now @ QQQQ 45.88 (Edit which is the 50dma on the 5min and acted as resistance yesterday). I guess that is the number to watch. Who knows, may be the fund mgrs will try to salvage whatever is left of this month as the close the books.
Be, where do you get realtime $NAMO quotes? TIA.
Gleno, agree with DCB/Reverse, but I think it'll be a good place to short the bounce. I think $NDX 1775 or even march lows are possible (Comp 2200). 9 new nasdaq highs? Nasdaq still has some ways to go to hit the weekly trendline.
SPX out of price channel and needs to get back in to short more. $SPXA50R in reversal territory. This doesn't mean we won't go down lower, we just need a bounce so that it can go lower and put some fear in the $VIX/$VXN/$VXO. $SPX dropped slightly below 2005 weekly trendline.
DOW dropped below 2004 Weekly trendline!
I am looking for Scam's DD (double deuce) and 3-DD (triple Deuce) which are quite rare for re-entry into longs as they typically begin to signal bottoming formations and a trend reversal.
WEEKLY:
OT - Gleno, good post. If people don't like capitalism nor the U.S.A they are welcome to leave. I am sure there are plenty in the world willing to sacrifice life and limb to be in the U.S. Inflation sucks but look at Zimbabwe $5Billion dollar bills? Talk about sucky politician well look at North Korea and their oppressive regime or any other country with dictators who claim that they are there to help the poor and fix the injustice in their country but are corrupt instead.
BTW - I just read the Costco Connection. If you still owe money on your house at 70 you should still be working instead of complaining that your SS money isn't enough and that you only have $20K saved and still $65K on the mortgage. I'm sorry but that's just how things are. I've been frugal and working since 12 and hope to retire in 10-15 years. So, unless you are Bill Gates w/ his foundation may be you can change the world. But as mere mortals and since I doubt any of us are Billionaires, it is probably better to help the people immediately around us and help better our own community. GTC sounds like my brother, idealistic/Utopian society, equality for all until my brother went/lived in China for a year and changed his mind. The Marxist/socialist system never works due to greed and corruption because of innate human weakness. In addition some people just don't try hard enough and are victims. Sometimes life deals people sucky cards. It's up to the individual to decide whether to quit/fold or stay/continue on for the turn.
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=8693464&Refer=/index.html
May be we should be investing here! LOL LOL!!! Until Mugabe decides everything is his to take.
Foot I just spent the past hour pouring through $NDX back data from Present Day to 1/3/2000. It has only happened 80 times where we've close -4% or more in one day on the $NDX.
It is also a crap shoot whether we close positive the next day. Looking at the stats we had ~53% chance of closing positive and ~47% closing negative. The average gain the next day was about equal. I can't remember the exact number from my spreadsheet but it was something like either an approx -2.5% average down or approx +2.75%. (That is the average gain/loss the next day since 1/3/2000 after a 4% or greater drop in one day.) Anyhow, one thing that I checked was the high of day the following day and there was a bounce in almost all cases from the 4% negative close. Whether it bounces higher or lower into the close is about an equal chance. Anyone has a quarter?
My bet is tomorrow we bounce off the big negative $NDX close from today and then we go lower into the close for another -2 to -3% drop. But I guess we will find out.
Made a mistake QQQQ bottom of gap appears to be @ 45.75 HoD on 4/17. We are about to close the gap. QQQQs @ 45.79. (Edit coming close to the -80 mark on $NDX/$COMP, didn't think it would make it to those levels this morning.)
2xer, I don't know... It looks like we may retest the lows again, which wouldn't be a bad thing. 5min CCI144 can't get to -100, 3/8dma crossed back down, but the ADX is overheated on the current draft down. So I think ST we may test the lows again, but the CCI-144 will have + divergence. Even if we rally I think it's going to be pretty weak. I just hope they don't try to close the NDX 1850 gap today. That'd be plain crazy, down -85?
(Edit QLD just closed gap on 4/18. QQQQ's gap is not closed yet 45.47.)
I am still long QLD with the bad entry.
Geez... Another good entry. I'm keeping my eyes on you. Yeah I am thinking it bounces sometime today. The divergence I saw on the CCI was negated from the recent lows and the 3/7 sma crossed back down. I am still thinking, gut filling that even if we bounce, the indexes will probably end up closing @ the LoD.
Gleno, 46.05, a penny below your 46.06 QQQQ target. Wow.. $comp -61 for the low so far. Oil is up $3.53! Gold up big. Hmm... I took a QLD 1/4 position earlier. I guess it was a bad entry, down ~$1. Trying to decide what to do next.
Gleno, I got out of QID as well @ 42.87. The HOD a couple days ago. Looks like they are taking the QQQQs down even further. You may be right about QQQQ 46.06 that means $COMP down -60 today?
Be, just bought some QLDs and joined you a few mins ago. I think I need to get another monitor. My 23" LCD isn't big enough.
Be, just out of curiosity, what is your 5min CCI set to? I'm only seeing -220 on CCI period 144 for the 5min. I'm new to the system, and have been reading all of Gloe, Nocona's, and jonr, Little Chico's post. But I thought for the HFE to work you still need to wait for the 3/7 or 3/8 mas to cross and CCI to curl back up to -300 or in my case -200. May be I read it wrong and need to revisit.
Be, I am waiting to go long QLD intraday for a quick scalp. Waiting for the CCI to start curling back up.
Heh... Well may be I should start doing that instead of watching QID and QLD. Watch QQQQ and then trade off of that. Do you do it b/c of the 2x margin/volatility?
BTW these are my thoughts from yesterday night. I think we just reset the daily price charts when QID went to 40.02 on the lower upper price channel. So price objective is ~45 on this next burn. May be we get no 4th of July fireworks and we fizzle instead with some bear claws.
Gleno, do you have any targets? The only one I see so far for QID is 42.87, the last high 2 days ago.
Gleno, LOL, never doubt Scam... Like you said he's one smart dude. Just kidding of course. I saw a bit of divergence on the 5min and 15min charts btw that is why I sneaked in at the close and bought some QIDs.
RIMM/ORCL @ the close. Last post for the day. Man, we basically ended up where we started with the slimjim. The 5min QID chart is starting to look like an inverse H+S. BTW - I snuck in and got some QIDs. Hope I don't get punished tomorrow. The boys seem to have a way of letting you HOPE that you are right, but then they somehow pullout the rug from under you making sure you know who is in control.
Target ~42ish? Good luck all. (Edit After hours QID is spiking higher. Not sure why.)
Gleno, that's my thoughts too. I'm not sure what to make of this Post FOMC announcement. Scam never said what happens if the indexes are mixed. What if the dow is negative and the $COMP and SPX is Positive? Weirdo...
Gleno, from my understanding it is the value at closing. So if we end up/positive (which it appears will happen), even though we are lower in the close than after FOMC announcement @ 14:15 then tomorrow should still be down. Crap! was thinking of entering back @ 40.10 on QID but didn't. Now I am waiting for an entry.
Gleno, I don't think we will get past 50dma, 48.29 on the Daily Qs Chart. If we do, we will violate the down-trend line from 6/5.
I think on the 60min QID, 40.09 (100dma) is going to be decent support. I guess we will find out.
Should've listened to you and myself about the slimjim breaking in the direction of the trend. El Crapo... I was trying to squeeze blood from a rock with my QID trade. But there always is a tomorrow.