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I probably could have done better but I have been trying to get out since February and was messing around with the bid/ask back when it was around $1.80 and should have just sacrificed some price for volume. I just don't like the 15-month collection cycle and regulatory risk associated with it. I am also question their ability to hit $.30 for the year or get financing that is not at shark pricing or convertible/dilutive. There was also an unrelated article in the WSJ about a California hospital that was making a bunch of money fraudulently from back surgeries - while this was totally unrelated, it spooked me a little bit because I think the government could come in at any time and rule that the health care system should not have a loophole allowing this abnormal profit margin and driving up costs. If the doctors are willing to perform the procedures at 1/5th the price, why should insurers pay the 5x price? I basically just don't trust the government to let the free market operate and think this could be an area of risk. I bought in the $.60/$.70 range and then again at $1.10, so I'm satisfied to be out and move on to something else.
Another concern I had after yearend results came out was that cumulative collections were $3.3 million as of 4Q11 vs. cumulative revenue of $3.1 million through 3Q10 (so a better than 15-month collection cycle). After 1Q12, cumulative collections were $4.0 million vs. cumulative revenue of $3.9 million through 4Q11, so a greater than 15 month collection cycle. I hope everyone here gets rich off my sales while I do well on something else. I thank you guys for pointing this stock out to me on the VMC board as I never would have found it on my own. Best of luck.
Sorry guys, that was me. Now that I am finally out, SPIN is probably guaranteed to double within the next week:
05/15/12 Sold 1,000 of SPIN @ $1.38
05/15/12 Sold 500 of SPIN @ $1.45
05/15/12 Sold 86,213 of SPIN @ $1.35
05/15/12 Sold 9,200 of SPIN @ $1.40
05/11/12 Sold 500 of SPIN @ $1.35
04/13/12 Sold 200 of SPIN @ $1.60
03/12/12 Sold 100 of SPIN @ $1.96
03/05/12 Sold 12,943 of SPIN @ $1.90
03/05/12 Sold 7,650 of SPIN @ $1.96
03/05/12 Sold 1,000 of SPIN @ $1.98
03/05/12 Sold 500 of SPIN @ $1.97
03/05/12 Sold 500 of SPIN @ $1.95
02/16/12 Sold 5,000 of SPIN @ $1.85
02/14/12 Sold 25,103 of SPIN @ $1.80
02/13/12 Sold 587 of SPIN @ $1.80
02/09/12 Sold 10,100 of SPIN @ $1.80
SPIN - it is my current favorite although I'm a little leery of pink sheet stocks since getting burned on Electronic Game Card. Growth at SPIN will be rapid - as long as they can collect the cash on their A/R, it should take off.
KIK, on SMID - Here's my over/under for the quarter of 4Q10:
4Q10
Product Sales:
Soundwall Sales $2,685
Architectural Panel Sales 150
Slenderwall Sales 221
Miscellaneous Wall Sales 0
Total Wall Sales $3,056
Barrier Sales 859
Beach Prisms -
Easi-Set & Easi-Span Sales 978
Utility and Farm Product Sales 590
Miscellaneous Product Sales 200
Total Product Sales $5,682
Shipping and Installation 497
Engineering Revenue -
Barrier Rentals 201
Royalties income 420
Total Service Revenue $1,118
Total Revenue $6,800
SMID, KIK - this is currently my biggest holding by a wide margin. Have you ever looked at the numbers in much detail? I think that the royalty stream alone is worth the total value of the Company (~$1.7M per year at a 38% tax rate and 12% discount rate is over $1.85 per share).
Based on commentary in the Q, I'm expecting $6.8 to $7.0 million of revenue in 4Q09 vs. $5.2 million in 4Q09. FY10 EPS should be close to $.50 ($.22 royalties vs. $.28 operations).
I don't know why the Smith family doesn't pursue one of these options:
1) Sell the Company to someone larger who could exploit the patents better;
2) Find a fund to executive a Leveraged Management Buyout and take private; or
3) Agressively buy back shares at these undervalued levels.
Just my two cents. Appreciate any additional thoughts. Good luck to all.
littlefish - I've been accumulating SMID since your last message to me in mid-September and just finally finished out my position. Anybody got a guess at 3Q earnings? I'm expecting around $.13, but hoping for $.17.
Thanks SSKILLZ - It's going to take us 6 to close out the Yanks.
Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals, Rockies
Yankees, Rockies
Rockies
35
Go Rox!
Researcher - good observation. I had initially thought about adding in something for Excel, but didn't based on a comment in GSIG's last 8-K stating that bookings were down year-over-year in 2009 even with the addition of Excel. I also looked at Excel margins, which were 44% in '07 vs. 40% for GSIG, but YTD 2Q08 GSIG margins went down from 41% to 38%, so I assumed that would offset the benefit of Excel (I also noted that YTD 2Q08 revenue was down 10% from YTD 2Q07, so by using 2007 numbers I figured I was giving them the benefit of the doubt). At any event, seems pretty risky to me, but I am very skeptical in nature - however, if it was a very synergetic transaction and they have been successful in costcutting, then maybe GSIG could actually outperform 2007, but I wouldn't bet on it. Here's the quote from the 8-K:
"Bookings for the second quarter ended July 3, 2009 were approximately $40 million compared with bookings of $49 million for the comparable period in 2008. Bookings for the second quarter of 2008 include bookings of the Company’s general optics business, which was divested during the fourth quarter of 2008, and exclude bookings of Excel Technology, Inc., which was acquired on August 20, 2008.
The decline in bookings was primarily due to lower demand across all markets caused by the deterioration of the global economic conditions. The Semiconductor Systems Segment experienced a particularly pronounced decline in bookings, as the semiconductor industry has been undergoing one of the most severe downturns on record, which has had a particularly strong adverse impact on the memory sector. Bookings for that segment in the second quarter of 2009 declined 87% compared with the same period in 2008."
GSIG – I would advise caution, not only because of the restatement issue, but even without any restatements, there does not appear to be much upside here for the equity holders. I was intrigued by the postings related to GSIG and did a little research. Based on my calculations, if we assume that they can perform as they originally reported 2007 (would be considered an upside scenario given situation and economy), the performance would approximate annual EPS of about $0.06 for a P/E multiple of 15.5x and EBITDA of $45.5 million for a current EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.73x. Calculations are as follows:
EPS: 2007 numbers display Operating Income of approximately $29.3 million (excluding restructuring charges). The revised Term Sheet with the banks indicates $95 million of debt at 12.5%, so annual interest expense will be $11.6 million and I’m throwing in $1.2 million of interest income to reach a pre-tax income of $18.9 million. Subtracting 1/3rd for taxes results in $12.6 million of Net Income. The Term Sheet with the lenders gives them 80% of the Company (fully diluted) as part of a debt-for-equity swap from a loan taken out in 3Q08 to acquire Excel Technology ($210 million financed through Unsecured Notes and warrants). With approximately 42 million shares (rounding) outstanding prior to the Term Sheet, this would represent a revised share count of 210 million. $12.6M Net Income/210M shares = $.06 EPS and a 15.5x multiple vs. current share price of $.93.
EBITDA Multiple: EBITDA of $45.5 million was calculated as 2007 Operating Income of $22.65M + $6.65M Restructuring + $16.2 D&A. Enterprise Value calculated as 210 million shares x $.93 = $195.3 million + $95 million restructured debt less $75 million cash/Auction Rate Securities for a total of $215.3 million. This is a 4.73x multiple assuming that GSIG could achieve 2007 operating performance.
OT - 10bagger, SRRY, how ironic - has this ever happened before on this board?: Here's the other side of the transaction: Tue May 05 12:12:00 2009 Sell 12888 SRRY Executed @ $0.25
Account: xxxx-xxxx Your GTC sell order for 22700 SRRY at a limit price of $0.25 was partially executed at $0.25. There are 9812 shares remaining that await execution. See order # 191 for details.
I wasn't excited about selling it to you, but we need the cash to invest in a Private Placement. Good luck to you, we hope to be buying some back soon.
Wade, ALJJ - Here is the link to 1Q results:
http://www.pinksheets.com/otciq/ajax/showFinancialReportById.pdf?id=14872
DYII, researcher, I am still pretty heavy in this one and think it has minimal downside with a pretty solid upside. I like the following facts:
1. Over $1.50/share in cash.
2. Even without all the cash, current assets exceed total liabilities.
3. In '06 and '07, the May quarter was 23-25% higher in gross revenue than the February quarter (some seasonality).
4. Even if in '08, the May quarter is only sequentially equal to February, I think EPS can be $.12 to $.16 for the quarter, which when combined with the solid balance sheet justifies the current share price IMO.
5. Growth is coming in the more expensive bariatric procedures.
6. The China discussions and spinoff don't excite me, but I still like DYII nonetheless.
Earnings should be out in a about a month, so we'll see. As SSKILLZ always says, I could always be wrong though.
OT - Wonder if Jaybird will pull $12.50 out of his "multi million" account so he can start posting here again:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?Message_id=26508455&txt2find=million
WTEK: My WAG for the quarter is $2.15M in revenue with a similar EPS of $.03 to $.04, but likewise, hopefully I am too conservative. I've been using a regression methodology to track their revenue using backlog, inventory, and customer deposits and it has been fairly accurate.
I think a larger question is if the Leland and Lorita Bolen, 53% owners which have been accumulating more (also both on WTEK BOD and owners of Avis Industrial which owns American Baler) are making a move to take out the remaining 47%. This has been a nice increase without any news with some modest volume growth. I am assuming that no one on this board has any info from the annual meeting on April 21, 2008?
DYII - Researcher, I agree with you. If you remove all the one-time items from the recent results (collection of old receivables, building sale, discontinued ops, extraordinary gain), the quarterly EPS was still a solid $.18 and the company has $1.74/share in cash. Furthermore, up to $64 million still remains as upside on old receivables and the concern about workers' comp cases does not concern me too much because 1) the most significant growth is in bariatric procedures, which I highly doubt are workers' comp-related, 2) I would guess that the contractual rate assumed on workers' comp procedures is likely very unfavorable, and 3) The company made some reference that it has not bothered analyzing what sort of impact eliminating workers' comp cases would have, which makes me think it is immaterial. I hope the company is successful in accumulating shares anywhere below $6.
littlefish, ZYNX - I would actually consider it a positive that an insider is willing to provide working capital as it is a pretty strong indicator of confidence in growth. They buy the units up front and receive recurring revenue for them, so I see it as a positive. Unfortunately, I lowballed a bid for ZYNX which never got filled before it ran up so I am not in the action, but many congrats to everyone else. I feel obligated to root for it anyway since it is a Colorado company.
Also, I did get in on AYSI, so many, many thanks for that from both myself and my little investment club. This is one specific stock that I have promised myself not to sell too early and to try to enjoy the ride. Best wishes to all.
SMID-
Did anyone else get back into this after the last earnings release? I bought some immediately following the PR, but after further review, I noticed that they had a nice pickup in margins, which could be the result of smarter contract pricing and/or better product mix. Additionally, if you normalize for the Columbia plant which was a potential investment gone bad and will not be used going forward, along with the abnormal increase in bad debt, SMID earned about $.10 per share in 1Q, which is a seasonally slow quarter for the construction business. Looks pretty good to me in the low 2's
(NOTE: SMID's timing also did me a huge favor as I unloaded KRSL at $27 following SMID's PR on late Friday, May 11 to free up funds and KRSL dropped ~33% on the following Monday so my SMID transaction is already favorable).
littlefishl,
You're taking a huge risk buying OPBL, even at $.25. If BMO lost hundreds of millions on trades executed in the wrong direction by OPBL, there is potential of a lawsuit far in excess of OPBL's assets or market cap, which could lead to Chapter 11. This is entirely speculation, but seems to be a risk nonetheless. As another wise investor always states, I could be wrong though.
NAUG -
Funny you mention that stock. As I sit here reading your post, I'm wearing some crappy t-shirt that they sent me a couple years ago.
Happy New Year all and thanks for the intelligent conversations throughout the year.
Gilead, CRWS.OB, the gross margin decline was forewarned in their last Q, so I don't think that's an issue; overall, the operating income % actually went up about 80 basis points.
I was hoping for $.17 recurring, so off by $.004, but overall, I think that it was a pretty favorable report.
Not much action on this board, but I am looking forward to Wednewday. I'm guessing around $.17 EPS for the quarter from continuing operations and $.25 EPS for the net gain on restructuring. Any other projections?
I'll take 11/22/2006 7:41:00 AM
Thanks!
Researcher,
If a trade was accidentally executed for 10,000 shares of IBM in my account, I don't think I would mind too much - that would mean I had over $900,000 of buying power!
SSKILLZ - I agree with you on CRWS.OB, it is my 2nd largest holding as well. The upcoming EPS will be significantly skewed because of the one-time gain of $4 million from the debt restructure ($.25 per share after tax) that will be included in the results, but I think that the results from operations can comfortably report $.17 with potential for upward of $.20. One item from the 10-Q that I find confusing is the statement displayed below. The reason I find this confusing is because usually overabsorption results in an understatement of gross profit because overhead costs are absorbed that should not have been. Are they saying that these costs are sitting in inventory? My $.17 estimate assumes Gross Margin of FY4Q06 levels - what is your take on this?:
Gross Profit: Gross profit increased in both amount and as a percentage of net sales for the three-month period of fiscal year 2007 as compared to the same period in the prior year. Favorable variances in sales activity as compared to budget caused an overabsorption of overhead which is allocated to inventory upon purchase and then transferred to cost of sales as goods are sold. The overabsorption caused gross margin to increase by approximately 2% and such variance should reverse itself over the remaining quarters as all overhead costs are fully absorbed over the course of the year.
Buford, CRWS.OB - They typically issue all quarterly PR's on the morning of the 15th. I have an over/under of $.42 EPS for the quarter including $.25 Gain on Debt Restructure (net of tax) and $.17 from operations. I think (and hope) that I am being conservative. Anyone else got a prediction?
OPBL - I've analyzed this company a lot since its last earnings report. In my opinion, there is very little downside with this Company given its very high margins and growth. However, one ironic item with their capital structure is their debt profile. Since they have non-interest bearing notes that they got from the Chairman and officers, their balance sheet shows net debt of $1.776 million vs. their actual gross debt of $5.553 million. This is really no big deal, but it means that each quarter that they choose to pay down debt with their excess cash, a significant portion of each paydown (approx 2/3rds) is going to be recorded as interest expense due to expedited accretion of the discount. This does not impact the intrinsic value of the company, but will significantly understate EPS and could lead to more buying opportunities if they continue to grow at a rapid pace.
bbotcs, was the next-generation battery company Electro Energy? I will not post the ticker because it does not qualify for this board, but if successful, it will be a large end-user of nickel, which is what this discussion is revolved around anyway.
SSKILLZ, YPNT, I like this stock as well, but I would forewarn that although changes in G&A look favorable, you can expect that upcoming changes in Sales & Marketing will not be. The Company essentially capitalizes Sales & Marketing over 12 months, so in order to see what the Income Statement looks like on a cash basis, you need to add in change in deferred acquisition costs as marketing expense.
In 2Q06, Sales & Marketing was $2.1M and capitalized Sales & Marketing was $1.1M for a total of $3.2M. In 3Q06, Sales & Marketing was $2.5M and capitalized Sales & Marketing was $600K for a total of $3.1M. This gives you an idea of their quarterly marketing budget.
If they continue to spend $3.1M to $3.2M per quarter, the Company's expense will catch up to their cash spend, which in 3Q06, would have reduced pre-tax EPS by about $.014, or $009 post-tax. Another way to look at this is that the gross margin for approximately the next 12,900 customers will not be accretive to earnings because of increased amortization of Sales & Marketing, although you will see more net income turning into real cash on the balance sheet.
Thanks, jtomm -
I appreciate Koz's insight, but I worry that each exclamation point in his posts represent the incremental risk that he may be spraining his shoulder while patting himself on the back.
Bobwins, YPNT, the reason I think the amortization will catch up in 1Q is because the are now consistently spending $3.1M to $3.2M to acquire new customers. You can see amortization slowly creeping up from $1.5M to $2.1M to $2.5M. I am assuming that spending will remain relatively flat at $3.1 to $3.2M, so once they are in the final quarter of spending that level, the amorization will approximately equal spending.
I think you might be insinuating that they will continue to increase sales & marketing dollars, so amortization will not catch up. I don't think that they will continue to ramp up dollars into acquisition, but we will see. I worry that if they attempt this strategy, it will result in a higher acquisition cost per new customer with longer paybacks and that they will either be targeting customers who turned them down before or are less desirable.
By the way, have you ever seen anything related to either churn or gross adds for YPNT? If we knew either the % of customers that left each month or the number of new gross adds each month, we could back into actual sales and marketing acquisition costs per new customer, which would allow for an estimate of NPV and months to payback per new customer. I did a similar analysis for CORG several months ago which was not enjoyed by the board but turned out to be pretty accurate as the stock as now tanked. I think a similar analysis for YPNT would be extremely favorable; however, I don't know if the monthly customer retention rate for YPNT is closer to 98% or 92%. Not sure if this is ever disclosed.
Bobwins, YPNT, true to my name, I have to be skeptical about something, so here it is:
YPNT amortizes sales and marketing costs over a 12-month period. Therefore, in the past 2 quarters, the company has spent $3.2M and $3.1M in cash on sales and marketing; however, because of YPNT's amortization policy, they have only recognized $2.1M and $2.5M of sales and marketing costs. This inflates the EPS by approx 2.3 cents in FY2Q06 and 1.4 cents FY3Q06. If YPNT expensed sales and marketing as incurred, then the last 2 quarterly EPS's are -.0055 and $.0126, which does not paint as favorable of a picture.
This accounting "quirk" will not stop until the quarterly amortization matches the quarterly cash spend, which should occur in approximately FY1Q07. At that point in time, the EPS will be a little more reliable IMHO.
I am following this somewhat closely and am hoping to buy in sometime around that time period. On a positive note, they are beginning to attract higher quality customers (lower churn) and will either be able to continue this phenomenal growth and grow gross margin or reach maximimum size and significantly cut back on sales & marketing spend.
bigpike, if SMTX uses the extra $4M to pay down the current maturity portion of LTD (Sr. Secured) and has enough cash flow for the rest of the year to eliminate the remaining $2.5M of the current portion, the Company will still be faced with a heavy burden in 2007 and 2008.
If SMTX's operating earnings can remain at $2.6M per quarter (to Wade's point, this assumes that revenue growth or SG&A cuts will offset anticipated margin declines), the Company will have post-interest, pretax cash flow of approximately $1.5M per quarter (depreciation is approximately the same as CapEx, changes in working capital assumed to be flat).
Moving on, let's assume that the Company is able to keep the NOL's that it desperately needs so it doesn't have to pay taxes. As I am sure you are aware, there was significant disclosure that SMTX may not qualify under IRS Code Section 382 to maintain these tax benefits, but for this summary, let's assume NO taxes.
With $1.5M per quarter, SMTX could accumulate $6M in cash in 2007 (assumes no growth, but also no taxes). At the end of 2007, Subordinated Tranche A is due for $15M. At the end of 2008, the other $8M+ of the Subordinated Debt (Tranche B) is due, which is also currently PIK'ing. I am pretty sure that Wachovia, as the Secured lenders, will not be happy to watch cash leave the business and go to subordinated debt when they are the ones that are secured, especially when full payments likely cannot be made anyway. Therefore, I think a refinancing/recapitalization of SMTX is absolutely necessary in the near-term, which will likely result in equity dilution.
Anyway, you may agree or disagree, but this is why I have avoided SMTX and would caution others to recognize SMTX as a high-risk/high-reward proposition.
Wade, SMTX, don't they have a lot of subordinated debt coming due very soon? If they can't recapitalize and find a new source of funds to extend these maturity dates, there may be some issues because there is not enough organic cash flow to make these payments. IMHO, this appears to definitely be one contributer to the lower multiples being placed on the equity. What are your thoughts?
DDDC - I don't like the VOIP space - there will be a lot of competition based on price, which should significantly reduce margins, such as in the long-haul and LD spaces.
Also, did DDDC split or something since June 28th? If so, I missed it:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=11801559
PZA - "Other Income" - About $74K of it is amortized gain on a sale-leaseback transaction of two manufacturing buildings which occurred in April 2005 (non-cash). I believe that the rest of it is primarily related to sub-lease income (recurring).
I am not a big fan of non-cash revenue, but it doesn't bother me as much in PZA's case because depreciation is running $220K/quarter vs. CapEx of less than $20K/quarter, which means that cash flow before working capital and financing decisions is still pretty solid.
PZA - Nice to wake up to see that PZA earned $.083 in 2Q vs. a loss last year and $.043 last quarter. Another favorable thing I like to see is continued improvement in gross margin from 5.1% in 2Q05 to 8.7% last quarter to 9.2% this quarter. That's a great sign for the seasonality ramp that will occur at the end of the year.
Another thing to add on ILC - If you compare EBITDA multiples based on Enterprise Value, then RNDC was bought out at a multiple of approximately 8.5x TTM EBITDA ($106M/$12.5M). Assuming ILC's annualized EBITDA is $3M, this approximates a comparable Enterprise Value of $25.5M, which is only slightly above ILC's current EV. I don't see how they can hit $2 anytime soon unless they can increase annual EBITDA to approximately triple the current run rate.
Enterprise Value is clearly the more reasonable comp vs. EBITDA than Market Cap since all interest expense is being excluded from the calculation.
OK guys - here's my CPAK analysis:
I tried to be extremely conservative in this analysis, so keep this in mind as you review. I have attempted to value the Company based on future cash flow and current assets - my analysis is as follows:
In order to estimate pre-financing decisions cash flow per quarter, I took ]pretax income of $959K + interest expense of $71K] * 60% (assumed tax rate of 40% because they should be paying taxes soon) + Depreciation/Amortization of $575K, less assumed quarterly CapEx of $175K to estimate a total of approximately $1,017K per quarter. I then divided this by (1.12^(1/4)-1), which is an assumed annual discount rate of 12% to estimate an enterprise value based solely on discounted future cash flows of $33 Million (assumes constant cash flow). Adding back net debt of $0.9M (basically subtracting a negative amount because cash is greater than debt) and subtracting committed dividend of $350K results in an approximate Market Cap of $33.55 million, or $6.77 per share.
Next, the market should also give CPAK credit for an outstanding balance sheet. Therefore, knowing that the working capital of the Company is $30.0M from the press release, I proportionately added the increase since last quarter's balance sheet to A/R, Inventory, and Prepaid items and applied liquidation rates to "sellable" assets. This resulted in a total increase of $11.47M to company value ([$7.7M cash x 100%] + [$11.9M A/R x 85%] + [$21.9M Inventory x 25%] + [$2.3M Prepaid Items x 25%] + [$13.7M PP&E Book Value x 50%]). This increases estimate share price by $2.32, for a total of $9.08 per share, which I think should be the minimum of the fair market value of the Company.
Other observations related to CPAK:
* One reason the stock may not be getting the respect it deserves is because digital cameras are replacing tradional photos. However, the Company claims it is achieving growth in this segment.
* As everybody knows, there is a lot of one-time costs during the restructuring process (severance, contract termination payments, etc). If the last quarter included any of these costs, then cash flows will increase in future periods.
* My estimated quarterly cash flow may be extremely low. Last quarter, cash balance increased by $1.55M and a dividend was paid of $.35M. This suggests that pretax cash flow was approximately $1.9M, vs. my assumed pre-tax cash flow of $1.4M. For every $100K increase in quarterly cash flow the estimated value of the stock will increase by $.83.
* I really like the fact that share count has remained the same for several quarters in a row. If I were management, given that the stock seems undervalued, I would consider buying back shares in addition to or instead of issuing dividends.
* Finally, I don't see the advantage of CPAK being a public company given what is a ridiculously undervalued share price (in my opinion). Unless they plan to acquire other companies with stock issuance, there isn't much value in remaining a public company. It seems to me that management could buy out the Company at a premium to the current price and extract the value for themselves. If they did this, this would also reduce their obligations of being a public company and increase cash flow. In fact, I might fire off this posting to the CFO and see what he thinks.
Sorry for the long posting. If anybody is still awake after reading this, I would love to hear your thoughts on this summary.
gilead, LTFD - Thanks for the response. I see that your excerpt is from the 2004 10-K, so maybe they have accrued more than $300K since then, but this statement doesn't make it sound that way. It appears from this excerpt from the 2005 10-K that the interest rate is 12%, which would approximate $973,400 since Feb 2001:
"The potential outcomes in this matter fall within a range of $0 in the event of a full and final reversal of the judgment to the full judgment amount plus accrued simple interest of 12% from the date of judgment plus court costs. The company has accrued $1,570,000 on its financial statements related to this matter. The actual damages of $157,000 were paid in 2001."