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Speaking of Deep Thoughts...
How deep did the water get by your place?
I heard on the radio today that 8" fell there yesterday and then more this morning.
Glub!
Hi Tom!
I still like my formulae better.
They mathematically line up better with Lichello and easily accomodate Minimum $.
Formulae are easy in Excel as well.
They were worked out with paper, pencil and calulator at lunch over a number of weeks. My version of thought experiments.
Hi FO.
The LD-AIM spreadsheet shows how to replicate the Lichello Formula within a spreadhseet.
In addition, it allows for minimum $ without compromising the logic.
The only inputs needed are PC, # Shares owned and your specific settings (Safe, Minimum % and/or Minimum $.
It will calculate your Hold Zone correctly using those settings which can vary on either the Sell or Buy sides.
Here's a snip from it that explains step-by-step.
You can ignore the 'virtual' references if you're not running your program as LD-AIM.
Download the spreadsheet to snag the actual Excel formulas.
Hope this helps.
Hi Tom.
Hi again FO...
Stock Selection is the same.
However, since you're not putting as much cash out up front buying the intial core position, I suppose one might be a little more brave in buying volatile stocks, but it is not function of LD-AIM. Many of my programs ove the years have been much more 'sedate', and still successful.
Have you read the explanation behind LD-AIM?
I ask because the objective is not necessarily to sell out at a profit.
It can and does happen, but not by design. And, not as often as one might think. Much of it depends on how many consecutive 'Sells' you want to buy initially. I tend to do 5 currently.
Classic AIM will never instruct you to sell out. The math behind it won't do it. But because LD-AIM doesn't require you to buy all of the initial position, it can sell out.
Thanks for the kind words on managing 15+ equities. That I have that many is by design. And is due to use of LD-AIM. It allowed me to diversify across a broad set of securities without needing to constrain myself to diversified funds or etf's.
It does this by not requiring as big of actual cash outlays for the intial Buy.
And, it is not a head spinning effort at all.
I probably spend no more than 10 minutes per day overall.
Yup!
As it happened, I watched the infomercial one sleepless night here in Texas. I was very intrigued but didn't give it much thought afterward.
Coincidentally, Andy (my father-in-law) did the same in Wisconsin, and he was intrigued enough to actually purchase it.
Some months later he came to Texas for a visit and gave me the whole package, and asked me to 'find the flaw in this becasue I can't.
The rest is history.
scour the internet.
Tried that a few years ago.
Never found it.
Infomercial
his infomercials in the '80s when he was selling those workbooks/tapes for maybe $400? Does that sound right?
If memory serves, Andy bought it for $350.
He gave me the 3 ring binder (which is filled with copies of typewritten pages BTW). But he 'misplaced' the cassettes. More than likely he gave them to his brother who would re-use them; record music on them.
You're welcome.
We are a 'Friendly Bunch'!
Thanks for noticing.
Stop by any time.
Hi Frugal.
The purpose of the work tables is only to calculate/establish 2 values:
Intital Actual Shares to Buy based on your Sell side inputs (if transacted consecutively).
Initial Cash Reserve you will need to set aside in order to support your Buy Side inputs (if transacted consecutively).
The workbook only does those 2 things.
It was not built to serve as an ongoing tracking or next transaction calculator.
The resultant Sell/Buy prices, if consecutively transacted would occur at those prices, but as soon as you execute one on either side, the next transaction price on the other side would change.
So, the answer to your question is no.
...if my stock drops to 8.15 where I buy 123 shares, I would have to wait until 12.5 to sell 100 shares OR wait until 13.89 to sell 90 shares...
Assume that you did indeed purchase those 123 shares @ 8.15.
You now own 1123 shares
This is a $1000 buy, adding 500 to your Portfolio Control (now @ 10500).
So your next Buy would be 130 shares @ 7.67 as in the table (consecutive from the buy just made).
But your next Sell would be 112 shares @ 11.69. This is becasue it is on the other side and your portfolio control and # of shares has changed.
Using the Calcs example tab, this becomes clear...
I left those worktables visible in the worksheet to help explain the concept when I originally introduced LD-AIM back in 2003. But like I said, they were never intended to serve as an AIM tracking vehicle.
I hope this helps! Feel free to ask any questions you may have.
We're always ready to pitch in in that regard.
Re: Fat cash reserves
Re: Doing our part.
Thanks Tom.
You're right. Cash/Equity bars are more telling by month.
But they still are pretty volatile as they move through time.
As a matter of fact, the steep slope over the last 24 months is almost entirely due to the change in cash as one would expect.
I full well remember how many times you've mentioned that the time to run out of cash is at the bottom. And, like you've also said, before you started using AIM, that your approach ran out of cash well before Lichello (pumping the brake).
When I overlay the total market index to the bars I can see that I ran out of cash some months before the bottom.
As for diversification, I agree, but I'm not where I want to be yet on that front. I actually have 2 or 3 fewer programs than I did a year ago. Somewhere in the 25-30 programs feels more right. I have 17 right now and only one of those is an ETF (SLV).
February Results for GIEW
Much better than January where we lost 2%.
In February, I got the first 2 Sells in as many days on my newest program AVG (Security Software for desktops, laptops and mobile). That was nice to see.
NVDA and JAKK both had a Sell as well and they had been collecting dust back in the warehouse.
I still have a lot of cheap shares of JAKK since they were given up for dead last year. Q4 results came in above estimates, so I guess life springs eternal.
Hope so anyway.
Note that I trailed the market indices last month by a little.
I attribute that to the 36% Cash level.
But I'm cool with that. Because when the downturns come as they did in early February, I'll be able to take advantage.
Here are my charts that show the 'Life of Giew'
Hope y'all have a great March!
Came in like a lion didn't it?
PS: Just got my first Sell for March today. Nice 43% LIFO Gain on BX.
I know.
I was just kidding.
Still nice results.
RE:March 2014 results
Hey buddy! Nice results!
Especially 29 days in advance.
How'd February turn out?
Yeah.
Heard something about this on the radio on the way in this morning.
I think the Hong Kong broker may have made off with all the real money his accounts had in bitcoins.
Twas bound to happen I think.
Hi fouwaaz and welcome to AIM-land.
I suggest you follow Tom's advice in his response and spend the time reviewing all of the posts in the AIM Q&A link he provided.
It will be time well spent.
Hi JD:
BitCoins
Still a mystery to me why anyone would own or trade these.
It's not like they're backed by anything or insured against maleficient intent or action as happened within the context of this story.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-26187725
Like I said. This is way past my brain's capacity to rationalize. And I'm a risk taker most times.
So will you pin it to the top and delete the pin on the old one?
Thanks Jon.
Maybe Tom will get a chance to pin the latest graphic?
Hi Jon.
Back to that old 63.79 eh?
Last week's 65.?? certainly was timely!
Oof!
Thanks for the kind words Clive
That Standard Deviation # must be why you've suggested that one could do well by AIM-ing Giew!
Very interesting comparison.
For the record, my results are always Total Value, so they are after commissions and fees with dividends going into cash reserve.
These portfolios are 'somewhat similar' in that the portfolio contents are actively managed?
Thanks again.
Terrific results Tom!
My program on GILD ran for less than 3 years with a total return of 56%.
GILD continued to run since then and has split as well.
I wonder how much of the ETF you have is GILD?
...seems to have quieted down the AIM Users a bit.
Hi Tom.
Oh, I don't know about that.
I check in every day and comment when warranted.
I've only had 3 transactions so far this month, but that's after 13 in December. Total Value is +0.8% as of the moment. Still at 35% Cash.
OK. Thanks K
HI K
Hiya K
Looks like you had a good year. Congrats.
Does the Value per Share number represent the overall value of the UBA (Share count constant)?
RE: AIM S&P Real since 1871
Hi Clive and thanks.
On your S&P since 1871, I think it very interesting, especially regarding the relative performance given half as many $ at risk.
If only someone could live so long as to be able to turn 100k into 100m.
Is that 100k starting point inflation adjusted? If so, what was the value in 1871 dollars?
Thanks Tom.
2013 Performance:
Here's what & how GIEW tallied in December...
All in all I'll take it!
Beat the main averages handily for the year and that's good too.
Going back by year...
Some up, some down, but always looking to improve.
Here's hoping that the New Year brings more good results for all of us.
Yah! He's always 'on duty'.
Hi Clive.
Hi again Clive and thanks. Kids do make it special.
Here's my grandson:
Congrats Tom!
GIEW has been busy as well.
If this Santa Claus Rally holds up through next Tuesday, GIEW will end the year at record cash and stock values.
Hope you all had a great Christmas!
BTW:
It must get cold driving that coupe with the top down given all the snow you've been getting.
And to you and yours as well Clive.
Happy Boxing Day.
Congrats Toof!
4 transactions over 5 days is a lot for you.
Have a great Thanskgiving.
BTW:
Tom didn't publish his pudding recipe this year (yet).
Wow Jon.
That BIG RED 63.79 is quite high.
Now may not be the time to enter into new programs.
GIEW is sitting at 31% Cash right now.
Quite a bit higher than my average of 13% over the last 3 years.
I've averaged 25% cash this year to date but still seem to have managed over 38% overall growth in total portfolio value. If we have a Santa Claus Rally (BIG IF) I might could touch 40%.
More than likely it will come in around 30%. Probably not less.
Have a great Thanksgiving.