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TD Ameritrade tripled my cash available on margin when AMRN hit $4.00 yes trading on margin can be dangerous I learned the hard way with amrn after adcom debacle
EXAS is one of the most heavily shorted bio stocks and it has risen from the 5's to the 30's in 15 months with one product. Institutional ownership will help greatly .. the shorts will provide the squeeze fuel :)
you are correct Herbie .. not specific to AMRN
zip .. it will ramp like a hockey stick once the tier pricing is in place. I think we are sitting on a gold mine my guess is a year from now this board doesn't exist and many of us are much wealthier ...
IMO if there is a 15% mortality benefit this is stopped irrespective of S.E. Don't count on Cramer; your PCP or cardiologist to change much until AMRN or its buyer does a DTC (direct to consumer) campaign and they won't do that until all the private payors are on board with favorable tier pricing .. this won't ramp over night... there will be numerous hit pieces about flaws in the study i.e. mineral oil or anything really; like lack of QC in foreign countries, etc. they will come out of every where to sabotage the real value of vascepa until they get their beaks wet. if amrn goes it alone they will dilute a bit immediately then they will wait until word gets out on the real value and dilute again to pay for the increase in head count and DTC.. just an opinion from someone who has been long this stock a long long time.
Thanks Chris ... yeah I was being lazy I knew it had been discussed
When is the earliest we would know about stoppage at 80%? thanks
insiders sold in the 17's now in the 36's wth????
zum, nice article! hard to change paradigm's ... neat thing about vascepa if reduce -it is successful we can claim trig's which makes the Framingham community comfortable in that its a measureable lipid but we suspect its all about anti inflammation and EPA/AA or along those lines.. who really needs to know why if less people die from CVD notably I think in type 2 subgroup
pank, I was being a smart arse ... people think they know why a ceo unloads shares turns out it was a poor indicator of what was in store for pps
insiders sold in the 17's now in the 29's wth?
BFOST--- more cologuard
now at 24 wth ???
wondering out loud if 80% was more to protect PPS for whatever reason
private payors do it all the time to delay covering a new drug, test or device. But it generally is just a delay until the negative PR forces their coverage decision
found this a.m. maybe old news but I think they are referencing reduce it
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28263852
lol no I've been at this biotech thing for years I just realize what is likely coming regardless of a positive reduce it.
no matter how robust the numbers are there will be hit pieces written by some highly respected cardiologist who will cast doubt on the results; the inert placebo or the credibility of some location that had more favorable results -its all part of the game we play. They can magnify a sub part that seemingly shows no statistical significance comparing vascepa to otc fish oil, etc. If reduce it is moderately successful say anything close to 20% they won't find a safer add on to statin which is our game changer. Matter of fact it may mitigate the muscle soreness or any other adverse effect enabling those who can't tolerate statins to now be able to benefit from a vascepa combo. I've been long since early 10' and added a while back so I expect a higher RRR than I mentioned.
Zip, what I discovered with Exact Science and their Cologuard colon cancer screening test was when they went direct to consumer with TV advertisements the patients drive the education process to the docs. The ramp was a hockey stick formation at that point. My mother in law has been on Vascepa for 2 years now with prior extensive CVD. Anecdotally her lipids are all healthy and most importantly she has avoided 'events' which is the 'miracle' for her. Initially, her cardiologists placated her by telling her vascepa was no different than taking fish oil products OTC. I had educated her enough where she knew the difference and finally got her PCP to prescribe 4 grams a day. If reduce it is successful the TV spots will send type 2 and statin users to their docs and the docs will have no choice other then to get educated. The placebo like safety profile makes it very much less complicated for any doc to give it a try though a successful reduce it will eliminate any hesitation. Obviously, CMS and broad private payor coverage are essential.
bfost lmao am I that obvious :)
good find biochica! most crc takes 10 years to go from a pre to a cancerous condition. with today's molecular diagnostics we now have the ability to detect most crc adenoma's and high grade dysplasia most likely to turn malignant. i'm a fan of prevention whether its the AA/EPA equation or stool dna screening its a fairly avoidable cancer in a the screening population much like what the pap did to cervical cancer. obviously, crc screening begins at 50 in today's medical paradigm soon to change imo
correct it's the education process I was referring to.. coming attractions so to speak
NEJM would be huge! Reps will be passing it out like donuts in the offices
dew , you may not have listened to the call? KC said they expect to be the leader in liquid biopsy in 10 years. 80 million in crc screening market. 70% of those 80 mil now covered. HEDIS and STARS inclusion should shift prescribing behavior. This April, they will reveal a small study on their lung cancer diagnostic including sensitivity and specificity- if exas can eliminate an invasive biopsy on lung nodules I think whether they are profitable in 2018 or 2019 is mute. btw all their diagnostics will use the same platform as CG quarts so no huge capex.
insiders sold in the 17's now in the 22's wth!
thanks sam - so when I look at that data set I can't help but think word is leaking out from the trial that highly purified epa is getting nice results?? pure speculation on my part it could be a combo of insurance formulary and sales reps effectiveness??
But I'm inoculated against capital gains.....
i'm in your line :) I did reload in the 1's I know the compound is excellent obviously we have zero control on the label, etc
I averaged down all the way into the adcom :) life lesson but i'm really stubborn and patient if i'm wrong this time just call me stupid
Zum- more anecdotal support for R-It being positively significant.
JL, Zum does an excellent job of finding this stuff I just stumbled upon it in my readings this a.m. Yes, anecdotal and small sample yet provocative in it's conclusion. Also, I read this a.m. the same thing after SEMI kidney fu. is relatively restored after administration of EPA. My only concern about reduce-it is--- is 4 gm enough? I have no doubt EPA: AA is a game changer. Thanks JL for translating over the years for us non medical types
AA: EPA ratio identified in STEMI
https://www.mdlinx.com/cardiology/medical-news-article/2016/11/29/fatty-acids-myocardial-infarction-nutrition/6942300/?news_id=465&newsdt=112916&utm_source=DailyNL&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_content=General-Article&utm_campaign=article-section&category=latest&page_id=1
As we know people rarely change eating habits, don't exercise and a flip of a coin on the smoking and heavy drinking. Everyone wants the 'magic' pill
so like the majority here i'm trying to figure out the volume of recent. If it is a controlled buy of some sort I guess we will see the 13D when/if it gets to 5%. This stock is the strangest I've ever owned. CV surgeon told me about it in 09' and I have accumulated over the years. The surgeon still owns a significant amount btw. V definitely helps DES I took V for 2 years off label and I noticed my DES was gone, fact
my insurance company healthnet stopped covering vascepa I chose not to pay the 200+ for the monthly script as I was off label taking it as a super vitamin so to speak. I will tell you i'm peeing more in the middle of the night and my eyes are much dryer just my experience after 30+ days into withdrawals
I think the amrn investing world is waiting to hear JT elaborate on the next 18 months. Also, providing more color surrounding yesterday's announcement. Eventually DCF modeling is going to play a role in PPS. Reduce it isn't an absolute binary proposition some key secondary positive outcomes would prove to be very successful for the company
I agree my portfolio is getting hammered not an Amrn event
I've been long since 09' another 8 months is doable for me. This will run at least into the high 4's on another run up scenario at the 80% interim. So I will buy the dips if it isn't stopped this month
I should have said EXAS's offering was at 15.5 today closed 19.5