Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Ha! Ha! The Tekmira Ebola Trade May Already Be Over
http://www.thestreet.com/story/12831845/1/the-tekmira-ebola-trade-may-already-be-over.html
That was $17 ago. Mr know it all Adam obviously doesn't know it all.
I don't feel sorry for the idiots who sold it after listening to Adam.
New 52 week lows for THRX, IMGN, FMI and probably for a whole bunch of other biotechs. Interestingly IBB is still close to 52 week highs with GILD, CELG, BIIB, VRTX etc. all close to 52 week highs. The smaller biotechs have been crushed
Anybody buying any of the above battered biotechs at these levels?
Interestingly enough MNTA is up slightly in the last two days on better than average volume. What is up with that? Not much option activity though -- No spike in it to suggest that somebody anticipates approval soon.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=MNTA+Historical+Prices
Is there any hope for Momenta?
The insider selling is relentless. Looks like nobody there believes in their own company.
http://openinsider.com/search?q=mnta
There seem to be lots of Biotechs with far more potential than this company. Its cash is going to run out soon without Copaxone approval.
Northwest Biotherapeutics and CREW attack Adam Feurestein
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/northwest-biotherapeutics-stock-woes-highlight-the-harm-of-short-sales/2014/09/26/78b99b0a-4507-11e4-b47c-f5889e061e5f_story.html
Northwest Biotherapeutics stock woes highlight the harm of short sales
In late July, CREW’s (A nonprofit advocacy group -- Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington) executive director, Melanie Sloan, asked the Securities and Exchange Commission to investigate market manipulation of Northwest Bio’s stock. (Sloan told me her organization has never been contacted by the company and has no connection to its executives, investors or directors.)
In her letter, Sloan called particular attention to Adam Feuerstein, a biotech reporter whose relentlessly negative blog posts for thestreet.com this year have not only been filled with exaggeration, mischaracterization and half-truths, but curiously have also coincided with the spikes in short trading.
Data from Ongoing Phase 2 Studies of Rucaparib in Ovarian Cancer Demonstrate Safety and Clinical Activity, Validate Differentiated Strategy
http://seekingalpha.com/pr/11149215-data-from-ongoing-phase-2-studies-of-rucaparib-in-ovarian-cancer-demonstrate-safety-and-clinical-activity-validate-differentiated-strategy
-- Encouraging disease control rate of 93 percent, RECIST response rate of 71 percent observed in Phase 2 study of ovarian cancer patients with BRCA mutations; no drug discontinuations due to treatment-related adverse events
-- 56 percent of non-mutant BRCA patients in the ARIEL2 study to date exhibit HRD and may benefit from rucaparib treatment
-- Initial ARIEL2 clinical efficacy data to be presented in oral plenary session at 26th EORTC-NCI-AACR (ENA) Symposium on Molecular Targets and Cancer Therapeutics meeting in November
I would appreciate any opinion on this data by the experts here.
There was a lot of options activity on Friday with the Oct $45 call almost doubling in value (from 0.75 to 1.45) and the Oct $50 call more than doubling in value (from 0.25 to 0.65). The $50 call had volume of 672 contracts. On Friday morning the stock opened at around $40. Hmm! So some people are betting that this stock will go to $50 in 3 weeks? I would love for that to happen.
I am wondering if this data is good enough for that kind of move. Maybe this data along with the fact that AZN 9291 filing won't be until 2nd Half 2015?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=CLVS+Options
Strike Symbol Last Chg Bid Ask Vol Open Int
20.00 CLVS141018C00020000 21.37 0.00 20.20 22.90 1 1
25.00 CLVS141018C00025000 24.00 0.00 15.30 18.00 1 26
30.00 CLVS141018C00030000 14.81 0.00 10.30 13.00 1 7
35.00 CLVS141018C00035000 8.80 0.00 5.60 8.20 44 54
40.00 CLVS141018C00040000 3.70 Up 1.34 3.00 4.30 4 308
45.00 CLVS141018C00045000 1.45 Up 0.70 1.35 1.75 138 1,481
50.00 CLVS141018C00050000 0.65 Up 0.40 0.50 0.70 672 2,963
Date Short Interest Avg Daily Vol Days To Cover
9/15/2014 4,320,356 1,082,876 3.989705
8/29/2014 3,982,219 600,217 6.634632
8/15/2014 3,823,278 636,267 6.008921
7/31/2014 3,967,953 594,550 6.673876
7/15/2014 4,098,159 611,498 6.701835
6/30/2014 3,822,279 681,772 5.606389
6/13/2014 3,319,870 1,955,226 1.697947
5/30/2014 2,755,427 938,225 2.936851
Data from Ongoing Phase 2 Studies of Rucaparib in Ovarian Cancer Demonstrate Safety and Clinical Activity, Validate Differentiated Strategy
http://seekingalpha.com/pr/11149215-data-from-ongoing-phase-2-studies-of-rucaparib-in-ovarian-cancer-demonstrate-safety-and-clinical-activity-validate-differentiated-strategy
-- Encouraging disease control rate of 93 percent, RECIST response rate of 71 percent observed in Phase 2 study of ovarian cancer patients with BRCA mutations; no drug discontinuations due to treatment-related adverse events
-- 56 percent of non-mutant BRCA patients in the ARIEL2 study to date exhibit HRD and may benefit from rucaparib treatment
-- Initial ARIEL2 clinical efficacy data to be presented in oral plenary session at 26th EORTC-NCI-AACR (ENA) Symposium on Molecular Targets and Cancer Therapeutics meeting in November
I would appreciate any opinion on this data by the experts here.
There was a lot of options activity on Friday with the Oct $45 call almost doubling in value (from 0.75 to 1.45) and the Oct $50 call more than doubling in value (from 0.25 to 0.65). The $50 call had volume of 672 contracts. On Friday morning the stock opened at around $40. Hmm! So some people are betting that this stock will go to $50 in 3 weeks? I would love for that to happen.
I am wondering if this data is good enough for that kind of move. Maybe this data along with the fact that AZN 9291 filing won't be until 2nd Half 2015?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=CLVS+Options
Strike Symbol Last Chg Bid Ask Vol Open Int
20.00 CLVS141018C00020000 21.37 0.00 20.20 22.90 1 1
25.00 CLVS141018C00025000 24.00 0.00 15.30 18.00 1 26
30.00 CLVS141018C00030000 14.81 0.00 10.30 13.00 1 7
35.00 CLVS141018C00035000 8.80 0.00 5.60 8.20 44 54
40.00 CLVS141018C00040000 3.70 Up 1.34 3.00 4.30 4 308
45.00 CLVS141018C00045000 1.45 Up 0.70 1.35 1.75 138 1,481
50.00 CLVS141018C00050000 0.65 Up 0.40 0.50 0.70 672 2,963
Date Short Interest Avg Daily Vol Days To Cover
9/15/2014 4,320,356 1,082,876 3.989705
8/29/2014 3,982,219 600,217 6.634632
8/15/2014 3,823,278 636,267 6.008921
7/31/2014 3,967,953 594,550 6.673876
7/15/2014 4,098,159 611,498 6.701835
6/30/2014 3,822,279 681,772 5.606389
6/13/2014 3,319,870 1,955,226 1.697947
5/30/2014 2,755,427 938,225 2.936851
Good news for CLVS as AZN 9291 filing won't be till 2nd Half 2015
http://www.astrazeneca.com/Media/Press-releases/Article/astrazeneca-updates-on-progress-of-oncology-pipeline-at-esmo-2014-congress
Antoine Yver, Head of Oncology, Global Medicines Development, AstraZeneca, said “The updated data we are presenting at the ESMO 2014 Congress reinforce our strategy of moving rapidly into Phase III development with AZD9291 in EGFRm T790M+ advanced non-small cell lung cancer. We have already made significant progress with our accelerated development programme and we anticipate filing for regulatory approval in the US in the second half of 2015.”
----------------------
They had suggested that they would be filing in 1Q 2015 and now they are saying that it will be 2H 2015. CLVS got cut 30-40% when AZN had said that they would file in 1Q 2015 (and also when a big deal was made of the elevated blood sugars in some patients taking CO-1686). See AZN slide "First to Market Strategy" from ASCO
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpKXhFcCIAALGgP.jpg:large
I think CLVS will move up strongly here.
Good news for CLVS as AZN 9291 filing won't be till 2nd Half 2015
http://www.astrazeneca.com/Media/Press-releases/Article/astrazeneca-updates-on-progress-of-oncology-pipeline-at-esmo-2014-congress
Antoine Yver, Head of Oncology, Global Medicines Development, AstraZeneca, said “The updated data we are presenting at the ESMO 2014 Congress reinforce our strategy of moving rapidly into Phase III development with AZD9291 in EGFRm T790M+ advanced non-small cell lung cancer. We have already made significant progress with our accelerated development programme and we anticipate filing for regulatory approval in the US in the second half of 2015.”
----------------------
They had suggested that they would be filing in 1Q 2015 and now they are saying that it will be 2H 2015. CLVS got cut 30-40% when AZN had said that they would file in 1Q 2015 (and also when a big deal was made of the elevated blood sugars in some patients taking CO-1686). See AZN slide "First to Market Strategy" from ASCO
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpKXhFcCIAALGgP.jpg:large
I think CLVS will move up strongly here.
Nebraska Medical Center sending a data binder 3 inches thick to Tekmira
http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2014/09/25/mass-doctor-who-contracted-ebola-ready-for-release-from-nebraska-hospital/6aEJ2Qi5VTgzAFWXq13SBP/story.html
Sacra received a research drug called TKM-Ebola, which inhibits the virus’s ability to replicate, medical officials said. He was also treated with plasma from another Ebola survivor, Dr. Kent Brantly.
LuAnn Larson, clinical research manager at the University of Nebraska Medical Center, administered the drug.
She said researchers stayed up for hours and even days making arrangements upon finding out Sacra would be treated in Nebraska.
“We had a patient who could die,” she said, “so we went through all the right processes. We just went faster.”
Thursday afternoon, Larson was hustling down 42d Street in Omaha, with a binder of data 3 inches thick to send to the drug company. She said administering the drug, through an IV, was an experience that will stick with her forever.
Doctors do not yet know whether a single factor or a combination of approaches helped Sacra survive.
Nebraska Medical Center sending a data binder 3 inches thick to Tekmira
http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2014/09/25/mass-doctor-who-contracted-ebola-ready-for-release-from-nebraska-hospital/6aEJ2Qi5VTgzAFWXq13SBP/story.html
Sacra received a research drug called TKM-Ebola, which inhibits the virus’s ability to replicate, medical officials said. He was also treated with plasma from another Ebola survivor, Dr. Kent Brantly.
LuAnn Larson, clinical research manager at the University of Nebraska Medical Center, administered the drug.
She said researchers stayed up for hours and even days making arrangements upon finding out Sacra would be treated in Nebraska.
“We had a patient who could die,” she said, “so we went through all the right processes. We just went faster.”
Thursday afternoon, Larson was hustling down 42d Street in Omaha, with a binder of data 3 inches thick to send to the drug company. She said administering the drug, through an IV, was an experience that will stick with her forever.
Doctors do not yet know whether a single factor or a combination of approaches helped Sacra survive.
Alan Dworsky reports 5.4% passive stake in Enanta
http://www.theflyonthewall.com/permalinks/entry.php/ENTAid2070989/ENTA-Alan-Dworsky-reports--passive-stake-in-Enanta-
Any way of finding out if he increased his holdings or he is a new buyer?
The float is getting smaller and smaller and there are still 2.4 million shorts. We could have a squeeze soon, I hope
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/enta/short-interest
Alan Dworsky reports 5.4% passive stake in Enanta
http://www.theflyonthewall.com/permalinks/entry.php/ENTAid2070989/ENTA-Alan-Dworsky-reports--passive-stake-in-Enanta-
Any way of finding out if he increased his holdings or he is a new buyer?
The float is getting smaller and smaller and there are still 2.4 million shorts. We could have a squeeze soon, I hope
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/enta/short-interest
ENTA. Is this a new 5% holder?
Anybody has any opinions on today's CLVS ESMO abstract? It was good enough to move it $2
https://twitter.com/DionCapital/status/512225302270181376/photo/1
ARIEL-2 Abstract: Rucaparib ORR 68% in BRCA-wt pts, validates HRD approach
Doug,
Thanks for all your reports on TGTX.
I had sell orders at various levels and a lot of it got executed today
I was not expecting that 25% (at one point) move.
HALO: A total of $771,000 in insider purchases.
http://openinsider.com/search?q=halo
1. David Ramsay (VP, CFO) exercised and held 50,000 shares at 2.05 -- $102,500
2. David Ramsay purchased 25,000 at 8.90 -- $222,500
David Ramsay total purchase: $325,000k
3. Helen Torley (President, CEO) purchased 50,000 at 8.92 -- $446,000
Last time an insider purchase of 100k shares at 6.82 on 8/14/2013 ($681,645) by Director Kathryn Falberg resulted in the stock going from 6.82 to 18.10 on Jan 17th 2014 (see historical prices below)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=HALO&a=07&b=11&c=2013&d=00&e=18&f=2014&g=d
This time we have insiders purchasing $771k of HALO. We also have two approvals in Europe (SC Herceptin, SC Mabthera), and one in the US (SC Hyqvia) since the last run to $18.1. There is no reason why we should not have a similar run in the next 6 months to an year.
The 18 million shorts will propel this next run. (22.5 days to cover)
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/halo/short-interest
PS: This is why I like HALO insiders much better than MNTA insiders who never purchase shares.
http://openinsider.com/search?q=halo
1. David Ramsay (VP, CFO) exercised and held 50,000 shares at 2.05 -- $102,500
2. David Ramsay purchased 25,000 at 8.90 -- $222,500
David Ramsay total purchase: $325,000k
3. Helen Torley (President, CEO) purchased 50,000 at 8.92 -- $446,000
So, a total of $771,000 in insider purchases.
Last time an insider purchase of 100k shares at 6.82 on 8/14/2013 ($681,645) by Director Kathryn Falberg resulted in the stock going from 6.82 to 18.10 on Jan 17th 2014 (see historical prices below)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=HALO&a=07&b=11&c=2013&d=00&e=18&f=2014&g=d
This time we have insiders purchasing $771k of HALO. We also have two approvals in Europe (SC Herceptin, SC Mabthera), and one in the US (SC Hyqvia) since the last run to $18.1. There is no reason why we should not have a similar run in the next 6 months to an year.
The 18 million shorts will propel this next run. (22.5 days to cover)
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/halo/short-interest
THRX. Anybody buying here at 52 week lows?
That is an ugly chart.
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=THRX+Basic+Chart
Apparently the whole Christian Muhr thing could be an elaborate hoax. There is a whole thread on this in Investor Village.
http://www.investorvillage.com/mbthread.asp?mb=11383&nhValue=21701&nmValue=21741&dValue=1&tid=14175383&showall=1
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/31240935-christianmuhr/3256795-christian-muhr-makes-major-move-on-tekmira-pharmaceuticals-nasdaq-tkmr
Christian Muhr Makes Major Move On Tekmira Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:TKMR)
This model has even scarier numbers. 4.5 million infected, 1.2 million dead in 6 months.
http://www.econometricsbysimulation.com/2014/09/12-millions-deaths-by-ebola-projected.html
Black Swan Event: Ebola outbreak
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/12/opinion/what-were-afraid-to-say-about-ebola.html?_r=1
What We’re Afraid to Say About Ebola
FDA Approves Baxter’s HYQVIA for Treatment of Adults with Primary Immunodeficiency
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fda-approves-baxter-hyqvia-treatment-230200320.html
%^$#@ Adam F!
He just messed it up for a lot of people. Why does he feel the need to meddle with everything? His tweet caused the stock to drop from 31.50 earlier this week to 26.5 yesterday.
New Ohad Hammer blog entry on FMI
Foundation Medicine – Emerging competition does not impact long-term value proposition
http://www.orf-blog.com/foundation-medicine-emerging-competition-does-not-impact-long-term-value-proposition/
Ebola Could Reach the U.S. By the End of This Month
http://news.yahoo.com/ebola-could-reach-u-end-month-215517951.html
Obama says that Ebola is a national security Threat
http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/obama-chuck-ebola-threat-n197631
WHO document listing all experimental therapies (TKMR seems to be the most advanced)
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/ebola-new-interventions-02-sep-2014.pdf
Sarepta starting new human trials for AVI 7537
http://news.yahoo.com/drug-vaccine-makers-race-against-ebola-160132856--finance.html
Pfizer granted orphan status for sickle cell disease drug
http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/opdlisting/oopd/OOPD_Results_2.cfm?Index_Number=440514
Looks like Bluebird's sickle cell drug got orphan status in Feb 2014
http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/opdlisting/oopd/OOPD_Results_2.cfm?Index_Number=420413
Tekmira takeover rumors in the Daily Mail.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-2735978/MARKET-REPORT-Tekmira-high-takeover-tonic-healthcare-sector.html
Takeover Rumors at $40+; 4 Companies interested
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-2735978/MARKET-REPORT-Tekmira-high-takeover-tonic-healthcare-sector.html
Looks like Ohad added more FMI to his portfolio. (8/24)
http://www.orf-blog.com/the-aml-pipeline-new-approaches-starting-to-bear-fruit/
Ebola: research team says migrating fruit bats responsible for outbreak
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/aug/23/ebola-outbreak-blamed-on-fruit-bats-africa
A toddler's chance encounter with one infected bat in Guinea led to west Africa's present epidemic
Why did Emory / CDC release Dr. Brantley and Mrs. WriteBol in a period less than 21 days? (less than one incubation period)
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/resources/outbreaks.html
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2014/07/daily-chart-22
Outbreaks are only considered to be over after 42 days (twice the maximum incubation period) without any new confirmed cases
NewsDiffs tracks post-publication changes to articles -- Reference to only 44 doses of TKM-Ebola available removed
http://newsdiffs.org/diff/651696/651754/www.nytimes.com/2014/08/21/business/drug-used-for-ebola-related-virus-shows-promise.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/21/business/drug-used-for-ebola-related-virus-shows-promise.html
Here is the removed line:
FMI will probably be down today on this ILMN news.
www.forbes.com/sites/matthewherper/2014/08/21/illumina-partners-with-big-pharmato-create-new-genetic-tests-for-cancer/?partner=yahootix
Illumina Partners With Big PharmaTo Create New Genetic Tests For Cancer
Illumina, the leading maker of DNA sequencing equipment, is partnering with Sanofi, AstraZeneca, and Johnson & Johnson to create a test for more mutations in dozens of genes that will be used first in clinical trials and, eventually, to help decide which patient should get which marketed drug.
...
“The goal is that everyone will use a universal panel,” Klausner told me. This appears to be a step in that direction. Illumina says in its press release that the new test will look at at least 125 known cancer-causing genes. The test will run on MiSeqDx, the only next-generation DNA sequencing machine approved by the Food and Drug Administration. That could put Illumina in partial competition with some of its customers, like Foundation Medicine, which offers DNA sequencing tests for choosing cancer drugs, although Klausner told me he foresees technologies like Foundation’s being used for more complex analyses or more complicated cases. “I think there is plenty of room,” Klausner says.
While the situation is unprecedented & tragic, no significant revenue potential for Tekmira for Ebola. Probably more of a distraction from other pipeline programs they have.
No true. Probably not immediately. However, the chances of DOD stockpiling TKM-Ebola has gone up considerably. That could bring in annual revenues north of $100 million / year.
There was a Washington Post article about how the US govt is worried about terrorist groups like Boka Haram weaponizing Ebola.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/08/05/why-ebola-worries-defense-department/
News for SRPT / TKMR
1. The WHO has decided that it was ok to use untested drugs for treatment of Ebola. So SRPT and TKMR are both still in play.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-28754160
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2014/ebola-ethical-review-summary/en/
2. Washington Post / Bloomberg is reporting that the president of Sierra Leone has approached Tekmira
http://washpost.bloomberg.com/Story?docId=1376-NA5USR6TTDTO01-5KFGO9MEHI84679QME53BKJFN6
The CEO of Whole Foods was bashing a company (that they eventually bought) on the Yahoo message boards -- 1100 posts on YMB over a 7 year period.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/12/business/12foods.html?_r=0
The CEO is still there and Whole Foods is still doing well.
As I indicated earlier, Adam was wrong twice. First he implied at 15+ TKMR was done and that it would not go higher on the Ebola hype.
Then he compounded that by indicating Sarepta should focus on just DMD. SRPT is up from 19.9 to 22.8 in the last couple of days. The SRPT shorts are seeing what could happen if they are caught on the wrong side of the Ebola trade.
Will he be man-enough to admit his mistake or will he take more pot shots at SRPT?
He comments about RTRX's Martin's inappropriate tweets. What about his own over the top ridiculous tweets? Just because he is a so-called journalist is he allowed to make ridiculous comments?
I am glad I loaded up on both on the dips. However, I am still annoyed that this person has so much clout.