SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[learningboutinv]

Foot, I did a look back to 1985 on the $NDX and the last day of the month through an Access database. Anyhow, 59% of the time in June on the last day of the month/end of quarter it was up. 41% down. Not great odds. But I'm in favor of a 1-2 day ST bounce. Pre/Post 4th of July is a crap shoot it's about 50/50 for up or down. Too bad VTOReport is gone. I liked that site a lot, now I have to spend time crunching the numbers myself.

Didn't know this but looking at this forbes magazine article,

The guy who had the VTOReport site:

http://www.forbes.com/best/2001/1203/013_print.html

Vaughn Okumura
Site: www.VTOReport.com
Location: Pearl City, Hawaii

At 36, Vaughn Okumura, CPA, is retired and living in Hawaii. His story is the same as many successful individual investors: a few hard knocks at the start, "visions of losing it all" as a stock account balance was depleted and a final, miraculous recovery. Okumura says his holdings went from $35,000 to $7,000 to $2 million after taxes in a matter of ten years.

He started his site, VTO Report, in 1998 to satisfy his passion for stock investing and to teach others his technical analysis techniques. Fundamentals? "It's like driving forward by looking in the rearview mirror," he says. On the other hand, "the chart of a stock will give you clues as to how a particular company is operating long before it reports its earnings."

"Okumura's most successful strategy outlined on the site is his short-term trades of the Nasdaq 100 index. Up 10% year-to-date and 184% since 1997, the portfolio uses a simple relative strength indicator to determine when the market is overbought and oversold. His site's "smooth" stocks are consistent winners over many years. "Most investors buy stocks in a downtrend thinking they've uncovered a bargain," he cautions. "But in most cases, they end up with a portfolio of clunkers."

BTW here is his rule for anyone interested. Does anyone trade it?

NDX 5-day RSI Buy Signal Strategy
There used to be a site (vtoreport.com) that only bought into the market when a buy signal was triggered as follows:

"Buy the Nasdaq 100 Trust (QQQQ) when the 5-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) closes below 30.0.
Sell the Nasdaq 100 Trust (QQQQ) when the 5-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) closes above 50.0.
The Nasdaq 100 Trust is purchased during after-hours trading on the day the RSI buy signal is generated.
The Nasdaq 100 Trust is sold during after-hours trading on the day the RSI sell signal is generated.
The 5-day RSI strategy has a tendency to underperform the buy-and-hold strategy when the market is strong and outperform when the market is weak.
1997 to 2005 Results: NDX "Buy & Hold"up 76.2%, "5 day RSI" up 349.7%
1997 to 2006 Results: NDX "Buy & Hold"up 108.3%, "5 day RSI" up 381.8% "