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Some YEN and gold/YEN charts. YEN looks pretty good on daily/weekly also watching w/respect to gold.
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=23718723
OT - You're comparing apples to oranges w/that comparison. CUU.V isn't even at pre-feasibility. There's always more upside potential w/companies at that pt in the cycle. GSS while it's had it's share of operational problems continues to move towards a more certain conclusion of increasing production w/decreasing costs. I'm not trashing CUU.V here at all. They are two very different plays w/respect to risk/reward.
I can find plenty of potential investments that may outperform GSS over the next 2 years, but I'm far less certain of their outcome. FWIW.
Good pt, guess I"ll have to look back further. My impression is that this expansion is getting very long in the tooth so what worked before may not work this time. Credit spreads widening at the same time as CBs taking away liquidity at the same time as the CDO mess and maybe we have a different animal.
Reversion to mean w/respect to liquidity and risk taking behavior imho. More of a ST indicator I'd say as credit spreads should be wider historically. I'm guessing George might have a different take.
>> Most bulls base their bullishness only on technical analysis, seasonal analysis, and charts <<
Don't watch CNBC much, but anytime I tune in and watch a bulls speak it's always valuations relative to low interest rates FWIW. Most of the bulls say the current PE is around 15-16 on the S&P which is of course debatable, but that's the argument.
I'm more in the bearish camp myself and feel something has to give, but I've been thinking that for a while now. Thankfully I wasn't bold enough to go heavily short, just long gold from time to time. Of course that's been pretty boring of late.
Reading your credit spread posts w/interest and tend to agree. Watching other factors such as the Yen, Copper and technical factors. My basic thesis is that things revert to the norm and the excessive debt levels and spending must revert hence my continued bearishness for sometime now.
Novagold - If Teck is paying about 500 mil initially and they split the costs thereafter and the total mine cost is about 2 bil then Tech essentially paid 1.25 bil total assuming costs stay w/in estimates. More than likely it'll go up more. Seems like a basic question, but there was a lot of confusion on the CC about the total costs being paid. Didn't see my question directly addressed. Is this how you interpret? Office is closed till 1:30 PM today. Pretty tepid reaction from the market considering the good news. 4 possible explanations:
1) Mine is still a long ways from being built
2) Many technical hurdles to overcome
3) Overall sector is still near the lows
4) News isn't as good as we think
Seems undervalued to me here again and relatively low risk, but not in a hurry to get back in given the overall sector weakness. We may be at a good buying op now or we may still have downside to 640-630 POG or less. Hard to say.
>> Mineral Ridge, I shake my head here because I have said this over and over, 1 million dollars and 18 months or less and MR is online. <<
Well in talking w/IR several month back they were very quick to clarify that it would be more than 1 mil. More like 6-8 mil was their best guess. Not sure exactly how the estimate breaks down though.
I do know that they will change the method of mining used at MR previously as it wasn't economic and went against the original FS as I understand it. New method should lower costs.
The first thing to do is to get out of debt regardless of what opportunities exist short term. Moly prices may not last. Pay off debt, build up some cash and then they can talk about other ops. They won't be out of debt till at least Q1 2008. A little early to be talking Mineral Ridge until they are at least at full production.
From memory capital outlay is about 8 mil to get Mineral Ridge started again and it's probably at least 1.5-2 years away at this pt.
Notice any difference?
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=18347513
"KRY is sitting on what could be the largest undeveloped gold mine in the entire world."
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=18364275
"one of the largest undeveloped gold mines in the entire world."
-------------------
I know it's slight, but it's signifant. Can't even admit you're wrong even when it's spelled out can you?
Plenty of mines larger than KRY or nearly so and better situated as investments.
Last post. You're not worth the trouble.
Actually that would be because I spend more time doing research, investing, trading than I do spamming/promoting (like yourself). I have no desire simply to get a lot of "bookmarks". I'd rather have cash in my account.
You didn't address my previous point about your faulty memory, but that's typical spammer/basher tactic to change the topic vs focus on facts.
Do you have any memory of what you just wrote? You said "THE largest". Now you change it to "one of the largest" and try to say Basser got it wrong?
KRY story is real. Wonder how long it'll take to rework things? Does a no-nothing momo spammer have the patience to wait it out?
You, your investment style and your stupid pic are utterly pathetic.
KRY down. As usual it pays to do some research other than just doing your typical pump and dump. Loser.
New 52 week high on GSS, breaking 4 by a good amount. Looking to accumulate more on a pullback to the breakout pt, but already fully loaded so not going to get too greedy ahead of earnings/biox news next week.
I can appreciate that. Thanks for the reply.
What internals do you look at to see if money is flowing in or out? (if you don't mind sharing).
I ask because different people have somewhat different opinions/sources.
Well instead of calling the IR dept at GSS I'll skip the middleman and go right to the source for now on and just ask you <g>. Ann doesn't know sh*t. She first gave me the impression around 40-50 mil. Then yesterday I swear she appeared to be reading the document and saying 65 mil. Now it looks like 85 mil. Absolutely f*cking ridiculous. Still a relatively fast close considering the size of the offering. Also reduces odds that we'll be stolen for a small premium from a major near term. I'm still looking for 6+ this year with gold staying under 700. Beyond 700 maybe 8+. But once again management has learned nothing. I can't believe these guys can keep their jobs year after year.
I'll have to ask Rob, but it would appear that they have enough workers for 3 access pts now and are really just looking for one more crew to get to full production. Given how many workers they've hired of late it doesn't appear to be a problem to find the remaining workers. Was nice to also see the mill operate on a continuing basis. Looking more and more likely that they'll meet their goal of full production by spring/early summer.
Definately great news. Should be enough to carry us back over .33 today/next few days and maybe over the next few weeks back to .40 (top of channel).
Thanks for the reply. Hadn't really followed them much in the past so will look into further. Plenty of multi-baggers in the resource/gold sector going out a few years, just looking for the one's with the best near term catalysts (6-12 months) and best risk/reward.
MMG is mostly Zinc correct? Do you think Zinc prices will stay strong if the sh*t really starts to hit the fan next year? Or is this looking out 2-5 years?
GSS - Well not sure I have much confidence anymore even when I talk directly to IR. Ann is completely incompetent. Still planning on holding, but this is very frustating. Now I'm being told that it'll be $65 mil US. She said the ave share price will close by the end of today so I'd expect a PR in the next 1-2 days w/this info. She couldn't quote me the TSX reg that required the initial PR to go out w/out the amount of the offering/shares. She said she'd look into it and get back to me - yea right. Higher than I expected, but not ridiculous. Offering is supposed to close March 1st. Guessing they already have some big blocks of shares accounted for. Overall doesn't appear that GSS management has learned a damn thing in the last year other than staying unhedged. Congrats to management they now pass the 1st grade in mining school.
At first blush that's what I thought as well. Again per IR dept they had to start the clock w/respect to ave share price over xx numbers of days prior to offering. Today was the first day hence the announcement. I didn't get good answer on this other than it's a TSX regulation. I can try to find out more. Again I was given the impression the PR had to be done in this manner. If not I'll be pissed as well.
Secondly, it does appear that BIOX is overbudget. Just a few weeks ago everything was fine. This part of the release was not handled well I agree. However, do you delay full production due to cost overruns or do you proceed ASAP knowing that while higher gold prices are likely IT, LT anything can happend ST. Again some of the cash is being used for the power plant which wasn't anticipated a year ago, but will be an excellent addition to removing future downside/power issues. They again could have handled this better by stating this up front when they first decided to build it.
Right now I'm willing to give GSS the benefit of the doubt, but obviously if I find out that it was not required to issue the PR w/out the shares involved I'll be rather pissed. Either the IR dept is grossly misinformed or they just plain lied.
GSS needs to do a much better job of managing expectations. They certainly have done a very poor job in the past w/respect to secondaries. Given how close they are to expanding production/reducing costs and putting most of their power issues behind them I'm willing to cut them some slack on this offering, but we'll see the #'s of shares and why this was done in this manner. Value stocks are priced this way for a reason. If they did everything right they wouldn't be a good value most likely.
Well one is their staff geologist and the other is a security guard so essentially 2 people. Fer. Fer. seemed intelligent to a degree, but also somewhat out of touch w/reality.
I hope you're not right. If so it would certainly signal to me that GSS doesn't give a rat's ass about shareholders and has learned very little over the last year. Still a good value either way, but whether I hold just for the next year or long term will probably be determined to a large extent by the size of the offering.
BTW, assuming a stable gold price (550-650) for the next year what are your fav. picks?
The resource update will be more of confirming existing resources vs new resources. I think it could still add some support to the stock, but not expecting a big pop. Down the road if they do some exploratory drilling this could be a huge catalyst.
As for WEX their behavior doesn't make sense unless you consider it's just 4 individuals all in different locations and their primary holder in a nursing home.
GSS - It's certainly possible, but I think the amount will be closer to $40-50 mil US or approx C$45-55. IR dept wouldn't tell me an exact amount, but based on the information I got I think this will be pretty close. If it's much higher than 50 mil US I'll be disappointed otherwise I think the market can absorb this amount fairly quick.
Based on talking w/her I also had a few other observations I posted on the yahoo baord:
We'd obviously get the best share price return if GSS self funded and gold stayed at these levels or higher.
What GSS is doing here is ensuring that even if gold dips to sub $600 or sub $550 again that they have enough working capital to expand production, lower cost and ensure adequate power going forward. ST this sucks, but it really does take even more risk out of the stock in the event that gold does dip again.
Nobody know for sure when gold is going $800 again, but I feel like many here it's just a question of when. Maybe the next 6 months, maybe 1-2 years. Either way GSS will be hitting on all cylinders by that time. At $800 gold this is a 10-15+ stock. I can wait.
It would have been nice for them to wait for this stock to break $4 and let it run to 5+ before announcing this dillution, but if gold breaks down first back to the low $600's we'd be mad if they did it then.
Again it's all about risk/reward. This was probably a prudent move on their part.
------------------------------------------------------
1) Would you rather have hedging or dillution? The company's bank would have required hedging to borrow more money. The company chose the lesser of two evils.
2) The total amount of the offering will probably be 40-50 mil. The high numbers that shorts are throwing out are bogus. Approx 10 mil for power plant, 15 mil for Biox, 10 mil working capital and maybe 5 mil for underground.
3) PR was put out w/out #of shares due to TSX regulations requiring that the offering price be determined by ave # of days trading. I'll try to find out when they'll be posting the number of shares and get back to the board.
Again I think the company is doing the prudent thing here. They could have self-funded everything, but it would have taken longer and they need the cash to build the power plant now. As for the Biox I'd rather spend a little bit of extra cash now and get up to full production ASAP. The other money required is relatively small. This removes even more certainty for those willing to hold 6 months plus. Stop bitching and use this opportunity.
-----------------------------
In spite of this secondary I still find GSS very compelling here. ST not many traders are going to pile in until the number of shares are known in the secondary. IR dept is supposed to call me back soon w/an approx date of when this will be announced. I'll be calling daily to pester her. GSS is currently my biggest position so I'm baised FWIW. It's one of the few gold plays of it's size that can double from current levels in the next 12 months with gold staying under $675-650 imho. If there are more I'd love to hear about them.
General update, workers, WEX etc.
Spoke w/Rob Martin again. I asked about the workers again and what sort of progress they're making. Per my previous conversations a few weeks back they needed 9-12 new miners to get to full production. He just got back from vacation today, but according to what he's heard they now have 7 new ones since I last talked to him. He didn't confirm it himself yet though. I asked if he'd put out a PR and he didn't think it was material, but he'd maybe try to put it on the website. I explained some of the shareholder concerns regarding this issue so maybe he'll put more effort into updating the website.
I also did some digging on the dispute from Jan 4th. Read eventhing on the Raging Bull board as well as spoke with somebody from Wex (Fer. Fer.) for 30+ min and then spoke again with Rob afterwards. After speaking w/both sides I tend to agree that WEX is seriously impaired or Rob is lying thru his teeth in a big way - not a simple misunderstanding. Facts seem to support GPXM/Rob. I also feel very confortable even if this issue gets delayed (most likely since WEX doesn't want to go to binding arbitration - GPXM does). Both share prices are hurt due to delay, but since WEX doesn't have any legs to stand on their only tactic is to delay. Thankfully the LLC agreement has timetables for this, but I think this issue will take months to resolve, not weeks.
Worst case was put forth by somebody on the Raging Bull board. WEX could somehow shutdown production in an effort to force GPXM into BK until the matter is resolved. Lots of problems w/that scenario
1) BK would be very messy. No guarantee WEX would increase stake in Ashdown.
2) Moly prices may not remain high. In WEX's best interest to get into full production ASAP and keep it there (even if they lose 9.5%)
3) LLC agreement spells out binding arbitration. They can sue all they want, but the courts will just throw it back.
4) It would most likely require a 20-30 mil bond being posted by WEX to account for potential damages being done by shutting down production assuming they could even find a legit reason.
5) Lastly, GPXM is 60% owner and operator. Nothing has happened thus far and I don't expect it to.
WEX will fight this tooth and nail. It could get much uglier as WEX's credibility is very much on the line here - not to mention 9.5%. However, ultimately I don't think WEX can do much. It's just a question of time and what sort of monetary award GPXM will get. It's possible that the Arbitrator will rule that 9.5% is unjust for a payment that's only late by 2 days, but since this clause was added per WEX's request it doesn't seem likely. Hard to say. Either way I don't like uncertainty as much as the next person, but I don't think this is going to be a big issue going forward. Short of the worst case scenario I don't see much downside for GPXM w/respect to late payment so I think they played it right in asking for the 9.5% even if it hurts both share prices for a time.
When I asked Fer. Fer. of WEX - pretending that I was interested in investing, but wanted to know their overhead was he couldn't tell me. So are started throwing around some numbers and he said it would be closer to a half mil. If I were a WEX investor it's hard to have much confidence when they can't even tell you what their salaries will be once the Ashdown LLC starts throwing off cash. Given their past behavior/irrationality who knows what they'll consider reasonable compensation. Not a WEX investor myself, but just found his response strange.
What do you consider a considerable amount?
Yea trading a little better. Volume has decreased of late so maybe the selling has mostly abated. I'll feel better when we get a close over .33 for two or more days.
Re: Worker issues:
In speaking w/IR again I confirmed that they do have enough workers to access 2 pts on the decline at once. They also have enough workers currently to create a second level, but the process would be faster w/more workers. They are looking for about 9-12 new miners total for full production. Again per previous PRs having enough workers for 2 access pts is important as they've said they expect to significantly ramp up production w/2 access pts. It won't quite remove the need for Fusion, but it'll come close.
The permits required for housing are just basic construction permits and they are just planning mobile homes. So this part is a non-issue.
Again, per IR about 3-4 acces pts are needed to insure full production. Will have to see how many miners they need 1-2 months from now to determine the progress they've made. Again compared to everything else they have overcome I don't think this is a very big issue going forward.
In theory I like your approach better w/respect to PR, but in practice they have to protect their legal butt. Again compared to other companies I've followed I give them good marks w/respect to PR and their website. Most companies would not bother to update their website w/so much material let alone inbetween quarterly reports.
TA wise we need to break and close above .34 for a few days and we should test .40 again or the top of the channel. Once the channel is broken to the upside a retest of the highs will come pretty fast imho. Right now we're still in no man's land. I did add more here, but until the selller(s) is cleared I'm not going to add in bulk since I already have a good sized position. But at these prices the risk/reward is becoming quite compelling.
I can see why they didn't put out a PR on their Jan 16th PR. The Jan 16th PR could have been clearer though. When I first read it I didn't read it the way it was explained to me from the IR dept. It's pure conjecture that this is causing the stock to drop. I agree on getting all the info out there and letting everyone decide. Based on other companies I've seen I'd actually give GPXM high marks in this regard. Mistakes have been made, but their website and the effort has been pretty good imho.
I never said that shares were being used to retire all their debt. I'm refering solely to this PR.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070116/latu062.html?.v=79
Again these are not new shares, but rather they were re-issued and then likely sold post this PR. Again I talked w/IR directly on this issue and this was THEIR RESPONSE. I'm fairly long GPXM here. I just view this as one of the reasons why the stock has been weak of late. It might be the main one, it might not. Either way I view it as temporary.
Just noticed thanks for mentioning it. Stock was heading down weeks/months prior to the news. Could be something more, but right now I'm not going to take this as big news. Nothing has hit the news wires yet. When it does we'll probably see more ST selling. I'm still planning on adding more when we get a confirmed bottom.
http://www.secinfo.com/duhPy.u2a.htm
It's possible it's manipulation, but more than likely it's just impatient/ignorant/overleveraged longs here. I can't imagine too many shorts here. I consider it a nice opportunity, but I gotta wait for a confirmed bottom since I added back too early once they got their final permits.
As I said previously I wouldn't be surprised to see a trip to the low .20's before this is over, even if it's just intraday. Bottom may come here, but nothing convincing TA wise imo. Gonna wait before I add again. Have plenty if I miss this op. Most likely scenario is an IT/LT bottom around .25.
Worker issue (cont). You do raise some good pts and I don't mean to say that it's trivial. Just that compared to everything else that could go wrong to me this seems minor by comparison. I need to verify w/IR, but I believe they've just begun to try to scale up hiring of miners just recently so while the market for miners is tight I don't feel there's cause for alarm just yet. I probably will press IR more on this issue though to make sure I've considered every angle.
I think of all the problems you can have w/a mine...
1) low grades
2) no permits
3) political risk
4) lawsuits
5) hedging
6) illegal mining
7) high costs/unprofitable mining
Plenty of others. My point is that at some price labor is solvable. When is the last time you ever heard of a mine failing to increase production solely due to labor. Strikes in SA comes to mine, but I think that's a completely different situation than GPXM. I respectfully stand by my early post. I think finding labor isn't that big of an issue. Maybe they have to pay 25% more than usual for their workers, but given their overall costs I don't see this as a big problem. They need 9-12 more miners. They cost approx 75-100K. Add another 25%. No biggie. They may have to add housing as well. This is certainly bigger ST, but it's mostly a one-time fee. Again so much risk has been removed in the last 3 months. Don't know why these issues are considered so daunting.
True no new shares were added to retire the debt, but rather they were re-issued and then allowed to be sold. Call the IR debt directly before you accuse me of making an inaccurate statement. When I asked the IR dept just a few days ago why they thought the share price was languishing here that was their first response.
Just trying to add to the discussion. Gets boring if the only people that can post are one's that agree w/you on everything. Now I will make inaccurate statements from time to time, but it's certainly not intentional.
Agree w/most of your sentiments, but feel that the current weakness is due more to the stock getting ahead of itself at .55 almost a year ago when there was substantially more risk. That and the additional shares of late to retire this debt.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070116/latu062.html?.v=79
Current management has done a good job imo. The biggest problem was not making it explicit enough when full production would start. Many including myself thought that once production began it would be closer to full production. Just some people getting impatient, but that creates opportunities for those of us who are patient. IR stated full production would probably come sometime between April and June. I'm guessing closer to June since everything takes longer than you expect. Right now biggest issues are getting enough workers. Not a bad problem to have.