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April 5 calls for C are selling at .21 contract. With about 3 days to expiry, i tried selling these calls...but ameritrade won't let me....seems like easy money to me.
Looking at my "axis of dead" portfolio...it has had quite a run the last couple of weeks. i said i would keep this as a gamble play boom or bust...but given the run, i'm trying to put a hedge in place for this week.
it is interesting that the last glimmer of light has to sell stock to pay back money they supposedly never needed, eh?
...or it's another subtle threat. read another way, it could be interpreted as "doom doom doom doom...unless republicans play nice and let my policies through uncontested".
One good thing about all this is that it is in a strange way good to see that Obama has recognized that politics can't be easily changed...seems like he is embracing some of the proven tactics of politicians past and present rather than truly calling for "changes in the political landscape"
eric, when i saw GS reported early, my initial thought was that they did not want to share headlines with GM's banruptcy announcement.
i too think there is a lot of dialogue in the background pertaining to a possible GM bankruptcy and how to spin it positively.
SPY Gap Supports..
84.33 seems like a good daily support to watch and one to place stops if you are long.
If 84.33 goes, then likely we'll close the GAP to 82.94.
If it doesn't break, then the gap and run play is still on the board...
yeah...it's all relative eh?
a fall from 100 to 1 is 99%.
a rise from 1 to 2 is 100%.
i'd prefer a red close today...
that would be a better set up for a green close tomorrow i think.
lol...do they still charge for their research or are they giving it away free now?
I can't help but think about the volatility back in 1929-1932. type of volatility we have not seen until 2008.
You don't have to believe in banks, but i think you have to acknowledge that the market does not always seemingly move in a rational or logical manner.
I think going with the flow here may be a better strategy than trying to pick a top or scaling in short (i mention the latter only because the rally looks like a continuation of the powerful v-shape rebound). Unless these sell days show some underlying intensity, i think they get bought.
I feel that S&P 875 wants to be tested. It may or may not be this week (prob not, considering that it is options expiration and a ton of calls opened at S&P 850 area), but my feeling is that it will be tested...
BKX up +3% while Mkt down...worth a watch into close as this has been a highly accurate one or two day trade setup in recent history. (in this case, it would be bull trade)
that assumes i'm interested in shorting, which right now i'm not.
i think there is the possibiltiy for a short trade here in the next couple of days given the the type of move we saw friday...but i don't see any major technical reasons why at this time i should not continue to believe dips will be bought.
What is the market seeing that we do not?
Is having a negative outlook on the economy synonymous with having a negative outlook on the stock market?
I think the general consensus here is that things are and likely to get worst, and i am no different in that thinking. However, i struggle to place trades on that premise. It is a difficult thing to do because i think our fundamental reasoning is more proned to be influenced by an "in-the-moment" effect on our psychology...if you hit me now, i feel pain now, not 6 months from now, and further more that pain may give way to either to fear or anger; i probably will shortly afterwards hit you right back or run like a scared little girl...one sends me to jail the other might cause me to get run over by a car..or train. lol.
ok..i took that analogy a little too far. Back to my struggles...
Logically i can not see why anyone would buy a market in this environment, and ofcourse, being the logical person i like to believe i am...i often question my sanity when i turn bullish in an environment like this. But the reason i do is basically a winning battle with this struggle (currently anyway): separating what my views based on data coming out daily showing a worsening economy and instead sticking to primarily price and volume analysis (technicals). I remind myself that fundamentals do lag and that things like employment will continue to decline 6, 8 even a year after a bottom.
Does this mean i think the bottom is in? No..but i don't bet on it NOT being in either. Point is, currently i would need to see some technical damage, and at the moment, the one or 2 day sell-offs, the way they are occurring, has done nothing but FORCED me to suppress acting on what the fundamental data is screaming or what i am feeling.
This works for me as a short to intermediate term trader...but as we well know, the nay sayers that are often right, usually are screaming into a void well in advance...before major declines. I see some of them out there...no one is again listening, BUT, i also see a fair amount of familiar wrong-sided crowd trying to take the stage, and unfortunately the fact that they are getting the media attention...well makes me remain in my stance. Wasn't it only two weeks ago that every house, except for USB, came out with notes predicting more doom?
anyway, enough rambling....have a good Easter everyone.
Down days showing rather tepid volume...nothing really a bear could use as an arguement.
It does feel like this might be a pause before the next leg up...
market putting in a bit of an end of day rally here (near flat at the moment), but with BKX off about 3%, could be a head fake...
someone had a little fun writing that article it seems..."passed judgment", "commanded", "spaketh"..
...and those with shotguns can take from the 'increasingly grateful'.
DISCLAIMER: For the sense-of-humor impaired, this was only a joke. If this were actually a real commentary, you would have been provided instructions on proper gun handling and safety practices. This concludes our lame and tasteless attempt humor.
lol...?
There certainly is a lot of negativity all of a sudden...i find it a bit odd how quick they went from hot to cold.
Well, pundits and media heralded doom is usually a good thing for the markets. lol
OT: im tired of hearing about Twitter. i don't twitter and i don't see the point of twitter. Am i out of touch?
financials are really at interesting spot here. yesterday lagging, today strong. have a look at XLF, hitting up against strong resistance that could spark a breakout move...a really nice looking Cup & Handle on the daily.
Only thing is it looks too tempting...not going to touch it, but at the same time, not gonna bet against it either.
interesting to note the XLF and BKX trended down pretty much all day from the morning highs while the S&P continued to make higher intraday highs before selling towards the end.
Also seeing some unconfirmed negative divergence between price vs RSI and MACD histogram on the daily...
Seems like someone was using todays run to to exit...it's not exactly sell signal, but my gut tells me whoever was selling financials today were exiting early for reason...would not be suprised if profit taking occurs into option expiration. thinking of possibly shorting any bounce tomorrow...
I'm read the article below stating Roubini is less bearish these days. I couldn't help but take note that today is April 1st...
----------------------------------------------------------
Roubini: Go Ahead, Keep Dreaming of That "V-Shaped" Recovery
Posted Apr 01, 2009 07:30am EDT by Henry Blodget in Investing, Recession, Banking
Related: xlf, ^dji, ^gspc
As we noted earlier, Nouriel Roubini of RGE Monitor actually has a surprisingly non-apocalyptic forecast for the economy: The first quarter of this year will mark the worst rate of decline, and the outlook will gradually improve from there.
We'll still be in a recession through 2009, says Roubini (in contrast to most economists, who think the economy will be growing nicely by Q4). But then, finally, the economy will begin to recover.
But what will this recovery look like? Will it be the V-shaped rocket launch that some bulls are looking for?
No.
It will be an L-shaped slog, says Roubini. The economy will grow at a depressingly slow rate for quite a while, and the stock market will tread water. We may have seen the lows on the S&P 500 (or close to it) but that doesn't mean stocks will make you any money anytime soon.
Worth it to keep an eye on the BKX, currently up 3% while market is basically flat. if market remains flat or is down, and the BKX remains significantly up (around +2 to 3%), recent history suggest an up market tomorrow or friday.
volatile market...would not be suprised to see it lower, or much higher. i think that S&P 790 area is key S/R to traders...
i think so too...still plenty of shorts out there still, more need to give up.
you can download the historical data from yahoo and import to your favorite software. i write my own scripts and studies....
regarding the cpce..i havent looked at it yet, but i imagine it is neutral considering it was turning up only 2 days ago.
5% moves in the market (DJI)..
1929: 13 occurrence from 10/7/1929 to 12/12/29
1931: 13 occurrences
1932: 37 occurrences (year of bottom)
1933: 20 occurrences
Since then until 2008, we haven't had a year with more than five 5% moves. In fact, the largest clusters seen after 1933 were in 1937(5 occurrences) and 1987(4 occurrences)
in 2008 we had how many? lucky number 13...
just the beginning? makes you wonder...
Keep in mind however...
-in 1929 the first low was 195.35 in Nov
-The maret then put in a good rally to 297.25(+52%) over the next 5 months
-that high would hold for the next 2 years..the bottom came in 1932 at 40.56
a few months ago you were hearing a lot of comparisons with 1929. It has died down since (as i'm sure it did in early 1930 during that bear market rally). Let's hope for everyone's sake the comparisons remain in the past...
trend lines...
Stoch i just care about extremes and to be honest, i don't really use it that much any more..i prefer the RSI as an oscillator type indicator.
Macd itself i don't really use...the cross overs are lagging indications (when the Macd makes a cross over, it's equivalent to the Macd histogram going positive or negative).
What i prefer is the MACD histogram and there i look for divergence (when price is making a higher high, but the peaks in the histogram are showing lower highs, and vice versa..when price is making lower lows (bearish), but the macd is showing higher lows (bullish). In fact, Macd divergenc is on my favoriate things to watch for...i love divergence patterns; they help you guage when a move to higher highs or lower lows is likely to end.
Everything will be fine as long as there is no sign of anarchy...oh wait
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/europe/03/31/france.hostages.caterpillar.workers/index.html
interesting to note that despite very lopsided breadth, volume was rather weak yesterday.
hi emmett,
>What time frame are you using, or is best?
Daily, showing as much data as is available. When i was subscriber of Stockcharts, i would hide the chart (set it's color to opaque), and show only the SMA's
>are the moving averages, sma or ema?
SMAs, EMAs should do fine as well and should infact show a smoother moving averages. I use EMAs on price chart but in this case, i prefer the SMAs...mostly habit and i think most traders that follow such thing pay attention to the SMA on this chart.
>am i looking strickly at ma movement up or down?
i look for extremes..peaks and troughs. i used to have a 10 year chart of the S&P that that showed the 10 and 21 MA. on that chart i drew a horizontal line across where most of the peaks were (sort of a visual mean)..and the same with the lows. I would use those lines as possible signals..
that is just how i have my setup...other's i am sure might do things differently.
Men well give up plenty when they are in fear. Politicians know this well...
Well that is definitely deserving of some some congratulations!
So i had a brainfart of any idea to create an 'axis of dead' portfolio. The GTC orders were put in last week and i see some triggered today...you can probably guess what they were by seeing which financials were down more than 10% at some point today. lol.
I did not intend to throw big money at this..and still don't; but it will be scaled into and held for quite some time..bust or boom.
i think on the down side, 800 i think is one pyschological support to watch..around 790 is the 50MA.
On the upside, around 825 continues to be resistance...a clean break above there could be lead to the next leg up towards 875 area...which is a pretty strong resistance area.
in between 790/800 - 825 is limbo land.
Both the 10 and 21 MA of the CPCE are turning up..so they are not going to give that sell signal just yet.
Comparing BKX performace to S&P continues to work well as a ver short term signal. yesterday BKX was pretty much flat compared to the S&P which closed near it's highs. Sure enough, the market sells today.
still..i do think we remain biased upwards and sell offs could bring dip-buyers in. i'd rather buy dip than trying to hit pick a top...for now anyway.
i agree...even if you "miss" a run, there is nothing wrong with buying higher, if that buy has less risk. they'll always be dips to buy...and in some cases, those dips can be 10 percenters or more, especially when you have V-shape rallies like these.
it is a contrarian/sentiment indicator if you think about what it means..a higher P/C reading means that equity traders are buying more puts than calls (they are bearish), and vice versa.
the average joe however is usually wrong and contrarians prefer do the opposite of what the masses are doing.
it doesn't really have a relationship with the RSI..it's more a senitment indicator, and sentiment can be either bullish or bearish in oversold/overbought conditions.
single day spikes in the p/c can be helpful for short term traders if that spike is abnormally large...but i think the value from this indicator comes from the 10 and 21 MA, as it tends to help guage possible changes in market direction lookout further.
add two moving averages, a 21 and 10 (some use 13, i like one faster reading so i use 10). i also like to add another PRICE indicator of the SPX in separate pane.
You can then observe the highs and lows on the 21 and 10ma lines and compare to the S&P. you'll notice that for intermediate term traders, near the .90 range has been good times to buy and around .50 to .60 for the 10ma has historically been a good time to take profit. As with the VIX however, the general trend OF THE P/C is factor...thre isn't really an absolute number such as you'll find with other indicators like the RSI that indicates overbough/oversold. trend lines come in handy in these cases..