SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[learningboutinv]

Foot I just spent the past hour pouring through $NDX back data from Present Day to 1/3/2000. It has only happened 80 times where we've close -4% or more in one day on the $NDX.

It is also a crap shoot whether we close positive the next day. Looking at the stats we had ~53% chance of closing positive and ~47% closing negative. The average gain the next day was about equal. I can't remember the exact number from my spreadsheet but it was something like either an approx -2.5% average down or approx +2.75%. (That is the average gain/loss the next day since 1/3/2000 after a 4% or greater drop in one day.) Anyhow, one thing that I checked was the high of day the following day and there was a bounce in almost all cases from the 4% negative close. Whether it bounces higher or lower into the close is about an equal chance. Anyone has a quarter?

My bet is tomorrow we bounce off the big negative $NDX close from today and then we go lower into the close for another -2 to -3% drop. But I guess we will find out.