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Okay, here goes...
Between 3:02 & 3:17pm today, I sold all stock held in MSFT, AKS, F, GE, TWTC, & AA. (My GE sold @ @16.95.. you got me on that one!) In the mix, I'm up 6-14% depending on most stocks but I took a royal bath on Ford. I see some folks (Nick & Richard) are battling for position on the Imperial Bath, but I'll stick with the Royal Bath... it has bubbles... (LOL! No pun intended!! )
I've said before that I think Jan/Feb timeframe will be brutal... thus my latest moves. Frankly, I don't care if I'm right or wrong, but I'm putting my money somewhere outside of the Royal & Imperial Bath area. I just want to be there when they drain the tub....
Gaaaads, I am soooo bad today! I called up JW & told him that a rally on this all-but-nothing volume meant that no one was at work today. Maybe they'll show up on Monday? And, if they do show up on Monday, will they be in a bad mood?
Actually, the Year-Over-Year comparison of their Christmas Gifts will probably depress them....
And YES... I do think that they'll do YOY charts on their presents!!! Nothing else to do, no?
Eric (SantaFe) or Mike (Dimension) publish some great charts here. I hope they can whip one up for you & post it for us to see as that is a good question.
Just thought I'd tell you that I think the dollar will hold until mid-year & then it will (most probably) go downhill thereafter. There is great published argument for that to be the case from some very knowledgable writers.
Here's a sample of the pessimism (see link below). A contrarian's view is that as long as pessimism is vocal & published, the stock will be depressed & could possibly be a buy. That's not to say that the pessimism is not valid, it's to say that pessimism can (and sometimes does) keep stock appreciation from happening even in the face of turnaround. I'm sure you are savvy to that fact, but it allows for great thinkers to make a move far earlier than the crowd.
Listen to this guy. He reeks of pessimism. And, when the good news comes..... hruummphh... those holding the stock ALREADY will get the greatest price appreciation. Because they have suspended their dividend, it will take price appreciation to keep investors around. That's why I wanted you to watch the institutional ownership.
Updating the electrical grid is in our very near future. It will not, IMHO, cause the upward move that China (which built at a level of a "Dallas, Texas every month"). That copper use was mandated by government in that the relocations of millions for the dam project CAUSED the mandated demand for building & relocation. It was just a matter of filling the demand and, well, alot of people got rich... from miners, to processors, to shippers, to investors. Copper has NEVER had such a sustained upward movement in over 200 years of copper price tracking as it had these past 5 years. I have been in the metals industry for nearly 25 years & I'm speaking from absolute experience. The China mandate is now over: the damn is built, the millions are relocated, and the Olympics are over. Copper plunges. And, the previous overseas copper shipments have grinded to a halt.
The day the Olympics closed, every natural resource previously inhaled by China stopped. No surprise: No mandate. And the folks who were previously getting rich also saw the "rich" dwindle. There is, and will be, fallout.
Now, China wants a stimulus plan of 500 Billion. That's peanuts compared to previous demand. It's not enough to gear up an enlarged industry. Couple that with American stimulus, (electrical grid upgrade), and voila! mandated demand reappears.
It's obvious that I believe the fortunes for copper since 2003 have come at the heals of mandates or from the speculation funded by debt. Those two things opened the doors for the big speculators & profiteers.
For copper to rev (sp) back up, a mandate will have to be lurking (debt is a no-no now). It's a matter of 'who will make it through this severe recession'. FCX looks pretty strong & might be a survivor. If you buy the stock at pennies on the previous dollar, I just don't think you will lose. The key is to get it cheap, cheap, cheap.... & that means BELOW it's published 52-week low. For that to happen, you must keep your powder dry. Better yet, put a ridiculously low GTC order in @ $15.60 with just a few shares & see what happens. It could be that you can cancel the GTC & bid 'live' & get it cheaper. (just some tactics from Mrs. Scrooge).
Oh yeah... here's the guy with the pessimism: http://video.msn.com/?mkt=en-us&brand=money&vid=e805e4c1-33ad-4647-9742-c673cf63926a&playlist=videoByTag:tag:money_top_investing:ns:MSNmoney_Gallery:mk:us:vs:1&from=MSNmoney_ticker&tab=s216
Can I chime in on this one?
Cash until the price hits a low in the next few months.
Then, of the two you mentioned, I like FCX better than ETF because I understand it better.
I think you have a jewel in a jungle with FCX but timing will be most important. The institutional ownership ( nice names ) as of 9/30 are solid & so is the mutual fund ownership. If you wait through the updated fund/institutional ownership reporting of 12/31 (which can be in Feb/Mar), then you can see who bailed out in the horrid Oct/Nov period. This will give you further indication of who thinks this is STILL a solid investment as well as provide you with free-market volitility going forward (as such a large institutional & mutual fund ownership should provide more price stability... I obviously believe that other market forces hammered at this stock)
If there are few bailouts, then you will have a solid reason to bet as the big boys bet. Additionally, with (what I believe will be a massive copper demand in building out the electical grid going forward), this might be a great bet if you get in early.
JMHO
Thinking that the next few days would be like my past two weeks, I was worried that I wouldn't get here in time to wish you good cheer...
I have no doubt that each of you carry the holiday spirit within you & (for that) we have a great bunch of folks here.
I feel that you all have given me the best present of all... your time, your thoughts, & your guidance. Don't ever believe that it goes unnoticed or unappreciated.
Bless you all... I hope that your families are healthy, wealthy, and wise...
With that, (and it appears that this is the tenth year that I have posted this wish).. Merry Christmas!
I will be (once again) carrying my Jacque & Koch for however long I can hold the glass (lol!)
Let's shoot for that 11th year!
Dianne, Richard, & Elroy:
Here's a good link on the matter
http://seekingalpha.com/article/110350-more-on-capital-gains-and-leveraged-etfs
Nick: The saying is "so goes the first xxxx trading days of January & 'so goes the year'". Is the "number of days" the first four trading days? Here's the Dow:
Date.... Open..... High.... Low.... Close... Volume..... Adj Close*
10-Jan-08 12,733.11 12,931.29 12,632.15 12,853.09 5,170,490,000 12,853.09
09-Jan-08 12,590.21 12,814.97 12,431.53 12,735.31 5,351,030,000 12,735.31
08-Jan-08 12,820.90 12,998.11 12,511.03 12,589.07 4,705,390,000 12,589.07
07-Jan-08 12,801.15 12,984.95 12,640.44 12,827.49 4,221,260,000 12,827.49
04-Jan-08 13,046.56 13,049.65 12,740.51 12,800.18 4,166,000,000 12,800.18
03-Jan-08 13,044.12 13,197.43 12,968.44 13,056.72 3,429,500,000 13,056.72
02-Jan-08 13,261.82 13,338.23 12,969.42 13,043.96 3,452,650,000 13,043.96
This socialist (LOL!) solved the problems of the universe sitting atop the cliffs overlooking the ocean & Catalina island. Whatever was solved (then) made me the first of my family to leave the soon-to-be overpopulated, over-opinionated, over-paid, over-materialistic, over-taxed, artificial environment of a once laden-with-promise area which was home to incredibly hard working, successful people.
Additionally, The People's committee didn't like all the horses or their little horse piles either. Too much aroma (septic/horses) when the breezes ceased.
Perfect people making a perfect world in an ever-changing natural environment. When Marineland left, it was the first sign.... ...
But alas, the bottom 2 photos are Home,Toto, Home....
http://www.palosverdes.com/rpv/news/content/Visual_Tour_of_the_Peninsula.cfm
Oh, this is just tooooooo pointed. Collective farms & socialists.... what next?
There is ample adobe barriers that seal household septic from penetration. In fact, there is soooooo much adobe, that most septic tanks are pumped. When Portugese Bend & areas on the coast side had hardly ANY inhabitants (and land was falling into the ocean), septic systems were non-existant in relation to the land available in the area.
That land has always sought ocean level & continues to drop into the ocean. No matter how deep the pilings (for footers) go, it's just piercing various unstable layers of beach. One of these days, we're going to see a cliff dropoff and a home standing 125 feet (on pilars) in the air.
This is hogwash.
Palos Verdes has historical geology (over 100 years of research) that validates the hill to be composed of 13 separate beaches... and that the land has been RISING for thousands of years. Grab any geology book around.
Those 13 beach terraces are composed of a great deal of shale. The possibility that the beachfronts, once saturated with water, can slide off into the ocean are very high.
There is NO reason that Trump should have any geology/engineering cost. The Palos Verdes area should have more geology reports on file than any other area of the coast. The strata, composition, etc. are all a matter of record.
The bottom line is that no one wants to get sued. You can study a piece of surface land there 'til the cows come home, but the problem lies in the 13 terraced beachfronts underneath it.
JMHO
If anyone is interested, I have an opinion about gold coins.
The one oz St.Gaudin's coin is 22K & I can't find the purity (but I do NOT think it is .9999)
The one oz Buffalo coin is 24K, .9999 pure. It's the highest gold content coin ever minted in the USA (first mint: 2006). With gold moving, this coin is selling less than $100 over price this am. Not sure of Gold's direction, but the closer it gets to the sales price of the coin, the quicker the US Mint moves up the price. Just thought you might like to research the Buffalo coin...
http://catalog.usmint.gov/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/ProductDisplay?catalogId=10001&storeId=10001&productId=14399&langId=-1&parent_category_rn=14239
"My,My" said the spider to the fly...
On another note, remember meeting Charles? He sent this today & I thought you all might appreciate his email since we have not heard from him on the boards for sooooooo long:
Here goes....
Back in 1990, the U.S. Government seized the infamous Mustang Ranch Brothel in Nevada for tax evasion and, as required by law, tried to run it.
They failed and it closed.
Now, we are asked to trust the health of the automotive industry, the viability of the banking industry, the economy of our country and 750 Billion Dollars to a pack of bureaucrats who couldn't make money running a
whore house and selling booze.
If that doesn't make us nervous, what will ?
"When they call the roll in the Senate, the senators do not know whether to answer 'present' or 'guilty'." --Theodore Roosevelt
Court hasn't posted... he might be in the thick of this ice storm. I certainly am hoping the best for him, his family & his business....
December 12, 2008
CONCORD, N.H. — An ice storm to compare with some of the Northeast's worst made a mess of the region Friday, leaving 1.25 million homes and businesses in seven states without power as it forced schools to close and toppled ice-laden trees and power lines onto slippery roads.
More than half of New Hampshire's homes and businesses lost power, and it was expected to take several days to completely restore electricity there and in other states. The storm wreaked havoc from Maine to Pennsylvania, leaving a sparkling, ice-covered landscape that was too destructive for many to find beautiful.
"This is pathetic," said Bob Cott of Portland, Maine, who lost power. "I'm already sick of winter and we have nine days to go before it officially begins."
At least one death was related to the storm: New Hampshire officials said a 49-year-old Danville man who lived in a camper died of carbon monoxide poisoning after turning on his generator when his power went out Thursday night.
For New Hampshire, the power outages dwarfed those during the infamous Ice Storm of '98, when some residents spent more than a week in the dark.
In Hampstead, N.H., Mark Cegelis, 36, said things were hectic at his neighborhood gas station, which was jammed with people trying to get gas for home generators.
"It's kind of lawless out there right now," he said. "There's a lot of people very frustrated stacking up at the gas stations. It's pretty ugly."
He bought 21 gallons for himself and tried to deliver some to friends in Derry but couldn't get there because downed trees blocked roads. So the two friends came to him instead, and were expected to hunker down with Cegelis' family, his parents and another friend until power was restored.
"I'm sure they'd do the same thing for us," he said. "It's treacherous out there."
Nearly two dozen shelters were set up across the southern part of the state, and authorities were working to get generators to several nursing homes. About 35 people, mostly elderly, had settled in at a shelter at Portsmouth High School by early afternoon.
"All the motels have no electricity, and that's why I'm here," said Duke Straychan of Hampton, who can't do without power because he uses an oxygen tank at night. People at the shelter dined on American chop suey and shepherd's pie and watched "The Polar Express" in the cafeteria.
Gov. John Lynch urged residents to "please go out of your way" to check on their neighbors, especially those who are elderly and live alone.
Both Lynch and Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick declared states of emergency Friday morning and called up members of the National Guard. Five hundred Massachusetts Guard members were cleaning up debris and clearing access to downed power lines. Lynch put 150 on alert and deployed 20.
"All of the resources at our disposal have been made available to try to get the roads clear and power restored," said Patrick, adding that it would be "ambitious" to think power would be restored by Monday to the 350,000 homes and businesses in his state left in the dark.
"This is not going to be a couple of hours," Patrick said. "It's likely to be several days."
The Red Cross, in conjunction with the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency, has opened 23 temporary shelters across the state. In Holden, which had no power, some senior citizens on oxygen were taken to the hospital or a shelter opened at the town's senior center.
New Hampshire homes and businesses without power topped 400,000, a number that represents about 55 percent of all the state's electricity customers, said Thomas Getz, chairman of the New Hampshire Public Utilities Commission.
"This is the absolute, most significant power restoration effort we've ever had. There has not been a storm before that has affected more customers," said Martin Murray, spokesman for the state's largest utility, Public Service Company of New Hampshire.
... Though blue skies appeared in some areas by Friday afternoon, temperatures were expected to fall below freezing again, with single digits forecast for Maine, Vermont and New Hampshire Saturday night.
And, he admitted to the Ponzi of it all. That floored me... that someone finally (FINALLY) admitted something.
Might be that a thousand here, a thousand there... a million here, a million there... and (ooooooops) a billion here & a billion there possibly made him realize it was real money & there was no possible way of hiding that fact.
I have to agree! W-h-a-t good is it????
Every Friday, we paid about 35 truckers over $85,000 in aggregate. We had another $15,000 roll over to Mondays. That was through August.
Today, we pay 7 truckers an aggregate of about $15,000. Granted, rail has slowed, but is taking up some of the volume previously overloaded onto truckers (due to railcar availability). Things are moving, but cautiously.
This is a disasterous time for truckers (independent or otherwise)
Yeah, but Flip Wilson looked great as Geraldine, no??? Ms. Lilly used to mimic her clothing choices but never, ever, had the same affect....
When Ms.Lilly said the Devil Made Me Do It, I believed her!
Did you read that the pension folks have approached Washington to address funding deficiency "forgiveness" (my word) for next year?
After all, the market decline & their use of probable returns ... in the 7% to 8% area.... was reasonable. Who would have known that the market would deliver negative returns while simultaneously reeking havoc on the principal ??
Gee whiz... we should let them keep the situation intact while the recipients grow ONE YEAR OLDER during a time that will force actuarial tables to dictate even MORE cash requirements than currently projected or imagined. And, in 2010, those same folks will be (yet another) year older.
This is a tin cup that affects every American covered by their plans. Folks ought to read & understand what's happening.
I was hoping that someone here would jump on the news.
I find that whole situation predictable, plausible, and a vulgar display of outrageous, self-serving greed.
I can't help but remember (with great clerity) your position on the "Big Dig" years ago...
It is FATE that you're watching anything with "DIG" as part of the name.... a little gasey now, but a DIG is a DIG.
LOL!!!!!
And, if prime mortgages are now in default, then the 401K money for those folks is exhausted? One of the 5 national reasons for a hardship withdrawal is foreclosure on a primary residence. Granted, liquidation of the assets held in the 401K can flood the market with sell transactions, but the liquidation in many mutual funds are not necessarily "putting money on the sidelines". Some of those redemptions were to fund a hardship withdrawal... just to pay the mortgage company.
I have to wonder, beyond job loss, exactly WHY the prime mortgages are in default when the mechanism to prevent it (hardship withdrawals/loans) are available.
Happy Thanksgiving to all!
Meredith Whitney, Oppenheimer....A MUST LISTEN !! This is from this mornings' ( 11/26) 6:00AM - 7:00AM Bloomberg. I caught the show but had to find the link for the last ten minutes as I had to go to work..
I don't care if you listen now, over the holidays, or over the weekend, this is an outstanding interview that goes to the heart of the banking problem and where it will lead us going forward. This gal evidently had the gag-rule taken off of her & she has very clear, very focused, outlook on 2009 banking sector.
Some things I truly like: "Tarp 3.0", "Junk in the trunk", and "Beneficial to Citi and such an affront to taxpayers".
Please take time to hear this. It sheds light upon whatever our expectations might be:
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Whitney%20Says%20Citigroup%2C%20Bank%20Capital%20Ratios%20Will%20Fall&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vgFucrsK65NY.asf
It might be a short term bottom. In fact, before the carnage next year will dish out, we might stay in a trading range. We'll just have to see.
Bye the bye, I found another Louise Yamada interview on CNBC (I guess it was right after Peter Lynch on 11/21/08). It's in the center, about 1/4 page down:
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2008/11/fear-louise-yamada.html
Possibly...
But 1200 pts on the Dow and (arghhh) 254 pts on the S&P means we are still at lofty heights.
I would LOVE to know what Louise Yamada's charts say.. especially if they reflect time spans.
Hit post #43433 & #43434 too! I would LOVE to hear your thoughts!
Court: did you catch the link for Peter Schiff on my post #43432 over the weekend?
It's a tad more profound.
This mornings' Pfennig (long, but a very good read):
EverBank World Markets
A Pfennig For Your Thoughts
Monday, November 24, 2008
The big news over the weekend was the unveiling of President-elect Obama's economic team. Obama has picked Timothy Geithner, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, to be his Treasury secretary, and former Treasury Chief Lawrence Summers will be White House economic director. Obama is also likely to nominate New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson as commerce secretary. Geithner has had a primary role in the Federal Reserve's attempt to steer Wall Street through the current financial tsunami. He also oversees most of the Fed's special lending programs set up this year to channel more than $1 trillion to banks and other financial institutions.
Just this weekend, Geithner helped push for additional funds to help Citigroup avoid a possible bankruptcy. The nation's largest financial services firm received $306 billion of U.S. government guarantees for troubled mortgages and toxic assets to stabilize the bank after its stock fell 60 percent last week. Citigroup also will get a $20 billion cash injection from the Treasury department, adding to the $25 billion the company received last month under the TARP. Just last week, current Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson was saying there aren't any firms which are "too big to fail," but I guess the rest of the administration decided he was wrong. The bailout of Citigroup has stabilized overseas markets, with currency investors starting to move back out of the "safe haven" of U.S. Treasuries.
The dollar has fallen vs. all of the major currencies in early European trading, with the high-yielding currency of Brazil leading the way with a 3.57% increase vs. the US$ since Friday. The Nordic currencies of the Swedish krona and Norwegian krone were in second and third place vs. the US$ with increases of just over 2%. The high-yielding South African rand was number 4, and the Danish krone rounded out the top five performing currencies this weekend. Chuck has been talking about the Viking Index CD during his presentations, which is a combination of the currencies of Norway, Sweden, and Denmark. This index gives investors an excellent way to take advantage of the short term strength of the US$; investing into currencies of countries with good solid underlying economic fundamentals.
The economic fundamentals of the U.S. continue to weaken, and Congress is now predicted to send President-elect Obama an economic stimulus package the day he takes office January 20th. Senator Charles Schumer and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer both said they would have a $500 to $700 billion stimulus package waiting on the new president's desk. The Federal Reserve, which has already pumped out hundreds of billions of dollars, is looking to flood the world financial system with even more money. The Treasury, on course to borrow some $1.5 trillion this fiscal year, will have to tap global capital markets for even more to finance this new economic rescue package.
The Fed has set up currency swap lines with more than a dozen other central banks. Some of these arrangements, including those with Europe, Britain and Japan, are open-ended, allowing the Fed's counterparts to draw as many dollars as they need. The U.S. has also established individual $30 billion swap lines with Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, and Singapore. These currency swaps are one of the items which has been propping up the value of the US$.
As the Fed has stepped up its efforts to combat the credit crisis, our U.S. balance sheet has mushroomed. Assets rose to $2.2 trillion from just $924 billion less than three months ago. The central bank's holdings are likely to increase further. "I would not be surprised to see them aggregate to $3 trillion - roughly 20 percent of GDP - by the time we ring in the new year," Dallas Fed President, Richard Fisher said on Nov. 4th.
On November 3, the department tripled its estimate of planned debt sales in the final three months of the year to a record $550 billion. Paulson told a conference in Washington November 17 that the U.S. will issue some $1.5 trillion worth of Treasury securities in the fiscal year that began October 1st. And that number is also likely to grow. Obama's pick for his administration's economic advisor, Lawrence Summers told the same conference that the U.S. needs a "speedy, substantial and sustained" stimulus package to aid the economy. By the time it all ends, the TARP will likely be closer to $2 trillion than $1 trillion.
The danger, other than the fact that eventually our children and grandchildren will have to repay this debt, is that this dumping of dollars into the world's financial markets will end up with inflation skyrocketing higher. After all, the ultra-easy Fed policy of the late '90s is exactly what fueled the asset bubbles and the problems we are dealing with today. But Bernanke and Paulson aren't worried about inflation right now, as they try to prevent the biggest credit catastrophe in decades from sending the economy into a deflationary nosedive. Over the long run, the current policies will create inflation, and with the huge amount of money supply being pumped into the markets, the move from deflation to inflation will be abrupt. The Fed won't be able to immediately drain the markets of the huge amounts of money supply which have been pumped in. Unfortunately I think we could be facing a rapid increase in inflation just around the corner.
China announced plans for a second Chinese stimulus package in order to keep their economy expanding at a rate over 8 percent for each of the next two years. The new proposals include income tax cuts, salary increases, and larger housing subsidies, Chinese reported yesterday. The new proposals show the government is determined to maintain strong growth as the rest of the world slips into recession. A growing Chinese economy will provide an anchor to the overall Asian region, and will help stabilize commodity prices. I continue to believe the Asian currencies, along with the currencies of commodity exporters, have some of the best value. China will maintain a good growth rate, and is slowly moving toward a more balanced economy, with internal demand picking up some of the slack left by the Western recession.
While this week will be short, it is packed with data as we will see home sales today. Tomorrow is a bigger day as we get 3rd quarter GDP, Personal Consumption, Consumer Confidence, and the S&P Home Price Index. And to close out the data week, on Wednesday we will get Durable Goods, Personal Income and Spending, New Home Sales, U of Mich Confidence, and the PCE numbers along with the weekly jobs data. Like I said, it will be a lot of data packed into a very short week. Could make for some volatile days in the currency markets.
Currencies today 11/24/08: A$ .6387, kiwi .5398, C$ .7905, euro 1.2751, sterling 1.4991, Swiss .8257, ISK (No Quote), rand 10.28, krone 7.0627, SEK 8.1964, forint 207.03, zloty 3.0363, koruna 19.98, yen 95.49, baht 35.29, sing 1.5175, HKD 7.7525, INR 50.09, China 6.8285, pesos 13.5737, BRL 2.3906, dollar index 86.96, oil $51.65, silver $10.04, and gold... $821.00
That's it for today... As I said in the first paragraph, the Xmas party on Friday night was a great time, even though I wasn't among the top bowlers or pool players. Yesterday my son and I had to choose between going duck hunting or heading to the Rams game. We chose correctly, as the Rams got embarrassed by the Chicago Bears, and Brendan and I had a great afternoon in the duck blind. This will be a short week, as Chuck emailed me that we will be shutting the phones down early on Wednesday. Both Chuck and I will be out on Friday, as I will be heading up to Chicago for my son's hockey tournament and Chuck will be cleaning up from his big Thanksgiving day bash. Hope everyone has a great start to the short week, and a Marvelous Monday!!
Chris Gaffney, CFA
Vice President
EverBank World Markets
1-800-926-4922
1-314-647-3837
www.everbank.com
PFENNIG DISCLOSURE
I can't help but think that there is a push to keep the Dow above the 7200 level. They literally 'run' to get it higher.
What was the cause of gold spiking $30 an ounce today?
Most appealing is his easy-to-understand presentation of his views. Any layman can follow his thinking whereas Greenspan, Paulson, & Bernanke use politically correct "challenges", "adverse effects", "wealth effect"... cloudy words that fail to paint a vivid picture.
He presents vivid imagery!
Sold some AA & GLW:
Alcoa +6.4%
Corning +10.4%
Partial on GE +1.7%
If AA had not had the 23% increase the other day, I would SURELY have been underwater!
Thank you Mr. Market..,.
That being said (and though it is much more satisfying to post here), I have to get back to work.
Pulling YET ANOTHER 7-day workweek....
Where's my violin when I need it? LOL!
"The Euro is not a currency, it's a fragile agreement among enemies to poke a stick in the eye of the US. I've been very clear about my point of view with regard to the Euro. It's not worth the dirt under your feet. "
Bravo!!!!
The only place I find anyone 'broadcasting their book' in real time is here! I miss posting half my trades over a year's period because of time & work, but others post their book when it happens. Also (prior to a trade), guidance is given that the trade will happen and... yeah!... a price range for that guidance.
Thus, Mohacsy's Safe Portfolio !
On the call for gold @ $2000 in 2009, DON'T I WISH !!! I do, however, have an understanding of how gold works in today's world. It works just like it did in yesterday's world. It is perception, rarity, and the fact that the metal has been tested for over 2000 years & has, for the most part, won. But to say that the current value of the dollar buys an ounce of gold for $726, and that the dollar in 2009 will buy an ounce of gold for $2000, then a near hyperinflation (no?) must occur. I wonder if they think these things through... and IF there was a perfect correlation in gold & dollar movements, then milk ($4.00 now) would be $11.00.... Coke at $1.25/can would be $3.44/can. I know there is never a perfect correlation, but the gold price should not be seen as a 'gain', but rather a preservation of capital. What he is saying is that to preserve $1.00 as we know it today, we will need $2.75 next year. To me, that's absurd.
Manufacturing is not the holy grail of an economy. It is the base of every known successful economy in the past. We can't ignore that fact.
On your last point (bears continuing to call even worse apocolypse-- sp -- in the future), I agree. Even when we are at the point of reversal, they never seem to recognize any of the points that the market turns. They just keep talking their talk. Also, in my last post, I think we are both right in that governments & such will interfere with this downward spiral.
I'm glad you took on those posts in the spirit in which they were posted...
That being that they place a little more in the pot to consider... to wait... to see if they are right.
Always keeping in mind 'their call' at a very important juncture.
The commentators should have shut up. They have misguided for years & are part of the problem in that they did NOT deliver the intense news investigation that would have sparked investigation into at least 90% of the financial problems we find ourselves faced with.
I can adamantly state that the folks on this site saw, reported, & investigated (in real time) problems which have, over the past year, blown up.
We should get their pay!!!!
How did you know I was sipping coffee??!! LOL!
What I like about these three posts is that since I left the links here, we can tag these & review them in the future.
It's somewhat satisfying for a forecaster to say "I was right" a couple of times in the past. This time in the market, I can understand why they are interviewing prior successful forecasters. It's like trying to pick the best general, with the best plan, to give vision to the troups. In this case, it's not bullets, it's money & our futures.
If Peter Schiff ( #43432 ) is right about the climate of the market going forward, then we certainly have problems. His premise is that the fall of commodities, the rise in the USD, and the price of gold are temporary (& 'temporary prices' should not be viewed as 'permanent prices' going forward). His position that gold has been a great investment for currencies other than the dollar & yen in that it preserved buying power for those currencies, has some merit. His adamant perspective on the upcoming fall of the dollar would, therefore, necessitate the increase in the value of gold in USD. There would be repercussions economically hard to swallow should all of which he predicts comes to fruitation.
If Louise Yamada (# 43433) is right about the S&P and her technical analysis, then we should expect a bottom at S&P 600. That nearly knocked me out of my chair as that is a 25% decline from Friday's closing balance.
More importantly, and since I have followed Elliottwave theory for years -- though ONLY as a good probability theory and NOT a timing theory -- her multiple references to their theory of Alternation of Cycles is a good one in that it is nearly always right. That theory says that the current cycle should be less like the prior (comparative) cycle ( 1966 - 1982 ) and more like the alternate cycle ( 1929 - 1938 ). The theory does NOT imply the same circumstances to repeat themselves, but rather addresses the dynamic 'damage degree' (comparing bear markets) or the dynamic 'upside degree' (comparing bull markets). I do not know where she gets the S&P @ the 600 level as the charts she looked at were not broadcast.
Now then, the Good, Bad, & Ugly chartist already has the current S&P decline @ 49% worse than 1938. So, Yamada's reference to Elliottwave Alternation of Cycles has already proved correct in the S&P (but not the Dow). Further decline in the S&P (as she predicts) only worsens the "UGLY" tag on that decline. I agree that it takes years to repair & backfill and that will be very hard for all of us who want the repair & backfill to occur quickly. Sounds like she was saying a 'one day rally does not make a recovery' & was cautioning that it will take year or two for equities to move into stronger hands.
I'm not sure what the Treasury or governments around the world will do going forward, but it might be that THEY become the 'stronger hands' if they heavily support the markets. I'm not sure, but I don't think the treasuries of the world went into markets & kept them from falling in the Alternate Cycle to which they are comparing....
Anything can happen to influence a non-repeat of those era's due to SWF, global treasury & Central bank activities.
But... at least we have those uncomfortable posts to refer to when we look back & compare 'visions of 2009-10' with the 'realities of 2009-10'.
There we go... three things to think about on a weekend with no trades.
Three is a charm. So, I'm headin' home.
The Good, Bad, & Ugly..
Take a watch... if you wear glasses, put them on!
http://www.goodmorningwallst.com/files/gmws112108/gmws112108.html
Another good interview w/ Louise Yamada (technical readings)... wonder what we think of her read of where we are & where we are going?
Don't know if you all have chimed in on this interview, but if you have not, take a listen....
Wondering what your thoughts are in response to this broadcast.
Take this paragraph from the article & re-read it:
"In a Detroit press conference yesterday, Gettelfinger said automakers including Toyota Motor Corp., Honda Motor Co. and Daimler AG have received incentives for building plants in states such as Alabama."
The Toyota Camry is made in my county (Scott). Yes, there were state incentives; yes, there were local (county) incentives. In return, Toyota has empowered our community with a sustainable future, contributes to worthy causes, pays fair wages, and has become part of the community. The return on the 'incentives' for the state & local governments has been enormous. Toyota is non-union.
If any of the Big 3 were to have come into our area, the same incentives would have been given to them. There is no unfair "lure". They are complaining about an unfair advantage that they declined to embrace.
If you recall, the competition to the Big 3 developed plants in the South over the '90's & were considered to be a great investment (stock, etc) for an investor. You should also recall that the Unions in the North took UAW pension money & invested in stocks of the car makers in the South. To wit, they invested in the success of the very competition to which they are now complaining about.
The spin in these articles is just dumbfounding!