Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Good to see the Russell 2K and the DOW Transports lead the way down today. Also, nice to see very large volume on QQQ on the way down and NASD volume over 2B again.
Little crap stocks that flew in this rally need to come down far more before any type of real rally ensues.
Thanks Fred, nice call. I figured volatile stocks like SINA need to have a little more room to wiggle but somewhere he'd have a stop as I also believe these can get cut in half in no time.
Jerry, are you still holding that double position of SINA with no stops? You've traded these chinese Inets well on the upside. I'm interested in how the pro plays this slight deterioration in price hoping it doesn't lead to anything more significant.
Out of curiosity why no stops on these when you usually seem to employ stops?
Good to hear from you MLSOFT. Vacations are a necessity in life, especially when you have a family. I disappear for a long time as well when I have other priorities.
Anyway, nice to hear from you again and enjoy the time!
I have some profits locked on short traders now as well and hope to see a continued down trend but like you do not underestimate AG and other influences.
Didn't you recently mention some order cancellations in semi land? MU call seems fairly positive although they never give forward guidance for the quarter. Sounded a little like they are hedging their bets keeping very low inventory.
I think the MU con call just said INTC got 33.9M shares of MU for $450M (please correct me if I heard this incorrectly). Doing the math, I get $13.27 per share vs. the current price of $14.57. Does anyone have any thoughts on if this is bearish or bullish for MU stock?
Good luck. I think these stocks are very risky to get hit hard. They will go down just as fast as they went up so be careful.
What's your stop loss on SINA?
Dow, NAS, and Chinese Inets just hit LODs.
Looks like you'll get your -50.
Chinese Inets $3 - $4 off their HODs... Rolling over.
Stopped out of NTES short at $66.48 (+1.43). Looks like they went fishing for my stop before they dump this thing even more.
Chinese Inets getting rocked here Jerry. Stops in place.
Are you buying the dip?
I'd like to cover NTES at around 20 but probably won't be so lucky.
Short NTES yesterday at $67.91, QQQ at $34.48, and STN at $32.20
No, Jerry I'm not kidding. NTES now negative and $2 off it's intraday high. SOHU off $1.50. SINA hanging tough only $.75 off the high.
Chinese inets rolling over here intraday. SOHU, NTES now a buck off their intraday highs and SOHU just went negative for a minute. Tight stops I hope.
Thanks for the response. Can you give a little detail on what "look me right in the eye" means? Is it volume drying up on the highs, volume increasing on the down cycles, rollover in the charts, etc? I'm just trying to get a little more specific on the signs that the stocks with high % float short are starting to roll over. As we approach end of month window dressing that may be a good time to scale into some of these shorts.
Thanks.
Bear, good comments on CYMI. I have been following some stocks with high % of float short (CYMI has 17%). Many of these stocks eventually crash hard when the market turns.
It's difficult to determine when these stocks have had their run and if you're on the wrong side they can go much higher short term.
Do you have thoughts on timing (starting shorts) on stocks like CYMI?
Thanks.
mlsoft, you've been off the board for 5 days and people are worried. Since your last post was to me I figured I'd ping ya.
Go visit these guys at WAVX in Cupertino and I wouldn't be surprised if it looked like a ghost town that at one time had lots of VC money to burn through and now are facing the realities of desperate measures. I haven't been there so I could be very wrong but just guessing on past similar what appears to be pumping excursions.
Bearmove, I was almost going to comment on how this was a good article until I saw Luskin omitted nonfarm payrolls and that's really the most accurate indicator. He should have done a more thorough job on his research.
Philly Fed 14.6 vs. expectation of 17 - LOOK OUT BELOW!
I told you the BtB had a delayed effect. But this is bad news. On the other end, I believe Bear Sterns earnings have buoyed the BKX big time and that's the major reason we're not red.
I usually work on SMH as a general stock representing all of the SOX but you can always try AMAT, KLAC, or NVLS although the powers that be love to run these.
However, I just heard that Infineon had some positive news and I think they're the 2nd biggest semiconductor company in Europe. Seems their news coincided with a turnaround in the futures across the board so keep an eye on this news compared with btb news.
See what the morning brings us.
Probably the same firms that keep upgrading KLAC, NVLS, and AMAT.
At least they got to distribute their shares after the runup.
Japan opened down 50 points at the open. Japan is very volatile at the open so hard to tell if this means anything but they're not starting a Grasso rally "yet."
mlsoft or anyone who lives in the book-to-bill world have any deep thoughts on the latest report? Is it "worse than expected" as I believe or are there reasons to see positive signs in the report?
I lean more towards down tomorrow and Friday. No reason to rally on the Grasso news. In a week, some guy can be fired by the court of public opinion??? While he may be paid too much, this is very unsettling for public companies. Who's next, Immelt? Ballmer?
My biggest concern would be "who will replace these guys?" They're good at their job, just overpaid in other's eyes. Can't they just take a big pay cut and move on????? That should have been an option here.
This was very rapid as well. In some ways that's good, in others it's scary.
I seem to remember this report always has a delayed reaction in the markets. Last month the July preliminary number of .97 was viewed positively and the semi's rallied into the number and after the number but it took a day to spike up hard.
Now that July has been revised down significantly, especially in bookings and August is far less than expected with all the chatter about getting a book-to-bill over 1.00, this news is no doubt disappointing.
I may short some SMH or 3 amigos tomorrow. This could be the catalyst for the pullback you have been expecting.
This actually seems quite negative for the semi's - weakness could arrive tomorrow.
Don't remember much of Matrix so I'm still a bit in a fog. and maybe a little slow so feel free to spell it out for me.
No spoon?
Unemployment number tomorrow doesn't really mean a thing. The only number worth watching is the monthly Nonfarm Payrolls. That is truly a measure of employment.
If I had to guess I bet it's +/- 5K from the expected 410K. Outside of that range and you have something that may move the market.
I'm somewhat bearish but can you explain why BBY news was so bad?
Roadmap for today Zeev?
The ORCL news is bad news - there's no way to spin this positively. That's why they need PSFT, because their apps. revenue is light and they've invested a lot in apps.
I pointed out this probability more than once last night.
Thanks for the Heartscan info AK and m....... - sounds like something worth looking into.
OT: Anyone out there ever hear of a heartscan? They're out here in CA for around $500 a pop and probably not covered by insurance but I hear they really do check the amount of blockage in your arteries so if it works as purported would it make sense for all of us to get one maybe once every 5 or 10 years to see if our theories are working?
I don't know much about the Heartscan but wondered if anyone out there has any experiemce with it.
Whether the theory is wine, supplements, etc., it would be nice to compare the artery blockage every 5 or 10 years or so.
Thanks.
Don't count on that 100%. ORCL has had bad earnings before and their stock has gone down. I know in this environment it seems there's no way the stock will go down regardless of the news but time will tell (about 10 1/2 hours).
I tend to agree more with DiBona seeing a 20% decrease in application sw revenue vs. Murphy who sees a 7% rise. Amazing how different their projections are.
By the way I have no position in ORCL or PSFT right now. I'm hoping the earnings are received poorly and PSFT goes down in sympathy so I can pick up some more PSFT at $16 - $17.
If I'm wrong and ORCL blows out their earnings, I have no position.
They may want to look good and believe me they will do what they can with ProForma EPS but there isn't much you can do with "top line" application software revenue and that's what I'd look at if I were to assess the future of ORCL.
I don't think we get good news out of ORCL tomorrow - especially weakness in application revenue which is a big focus with the PSFT acquisition. DB rev should do OK. I would guess the news is interpreted as "not good enough."
That was a real quick buck loss on SINA. Amazing how these things can move a buck in 5 or 10 minutes. Still leads me to believe they will crash hard some day.
Looks like the SOX is bouncing a bit as well but I don't see today as a big up day. Just may not be your day today.