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'I would actually EXPECT the President in a time of war in Iraq and against terrorists to be made as safe as possible. I wouldn't be scared. I'd be more scared if I heard him say "I'm never in danger." '
But you're being logical here, and Bush haters don't think that way <g>.
'Further, much as your argument that they'd find a smaller tranmitter here in the 21st century makes great sense to me, don't you think they'd find a bulletproof vest that was equally as advanced?'
I know wireless, but I don't know much about new vest technologies <g>, so I don't know if they could've done better...I know that I watched the debate and never noticed it until it was brought up on the news. Even then it was a certain camera angle with the light shining just right to show the crease in his jacket. The first thing that came to my mind was a protective vest.
My logic would tell me that the White House doesn't want to say that the president, who's assuring everyone how much safer they are with him as president, is walking around with a bulletproof vest, especially at a debate in front of people whom he wants votes from. I mean, if he's walking around Iraq is one thing, but these were common people at a friendly debate. It's one thing to say that the American people would understand it because he's the president, but when you're dealing with outraged democrats all over the country, you know they'd be all over him asking why he needs it if we're so safe here.
"And just what the heck WAS that bulge under Bush's jacket???"
I can't believe this was ever brought up...I mean, this shows how f'ing crazy some people are. I've heard so many dems say it was a wireless device through which he was being fed info...shit, don't you think there are smaller devices that could be used if that's what that was. We're in the 21st century here, I think they could've planted something a bit smaller don't ya think <ggg>.
It was a bulletproof vest for god's sake!!!
Exactly. You've also got the dow 400sma tagged for the first time two days ago, and some pretty nice upmoves have started from there in the past.
Justa try this, look at those same things on April 17th 2003...the cpc level, rsi5, ma's. Then look at the comp on that date and compare to the comp or ndx today. Looks awfully similar...and the comp and ndx rallied huge the next two months. This isn't a prediction, just pointing out that the exact same setup was there back then as far as the cpc and the comp/ndx.
What'd we get, about 9.8%? Whatever, we could still do it in the next few days, every other dow low this year has taken several days or more to form, perhaps this one will too. One difference though, this was the first to tag the 400sma, and we've seen in the past that the 400sma can start some nice upmoves.
The comp also held the 50ema the past two lows...interesting how much that looks like the mar-apr 03 action right before it took off. I'm not really expecting the same though...I do think we'll find a way to go a bit lower soon...the summations are still pointed down and need more time to finish that IMO. But I really wouldn't care if we didn't.
I don't get the "transition year" comment...the next 3 years will be huge with w-cdma ramping. I'm more worried about what happens after that. I think they just want the stock cheaper.
RESEARCH ALERT-Morgan Stanley cuts Qualcomm
Tue Oct 26, 2004 12:00 PM ET
NEW YORK, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley on Tuesday lowered its investment rating on Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM.O: Quote, Profile, Research) to "underweight" from "equal weight," saying 2005 will be a transition year for the company.
The stock may trade down 15 percent to 20 percent before it can sustain a meaningful advance, the research note said.
The typical 4 year cycle is not necessarily at work...we're behaving almost identically to the years 33-36, so far.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=4366948
We were in a secular bear after 1929 also, but 33-36 were great years, the reinflation of the bubble. 2.5 year crash into 32, 33 was huge, 34 was flat, kind of like the past 4 years...35-36 were huge...37 the bear resumed. I know, things are different, it can't happen again, etc...I've heard this quite a bit. I still believe, even with modest s&p growth next year, the market's still significantly undervalued. I guess we'll know soon enough.
http://www.amateur-investors.com/The_Stock_Market_Crash_of_1929.htm
The dow just tagged its 400sma for the first time Friday...during the 90's, this was a great place to go long. Since I think we're still in the cyclical bull, I think we'll get a similar outcome this time. As I've been saying for a few weeks, I still think we could drop as low as 9625-9650, the area of the 200 week avgs, but I'd expect a decent reversal from there. Perhaps we get that early monday. The worst cases of the 400sma breaking were end of 94 and 98, where we spent weeks below instead of days, and the resulting rallies were monsters. IMO, the longer we stay down here, for instance, if we haven't taken out the nas 2153 high by dec, the better 05 becomes. I've been thinking 2350-2400 by Jan-Feb, then correct hard into Spring. If we continue to drag down here until dec or so, then take off would be in Jan-Feb, and we'd basically get a repeat of 03, straight up into fall 05, probably towards 2500. All JMO.
Ok, several weeks ago when I said I thought we'd rise to 1975, then fall to 1875, I was thinking rise to the 200sma, then fall to 300ema...all on the comp of course. The strength of the Nas made me start thinking the 300ema may no longer be possible, and 1900 would hold but after today, we'll see. So yes, I think the ndx testing its 300sma is possible...that's just 14 points below now.
What I'm focusing on now is the dow and its 400sma. Just touched it for the first time today...other than a few temporary breaks during the 90s, this provided an excellent entry point to go long. I'd like to see a bit more down to about 9650 next week...the 200 week avgs are in the 9625-9650 range. Of course, I still think that we're in a cyclical bull and that this test of the 400sma will be a significant low...others may disagree and think we're headed back into the bear.
edit: summations still need time to cycle down as well
On what?
That's what I thought would be a worst case scenario, something like 94...and the early dec low was a higher low than the summer lows...I agree that 1750 should not be taken from here. I mentioned something like this a couple months ago, that my worst case would have us basically drifting for another 4-6 months (from a couple months ago), similar to 94. If this happens, 05 becomes a monster IMO, with very few corrections, and mostly up throughout the year. As it stands now, if we rally hard to 2350 or so in early 05, I'd think we correct for a few months into May or so...if we drift now, that doesn't happen, and after Feb or so, we're straight up the rest of the year, probably towards 2500. All IMO.
Hey zeev, from your experience, does that rotation mean anything to you? I've still got a 2350-2400 target for late Jan-Feb, and all along I've thought the sox would outperform everything and take out the old 560 high, possibly get 600 if the Nas reaches 2400. So I like the looks of this so far.
I still think it's possible we get another drop on the dow to the 9650-9700 area, but the Nas probably won't break 1900 again.
Just need a bit more time for the summations to cycle down and turn back up.
All that BRCM money must be going into GOOG <ggg>.
Verizon Deploying Fiber Optics to Homes and Businesses in 6 More States in Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/041021/nyth133_1.html
I think number 1 on your list was the third base coach's fault, not Francona's.
I agree with the other two...I thought for sure they'd find a way to lose it even after being up big, but they came through. Boston made so many fundamental errors in the series...inability to bunt, move runners over, baserunning blunders, etc...they're lucky the Yankee hitters decided the series was over a few games early. But that's how it is every year, and a few plays end up making the difference in the series...it was finally Boston's turn, good for them...I hate the Yankees.
Apparently that means a 20% jump in the stock price <g>.
Who's next...jdsu?
VZ's supposed to talk about their plan some time today.
Alcatel gets $1.7 billion SBC contract
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?guid=%7BC39D9057-8163-49BE-8AF2-93D74CFFE218%7D&s...
Hey Jim, you have a COD date today right? Since those are typically +/- one day, could yesterday's turn up have satisified it, or is the selloff from today's high it? Or do we wait and see in a couple days which it was?
TIA
Yes it is hysterical...
And now we've got one of the largest euro co's going with qcom chips...this is huge. Starting to make sense why qcom has outperformed the past year...as the news continues to roll out the next couple years, it'll just make it more and more obvious qcom is one of the few co's that could actually take out its old high.
Be careful, you may have a few people show up here telling us how this can't be good for qcom...remember, w-cdma isn't good for qcom, they don't get the same royalties, etc, etc...
<ggg>
JNPR down on good earnings...just what we want to see now. Let's gap down and create some fear. JNPR's another good buy target on this dip.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&gui...
I don't think it will be...see PM. Probably grind down for a week, then up for a week (on the dow), all below the 20 day...perhaps taking us right near the election.
Yes it is...this may get real ugly in the next few days. I think this is it, the final shakeout before we get a huge run to 2350-2400 in Jan-Feb.
The dow is back at its lower bb...should spend some time grinding down it now IMO, but let's see if we get a huge intraday plunge in here somewhere. This would "reset" things for us.
I agree...could get some really "scary" action in the next several days. Final shakeout IMO.
I think they just needed SBC to comment after the FCC announcement, which they now have...seems like great news.
And now jdsu is up 7 cents!!! <g> Not bad, over 2% with the nas down...perhaps it'll pick up some real strength when the nas turns up again.
SBC news causing jdsu to move...probably others as well, but I'm watching jdsu.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/041014/145562_1.html
And do you think that break is likely? I do...
Posted by: mjk
In reply to: Steve who wrote msg# 19404
Date:10/13/2004 5:10:28 PM
Post #of 19464
I think if anything we're about to see some excitement to the downside. That nas 1875 number may be a bit too high. Dow below 9700 would make sense to me...I'd love to add longs down there.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=4244681
So when you said a week or two ago that you're joining the bullish side, are you bullish on the ndx, dow, both? What are your year end targets? Or forget year end...what's your target for whatever bullish scenario you were thinking of?
"dow would have to get past the multiple bottoms at 9800 and that wont be easy unless the whole market tanks"
Exactly...dow to new lows, but not the nas...the rotation into nas stocks has begun. Of course, JMO.
I think if anything we're about to see some excitement to the downside. That nas 1875 number may be a bit too high. Dow below 9700 would make sense to me...I'd love to add longs down there.
Sounds about right.
I wouldn't be surprised to see some up the next couple days before resuming down. I would be surprised if last friday's highs are taken out to the upside before this morning's lows are taken to the downside. Is that confusing enough? <g> I still expect something around 1875 within a week or two.
LOL <g> eom
Just haven't had a lot to say lately <g>...letting things play out now. I'm prepared to add some longs in the next week or two if we get that drop towards 1875, then hopefully we can finally get that up move into early 05, and sure, you can join the ride...you're a Metallica fan, gotta respect that <g>.
Yeah, I don't know how (if we even get there) we make our way to 1875...could be fast, like next week, or we could start up early next week, then down at the end, and continue that behavior for another week or two...I may investigate more this weekend but it doesn't matter to me now...just looking to buy down there if it comes.
Take it easy, have a good weekend.
Wow Steve, I'm actually more "bearish" than you now <g>. I'm sticking with this from a few weeks ago...it just took longer to get that 1975 area, and now it's coming down quicker...I thought it would be the opposite, faster up to 1975, slower down to 1875. Doesn't matter to me, it has taken a few weeks, and should be over soon...honestly, I think we could churn with bits of up, and bits of down for a little longer before getting that 1875 area. Or we could do it next week <ggg>...who knows. Then after that, we can finally head towards the jan highs.
Now go listen to some Metallica and relax <g>...I'll be listening to Tool myself.
Posted by: mjk
In reply to: Steve who wrote msg# 17797
Date:9/16/2004 11:33:40 AM
Post #of 19135
Yep nice call. But this is where the two paths should start to diverge. Within the next several days, if we take out the week's highs and 1450 (by about tues-weds we'd be peaking between 1475-1500), the pullback will be relatively shallow...actually I'm expecting about 1975->1875 (ignoring slight overshoots) on the Nas, so whatever the equivalent in ndx points is. So shallow in the sense that we'll go higher, and pullback less...and take about 3 weeks to complete.
So it's decision time right here IMO...I'm still betting this is the start of the next bull phase that takes us to 2350-2400 in Jan-Feb.
I've seen some of the low earnings estimates for the S&P500 for '05 posted here the past couple days...so while they're complaining about the slowdown in growth for '05, it's understandable given that we've come off of 4 quarters at 20%+, the first time that's happened since the 70's. I view it like this, with the 10 year yield where it is, and even with some of the "lowered" estimates we've seen the past two days, the S&P500 is roughly 30% undervalued...I put the value about 1600.
We'll see where we are this time next year.
edit: I know rates are rising, earnings are slowing...that's what we hear...but still, let's see where we go the next year. I've never seen a market peak with it this far undervalued.