Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
The performance of the Chinese Small Caps have been horrible this year. your other board did some pretty agressive promoting on the sector - even made it a premium board which in hindsight was a bit premature. Anyway, I don't know how long you've been in Chinese small caps but have you been thru these deep sector corrections before? Obviously last year was the fluke year. Based on your valuation postings and my own research I invested in many of these "cheap" small caps, and then watched as the market didn't care what we thought they were worth - the market thought otherwise. I am trying to understand what went wrong so I don't make the same mistake again. Where did we go wrong? Or is this the way you buy value? You buy it regardless of what the market thinks and you hold and wait til you get agreement? Until the market catches up to its valuation? Seems like a very risky way to make money as I understand 3/4 of a stock's price is based on sector strength. If the market hates China, the stock is dead meat until the market stops hating China. What have the boards' gurus done? Bailed and taken the loss and moved on? Piled in on these firesale prices and have gone fishing until the market turns around? A little of both? Can we trust the numbers the Chinese provide us with? Are they playing fast and loose with their own stock?
I For every CHGY there are five NEPS that are an embarassment. Thanks
Hi zab - WLT has had some nice short covering action in the past too- I like it's FA ..been trying to build a nice position for a good trade... I have been nibbling at these levels -if the markets stabilize or stay around these levels, would you be a buyer here or what are you waiting for? what would be the perfect scenario for buying WLT? thanks!
burp - I had only 3 contracts on the NEP calls april 17 10 dollar which will most likely expire worthless at this point. Did they do this on purpose? Is this tpical behavior for options? This was my very first options purchase - not a very positive experience to say the least - it sure seems like the company did everything ot make sure this stock did not hit 10 bucks - but why? (I follwed the thread on the small cap board that you and the other guys talked about re NEP but I don't get it...I am still long the common but think I will bail on the whole thing as I no longer trust the company...thanks!
you never answered my specific question on the april 17 NEP options - should I sell now and take the loss? I bought them at .40 a week ago... today they closed at .20
thanks..I am new at options....appreciate your opinion as to what you would do now...thanks
I hav a GTC order to sell I bought 03/08/2010 09:30:35 Bought 3 NEP Apr 17 2010 10.0 Call @ 0.4
btw - Rev Shark over at TSCM said yesterday on NEP - not sure if you saw it...
"China North East Petroleum is my favorite at the moment as it comes out of nicely coiled pattern and breaches its upside resistance on good early volume...."
what are the odds NEP hits 10 bucks before earnings? sure would like to at least break even on those damn calls!
As I recall he has a pretty healthy following!
TIA 12buttons
thanks for the heads up - what sleaze-oids!
burp - re NEP calls- I bought the april 17 10 dollar calls - I just keep losing more everyday - should I sell here ya think and take the loss? thanks...12 buttons
they report on the 15th - these expire on the 17th - maybe I should hold til the 15th? sorry to ask such newbie questions but these are my FIRST options...TIA (I am long the common)
HARBIN, China and NEW YORK, March 30 /PRNewswire-Asia-FirstCall/ -- China North East Petroleum Holdings Ltd. (the "Company" or "NEP") (NYSE Amex: NEP), a leading independent oil producing and oilfield services company in Northern China, today announced that the Company will report its fourth quarter and full year 2009 financial results before the market opens on Thursday, April 15th, 2010.
Management will host a conference call at 8:30 am ET on Thursday, April 15th. Listeners may access the call by dialing #1-719-457-2644. To listen to the live webcast of the event, please go to http://www.viavid.net . Listeners may access the call replay, which will be available through April 29th, by dialing #719-457-0820; passcode: 8793045.
LPIH or LTUS -which has the potential for more immediate appreciation?
hi Burp what a great place you have here - just discovered it today - been lurking on the china small cap site - anyway here's my dilemma -I followed you into the april 17 10 calls on NEP - I am new to the options world, trying to learn as I go along... and not sure what to do with them now - I only bought 3 contracts but I am down 90 bucks so far! They cost me 129.00 with commish...the delayed earnings has me a bit nervous but I am pretty confident we'll see a runup into earnings - maybe even that 10 bucks .. what say you? I am long quite a few of the common. My broker tells me they have to hit 10.40 or so.
You are stellar by the way...thank you so much!
twelvebuttons (Carol)
do you ever offer a 24 hour pass to the chat or a one time day rate to try it out?
hey fab - you said Accumulate gold on weakness and hold it.
what gold? physical? GDX? AUY? how weak? btw silver looks worse here than gold..since gold decoupled from the dollar I am avoiding it cause I don't understand what it is anymore - currency, commodity, trading vehicle, hedge....thanks..
thank you for the semantics - the 2009 party I guess is over..as you know the small caps move as a sector - it's our job to parse the movers that offer forward positive guidance, and great fundies - they will win in the end. thanks for all you do..I agree with your rant on the Chinese market and their credibility - as the birthplace of enron, lehman, and cds's, we have no business pointing fingers at anyone!
12buttons
appreciate your thoughts on small caps...as for BNX, it sure looked better when it wasn't at its high - too bad I didn't read your post a week ago..lol
Like you said the party is over in the chinese small caps - -caution is the watchword ( scok!)
esp banks with talk of tightening..goood luck
12buttons
what's in the index? thanks! great site~
what type of interface do you use for the chat and does it sit on my computer? do you ever offer a free trial on the chat? I've had problems with chat software in past endeavors...thanks..great site
thanks I did a little digging - that was the only stock you mentioned so I figured it was DDSS - thanks! nice find!
what stock are you n dr no talking about?
would it be too much to ask that you include the ticker symbol in your posts? what stock are you talking about - I clicked back to the stone age - and got nada...I know Chartinator has made similar requests - thanks! 12buttons
Hey landm..
BEXP should be interesting - downgraded recently but a stellar pick longer term...of your list I have GLBL recently picked up, and NTES...I am flummoxed over IOC so my mind was elsewhere today!
OT - heard any good music lately? I seem to recall you linked a few good tunes on the other ihub site...
also that site where the guy does the daytrades? I liked him..hope all is well with you....got any gappers for tomorrow?
12buttons
wutzup with NEP?
xela - your stock work is impressive indeed - but what are the prices next to the ticker mean? the target price, the breakout price or the price when you posted the message or...?
thanks!
the chinese new year - chinese market closed -how are you playing this? any stock plays off it? How will it affect chinese shares traded here in US?
Thanks. great board...
and Bidu AH was the icing on the cake - there is simply no stopping this freight train...
Jim Chanos is a Greek hedge fund billionaire -
why doesn't someone suggest that he simply write a check
and bail out his origin country? Do a tarp type thingy eh?
Might buy him a lot of street cred in Wash. which he so desires anyway - and take some of the attention off his China bubbletalk.
Or perhaps he could just buy the whole country!
so if we get a bounce off better than expected numbers, are you selling your existing positions into strength or taking more long positions?
it's all relative -spain unemployment is 18 % -europe is farked...we'll do fine and so will the dollar -we're the only game in town..the market has dismissed the guys in the white house as benign irritations - they can't accomplish anything so it's all steak and no sizzle . The banking reform - laughable as it is will go the way of that IMPRESSIVE healthcare bill ..lol..someday candidate OB may become president but don't count on it... he's still on the campaign trail..has there been one day he did NOT make a speech somewhere? I am pretty confident that the american public is not as gullible and stupid as this administration thinks it is...lol
govt continues to print money - if they didn't plan on it they would not have approved BB...they unshackled the beast...
hey there are ladies present - and I demand equal eyecandy time!! lol
12buttons
you selling or adding? lol
tdameritrade has to place HCEI online for all opening orders- is it a pump and dump or something? they are usually pretty cool about these pennies...it sounds like a good concept...thanks!
I certainly did well with ddrx and gmcr last year...
it helps tremendously - I don't know how to thank you enough!
Have a great evening!
my husband agrees with you - to me it's really a market call - do I think the market will move up to a level that keeps me off margin..if I throw money into the account only to see it continue to fall, I will lose twice....the individual stock, IOC, in this case, I believe will recover BEFORE the market does...but you're right - it's either sell 4000k of stock or deposit 800 bucks..thanks!
yes exactly..they get nasty on the "reg" margin calls - my broker will start calling at 9 am, then lunchtime, etc..meanwhile I am hoping the market bounces and takes me out so I sometimes stall for time..they know this and give me a short leash...they say if they have to open their books, they could get fined...lol
..I don't think the brokers are doing that well these days - they must have lost a lot of business if I am getting all this attention! we're talking hundreds of dollars..
U.S. GDP Will Grow 7-10% And Stocks Will Melt Up
Bill Miller's massive fall during the recent crisis hasn't cowed his investment forecasts one bit.
In the latest Legg Mason commentary, he makes the case that consensus GDP and employment forecasts are far, far too conservative.
Companies have been beating earnings forecasts all over the place. Yet even if current 25% corporate profit growth forecasts are correct for 2010, it would suggest a U.S. GDP growth rate of, yes, 7-10% for the U.S according to Mr. Miller.
That's about triple the 2.7% GDP growth rate expected by the market according to Miller. Stocks would obviously melt up.
Now while he refrains from specifically forecasting a single GDP growth rate for the year, admitting that it's hard to really know, clearly he thinks it should be substantially higher than what most people expect.
It's an enormous call. If Mr. Miller can get this right, he'll likely be completely atoned for past failures and regain rock star status. If he gets it wrong by a wide margin (The U.S. economy double-dips and stocks tank), then Mr. Miller's reputation will be down for the count.
Regardless, none can say this man isn't bold:
Bill Miller's January 2010 Commentary: [Emphasis Added] Clearly the consensus has embraced the “new normal” popularized by our friends at PIMCO. (The old normal given the depth and duration of this downtown would be for the real GDP rebound to be 6% or more the first year.) The Fed forecast is 3% for 2010 and 3.95% for 2011. Both of these forecasts are higher than they were in the previous survey, when the Fed was expecting growth of 2.7% while the consensus was at 1.8%.
Corporate profits growth is expected to be 25% in 2010, again a number that has been consistently revised higher, as more than two thirds of companies reporting in the second quarter beat expectations, and over 80% beat in the third quarter. The economic team at ISI reports that the incoming data are consistent with 35% profits growth in the first two quarters of 2010.
We of course don’t know what GDP or profits growth will be in 2010. History and the data, though, support a view that GDP ought to be 7% to 10%, if corporate profits are going to grow 25% to 35%.
The jobs data is likewise consistent with a rosier outlook than consensus, which has unemployment averaging 10% in 2010 (consensus) or 9.5% (Fed). The improvement in the jobs numbers through last week is more consistent with the robust employment growth we saw coming out of the 1982 recession, rather than the more tepid job growth experienced following the 1990 and 2001 recessions, which are the blueprints for the current consensus.
Most forecasts of the fourth quarter’s GDP now average 4%, but then drop back to 2.7% for the first quarter of 2010. Since inventories will still be in the process of being rebuilt (final demand never fell as much as production during the recession, leading to massive inventory liquidation), and the stimulus will still be going strong, and the economy is accelerating off the 2.2% third quarter, the sudden deceleration in the first quarter of 2010 seems more theory driven than data driven at this point.
What about the stock market? It’s clear that economically things are getting better, not worse. In addition to GDP numbers, credit spreads have returned to some semblance of “normal,” and the bond market has seen record refinancings. Yet stocks still sell below where they sold AFTER Lehman failed, when the world was falling apart. Even in the week after Lehman collapsed, the S&P 500 traded as high as 1255, over 10% higher than the market is today.
I like to watch Bloomberg Asia to find out what their market is up to...tonight they had on an asian analyst who said the following...
Why we had a correction and why the market going forward will be different than 2009 according to bloomberg tonight...
This is what's different now...
Greece
MBS Fed buying stops in March
The US Banking sector under attack which will affect the global banking sector
China tightening
they also said...
This bounce was expected but it's not the light at the end of the tunnel.Is there a bubble in China? yes in property only...
if China tightens, it will put pressure on commodities, the dollar is cheap, thinks you should buy the dollar , the euro is poison re Greece...gold won't go past 1200, silver is a leveraged play off gold...
cheers
12buttons
gosh - where was this guy two weeks ago when Chanos opened his big fat mouth about the bubble? This guy could have spared us a correction! I sure hope he's right about February..I loaded up on the fxi on Friday..along with more ccme, puda, and tstc...
on average what is the "hold" time on a marginned stock? It seems to work as along as the market is in bull mode - I have stayed in marginned stocks for months - the appreciation in the stock price more than paid for the margin interest I was charged -when it "corrected" I was still okay holding thru the dip..it seems that recent purchases on margin that take a steep slide down are what gets me into trouble..thanks for the advice..I can't NOT use leverage and hope to get the kind of portfolio growth I am seeking. Like I said, I don't mind some risk -just trying to keep it manageable - I know I will take some hits along the way - you said - if the if they give you 10k only use 5k is smart - thanks..I will remember that...theses brokerages are as bad as the banks!
Best way to use margin?
I had a very small account at tdameritrade. I bought some shares of IOC which took a big hit last week and the account dropped below 2000 which disqualifies it for margin. I get a call - here are my choices... sell 4500 worth of stock to cover the call or deposit 800 bucks to bring account over 2000...or sell 1200 worth of stock in my cash account and transfer it over to this account...I guess the question is how fast do I think IOC will recover...the stupidest thing I did was not sell it when it hit 80, rake profits and then buy it back last week at 59 .....I hate to sell this stock at the botton but i hate to throw "good money" to cover margin which fluctuates daily...anybody have experience with this? I can't hold stocks in margin thru corrections anymore!! I hate this....it feels like a have a gun to my head.
thanks
12buttons
yes, I agree..I will go over the account - but I have been with them for a long time...I use margin judiciously...it's just been such a crushing week!
I was wondering if some of these brokers get an additional commish if they can squeeze as much out of an account as possible..my broker is supposedly for elite clients..lol
he did the old I'm only thinking of you baloney...thanks for the info...margin calls are horrid things...
is my broker being a jerk?
tdameritrade. he calls me mid-day to tell me that the margin call I am in is actually worse and that I now owe more...which is due in total today..I thought a reg call was determined on the prior day's close.. if it fluctuates thru the day, I am not obliged to pay the full amount from hour to hour! My online account actually said I was out of the margin call and had funds to trade. He calls me and says hey, you owe us a real time amount of x...and you have twenty minutes to cover it....huh?
I said cut me some slack here and he said he was afraid margin dept would come in and start dumping my shares and so he didn't want that to happen. He also said that regulators look at their books and they did not want to pay a penalty just in case.
We are talking super minor amounts of money here..the margin call was 1400 bucks...is ameritrade that hard up? he called me like four times today!!!
anyone have experience in this?
thanks!
I am new to the board and want to say what a great place it is...
btw I added to bwih, and oxpa, and converted my ccme warrants...
twelvebuttons