Natgas Prices

Working gas in storage was 3,179 Bcf as July 1, 2016 versus a 5-year average of 2,580 Bcf for this time of year. In other words, the total working gas is 600 Bcf above the five-year average.

The average weekly injection for this time of year is 77 Bcf; however, the average since june has dropped about 50% to about 38 Bcf per week. If this continues at the same average through July, August, September, and October, we will inject 38 Bcf less per week for the next 12 weeks until the start of heating season. (12 X 38 = 456 Bcf less injection).

The 5-year average as of the start of heating season (Nov. 1st) has been about 3800 Bcf in storage. Working gas in storage right now is 3,179 Bcf or 620 Bcf less that the 5-year average going into heating season. This means that at the current rate, we will have 3,179 Bcf in storage plus another 456 Bcf. In other words, as it stands right now, we will enter the heating season with (3179 + 456 = 3635 Bcf). This is below our average storage level for the last 5 years by 165 Bcf assuming all else is equal. This ain't bad!

There are a few other consideration: (1) LNG exports will likely drag 50 Bcf between now and November, and (2) Less imports from Canada and more exports to Mexico will likely drag another 50 Bcf by November.

This brings us down to 3535 Bcf in storage by the start of the heating season. The 5-year average that we have in storage on March 15th of every year is 1600 Bcf, which means the average heating season draws out 3800 - 1600 = 2200 Bcf draw down.

So, assuming an average winter, we will have in storage 1355 Bcf by March 15th, 2017. The extreme lowest storage we have ever had over the last 5 years is 800 Bcf.

This is assuming production remains average going forward. On the other hand, if production is down due to nervousness on the part of producers with weakened balance sheets, lack of bank credit, hurricanes, or a shortage of tier 1 pad-optimized rigs, then we might touch the all time low of 800 Bcf in storage by March 15, 2017.

The other problem is a bitter cold winter with lots of blowing snow, ice storms, and freezing wind chill factors. Combine this with a drop in production and we could run slap out of natgas by the end of March 2017.

The way the advanced weather report looks right now, and drilling at a 50 year low, running out of natural gas is a 50/50 shot.

If we get close to running out (say 500 Bcf by March 15, 2017) we could very well get a spike in natgas prices to $15/mmBtu.

CHK could easily hit $20. As it is now, I see $10 by January 15, 2017 (more than a double only 6.5 months away).

Buy and hold till hell freezes over!

PRODUCERS CALL TO BAN OPEC OIL!

http://oilpro.com/links/detail/32525/oil-producers-want-us-to-restrict-imports

MORE EIA FRAUD!

This story is just now getting started!

API is the premier source for petroleum industry data and information. API's data and statistics are accurate, comprehensive, timely, and quoted widely.

Three days ago, the American Petroleum Institute said, "Crude inventories fell by 6.7 million barrels in the week to July 1 to 520.9 million, compared with analysts' expectations for a decrease of 2.3 million barrels. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by only 80,000 barrels.

The EIA report disagreed completely and was extremely bearish. U.S. crude oil imports averaged about 8.4 million barrels per day last week, up by 808,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 8.0 million barrels per day, 11.6% above the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 765,000 barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 61,000 barrels per day last week.

It went on to say that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.2 million barrels from the previous week. At 524.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at historically high levels for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.1 million barrels last week, but are well above the upper limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels last week but are well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories rose 2.7 million barrels last week and are near the upper limit of the average range.

Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 3.4 million barrels last week. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged over 20.5 million barrels per day, up by 3.0% from the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged about 9.8 million barrels per day, up by 2.5% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged over 3.9 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up by 1.5% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied is up 11.7% compared to the same four week period last year.

This all comes back to a sudden unexpected rise in imports that the other two reporting agencies did not see coming!

Somebody is lying and playing games!

My money bets it is the EIA because they always announce clauses that they could be wrong!

For example, in all the PDF files, they insert a clause that says:

"The Energy Information Administration (EIA) disseminates independent and impartial energy information... By law, EIA’s data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government, so the views expressed herein should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or any other Federal agency."

They add, "The information contained herein should be attributed to the Energy Information Administration and should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or any other organization.

In other words, the EIA has no one to supervise them and no one to answer to. No oversight whatsoever!

Yet, their report that comes out last can move oil and gas prices in a heartbeat with no follow-up reports coming out until next week!

They also have a secrecy clause saying that anyone who gives them data can not identified. Here's what it says:

Confidentiality--The information reported on the weekly price survey Forms EIA-878 and EIA-888 is considered confidential in accordance with the Confidential Information Protection and Statistical Efficiency Act of 2002 (P.L. 107-347) and the information will be used solely for statistical purposes. Instructions to the forms include the following: “The information you provide will be used for statistical purposes only. In accordance with the Confidential Information Protection provisions of Title 5, Subtitle A, Public Law 107-347 and other applicable Federal laws, your responses will be kept confidential and will not be disclosed in identifiable form to anyone other than employees or agents without your consent. By law, every EIA employee, as well as every agent has taken an oath and is subject to a jail term, a fine of up to $250,000, or both if he or she discloses ANY identifiable information about you.”

No shit! Anyone can lie their butts off and they are quaranteed protection. This is indeed an inviation to lie like a dog!

CHK crashed after this report hit yesterday and no one can do anything about it because it is all their opinion and their soucres are confidential and this is all establish by law!

They can screw us in a heartbeat and laugh in our face!

I wonder what Donald Trump is gonna say about this bit of protected government fraud?

Ref: Any PDF file on this page: https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/testimony.cfm

NEVER TRUST THE EIA!

THEY REPORT LIES AND UNVERIFIED DATA! NO ONE GOVERNS THE HONESTY OF AN EIA REPORT!

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. It disseminates its own independent energy information and not under the control of anyone in the world. It can easily be bought and paid for by any crooked bastard why enough money! NEVER trust an EIA Report!

"By law, EIA’s data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government, so the views expressed herein should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or any other Federal agency." (ref below)

In other words, "by law" the EIA has no one to answer to for it's data reports. It's analyses, and forecasts are not approved or verified by any employee of the United States Government. By law, the opinions and data reported by the EIA cannot be double checked any Federal agency including the President of the United States! They can do and say as they damned well please! They answer to no one except the highest bidder!

The other day the EIA announced that oil imports were much higher and this caused the US oil and gas market to crash! This was more likely a damned lie so they could collect a fat payoff!

The EIA says the 2014 projected reductions in net imports primarily reflect a combination of more robust domestic petroleum production and the effects of the significant lowering in petroleum demand and its projected growth. They say the decline in crude oil prices since mid-2014 and resulting decline in drilling activity in tight oil plays and in crude oil production over the past year will continue into 2017. They also say that this has increased the forecasted share of net crude imports into the US over the next few years.

Do you believe it? Or is it a lie? Only God and the crooked bastards that payoff the EIA know for sure!

In other words, our US producers are being responsible and cutting their production due to low prices but this slow down by US producers is causing imports of crude to increase and this explains why US oil prices are falling regardless of what US producers do to help raise prices a little!

In other words, the oil war continues with OPEC and the Saudis regardless of what ANYONE says!

The EIA even says that domestic crude oil production will eventually reduce the net import share to less than 10% by 2040. In other words, we can expect to be overloaded with imports for the next 24 friggin years!

Or, they lying or telling the truth? Only GOD, the EIA, and the crooks that pay them off know the truth! NEVER EVER TRUST AN EIA REPORT AGAIN!

So there you go, the friggin EIA can report anything its wants to and now one can do a thing about it including the %^GH#@ President of the United States. How you like them apples?

Reference: https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/testimonies/howard_06222016.pdf or read any pdf file on this page: https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/testimony.cfm

You have my permission to copy and paste this information all over the Internet 10,000 times if you want to!

FRAUD IN THE EIA!

The EIA provides tons of information on oil and gas issues! This information supposedly "also helps us better understand possible sources of errors they may make." In the area of statistical information, the EIA acknowledges that "errors in statistical estimates are unavoidable." In other words, they can't prevent mistakes!

These errors generally fall under the categories of sampling and nonsampling errors. Sampling errors result when estimates are based on a sample and not all the data. They say that "quantifying non-sampling errors is more difficult, but the EIA does provide information to assist stock traders in understanding those possible error sources."

In other words, they make errors all the time but they will tell you how to sort them out but it will only take you a week and require a staff of 50 online detectives!

And they promise to correct these errors and issue revisions if they get caught lying. They say, "If a substantive error is detected after a product is disseminated, EIA will make correction and issue an errata notice or other notification as appropriate." If they don't get caught, they will keep their mouths shut and let the error stand.

They also say that, "EIA information products may include information that is expected to be revised!" In other words, they may report lies and say that they were white lies that they expected to revise if they got caught!

The "EIA utilizes procedures to protect survey information collected under pledges of confidentiality." In other words, the can collect bullshit from anyone and offer them confidentiality. This is like taking the 5th Amendment during your fraud and bribery trial!

In other words, the EIA offers no reason to believe them other than the longest list of razzle dazzle bullshit you have ever read in you life! Why would they be so worried about being honest if they were honest in the first place? The only reason to bullshit people by telling how honest you are is because you are liar!

This is so typical of government agencies trying to protect themselves from fraud and bribery charges!

Read the lost list of denials and excuses they declare! Link

You are free to post this message all over the world or copy it, rewrite in your hand and take credit for it and spread it anyway possible. The EIA is pure fraud and stock manipulation!

NEVER BELIEVE THE EIA!

THE EIA COMMITTED FRAUD!

NO ONE GOVERNS THE HONESTY OF AN EIA REPORT!

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. EIA disseminates independent energy information.

"By law, EIA’s data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government, so the views expressed herein should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or any other Federal agency."

In other words, "by law" the EIA has no one to answer to for it's data reports. It's analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any employee of the United States Government. By law, the opinions and data reported by the EIA have nothing to do with any Federal agency including the President of the United States or the damned Pope! They can do and say as they damned well please! They answer to no one!

The EIA says the recent decline in crude oil prices since mid-2014 and resulting decline in drilling activity in tight oil plays and in crude oil production over the past year, will continue into 2017, and has increased the forecasted share of net imports in overall U.S. petroleum consumption over the next few years. However, the EIA says that domestic crude oil production will reduce the net import share to less than 10% by 2040.

So there you go, the friggin EIA can report anything its wants to and now one can do a thing about it including the %^GH#@ President of the United States. How you like them apples?

https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/testimonies/howard_06222016.pdf

You have my permission to copy and paste this information all over the Internet 10,000 times if you want to!

NO ONE GOVERNS THE HONESTY OF AN EIA REPORT!

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. EIA disseminates independent energy information.

"By law, EIA’s data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government, so the views expressed herein should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or any other Federal agency."

In other words, "by law" the EIA has no one to answer to for it's data reports. It's analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any employee of the United States Government. By law, the opinions and data reported by the EIA have nothing to do with any Federal agency including the President of the United States or the damned Pope! They can do and say as they damned well please! They answer to no one!

The EIA says the recent and projected reductions in net imports primarily reflect a combination of more robust domestic petroleum production and the effects of the significant lowering in petroleum demand and its projected growth, as discussed previously. The decline in crude oil prices since mid-2014 and resulting decline in drilling activity in tight oil plays and in crude oil production over the past year, will continue into 2017, and has increased the forecasted share of net imports in overall U.S. petroleum consumption over the next few years. However, the EIA says that domestic crude oil production will reduce the net import share to less than 10% by 2040.

So there you go, the friggin EIA can report anything its wants to and now one can do a thing about it including the %^GH#@ President of the United States. How you like them apples?

https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/testimonies/howard_06222016.pdf

You have my permission to copy and paste this information all over the Internet 10,000 times if you want to!

One Last Point!

Chesapeake is hedged at higher oil and gas prices than we have right now so what is really to worry! We just got to wait until August 8 quarterly report. We should get a nice surprise!

The crooked EIA bastards are a lot smarter than I am!

Here's the story: The EIA report raised crude and distillate imports swelling the US local inventory and overwhelming estimates. These imports are impossible to verify so they get away with the big fat lie! Their methods have been practices and used to manipulate oil and gas prices for decades so they will beat anyone on the outside looking in.

So by now the short manipulators have been able to clear themselves and lower prices on what should have been a fantastic day!

Sorry about that... everyday I learn more and more crooked tricks surrounding stock trading. This will be my last year to deal with stocks! I would advise all traders to do the same. Let the manipulators manipulate each other in a big circle jerk off.

I do see the day coming soon when they will destroy stock trading -- no more suckers will be left to steal from!

But I'm still a CHK bull holding out for a nice profit! But CHK will be the last stock I ever own! I'm gonna stick all my extra money in vacant land and leave it all to my grandkids!

Very saddened by the way this great bullish day got smashed!

More lies on gasoline report by EIA! Shorts and manipulators fighting as hard as they can and indeed temporarily reverse the deserved gains.

I will explain how the gas report is bullish.

Crude oil stocks in the United States declined by 4.053 million barrels in the week ended June 24th, 2016, following a 0.917 million fall in the previous week and compared to market expectations of a 2.3 million drop. It is the sixth straight decline in oil inventories. Meanwhile, gasoline stocks rose by 1.367 million barrels, which I will explain soon.

Just hang on to your share and don't be cheat out of them!

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday was expected to report a 42-billion-cubic-feet (Bcf) injection for the week that ended July 1, according to a survey of analysts by S&P Global Platts, the leading independent provider of information and benchmark prices for the commodities and energy markets.

The actual injection was only 33 Bcf, much less than the five-year average of a 77-Bcf build. The below-average build would mark the ninth consecutive week the injection was below historical averages and would continue to cut into and storage surplus going into the heating season starting November 1st, 2016!

We might indeed run out of natgas by March 2017 if we get a cold winner.

This is highly BULLISH but at the moment, the shorts want to deny it and sell natgas short so they can clear their other short positions at reduced prices.

This is pure market manipulation and will not last long because it cost the shorts far too much money!

Just hang on to your shares. $5.00 is not far away!

short selling into futures prices holding natgas down temporarily!

33 Bcf injected into storage versus 77 Mcf average injected over last 5 years. 43 BCF expected! VERY BULLISH FOR NATGAS PRICES!

5 million shares traded from 30 minutes. Up 3.3%. Much higher prices coming after natgas storage injection results released at 10:30 AM.

I see $5 right around the corner!

The fraud squad has today announced it is seeking a retrial for two ex-Barclays traders accused of Libor-rigging offences.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/07/business/dealbook/britain-seeks-retrial-of-barclays-traders-in-libor-case.html?_r=0


I've pounded the table abouts these crooks for years! Market Maker fraud big issue!

Barclay's Bank Traders sent to Prison!


I told you Barclays, a likely CHK market Maker was a big crook! Now some of their traders are sent to prison for 6 years.

News will follow!

14-day forecast bullish for gas

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/

Notice that the above normal temperatures correspond with the above average participation and vice versa. In other words, the most populated areas in the US will be hot and humid and need to keep the air con running day and night!

I seen something weird!

I was walking in the mountains about an hour ago. I seen strange golden bird flying towards me. As it got closer, I realized it was a rather large drone. As it got even closer, I could see CHK in big letters written on the fuselage. Even closer still, I could see that it was towing a $5 bill on a short string behind it! Was this a message from the ghost of McClendon?

Seriously, I keep seeing $5 bills floating around in my head. Somebody is trying to send me a message that a $5 stock price is very near.

Sometimes you have to day trade CHK. I wonder when they will stop trading on oil prices and start trading on natgas?

Positive EIA Injection at 10:30 AM

We should get a low injection into storage at 10:30 am. I expect big pop in Natgas price along with big pop in CHK.

Looks like the BIG MANIPULATION of the oil and gas sector by the big market maker banks is finished. Time to head north to $5 now!

Fell very positive about Chesapeake Energy as the big turnaround story of 2016! Still holding to me $10 prediction by January 2017. All we need is an average winter with a few deep snow storms!

Gas may spike to $5/mmBtu if we get big Northeastern snowstorm!

Only 100 shares of brent crude traded in premarket. I think the manipulation is close to running its full course. I also think the major traders know the sham going on and will be buying Chesapeake hot and heavy when the market opens. The shorts better start clearing in premarket--the volume is kinda low there too and the price is coming back up. This attack is about finished!

Bloombergs background loaded with red. Talking heads were red dress and red ties. They are going all out. They got natgas down 30 cents in a few days. Now they are pumping out the lies to destroy oil and banks!

Never seen them so desperate.

Strange thing is they got very little volume in natgas trades. It looks like the market has been halted! Strange things I never seen before. This is how you learn!!!!!

8 fast trades knocks premarket price down 8 cents! Shorts out in full force! They are knocking gas down as low as they can and attacking oil with every weapon they have! The are desperate SOB's

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/chk/premarket-chart

UNITED STATES NOW HOLDS MORE OIL RESERVES THAN SAUDI ARABIA

July 04, 2016 Link
By Per Magnus Nysveen, Head of Analysis, Rystad Energy

THIS IS BULLCRAP FROM MANIPULATORS AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT'S WORKING!


A new independent estimate of world oil reserves has been released by Rystad Energy, showing that the US now holds more recoverable oil reserves than both Saudi Arabia and Russia. For US, more than 50% of remaining oil reserves is unconventional shale oil. Texas alone holds more than 60 billion barrels of shale oil according to this new data.


The new reserves data from Rystad Energy also distinguishes between reserves in existing fields, in new projects and potential reserves in recent discoveries and even in yet undiscovered fields.

In other words, this is a friggin joke based on oil reserves we never knew we had and might not even have. This is NOT PROVEN RESERVES!

Take this to the bank and they would laugh in your face.

"Other public sources of global oil reserves, like the BP Statistical Review, are based on official reporting from national authorities, reporting reserves based on a diverse and opaque set of standards."

An "opaque set of standards?" What the hell is that!

Some OPEC countries like Venezuela report official reserves apparently including yet undiscovered oil, while others like China and Brazil officially report conservative estimates and only for existing fields.

Rystad Energy now estimates total global oil reserves at 2092 billion barrels, or 70 times the current production rate of about 30 billion barrels of crude oil per year.

In other words,this stupid outfit "guesses" there is 70 time current production! And I am supposed to sell me stock based on this stupid guess!


The articles goes on to say that current data confirms that there is a relatively limited amount of recoverable oil left on the planet.

In other words, the rest of the world data says we are running out of oil, but this friggin idiot "guesses" we have a 70 year supply or more!

God... give me a break from all this bullcrap! What really gets me is all the idiots that believe it!

This is market manipulation in action and deserves the attention of the SEC and possible fine and jail time. But this is all legal because it qualifies all the lies as estimates and guesses on undiscovered oil reserves!

We got one more day of this shit and then I believe it will start to turn. Don't give away your shares!

Rystad Energy’s headquarters are located in Oslo, Norway with offices in London!

Two months ago the same idiot said:

Jarand Rystad, managing partner at Rystad Energy, told an audience at the Offshore Marine Forum in Singapore Tuesday that offshore firms should hang on to their employees and assets, forecasting that oil prices will rise to $80 by 2018 – and up to $105 by 2020.

2016 is a good "time for the opportunist,” he said, adding that firms with deep pockets and a long term strategy are positioned to reap the benefits of a price recovery.

"Even if you make very aggressive forecasts on current trends such as electric cars, LNG shipping and alternative energies, these won't make any meaningful structural impacts on the oil industry for another 10-20 years," he said.

http://www.maritime-executive.com/article/rystad-100-oil-by-2020

Pay Close Attention Here!

My underlying message is an example of market manipulation and spreading of false information by the media.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/05/us-oil-reserves-surpass-those-of-saudi-arabia-and-russia.html

The info was first released by the Financial Times of London so do consider the source.

The bold fabrication in the 1st video is that the US has more oil reserves that any country in the world according to one lonely research group in Norway. In other words, a story with no supporting follow-up studies.

The 2nd fabrication in the 2nd video is that oil prices will drop back to the $30 range due to oversupply. In other words, the message is that the US is awash in the world's largest oil reserves and will be always by awash in cheap oil for decades to come. WTI will drop into the 30s and never recover.

The funny thing is that the more you think about the information as laid out in a confusing manner, the more you see the manipulation. In other words, you need to put on bullshit detectors to pick the crap in these reports.

The first thing you are expected to believe is that the US has more oil reserves than the Saudis and Russia. But notice that after they inform you of this fact, the announcer quickly tells you about research that disputes this outright lie.

I point this out because this is slick stuff done professionally to fool you into selling your oil stocks!

To suggest a drop in WTI is the reason for CHK to dive is a mistake. You should listen to some intelligent experienced traders, and try to get a grip on what really moves the financial world, especially oil and gas.

Oil and gas markets and financial institutions are the most manipulated stocks all over the world and thus the easiest to move. Folks should not try to simplify old-time market manipulation.

Sure CHK trades with oil and gas prices just like the entire sector. Most of this trading is now done by computers working on algorithms designed and written by physicists, psychiatrists, and a thousand other experts employed by world banks that are heavily involved in Market Making and stock market manipulation.

These cats are EXPERTS. They have large staffs of top financial scientists that search for ways to move stock prices in their favor and to create $100's of billions of market churn. Make no mistake, these manipulators are big banks that have taken over as MARKET MAKERS and they all fake the bid and ask prices to lead trading dummies around like blind fools. One of the biggest and best, Barclays Bank of England, no doubt a Market Maker of Chesapeake and maybe a Market Maker of 50% of the oil and gas sector, is the worst crook of all.

This current manipulation works like this: This group of banker thieves decided they can use the british bullcrap to create more fear in the market. They work out their plan and position themselves to take advantage. They have friends in high places that would sell their own mother into prostitution for a pound or two. They own or have control over a lot of the media. They are like the old Rothschild's Group only much smarter with huge computers.

They started this time by creating fear that the Bank of England might go broke if the British government did not divert a few Billion pounds to save it. They hammered away with the media that the situation in the UK may bring down the EU, which "MIGHT" cause the whole world to slip into deep depression like what happened in 1929.

Then on Monday morning in Europe, while the US market was closed for a holiday, they started the plan by shorting natgas and causing it to dive off a cliff--straight down within seconds. If you create a chart of what happen to natgas on the morning of July 4th, you can see the sudden drop from $2.99 to $2.87/mmBtu. This was easy because the US market (the real market for UNG) was CLOSED! This move was planned a week in advance.

Then they shorted UK and EU banks and created fear of a market crash was underway. Next they moved over to oil prices and started selling crude short. This is like pushing a huge round boulder down a mountain. All you have to do is start it rolling--it will crash down on its own.

Then the Market Making Banks started buying gold and silver and moving money into safe havens to create the illusion of a crash. This is easy for them because they have no trading expense!

It worked! They scared the hell out of all the day traders worldwide who immediately started moving out of stocks into cash and then gold. The normal bulls and bears were shocked and started following the stupid short sellers into cash, gold, and silver.

In other words, the big Market Makers--the banks that make every electronic trade and have total control over the bid and ask prices--created FEAR FEAR FEAR that the financial world is going to crumble all because the stupid brits decided to leave the EU.

There is no way that all the sweet crudes in the world should crash simply because Brent Crude might suffer due to lack of British Pounds going into North Sea production. If Britain fails, Brent Crude should drop and US produced WTI should move UP! There is also absolutely no reason US NatGas futures should crash because Britain leaves the UK.

And there is no reason to think that natgas demand and Chesapeake Energy will instantly collapse because of a weak recession! Natgas trades on supply and weather demand. Nothing else except STUPID FEAR AND IGNORANCE can move natgas prices!

You want to know when it will all turn around? Watch Bloomberg's TV for the background color to slowly fade from red to blue or green. Watch for red ties and red dresses to disapear from all the experts and talking heads.


Or you can just listen to me and I'll keep you updated! Sure, I act a little funny at times, but did you ever see a level-headed genius? All of us really smart people are a bit wacky. I think that's why you like me so much! Smile grilfreind!

There is no fundamental reason for this sell off other than market manipulation specifically to create fear.

Besides, this is really not a strong sell off for CHK. We will likely hit 41 million share which is our average 3-month volume. Without increase in volume there is no confirmation of price. The fundamentals are screaming market manipulation. And there is no fundamental reason for natgas to crash to $2.76 and then STOP trading. This is really some weird shit.

There also appears to be false bid and ask numbers being posted by the market makers which I am sure Barclays is one of them.

It now looks like we are heading back north as the shorts try to clear. They stole a lot of cheap shares so its like that had a fantastic day. Now they've got to reverse the reasons to sell and start pumping reasons to buy.

How sick does in get?

12 million shares in one hour... sell side getting weak.

This is the way it works during a short attack. The nervous sellers sell out first and then the not so nervous start to sell but they want more money so the price bottoms and then starts back up. Then the shorts hit it again quickly and drop 3-4 cents in seconds and then it starts back again and they keep trying to scare more weak hands. A few more weak sellers take the higher price and then the selling really slows down. As the day wears on, the shorts start getting worrying about clearing all the shares they sold to run the price down. They start paying more. Now we get down to guys like me holding 80K shares. I'm not gonna give them back for less that $4.58 or $4.60 and maybe not then.

The same thing is happening with natgas. Volume is dropping fast. It took a lot of share to run the price down so low. Many that dumped out early will be buying back in so the price starts to move back up kinda fast. It is starting to turn now--volume picking up

The helps raise CHK prices and before the end of the day, the stupid sell off ends with the price moving back up much more than I paid.

Grilfreind, how many shares you own? 3K? Do you ever do any research? What is your assessment of CHK?

What price will CHK be selling for at this time next week?

How my Bcf will be injected into storage this weak? Any idea?

10 million shares in 45 minutes. We are getting rid of a lot of weak shareholders. The more bad news Bloomberg's spits out, the more weak shares will run out of CHK. Natgas volume very high! Price down 20 cents from last week's high. this is just a nervous correction that happens often when the big boys attack the markets.

Dow futures only down 136 points... no big deal.

Believe it or not, this is good for CHK and the market. Let the scared buyers run out and be sorry later. They will learn a lesson and stick in next time the big boys pull another stunt.

Just bought 100% of my old position back at $4.24. I was waiting for advice from you but got scared I might be stomped out if I did not grab it while I could!

The only thing I can say it is just another market manipulation on natgas prices. $2.80/mmBtu is the most ridiculous down move I've ever seen.

The entire selloff is just another big boy manipulation.

I really don't know what oil will do but Natgas will turn around and head north very quickly because the price of natgas is all about weather demand and production and not at all about anything going on outside the USA! And in the end, the price of CHK is all about the price of natgas.

We just have to wait until the manipulators finish and then they start buying back their shorts.

GrilFreind, More Bad News;

Attacks coming left and right:

Chesapeake Energy: Watch The Downside
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3986044-chesapeake-energy-watch-downside

Chesapeake's $10 billion mortgage raises money, eyebrows
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3986044-chesapeake-energy-watch-downside

Crude and natgas prices dropping like a stone! What are we gonna do? Can you explain any of this and give me a little encouragement? I dumped out Friday at $4.58. It looks like CHK is going to crash. Where should I try to get back in? Should I wait for $3? I'm sure you must have a word of advice for us investors. Have you done any research lately? Can you explain this sudden negativity? Thanks for any help!

Hope you enjoyed your 4th of July! Good luck today.

Grilfreind, More Bad News!

Something is causing the oil and gas prices to drop like a stone. Please help us longs find what's wrong. Their talking about the fallout from briskit maybe causing the world market to collpase. I'm fresh out of ideas and need you opinion. I dumped 80K shares Friday at $4.58 -- should I get back in if CHK drops to $4.20? Or, should I wait till its hits $3.50?

Hope you had a wonderful July 4th. Did you set off any fireworks?

Bad News!

Natgas dove off a cliff in Europe. Dropped almost 10 cents. Crude is down. I guess gasoline use is also way down. Seems like people are not driving much as everyone thought.

Have a nice 4th of July grilfreind!


Oh... I finally figured out what %hellip is: Its html code for 3 dots ...

Lawsuits like this are common in the oil patch. The contract the land owner's signed says if CHK does not have a profit, there is no royalty payments. This is common-sense clause in all oil and gas contracts. This is just bloodsucking group of lawyers trying to get money out of Chesapeake. It will likely go on for a decade or more unless CHK offers them a small settlement of which most will go to the lawyers. If an oil and gas company loses money, why should they pay royalties to the landowners?

On the other hand, a suit to clean up an environmental mess is far more serious for Chesapeake shareholders unless they go bankrupt.

I'm equally sure Chesapeake has its own law group on retainer.

And, you'll see this announce maybe 20 times over the next 6 months.

Forget about it!

New Prediction for NatGas!

As you know, hot weather is the key to natgas demand and prices in the summer injection season. If we inject less gas into storage, there's a damned good chance that we could enter the winter heating season (November 1, 2016) with a shortage of gas, especially if we get a bitter cold winter.

Bottomline is that we are betting on three things. How much natgas can CHK pump out of the ground, how hot will the summer be, and how cold will it be this winter.

CHK is now leasing 10 tier 1 rigs that can drill 10,000-foot long lateral holes in the layer of shale rock. They frac this shale and the oil and gas pours out under great pressure. Each rig can drill one well about every two weeks and cost about $500 per foot. It takes about 2 months to get a well drilled and fraced so by the end of August, CHK will have an additional 10 deep lateral wells spewing out oil and gas. They are also busy repairing older wells, cleaning them out and etc. And, they are busy fracing some of the DUCs they have on hand. Production should jump sky high by the end of September.

The weather report looks humid and HOT AS HELL for the US for the first 2 weeks in July. Because gas production is not running excessively, this heat will lower the amount being injected into storage and probably set a new all time low record for at least 2 weeks in a row. So, if I am right, natgas will jump past $3/mmBtu to at least $3.25/mmBtu. It is at $2.98 right now!

Then what you will see is that everyone will start taking about a severe shortage of natgas by March 2017 if winter is a bit cold. In other words, we are headed into the PERFECT STORM for natgas. Chesapeake will be selling for $10 by the middle of January 2017 as I been predicting for many months at the same time old Wisecrack has been making fun of me!

He who laughs last wins!

An old CHK investor told me that CHK trades mostly on oil prices because oil was their most profitable product a few years back when oil was $140.00 a barrel. He suggested just hang in and it would soon switch to trading more on natural gas like SWN.

Sounds about right to me.

I also think yesterday was a crazy day because options expired on the same day they released very low storage injections numbers.

So all we got to worry about now is the price of oil and natural gas and the weather.

Sorry I go so ticked off at CHK but I was ready to dump out. I got too many shares on margin and was facing a forced sale.

I just dumped 20K at $4.50 just so I can ride this puppy down without worrying too much. I can ride it down to $3.85 now! Makes me feel better! If it gets cheap again, I'll buy the 20K back I sold today. The way its trading, I'm sure I get the chance.

I've also decided to tell the board who I am so everyone will know more about me. I will do it in the next day or so.

Puts and Calls Question?

I never invested in or even looked at puts and calls. I always thought they were a stupid play! But I do recall a friend said that the day these things expire could cause the stock to drop.

Could this be the reason CHK has a shit day yesterday?

How about natgas prices? Could puts and calls cause natural gas to trade as stupid as it did yesterday?

New Deal to Supply Chile with LNG

The recent opening of the new deeper/wider Panama Canal has also opened an opportunity to ship LNG from the GOM north and south up and down the entire Eastern Pacific Coast and Asia. Chile just signed a 20 year deal to buy 33/mmBtu of US gas per year with more deals coming. This comes to 7 ship loads per year. Every little bit counts. US LNG will succeed all along the Pacific coast that is starving for clean power supply, but we are looking out 2 to 3 years.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-30/chile-just-gave-cheniere-a-big-reason-to-build-another-lng-plant?cmpid=yhoo.headline Less

NatGas Inventory at Start of Heating Season (1 Nov. 2016)


June 2: 32% higher than 2015, 35% higher than five-year average

June 9: 28.5% higher than 2015, 32% higher than five-year average

June 16: 26.3% higher than 2015, 30% higher than five-year average

June 23: 25% higher than 2015, 28% higher than five-year average

June 30: 23% higher than 2015, 25% higher than five-year average

Estimates inventory for the injection season ending 31 October 2016 based on 2% average drop per week times 4 weeks in July, August, September, and October! (4 X 4 X 2% drop per week = 32% drop in inventory at the end of injection season and 7% lower than 5-year average.) This assume June weather will average July, August, September, October! But this excludes increased demand for LNG exports and increase in Mexico exports, so this estimate is on the safe side unless production rises sharply.

Since drilling is just now starting to pick up, it will take a least 3 months for production to rise. Furthermore, CHK told me they were now drilling 7,500 foot laterals with a total of 10 tier 1 rigs. The old cost was $1000 per foot, but the new tier 1 drilling cost for the 7,000-foot laterals is now under $500 per foot and will produce more oil and gas for longer than tier 2 and 3 wells. This supposedly drops the cost of a MMBtu down under $2, which will make them far more profitable. CHK also told me that they plan to be drilling 10,500-foot laterals by the end of 2016. This should bring cost down to $1.75 per mmBtu.

But this causes a bit of fear! Is there enough tier 1 rigs to meet the shale drilling demand in the US and Canada? From the way its looks, there is a looming shortage of tier 1 rigs. And, it makes zero sense to drill an expensive hole with a tier 2 unless drillers drop the price for these rigs to under $250 per foot. But I don't see how they can do it. I looks like all the tier 2 and 3 rigs are nothing but scrap.

If there is a shortage of Tier 1 rigs to drill the long laterals, it is highly doubtful that production can indeed increase until maybe the end of November or December.

So bottomline is that natgas storage will no doubt enter the winter heating season at about the 5-year average!

On the other hand, hurricane season starts soon so there could be a lot of disruptions and flooding in and around the major gas plays that could cut production by 15%.

Then there is the other problem. If we get a bitter cold winter, then we will never have enough gas in storage to last us through the heating season.

Bottomline, we are at the mercy of the weather gods! Does anyone know any Weather God prayers, cold weather dances, chants, charms, or crystal balls we can consult?

If the weather lets us down, Chesapeake Energy will be eaten alive by the shorts!

Might as well play an oil stock since CHK does not move on gas prices. This is primary a gas stock that moves with crude. The problem for me is that I believe 10 times more strongly that we are headed to a gas shortage not an oil shortage.

This is nuts! Natgas up 2.24% right now. WTI down 2.99%, CHK down 4.3% ---twice as much as gas is up! Total opposite direction! Bullcrap!

I think the manipulators are gonna beat this company into the ground! Management don't seem to give a rat's butt!

I cannot recommend this stock any longer! My position is strong sell!