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Got some AAPL June 600 calls and AZO June 400 calls. Looking for a big rebound on huge oversold AAPL over the next couple weeks and a solid earnings report on AZO.
450 million shares
It will pop and then gradually head south over the next 30 days. I'll hold my puts for a while and see what the stock does post-earnings.
EPS and revs beat estimates but they still posted a 1Q loss/share of 14c. Raising guidance outlook is the only thing moving this AH. Hopefully the market continues to tank and mitigate this move up so my puts aren't worthless tomorrow :)
Perfect market conditions for a potential CRM collapse if earnings suck AH. Futures sell-off tonight would increase damage overnight into tomorrow. I've got some June 100 puts - let's goooooooooooooooooo
UPB, did you ever take a position in AZO calls? I feel alone in this endeavor! I wish I had waited a bit for the June 400 calls to fall on air - could have added a couple more contracts. Oh well, any significant bounce back toward 400 will net a multi-bagger!
I'm in on CRM 100 puts @ 1.20. I don't think earnings/guidance will reflect what analysts have estimated.
UPB, AZO will rebound IMO. Earnings next week should be what they usually put out. The market is just majorly bearish right now, which is great if you hold puts in affected stocks or are looking for cheaper June calls (like I am!)
Yeah, the last time AZO dropped low, they popped back to the same level. I'm looking for a minimum of $390 before any earnings jump. They should beat expectations again and break the $400 barrier...
I wouldn't go as high as $450 unless it's a truly perfect earnings report. But I've got a few June 400 calls.
Are you playing AZO calls for next week? I think this is a great buying opportunity but I'm still doing some DD.
I've got CRM puts right now and I think the market is favoring a negative earnings report AH tonight. I just think there's more downside risk than upside risk for CRM right now. I'll probably buy some AZO calls here for next week.
According to the VringoIP merger presentation, the next notable date is the joint submission tomorrow. The hearing is getting closer all the time! Go VRNG!
Bought NTES June 65 calls and GTAT June 7.5 calls for earnings. NTES blew out estimates (1.14 against 1.01 avg estimate) so I expect it will open at 60 or above 60 tomorrow morning. GTAT is solar and the solar sector is getting wrecked, but I think GTAT can head toward 7.50 in the coming 30 days. I would say keep NTES on watch tomorrow if it takes off toward 65 tomorrow.
Between the merger, the assets coming in and the potential settlement, the $5.00 calls are a no-brainer IMO. I'm fully loaded on them and intend to hold into August/Sept for the settlement. A decent settlement would yield a PPS of ~$15 IMO. Options players agree - I've been watching 2.5 and 5 calls for a few weeks and they are being steadily loaded. GLTU
I've been watching since it broke MA50 around $580. I was originally going to buy 600 calls or 570 puts, depending on what it did on the MA50. Then I didn't have funds cleared so I couldn't capitalize. The double bottom looks in, though. I will be riding this to Friday - should be very volatile as the week progresses (and even more so Friday). Good luck!
I agree with you - AAPL seems to be on a double bottom and I think it will surge nicely into Friday's FB IPO action. The market has to cooperate obviously, but I think there's a good chance AAPL can reach at least $575.
Anyone playing the Groupon Earning Report AH? Shorts are covering, leading me to believe the Wall Street sharks think GRPN will beat estimates this afternoon. I'm on the fence either way, but it should be volatile nonetheless!
Speed, take a look back through some of my recent KMAG posts. Within the past two weeks, I have correctly identified the last breakout above .012 on 5/1 and I called the share buyback PR the same day (it came out on 5/3). I think I'm right in line with Jeff's thinking here, but it's not an exact science of course. Jeff wants to help us shareholders out, so he might initially drop a PR early next week that gives a specific share buyback #. The Q1 filing will (of course) also have that number, but Jeff wants to reward shareholders and that's why we've seen so much news from him lately. If he didn't give a crap, he wouldn't give us anything more than the major news events. That's why I think we see a PR next week.
As far as the Q1 filing, I read that it was promised this month. Reading into that a bit more, Jeff will probably file it close to the end of the month. I am hoping my string of correct guesses will remain intact through the end of May ;)
The trading here is so obvious. My theory is this:
KMAG wants to buy back as many shares as possible. They have a set amount of cash with which they intend to buy back shares with. Through whatever means necessary, KMAG's PPS slowly declined until the .005 area, where we have since jumped 40% or so. There has been massive loading in the sub .009 range. These are not coincidences IMO, it is KMAG loading. When KMAG announces how many shares they have bought back, you'll see this stock run a bit. And when the 1Q comes out, you will see this most likely run HARD.
What you will see in the coming days is a PR that outlines how many shares were purchased on the open-market. It may also be coupled with a filing that confirms the buyback. Jeff will also likely address when we can expect the 1Q earnings report. My early guess is the final week of May (Wednesday or Thursday).
Don't be discouraged if this declines a bit before Friday's close. Weekly traders want to hold 100% cash over the weekend so there is a natural selloff. We should resume the uptrend Monday and I'm expecting a PR regarding the share buyback sometime by mid-week. KMAG won't load this forever - they're coming up on a week now. That's ample time for the PPS to decrease and for them to load.
It's clear why the PPS has suddenly dropped - Jeff wants to buy back as much stock as he can. It's only a theory at this point but if I was a CEO for a revenue-producing company and I wanted to buy back stock, I would try to buy back as much as possible (which means I would want to buy at the lowest price possible). Once Jeff PRs the total buyback, this will spike back above .01 and once his Q1 numbers are published this month, this thing will really fly IMO.
@ $30, those $45 Puts are looking at $15 tomorrow morning. That's a nice multi-bagger :)
what did you think was going to happen? People would trade on the silence? The company admitted up front that the phases would be boring, but the end result would be glorious. They knew the PPS would decrease on low volume, so that's why they are trying to use social media and emails to keep longs interested. Once their phase II findings come out, this puppy will roar to .05-.10. Until then, collect the cheapies. If this dips to .006, .005, .001, I'm buying MORE.
Jeff has been throwing out so much news, don't be surprised if there's something announced at the bell! I'm personally hoping that they announce a share buyback soon. Depending on what they buy back (a # around 100mil shares), you could see a 30-50% move on that news alone!
Here's the turnaround IMO.
Bounce here should be .04 EOD.
Gonna have to slap the ask if you want this to stay up before merger news! Low volume takedown is all this is.
POP, marked you in return. It was an obvious chart play here. I like the potential of the buyback news, though. We should hear about this shortly. JR has been releasing news almost every day for about a week now. The market has corrected itself from earnings release and we should see another move toward .018 IMO.
Not to toot my own horn, but BOOM. Called it ;)
Should see a sizable run up from here. .02 is not out of the question if the market views Jeff's PR today as a favorable indication that he will buyback shares.
AAPL either bounces off MA50 at $581-582 or it falls below it. I've got AAPL 600 calls/ 570 puts on watch. A bounce/break either way and I will be attempting to enter cheap before the run-up (or down)
No problem! As long as you can read a chart, you'll be fine in the trading world.
That's not 6-1. If you're comparing 15mil buys to 9mil sells, the ratio is 1.66:1.
Ascending triangle forming on the 60min chart. Combined with the positive MACD, there's plenty of room to run on this stock right now. Could see a breakout to .016+ if we can break above .0127.
When is the Q1 filing coming? Has Jeff given us a date?
I tend to agree with you that the mergers/acquisitions will come sooner rather than later. I think he's just hedging against the DD on his end taking longer than expected. That's what I was trying to say in my earlier comment but I guess I didn't accurately portray what I was thinking. I've got time to wait!
I'm not giving advice, I'm just typing out my thoughts. I thought that was what this forum was for? I'm just trying to draw inferences through these filings so I can better understand the CEO's intent. If people are blindly just following the play and hoping to get lucky, they need to get out of trading. I'm still very bullish on this play but I fear that if the news dries up before the end of June, the PPS will decrease on low volume. That will make this board quite unhappy until the merger/acquisition(s) spark that everyone is looking for.
I'm not going to sit here and say WEEEEEEEEEEEE for the next two months, I wanted to bring some thoughts to the board. If you want to see one big PR announcement that gives us one big bang (and followed by one big drop), so be it. I'm hoping the PRs are spread out so at the very least, the PPS is maintained.
To maximize news (and PPS increase), hopefully the merger/acquisitions will be announced individually. If the phrase 'at the end of 2nd quarter' is changed to 'by the 2nd quarter', we might see more speculation on this play. Still, I would expect news anytime. CEO could file PRs regarding signing LOIs, etc, way before end of 2nd quarter.
You know more about this CEO than I do, though. Which is the more likely scenario? I'll try to conduct some additional DD tonight.
Never mind, I got my browser to work! Great filing!
This should enter a mini-technical breakout if someone takes out the 14s. The 60min MACD line is approaching the signal and I painted the last hour to confirm the rising slope. Need a good hour here and maybe we will see it today!
Well I wasn't here in the previous run-up but if we could achieve even half of that, I would be a very happy trader :)
Unless he combines it into one PR because things are progressing so quickly. Typically, I would agree with you. But the CEO here has been very prompt in getting news out regarding the progress he's made after the BK was dismissed.
Which do you think is more likely: a PR giving up the new symbol and effective change date OR a PR outlining a merger/acquisition that the CEO has been hinting at? You were here for the run in 2009 and I was not, but I do think a run is coming.
huge gift at .01 imo :)