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Magdelina
If only I could be so prescient - Q2 2007 seems very plausible to me based on public information. I'd be concerned if it didn't happen by Q3 2007. Anything earlier would be because one or more of the irons turned red hot but I certainly can't predict such events with any certainty. I also wouldn't be surprised either especially if Microsoft actually releases Vista for enterprises later this year.
trust
I assume IBM /Lenova sold some and wave is not there. Same for Toshiba and the other Infineon 1.1 customers. HP must have sold something and they weren't there either. But I would think a lot of 1.1s were sold in 2006. The action will be as 1.2s are sold.
Ramsey
When I connected, Wave did not come up with a live web link on the schedule page (about 1/2 did). Is this unique to me?
Kev
As has been posted, stock options now must be expensed under Fas 123(R) starting this year. Previously there wass no requirment although pro forma calculations were required. I am not sure at what level of discount a discounted employee stock purchase plan needs to be expense. I initially assumed the expesne was from the options but maybe a piece is from the discounted plan.
As you know, options are quite common especially for a hi tech company. And if you've been reading lately subject to even more abuse than I thought (and I consult in this area). The discounted purchase paln is also fairly common although I would question the cost/benefit of it for an employer.
tkc
maybe 2 & 3. Almost all laptops to enterpirses might be high. The Wave mix is fully dependent on which laptops got sold during this very specific quarter. There is huge leverage in the number. But without details on the product sales, we'll just find out after the close. Certainly your number could be fine and would tie in to a 600 to 800K total revenue for the quarter.
Micro
I think all we can derive from the Q2 results are: a sign that dell and gateway are indeed shipping computers with Wave software ( to date that has not been shown) and perhaps some other source of revenue that shows the development and promise of new channels that we haven't really focused on. Other than that, it may provide some data points for our mathemeticians to more fully develop the shape of their hockey stick.
(It could also refigure a Dudash chart)
Micro
If I'm not mistaken, Dell began selling their new laptops with TPMs beginning in April. How many laptops that have TPMs do you think they sold in this 3 month period recognizing that Wave earns around 50 cents for each sale. In the absence of a major set of upgrade orders (not been implied yet), I don't see where the big numbers come from. I think the volume of TPM sales and the likelihood of increasing upgrade orders is starting now (not Q2). Gateway started even later so they will start appearing in Q3.
orda
yes they have but the outcome is still an unknown despite years of hopeful specualtion. over the course of time, Wave has provided IP to the effort and so far I wouldn't say that Micorosoft has stolen anything. If they introduced their own key management system in direct competition with Wave, then that would be different. But if the collaboration is to allow their OS and applications to work well with TPMs and Wave can supply the 3rd party software to manage keys effectively and tie in with other types of connected devices, then I'd say all parties win and we are happy with the results.
Bitlocker
We'll all be very interested to see how Wave publicizes their product capabilities with respect to Bitlocker. It would seem between Seagate FDE and Bitlocker that there will be a huge amount of enterprise interest with respect to encryping sensitive files and there will be a lot of discussion of managing the keys. So far Wave and Seagate are tied closely together and we have some picture as to how this might evolve over the next quarters; it would be great to see some evidence of what Wave and Microsoft have been collaborating on forever. If we are seeking a high profile PR, there is certainly some ingredients here.
IBM
This would be news to me? And IBM doesn't sell PCs anymore?
Additionally, TPM implementation is not standard across vendors: IBM and HP use different chips, although this will change when IBM completes its move to Infineon Technologies' device," he says.
New wave
That philosophy (which can be taken to an extreme) also explains some of his complacence to remain below the radar and not highlight their potential until more real estate could be secured. I don't think they are following that path today as share price and financing have become ever more important but certainly they have made decisions of what to invest in and not invest in with that underlying philosophy.
As an aside, Wave has been pretty consistent that Q3 is the time where we should see meaningful revenue changes starting to emerge and as much as we want it to be earlier, that is not what he has intimated for a pretty long while. I however would lose all patience if these current forecasts turn out to be untrue. At that point unfortunately, there would be no money to rescue.
Cosmo
Oh I'm not talking about those investors although I think they should have acted earlier if the RS is the catalyst for their concern. I am referring to those who are (and have been) focused on driving the stock down for their or their employers financial gain. I think there are some of those sprinkled in the mix - don't you?
cosmo
I think your comment is premature. With the way trading is unfolding, one cannot reach any conclusions. Also it isn't surprising that the first sales were down as I would expect the evil ones to test the resilency of the stock. It will become clearer this afternoon - could end up or down then.
homeslicer
If Wave announces a financing deal for $10 million or so, I think that would immediately increase the market cap by 20%. Thus I wonder if that is an intended cushion in the very short term as selling pressure occurs on day 1. Obviously more is needed to sustain the level but that may be a source of a quick defense.
twinki
You either believe or don't believe that they need to do this to remain listed on the main market and that the potential investors strongly prefer it remain on this market and that Wave needs $10 million or so for financing purposes. You are correct that the higher price becomes a target for aggressive shorting and that positive results are the only way to defend the share price. But not doing the RS will trigger a set a events and from the outside I can't judge whether the cost of being removed to the other market is less onerous than doing the RS and dealing with subsequent events.
Kev
Clearly these forecasts were off. The TCG comment held true. As you probably know NEC changed strategic direction and just yesterday announced they were selling their European computer unit and you know that Finread never could generate sufficient investment by the Banks.
I think the design win comment and revenue jsut didn't happen. Whether you notch it up to insincerety or to misleading or inaccurate estimates from the OEMs is your call. If you note over the past year +, SKS has refused to be predictive and has commented multiple times on how he wants to see if OEM projections pan out before he will rely on them for guidance having been burned several times before.
Its for these reasons that the stock is at .70 and 10.70. If every investor concluded that the apparent traction is going to result in revenue, the revenue would be quite large. Most are simply waiting to see the dollars in the Treasury. However unlike earlier, even you woul dhave to agree there is much more documented evididence of deployment and public knowledge of partners. Whehter the outcome is different is why we all stay tuned to this show.
Matt - I agree.
Managing these boards and satisfying all constituencies on a consistent basis is virtually impossible and thankless.
AWK/others
I have no allegiance to any board and certainly as a free member the ads here are problematic. I don't know where you can go or do to produce the open, yet moderated environment we seek with reasonable access and functionality.
I just think that any board we may go to has to allow a certain degree of back and forth and a range of opinions being expressed as well as all the factual due diligence that is generated. I think most people would agree with those parameters but the devil is in the details.
One distinction I can see is that even if folks get too positive or negative or argue back and forth, they tend to limit their posts so it doesn't get out of hand. That seems to me to be the issue if someone epxresses themselves and then continues to do it again and again especially trying to engage in further conversations. While some can ignore people , many can't and some may not understand how this game is being played.
It is certainly plausible that we will see lots of new posters since the stakes are heating up again. There's the obvious NASDAQ issue and on the other side increasing evidence that Wave has captured precious strategic space in the trusted computing rollout.
Zen
The internet contains all sorts of information and sometimes you learn things from the most surprising of places. It is possible that something of intelligence and insight could be posted there - it is not illegal and no one there can delete quality content. But I do agree that in general the posts are not that helpful. They mainly consist of the same people talking to themselves and convincing themselves that we are idiots and they know all the truth. While we do become repititious on this board from time to time, there is a steady stream of new information and insights here that is unequalled and that is almost always lacking on Yahoo.
AWK
It is as if all the possible competitors didn't think this trusted ecosystem based on open standards would ever happen and thus Wave, with really no other choice, bet all the marbles that this would be the path to win on.
Almost every company is created on the basis of their proprietary product and they do everything in the world to preserve it. It is this underlying theme that Wave apparently has leveraged into an advantage which is quite frankly a little difficult to believe.
As has often been said, you have to be at the right place at the right time. Our advantage is that we've been waiting alone through several product cycles picking up freinds and acquaintances along the way. Despite their history, Wave does get credit form most as being one of the founders and believers in this paradigm with unquestionable intellectual capital. It is this aspect that the Yahoo posters are unwilling to consider. And even as Dell is walking the talk, they think the entire relationship is "supposed or alleged or illusory".
unclever
Either way it bodes well as they will become our customers.
Vader
The 10 million covers a full year (breakeven a year from now but funds to the summer) offset by known revenue. It is still non zero if they reach breakeven at years end so financing at some level and in some manner appears very very likely. If it is to be while on NASDAQ to get at market pricing, then that would be a driver to stay on it. I agree about the sales people. I hardly think adding some addtional people on a monthly salary to sell if there are customers would be problematic at the numbers discussed.
Although I was not in the room, you can certainly infer that more licensing deals and maybe even signed purchase contracts wasn't sufficient of a plan to get over $1. Given Wave's history and the uncertainty of just what will cause the share price to escalate, the panel could be quite vanilla about this.
As to substance, the Dell positioning was new. There was more clarity and specifics around the government. The carve out of the other companies and the discussion of Seagate licensing although certainly speculated but never on record. And yes there was the succinctness of the presentation.
Weby
On the the really positive side, whenever he gives his speech now, the issues and the partners and the availability of product are very compelling and no longer speculative. And with the large number of unprotected sources subject to theft, I think the stories will keep coming and from time to time there will be really outrageous ones.
DAME23
I think you ably and fully expressed all the reasons that Wave could not possibly succeed as abusiness and as an investment. On the other side are the facts that Dell, Gateway, Intel, STM , Winbond, and Broadcom have all entered into multiple and expanding licensing deals with Wave to do what you say no one would ever do. In addition we have the publically revealed collaborations with Seagate and NTT and DOD plus all that other stuff. It is true that for many years Wave did not get traction but it is also true that the foundation of their success is now becoming an industry standard supported by just about everybody all in the past couple of years. And the public and Congress who didn't give a hoot about security, identity theft, phishing etc. until recently now would probably support public castration and mutiliation of an infractor.
So does the past baggage outweigh the current and future opportunity? That is the simple question. Feel free to short the heck out of this.
Ramsey
I am assuming that we will see FDE drives from other hard drive vendors. If Wave can support those and have licensing deals,it will strenghten the arguements for HP and others to go along. I truly don't know what the issues are with HP but there has to something that has kept them in the Infineon camp as long as they have been.
Fullmoon
I agree this was far and away the best call in the sense of what is expected to occur over the next year or so. The opaqueness is gone. SKS certainly went further than before in certain areas relating to revenue, opportunity, named customers, work in progress etc. The comments about their role with Dell was stronger than I knew about and the angle about smart cards and biometric devices was a positive. It's been my understanding that a number of seagate wanabees have conferred with Wave as well and the Seagate opportunity is clear and starting shortly.
The noting of Sony, NEC, Fujitsui was more explicit than before but there the situation is still open to some uncertainty.
I think his final comments are worth considering. Many of the hugely successful technology companies started with some ideas and some excellent/lucky timing in that their product and market need came together and before there were multiple options out there. Now with Wave, I think about it a bit differently. Their ideas and some form of product has been there a very long time but the timing and market forces simply weren't there to carry it forward. By some form of miracle, they remained available and the market started to form. In the last year the level of pain from security breaches actually crossed the tipping point and no company is going to have security implementations that would be deemed insecure as the monetary and reputational risks would dwarf the cost of meeting the standards. And finally Wave is there with some key products to make it happen.
P.S. And this discussion doesn't even capture the next stages of services in a trusted environment.
X-point
There is one addiitonal explanation. Microsoft has grown increasingly incompetent at delivering quality software and with the increasing complexity of their OS, the ability to make major changes may not be possible. Thus even with the best of intnentions, they failed had to scale back a lot and even now are being challenged to deliver something two years late.
Wavx
Although I realize that Wave's current existence is due in part to a loyal shareholder foundation, it is really non sensible to think that management is going to release deep details into their thinking, business plan, financial strategy etc. They've provided a basis and sure there are some items that could be debated. But I would never wnat them to display all the details and roadmap. I doubt anybody really does either but there are so many posts that seem to think that they are obligated to do so. The competition or the shorts or whatever would use that same roadmap to try to destroy them.
waverider
I suspect the timing and the idea of a special meeting after the regular meeting, is all about saving money, reprinting costs, mailings etc. So I would expect the second part to be done economically and separately so the main materials could be sent as planned.
AWK
You can see why SKS is fairly sure about reaching breakeven by mid 2007 and why before then is an open question depending on enterprise activiations, FDE take up etc.
The updating of the licensing contracts (bad with NSM before and great now with Winbond, Dell and STM) seems like a clear beacon as to the selling expectations of these companies and the direct impact on Wave.
We've had so many delays and dashed expectations that is tough to be assured of anything but this set of public information and the unbeleivable cascade of last data is making it seem inevitable and in our lifetime.
gowave
Why? Is it difficult to believe that major companies control how and when their names are put in public notices with other companies? I've seen it with my own business and have seen it with other companies. Brand control is a key matter for companies.
Now the other arguement that no company would want to be shown as working or relying on Wave is a different take. While I can understand that perspective, I would think that the Dell marketing presentations with Wave listed in prominent places disputes that perspective. It's just that Dell is doing the positioning/ not Wave.
Does your experience working with Fortune 1000 Global companies suggest something very different? How, I'd be interested in understanding the basis for your conjecture.
gowave1
The one obvious answer is that some or all of these companies did not want Wave to PR the arrangement. It's reasonable to me to believe they want to control their brand messages and Wave is not of the level to have them feel a PR with Wave will elevate their brand recognition. that's not a knock on Wave but the reality of their position relative to these gorillas.
I would point out that within Dell's marketing materials and communication to customers, Wave was promoted and allowed a lot of limelight so a comment that no one wants to be associated with Wave is not supportable.
And I think we all agree that more explicit dollars and cents needs to be part of th eannouncement. With no minimum or maximums, pricing or forward statement as to units, that connection is much more specualative.
willem
You can take credit that you suggested that a RS would be considered. However the other comments are not accurate. There have not been puff PR's, they have not provided placements at 20 to 30% discount, they are not seeking 1 to 8 or 1 to 10 splits. So I'm thinking that even a blind squirrel can find a nut sometimes or maybe a broken clock is right two times a day.
24601
Didn't know that. So the company would need to also amend the authorization level to reduce it. It's not part of this proposal?
Dig
The need for additional funding was reasonably clear unless Q3 and Q4 stepped up materially. As of now, Q4 revenues would still be somewhat opaque. Thus the thinking about financing and making decisions now shouldn't be tied to wishful thinking. We've had enough of that from the previous financing decsions. I agree it says that they are not selling upgrades like hotcakes at the moment. But we sorta knew that already.
wavx
A good investment is probably the credit monitoring companies. At this rate, every citizen will be provided with coverage by multiple vendors who lost their private information. Soon there will be a forensics business trying to figure out which data file the loss was due to since I'm sure we all appear in multiple databases.
waverider
Not likely. The institutional investors will like this decision if and only if Wave does stay on the national market and Wave delivers results so that they feel comfortable buying in. The only people who like the RS decision are the shorts; however they would probably equally like a change to the capital market as well. Anything to leverage as a negative result.
Oh and Bluefang who is growing old and wants Wave's eulogy as a testament to his writing skills and his path into heaven.
wildman
You are correct that this is primarily an emotional discussion, especially becuase many didn't expect it. The RS itself is a means to an end. The shorts would prefer that there is panic so that they can drive the price down. This is a good time to try to do that.
If Wave didn't offer a plan and they were place in the capital market, the same folks would say this is the end.
scorpio
I'm glad you made the point. It is a nice notion to think that management of any company will convey all their thinking, threats and opportunties out for everyone to see, but that doesn't happen in the real world. Doesn't even happen in my company and its private and I'm a partner. Never mind a public company who would explain this to competitors, partners, sharks etc.
There is room for improvement and it will be important for them to support this proposal as the weeks go by. But there is a limit on what level of communication should be provided.
wavxmaster
I agree that Wave has become extremely cautious in their dealings and its most probable the law suits and the overall focus in the market on proper dealing are the reasons. I do however have trouble with the purported reasons the board doesn't buy shares. If you consider the news flow and the share impact over the past two years, I just don't believe they were advised to effectively never buy. When would news not be forthcoming? I'd better believe they don't have the financial resources to purchase a meaningful amount.
As for other insiders, I do believe that their options, ownership and effective dependence on the company for their salary makes it reasonable for them to not purchase any shares on the open market.