alive and kicking
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Looks like a campaign of lies to me.
mouton,
Thanks. I am confused a bit about CD. What percentage of the marker are the saying RVNC will get in that indication? As far as aesthetics, can they really believe sales of filler and Daxxify are linked in terms of percentage of the market? Shouldn't each be modeled separately?
As far as stock price, I bought some last week at the "bargain" price of $10.75. The stock is reacting today as if the FDA just failed to approve Daxxify in any indication. Quite amazing.
...trading has worse tax consequences than investing. If someone feels they can do better overall by trading and paying that higher tax bill
It ain't over till the fat lady sings.- Yogi Berra
Mouton,
I know it was from a retrospective study not from a trial. It is the best metric we have right now. The death rate was 2.4%-3.4% in the two untreated groups.
As Dew pointed out, EDP-235 would have to show non-inferiority. PFE clearly thinks newer and better drugs than Paxlovid are needed.
I think RBCs point is with vaccine, less harmful covid variant and natural immunity, hospitalization rate is lower than before, thus it’s harder than before to show stats significance on the same endpoint. (Reduce hospitalization rate)
So for 235, the regulatory pathway isn’t clear for them. That’s probably one of the reason 235 get discounted by the market even it seems to be superior drug
Hope ENTA can work out the details with FDA and update the market soon
From RBC: "the U.S. regulatory path currently emphasizes demonstration of outcomes benefits (hospitalization, mortality, etc.) and this would be difficult to show in the current environment, barring a major mutation."
The Fed funds rate is 5.5%.
Why would it not be next week like most serious companies who report inside a couple of weeks after finished Q?
Clearly, the 7% relates to the risk-free rate and not mortgage rates. I assume the 7% jokers mentioned came from Jamie Dimon's comments from earlier in the week.
IMHO - Q3 sales came in strong as many big MedSpas are moving ahead with Daxi/RHA do to higher profit margins with these products versus Botox/Juvederm.
I really doubt there are that many people selling $ENTA because of the fed rate... if anything, $ENTA has 400mm cash, high rate isn't a bad thing for them.
Sentiment is lousy but great value here.
Right, your post confirmed that there is no difference between long and short term capital gains in so far as whether something is considered an investment.
My post was accurate. I am not sure what you think you have added or have disputed what I posted.
You may have a different definition of investing than I do. For example, this from Wikipedia mentions expectation of capital gains. There is no differentiation between short and long term capital gains.
A capital gains tax is a tax on the profit from the sale of an asset. How the capital gain is taxed depends on filing status, taxable income and how long the asset was owned before selling.
The capital gains tax rate is 0%, 15% or 20% on most assets held for longer than a year. Capital gains taxes on assets held for a year or less correspond to ordinary income tax brackets: 10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32%, 35% or 37%.
"Investing is about buying low" The goal posts on what is low keeps moving, that is the problem with buy low and hold.
I am certain that rich people will have money for glabellar lines and crow feet therapeutic interventions and someday the therapuetic use in CD and any other condition where botox is used, all sorts of musculoskeletal disorders may be possible, but for now buying low and holding is only for those who can afford to be underwater for an extended period.
One of the big arguements for RVNC was that people world wide will have more money and will want to look good, I think the world is moving toward a state of just holding on to what they have for as long as they can.
The goal posts keep moving for RVNC, ENTA and many other biotechs 2B+ was probably what most were thinking as an early growth prospect valuation, now the chatter is 1B. Any correction could be long off and until then "holding the bag"
Blind faith when rates are heading to 7 is questionable advice
enta's lead over pfe in covid has vanished - that could be putting pressure on enta shares
I posted recently that PFE accrued their study ahead of schedule
Hopefully PFE will provide results so we can compare - I had speculated that at this point potential partners were probably waiting to see data from PFE and or Shionogi before partnering so at least you get some data sooner if you ask me
OT: So this is where the market is. The jobs reports is due tomorrow and according to this analyst, a good report will be bad for stocks and a bad report will be bad for stocks. He somehow didn't say that an average report will be bad for stocks.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-hot--or-cold--jobs-report-friday-could-be-bad-for-stocks-100034433.html
I will bet an insubstantial amount of money- say the value of a RVNC share
Typo? Dysphagia is difficulty swallowing.
IMHO - you will see aesthetic practices come up with their our dilution of Daxi and priced accordingly. A practice could price Daxi equal to Botox but use a dilution of 1.5 units of Daxi to 1 units of Botox. Daxi will give the patient an additional 6 weeks of duration vs Botox and the practice makes more profit than Botox. Remember , Daxi onset is 24 hours versus Botox at 14 days. So with Daxi, a patient gets additional duration on both sides. Both the patient and the practice wins!
This will be a competitive advantage to the practitioner to offer all the additional benefits of Daxi ( 24 hr onset, improved skin tone, longer duration) at the same price. Patients will switch and once they use Daxi, they will never go back to Botox!
Vertex Pharmaceuticals presented longer-term data on patients dosed in Parts A and B of its Phase 1/2 clinical trial of VX-880, an investigational stem cell-derived, fully differentiated islet cell therapy in people with type 1 diabetes, or T1D, with impaired hypoglycemic awareness and severe hypoglycemic events, or SHEs..............The two patients with at least 12 months of follow-up after VX-880 infusion, who were therefore evaluable for the study's primary efficacy endpoint, met the criteria for the primary endpoint of elimination of SHEs between Day 90 and Month 12 with an HbA1c less than7.0%.
The first patient achieved insulin independence at Day 270 through Month 24. This is a patient who has had T1D for nearly 42 years and prior to trial enrollment was on 34 units of daily exogenous insulin. The second patient achieved insulin independence at Day 180 through Month 12. VX-880 has been generally well tolerated in all patients dosed to date.
CD47 blockers are not dead yet as ALXO surges today on data release.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alx-oncology-reports-positive-interim-100000174.html
The market is thinking
Let's see Q3 (and report it quickly as they already should know the sales numbers and putting together finacials should not take more than 2 weeks).
The analyst says lower rates of hospitalization from both COVID-19 may reduce the Phase III feasibility, partnerability, and out-year revenue prospects of EDP-235.
In addition, lower hospitalization rates for respiratory syncytial virus may increase risk of additional enrollment delays for EDP-938, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Mouton,
That is RVNC accurately presenting what the clinical trial data showed. I was referring to what sales reps were saying and I don't think they were claiming 6 month efficacy for everyone and that they suddenly stopped talking about potentially longer lasting effects because Daxxify didn't work as Cosmetic"MD" claimed.
The biggest selling point was the longer duration & now CosmeticMD is saying sales personnel have been instructed to downplay the longer term efficacy. Its hard for an individual investor or patient to know what's true or not.
Who is saying that you need 1.5x or 2x more Daxxify than Botox to achiever the same results? The clinical trial data showed the median result for Daxxify was twice as long as Botox. Let’s not play the units game when the units aren’t comparable.
an echo chamber of insane people who have no idea what they are talking about.
Where did you get the $250-300 million sales estimate number for the first year?
What is very telling about CosmeticMDs lack of reliability is that he first claimed that in his anonymous Facebook group, that Daxxify was almost universally thought of as not being a good product. Now he provides a small anonymous group of less than 30 people and 50% thought Daxxify was worth it. I would be very happy if Daxxify took half the cosmetic market.
I also just read the nonsensical but very telling claim that a few injectors in the clinical trial weren’t impressed with Daxxify. The phase 3 trials were blinded so how could they be disappointed in Daxxify when they didn’t know what patients were using what?