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hey joe, i bot some in 32s and 33s; possible hammer bottom on weekly; looks good for at least some bounce;
also got some 69ish FCX
i agree;
gold should be plunging into mid 700s;
EEV going parabolic - i may have to take profits
ive been playing puts on individual miners but that play seems faded for now. maybe its the actual metal that needs to drop more. believe it or not gold is green now while miners are getting clobbered - some breaking to new lows;
dollar looks to test that 80.30ish level; overseas markets getting crushed - may cause even more flight to the dollar
DZZ is double short gold;
for fun check out EEV - double short emerging markets and
gazprom and lukoil; its flying today
gold still dealing with 187 pt descending triangle with a bottom @ 846-850ish; dollar BO on august monthly; next resist.
looks like 80.30ish low from dec 04
sorry, I dont. i remember recently some article suggesting whoever was doing the hedging at southwest was doing a wonderful job. i just watch the trading action and occasionally read articles about fundamentals. in addition to fuel costs, it appears the airlines have cut back on flights, labor expense and other areas. if fuel falls sharply it may give them an added boost with the other cost cutting measures.
i dont know about the fundies of CAL but it has been a wonderful trader for me. the south american airlines appear to have some decent fundamentals working for them. im headed to argentina shortly and will be interested to see what is going on.
for some reason (logic aside) the financials have recently received a bid when oil falls; it would seem logical that MCD and WMT would also benefit
Im also trading DTO, DUG and DZZ as counter oil trades
nice trade; i'm playing small positions from 14s; watching the dive on ABK and nibbling
i think there is an insurance conference next week in NY
GS bot mortgage assets from the largest bank in puerto rico.
yeah, I've watched it drop $2 on almost no vol in a matter of minutes; relatively speaking, it appears to be well run;
i like it around 35ish; it was upgraded on wed.
it does trade crazy
if it ever takes out 42.5ish, it should fly (old hi s in 70s)
CAL is a wonderful trader; it has quick and direct inverse correlation to oil; better than DUG or DTO; if we correct more in oil, it could shoot to 20 fast
take a look at GOL may be forming a W bottom in mid 8s
CPA is also a nice trader with good volatility
they will receive 741 million in advance premiums
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080829/mbia_analyst_note.html?.v=1
my guess is that after the huge bounce (50%) some started to short; that gap up from 12ish was powerful; almost looks like
an inverse H&S;
must be terribly frustrating to be short financials these days
nothing but bad news and yet they continue to go up
thurs morn there appeared to be heavy buying even after the gap open (several 1 mil sh blocks); i bot some in the 14s this morning; if it can break thru 16.50 resistance area from beginning of the year, it could run to 20ish; theres some gaps to watch of course but it has had powerfull mo;
GS was green during the carnage this morning - a fair tell
thanks. been busy with work and church/missions. went to rwanda and heading for patagonia soon with saddleback.
this market is squirrely; have to leave early so i took profits
FYI - someone started buying SKF quick; there was a gap near 125ish so i took alittle; GS not holding that well and I am skeptical re LEH buyout rumor.
best to you and the gang; hope to be back more in the future
dollar is popping 60cents
hey Joe, I have been nervously buying the dips to the 18s last 2 days; there are gaps @ 20.25 and 21.48ish;
BAC has also been a great trader - ex-div (almost 9% if its not reduced) 9/3
I bot GS on the dive yesterday cause I figured they are ripping it up on the crazy commodity/dollar trades and low 150s look interesting;
buffet reportedly increased stake in WFC - that should help
look at a weekly of gold; breakdown of 187 pt descending
triangle; base is 846-850; with yesterdays vigorous rally it
only reached 840ish; until that base is taken out the triangle
is still in play with potential to 663ish; however the US dollar did stall at the trend - 77ish
may 1 abandoned baby gap filled today @ 90.31; all this gloom and doom and yet USO did ok; i bot the gap area; there is still
a gap from april around 85;
i keep hearing about demand destruction - still waiting for it to arrive in socal; more traffic then ever and plenty of new hummers and SUVs
dive in oil more likely the result of being overbot and hedge funds getting margin calls on the decline; and the amazing dollar rally; the world economies may slow down but I doubt people will stop using energy; wars still to be fought over oil
breakout and no one notices; channel from 112 to 97ish is broken
first target 127ish; good volume on the BO; nice and steady
uptrend; GD also showing some life
weekly looks good; 50 wk moving up; gap @ 110.71
they also engage in serious and abusive censorship on the yahoo finance boards; anything positive about pres bush or the US and they outright delete the posts; amazing they allow and seem to encourage obscenity and the most vile material; they have druids that sit there and monitor posts
and delete or take down anything they deem a threat to liberals
yahoo much more evil than google IMO
DE earnings on wed
AUY inverse H&S still playing out; target 17.45 or so
i try to spend as much time as possible in wyoming and montana
gold acting like another 50 pt cut coming
OT fire relief
if any of you wish to contribute to fire victims, our church is
processing aid; 100% goes to the victims; click on fire relief;
fire came relatively close to our campus; i was at a meeting late sunday and when i came out to the parking lot could see the flames
http://www.saddleback.com/40days/index.html
the announcement by POT about sales suspension because of the flooded mine in russia of a competitor is an important event;
POT traded 17 million +shs today; i just got lucky buying the post earning morning dip and flipped it before i saw the news and got back in; the world is a hungry place and the fertilizer market is becoming essential; china is presently in negotiations with russia for potash/fertilizer. BG also had nice earnings today; also water is working, see VE, i also own some AGU and MON and am waiting for DE to come in, along with AG (reports tuesday); took profits on CNH
just be prepared for moves - a 5 to 15 pt move is nothing.
USO looks like 74 will be tested
31.5 gone for now
MCD keeps chugging ahead
not anymore; fertilizer bottleneck; added back POT on the dip
and AGU and BG; food prices will increase; china is the biggest user
ag plays should soar
POT suspends sales because of russian flood for competitor and the stock goes nuts
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN2563315520071025?rpc=44
this market is nuts; bot POT at 98 this morning after sell off;
earnings were good but not as expected; for no apparent reason it just bounced above 113; i'm taking profits
BG had great earnings and has now sold off
BG earnings double; guidance upped; up 9 bucks pre-market
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7bDCB1BD0F-F46C-4772-9422-FD5702DB6E1C%7d&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo
12 analysts upped price targets; they will do well this christmas
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/street-raises-bets-amazon-despite/story.aspx?guid=%7BA13D3C6A%2DADBE%2D49C2%2D961A%2D6C5922274FC2%7D
ICE - earnings in the morning; popped with CMEs earnings today
so some of the good news is in
BG - earnings in the morning
nice move cy; i sold late yesterday and am starting to nibble back; dont understand the selloff except for the strong move late yesterday; theres a gap @ 69.53; have some SLB from 95ish
and watching with caution
sold SPWR on the spike this morning
nibbled some VLO this morning right before inventories
merrill news and doom and gloom sets up for a likely rate cut next week; hope we have another plunge down
RIMM china; bingo
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7b92D827B2-CE35-45BE-B883-6B8A263D72C3%7d&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo
ascending triangle
i agree but this market is whacky; SLB repairing alittle;
AMZN surging and i dont own enough;
dont forget tomorrow inventory #s and COP plus NOV pre-market
BG earnings thurs; been in a range between 102-110