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Thanks for the insights!
I'm surprised how much leeway the CEO gets here. He's been saying the same thing for many quarters in a row now -- "we fixed processes. we're fixing the sales team. V-XR will launch soon. There's a big opportunity in healthcare. Focus on military for higher sales with less effort. Grant funding is slowing our bookings. International is waiting on budgets. I'm trying not to give forward looking statements. I'm not going to PR anything"
Not saying he's not doing a good job of improving things nor that the company won't succeed, but news flows and conference calls seem much less useful now than they used to be.
sadly they've had their V100 since 2023. Not sure why they're marketing it again
I'd hold off getting in if i were you
oh! total revenue 8.1m --> 6.7m fed gov + 1.3m international + 1m police depts
Now i see it!
Did you see that international revenue was $1.3m?
> How much of Q1 revenue came from police depts? About $1mil.
Huh?
The 2023 cutoff is a verifiable fact available with a quick google search. You're not even close to it. As far as the 2024 cutoff, there are 2000 companies in the Russell 2000 so you can get a good feel for where the cutoff will be just by looking at how that cohort has performed over the past 12 months. It's not even close to what you're saying.
You are incorrect
Do you have to complain about everything? Why do they need to wait until q1 earnings? Of course Microsoft has given money to others as part of this program. They aren’t building an ecosystem of products all by themselves. Similar to Virtra in 2020, it was possible to find others who were involved and bound by similar NDA’s
This caused today’s drop
https://stocktwits.com/MasterCap/message/568580810
Happens to every stock he sells as he has a rather large following.
I'm not necessarily negative on the company overall or it's profitability, but more so near term revenue projections and its recent past revenue mix.
Cons
* SVT Weapons continues to get pushed back and is now looking like a FY25 award instead of FY24 due to funding constraints.
* SVT part 2 (use of force & JFT) prototype was supposed to happen 2qFY24 but has been pushed back to 3QFY25 through 1QFY27 with an initial RFI only recently released.
* SiVT continues to not be tested outdoors due to challenges handling complex terrain. Prior commentary was that the program wouldn't continue long term with only-indoor capabilities. While I wouldn't be shocked to see that comment get walked back, I'm hesitant to think FY25 is going to be the year it magically works and rolled out broadly.
* STEP program is closer to 0% y/y growth than it is to 50%
* L12 month bookings less the $4m weapon prototyping is the worst it has been since pre-covid
This all said, for what little a random guy's portfolio allocation is worth, VTSI is still my largest position.
Back in the day, I was estimating ~$3000 revenue per HUD for SiVT. FY25 IVAS is requesting 3100 HUDs.
I’m not yet sold that all/any of these IVAS kits will be used in conjunction with SiVT in FY25. Nor that delivery will happen any time soon after an initial order.
What a lazy post. At least put it into a poem! Twister, can you help this guy out?
True-Fire has been around since early 2023. Maybe it was one of the differentiators on the SVT bid which was due late 2022. Also it's interesting timing that they're debuting it now and it coincides with the recent stock price run-up. Wonder if there's been some confirmation of involvement in SVT.
From the 10-k:
was also announced as part of the 10q for anyone who read down to the very last sentence.
$7.3m bookings and backlog of $16.4m from the 10q
Competitor pricing for headsets looks something like:
- Apex Officer: $125k + $12k/yr warranty. A lot of historical sales are for ~$65k using "first user in <state>" discounts.
- AXON VR: ~$35k/yr on a 5 year contract.
- Inveris S-VR: Between $35-65k. Pricing in 2022 was all $65k but I saw one sale for $35k in 2023.
A Meta Quest Pro with all add-ons costs $1500.
Anybody willing to look around and see what competitors are selling their headsets for?
Surely there's better ways to spend your time than belaboring the same point for the 5th year in a row.
No excitement only a few days before IACP?
https://www.virtra.com/virtras-latest-simulation-and-virtual-reality-training-advancements-at-iacp-2023-blog/
New competition - https://operatorxr.com/
https://www.garfield-county.com/news/garfield-county-sheriffs-office-first-agency-to-utilize-virtual-training-program/
VR Headset for LE costs $50k for first year.
IVAS passes potential roadblock: https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-army/2023/09/07/army-approves-next-phase-for-augmented-reality-device/
8.4m Q2 bookings is the highest non-Q3 number ever. And there were $0 federal orders placed during this time.
every quarter i find mistakes in their earnings report and every quarter I send a message to Bob, John, and the CFO. It continues to happen. It's like they have different Excel versions to populate their reports and forget to use the most up to date one every 90 days...
It's beyond ridiculous at this point and bugs the hell out of me. Any serious investor who looks at the company or uses automated tooling to do their research will lose trust in management and not invest. They continue to shoot themselves in their collective feet.
That said, i think the bookings number was $8.4m. The CC's have historically been the correct number per my experience following up with management.
I have a q3 estimate of $7.5m revenue still buoyed by the big Q3'22 bookings. Then i start to model the drop off.
Considering Bob said on the prior call that their current turnaround time is much > 30d and their goal is to get to sub-30 days, plus the fact that delivery has a strong dependence on customer preference, I don't think it's reasonable to assume prior Q is a strong indicator of current Q revenues. Data shows only a 25% r^2 as well, indicating as much.
When factoring the prior 6 months of bookings is when R^2 gets a lot higher at 61%. That said, for the reason stated above, i'm less concerned
logically i understand, but what does this say about the stock / its holders?
- Holders aren't the type to open these up for borrowing?
- Lots of long term holders?
- Someone is accumulating?
I know it's a fun game on this board to hate on the CEO, but
https://www.halldale.com/articles/21360-mst-ncs-m-and-s-hall-of-fame-2023-honorees-announced
TSIS Docs Day 1:
ISMT Tech Refresh: FY24Q2 slide 2 -- I'm assuming this goes to Inveris
ASALT Re-compete: FY26 slide 2 (Background on ASALT: slide 11)
Small Unit Tactical Training Systems (SUTTS): FY26Q4 slide 11 -- too early to know, but software has never been VirTra's thing
Force on Force Training System (FOFTS) Next: Sometime 2024? & $6-8m slide 2 -- I don't think this is applicable as I think they've already figured out there individual weapons, but worth following
this is an old article about Ferris Productions's headsets in Great America parks: https://www.ultimaterollercoaster.com/news/archives/may99/stories/052099_03.shtml
Per public commentary, seems headsets are on the way. But idk why VirTra would choose to tie themselves to a public device which isn't publicly available and has a use case which doesn't directly map to their product. I'd hope they (a) partner with a product that already on the market and is reliable or (b) they build their own hardware.
For folks who have been around, way back in the day, did Bob build his own headsets?
Name at gmail.com.
Happy to chat, but admittedly, nothing has been as research friendly as VirTra where I feel comfortable saying I have an information edge over others.
I wouldn't mind being wrong like this more often
My Q1 expectations:
I see analyst estimates at $6.75m and 3c EPS... lol
Topline Revenue: $9.75m
International: $0.5m
Commercial: $0 (no idea)
STEP: $0.86m
Government (less STEP): $7.1m
Warranty: $0.6m
Installation: $0.35m
Software: $0.3m (no idea)
Gross Margins: 57%
Gross Profit: $5.5m
SG&A: $2.7m (no idea)
R&D: $0.7m (no idea)
OPEX: $3.4m
EBITDA: $2.5m
Net Income: $1.7m
EPS: $0.15
Bookings: $6m
Backlog: $24m
Cash: $17m?
Inventory: $9.5m
---
A lot of this revenue is coming from the CBP+IRS orders in Q3, so I could very well be off by ~$1m revenue and we could see sub $9m revenue. But I very much expect us to be closer to $9m than $8m revenue.
Thanks for sharing! But this bill didn't pass the AZ Senate
I am the guest on the podcast who you're calling third tier :)
Appreciate the feedback, fish! Glad to hear you enjoyed all of the research I and others have provided. I know we all don’t constantly rehash our uninformed opinions about the sales org and BoD for years at a time and instead share our research from ongoing military opportunities, the timelines of said programs, industry trade shows which cost hundreds of dollars and time to attend, opinions of people in industry, and surfacing information received from FOIA requests. Oh yeah, also https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=166358413" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" > breaking the news to this message board about IVAS delay which coincided, to the day, with the stock price drop from 12.