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Past experience tells me to be more cautious, but with this and other posts of yours, dmb2, you're giving me hope for something good by Thanksgiving.
Thank you so much! I just read a few parts of the May 8 Nature Communications study (there is a link in the press release). The actual research work is quite old -- about a decade. Happily their current research is much farther ahead of what the journal article documents.
I seem to recall a talk Linda Liau gave in the last year or few in which she discussed adding the poly-ICLC and other adjuvant to a DC-Vax cocktail. She said the outcomes were promising, and the study went well far as it went, but also they noticed that the tumor cells often learned to fight back in a new way to get around the cocktail. So Liau's and Prins's lab added something more to the mix to address the new problem.
They are continuing through this process, and they might be up to at least four cocktail ingredients by now, but I don't really remember. I'm sure someone else here knows a lot more than I do.
They're also getting better at understanding and figuring out how to respond to the molecular mechanisms in the tumor and its environment.
As it is, I find the overall survival outcomes for the DC-Vax + poly-ICLC study to be pretty exciting, especially knowing that the lab is already progressing further along the path. Of course, what it means for NWBO is up for debate.
Ouch. Thank you. Even though Kintara is a competitor, it still hurts that the treatment options for GBM are so limited.
May she rest in peace. It is sad news.
I don’t remember whether she underwent DC-Vax treatment. Did she?
LAURA! Laura Posner. Probably your autocorrect has been shaped by all the Lindas. ;)
How nice to collect and publish all the critiques, some of them even valid. Addressing one specific point that’s already been exhaustively discussed:
Progression-free survival was always a stupid endpoint. All any patient has ever cared about is overall survival. Duh.
I remember looking at my husband’s radiologist and trying, amid the shock of a brain cancer diagnosis, to take in an explanation that the time to cancer recurrence generally has little bearing on overall survival. My first thought was, then why are you discussing time to recurrence at all? All my husband and I cared about was survival.*
It might be true that longer PFS can correlate with better quality of life within a limited OS timeframe, but that’s a red herring. The PFS metric was invented by cheating drug developers who failed to meet OS endpoints.
So to disingenuously flip the script back again and say an unmet PFS point is in any way significant in light of a wonderful breakthrough success in OS? That is ludicrous. Cruelly ludicrous!
*(And he is indeed still with us, more than a decade later. His cancer was “only”Grade III, and his surgeon was the talented, skilled Jon Weingart of Johns Hopkins.)
Well said, Mike.
I’m with you, underpar. I bought my first shares on Halloween in 2012 — scary indeed. I just want this treatment to be made available to patients. Linda seems to be focused on channeling NWBio resources into building Advent and its predecessor. I hope I’m wrong.
This reaffirms my decision to decline ultrasound imaging in my second, third, and fourth pregnancies. In inexperienced hands, the technology can have deleterious effects on a developing fetus. Apparently it can also weaken the blood-brain barrier in adults!
I agree. I prefer not to partner. All the infrastructure is in place to begin generating revenue. There is no new capital need, and all the potential partners have conflicts of interest. Going it alone was LP’s plan several years ago. We can see she has perseverance and the vision to bring about the next global disruptor.
Every little bit counts! Thank you for sharing, StonkMaster.
The bit about DC-Vax was lower on the page, but they summarized it decently without some of the misleading caveats we’ve seen in other coverage.
Maybe the ABC affiliate will get ambitious and send in a version to the national desk… fingers crossed
Thank you so much for posting the link AND transcript!
“In my opinion Brown University came to the rescue of two of their top alums who know and respect each other with one having a child currently enrolled with them. Great way for this smaller school to toot their horn…”
I like this interpretation. Let’s get the old “boys” network working on it, if that’s what it takes — now diversifying.
My one concern is the question the reporter asked about the timing of the press conference. I can imagine the reporter taking this story back to their editor, and even if the reporter is excited, the editor might kill it for lack of a news hook. Still, I’m thrilled that reputable and intelligent investigators are trying. It’s never too late, even if you live in a minute-to-minute news bubble and your story is two months old. We just have to hope for a slow news day or two ahead.
All so true.
Right now it’s good that these Brown investigators took it upon themselves to schedule a press conference. The investigators and the surviving patients are the treatment’s best and most reputable advocates at the moment. I appreciate their initiative.
You’re quite right, Laser. Thanks for reminding us to be civil.
Often a document can have multiple interpretations.
I’m glad to see NWBO have some fight left in them.
I agree it will be nice if any other news outlets publicize the story, but it won’t be due to the Murdochs.
Dow Jones Newswires/WSJ have always had reporters whose job it is to monitor court filings and produce news items about them. They have long been one of the most high-profile news producers in the country that regularly monitors this kind of general business news, but the Murdochs only bought the organization relatively recently.
The lawsuit is probably most of use as a chilling agent against predatory NWBO traders in general going forward. Now they know they are being watched.
DC-Vax still beat out the highest reported OS for recent MGMT-methylated patients. The OS from time of surgery is 33.0 months with DC-Vax.
From the JAMA Oncology paper by Liau et al.:
“In patients with nGBM with methylated MGMT, mOS was 30.2 (95% CI, 23.7-33.9) months from randomization (33.0 months from surgery) in 90 patients receiving DCVax-L vs 21.3 (95% CI, 18.3-25.1) months in the 199 patients in the ECP (HR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.55-1.00, P = .03).”
Yes! Thank you.
This is a very good point.
Thanks for posting these, JM. It’s heartening.
Correction - The writer isn’t particularly inexperienced. Maybe the editor was. Here’s a link to her bio:
https://www.freethink.com/people/kristin-houser
In any case, I think we’ll catch more flies with honey than with vinegar if we can gently but firmly point out where her piece fell short.
For one thing, in reference to the long tail of survivors, she mentioned only one patient who survived 8 years or more. I can’t figure out where she got that idea.
Additionally, she wrote that patients who used DCVax actually progressed sooner than those who didn’t. At the very least, it’s much more ambiguous than that, and moreover, the overall survival is clearly better with DCVax. That is all patients care about.
New popsci article?
Hello all, I apologize if this was already posted. I ran across an article about DCVax on my Apple News feed.
It’s haphazardly sourced and poorly written (probably by a fresh young journalist in a hurry). It also includes some inaccuracies that make the product look worse than it is. Perhaps you’d care to join me in kindly pointing out their mistakes?
The original website is Freethink.com:
https://www.freethink.com/health/brain-cancer-vaccine
They even seem to be unaware of the original JAMA Oncology paper!
I can’t understand why sellers are giving shares away at the moment. I can sort of understand pausing buy orders until regulatory approval, but I can’t understand selling. Even after RA, there will be myriad challenges and risks. Success is nowhere near guaranteed. But, sheesh, if ever there was a time to wait and see, it’s now.
Thank you for re-sharing. I hadn’t seen this:
—————————
they have, of course, hired contemporary trained professionals for this work:
$NWBO annual OTCQB certification was submitted on May 16, 2022. Michael Fox (new) and Sarah MacLeod (known) have been added as IR/PR service providers.??* Michael Fox - https://t.co/BILAs3g6vX?* Sarah MacLeod - https://t.co/ZLUd9AKn0whttps://t.co/0ekatTOmzt pic.twitter.com/ZYOz7haend
— Henry (@HenryMuney) June 15, 2022
NWBO buyout prospects aside, who will Advent’s buyer be?
At $12 the total number of shares was a small fraction of what it is now. LP has been diluting the stock for years. Still, I am optimistic. The next steps are regulatory approval and revenue generation — maybe even enough to buy shares back someday if LP doesn’t suck it all away through Advent.
You’re right.
Many times I have asked myself this question (when to acknowledge it’s over). I have nearly gotten out entirely a couple of times.
Many times it has seemed that they would have to make a definitive announcement or else run out of funds, but every time so far they managed to raise more diluting equity, refinance loans, borrow more, or all of the above.
Perhaps when Linda Liau started distancing herself more clearly, that should have been a red flag, but Dr. Ashkan seemed to step into the breach.
It does appear that they are puttering forward. The regulatory process is daunting, so maybe possibly it makes sense that they are taking so effing forever.
There are undeniably several long-tail survivors, which should indeed count for a lot in this disease, and I very much hope the U.S. regulators understand that. I say it as the wife of a former Grade III patient.
Ultimately, as much as I’d like it, I’m not here to get rich quick. I want to be a part of the solution to brain cancer, so I am sticking around a little longer. I’ve certainly learned a lot along the way.
Well said, Happy. Thank you for all your commentary, which I have been reading for more than decade now, previously at Yahoo.
The 10-year anniversary of my first NWBO investment (Halloween 2012 — spooky!) is coming up. Right from the beginning pumpers have been insisting each day that FDA approval (Yes: APPROVAL!) and a life-changing payoff was just days away.
Short activity and related doomsaying on this stock is frustrating, but often the gaslighting and cultish zeal for optimism are almost worse.
Your thoughtful, clear-eyed, judicious commentary is a refreshing alternative to both gutters. Let’s hope the ball is still rolling.
To be precise, I believe what BSB said this morning was that Dr. Ashkan said publication would be “soon.” I don’t believe he said “imminent.” The connotations differ.
Which people are you talking about? There weren’t that many people involved in the decision making and control of Toucan, and it’s perfectly logical they would have taken what they were told at face value. Many smart investors on these boards certainly do.
“Smart,” “highly educated and credentialed,” and “skeptical” are all different things.
____________________
“ah, so 10s of smart people, physicians, doctors and lawyers all went along and perpetuated a felony unknowingly. The conspiracy theory plot thickens! I find this insinuation to be devoid of any logic.”
Those are all good questions and thoughts, and very familiar over the years.
I will say with respect to the idea that Toucan can’t have been a scam because it would have had to have been a conspiracy: I don’t see the necessity of any direct collaboration or conspiracy with other parties.
Toucan could easily have been a fraud in which innocent parties participated willingly without asking questions because they, like many longs, thought they were ending cancer. The fact that some sincere posters here want to shut down questions and protect the company at all costs — even though the posters themselves don’t really know what’s going on — demonstrates how it works.
Only time, an investigation, or both will tell. This could all end up smashingly successful and wonderful in the end. Or the opposite.
I am concerned for one poster I read recently who is borrowing money short-term to buy NWBO shares that, he thinks, will skyrocket in a few days. Even if all goes well, NWBO will probably still move slowly. That’s what it has always done, anyway.
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“Lack of credibility and transparency along with risk of massive dilution is to blame.
“They say they won’t release data w/o a journal to back it up. They release data and 1 month passes no journal??? So why did they withhold data so long? They make zero effort to defend themselves against the “evil cabal”. Why did they tell us in March 2021 that we would get data soon? What are the short term and long term plans to ensure we have $ to fund day to day and also future expansion. Why does Linda fund Toucan investment with NWBO capital? The market has no idea what is going on.
“Yes the data is exciting. The business leadership is concerning to say the least.”
Thanks for your thoughts, Iron Mike. I didn’t realize that TLD is exempted from journal embargoes.
It appears many others here also didn’t know.
Now I have so many more questions. Gosh, it would be nice if there were a way for the company to communicate with shareholders.
Prescient.
The aggressive optimists were noticeably off base with several predictions, but it might not matter if DC-Vax doesn’t get an “A” grade. This is a pass-fail situation. All they need to do is pass through the FDA approval process. Fingers crossed, knock on wood, etc.
I would like to see a full write-up with more data and graphs, preferably peer-reviewed as was promised.
This might be why they’ve been sitting on the data so long. It isn’t ideal and falls unconcealably short of overhyped high expectations.
But even so they should have released it much sooner. They made it look worse than it is by dragging their feet for more than a year and a half and then releasing it almost furtively.
I agree. Even just a little bit of effort stands out — and is outstanding — when it comes to PR for Northwest Biotherapeutics and DC-Vax. Thank you, Magrit!
Sorry I’ve been unclear. When I say mono therapy I mean DC-Vax therapy as it’s set up in the current trial that was data locked 19 months ago. There’s an adjuvant, and it’s applied after patients undergo SOC. But that’s in contrast with the types of immunotherapy combos that UCLA is working on these days.
They did used to say, and maybe they still do, that they want to work toward replacing radiation and temodar.
I was expecting that comment. That ship sailed a decade ago.
“Johnni, you should not invest in what you do not understand or what you do not believe in. This investment is not for everyone. No one is trying to convince you to invest NWBO”
I invested while my husband was finishing up rounds of temodar. We had consulted with neuro oncologists at a couple big hospitals and at the NIH — anywhere we could get a foot in the door. Most had barely even heard of cancer immunotherapy, and all said it was bunk, but they didn’t have any better alternatives. So I put a little cash into NWBO, thinking of it as a charitable donation. But as time went on, I added a little more, then the stock crashed by a couple orders of magnitude from $12 to nearly $0.12, so I averaged down, and so on.
Last year I sold most of our stake and invested it elsewhere, but I am still holding on to 5,000 shares because, despite my skepticism, I still have hope.
Investing in NWBO doesn’t have to be a dichotomy. I don’t have to be either with you or against you. I can have both hope and skepticism. And both can be well-informed!
Thanks for your kind response. It’s no big deal. I’ve had bigger fish to fry so I take it all with a grain of salt.