Just wanted to join the celebration. Thursday will be 7 years since I bought my GRPS stocks. Almost sold them a couple of times, but something told me to hang on. Glad I did! Up 2,123%!

Still holding. This baby could make me a millionaire.

Good luck all!

Let's talk facts. One of the best indications of a well-run company is the asset to liability ratio. Most value investors won't invest if it's lower than 2:1. A low ratio doesn't necessarily show bad management, but a high ratio definitely shows good management. OPXS ratio was 3:1 as of the last report.

Very rare for a stock this price.

Another good sign of a well-run company is the ability to adapt. From the last quarterly report:

"The potential ramifications of the circumstances surrounding the 2012 Congressional budget sequestration have resulted in yet more uncertainty and potential cuts in spending by the U.S. military, and we have had to explore other avenues of revenue. We continue to explore other opportunities for manufacturing outside of our traditional product lines for products which could be manufactured using our existing lines in order to fully utilize our existing capacity."

Then we have this from yesterday's press release:

""This is an important milestone for Optex because it marks the first direct sale into South America without going through a large prime contractor; this direct transaction allows Optex to serve our customers in South America directly and to help influence their future procurements."

Some people said this was meaningless, but when you take it with the statements in the 10-Q, you can understand the context. They were probably popping corks at the time.

No numbers were given, but it was likely because it was not a financial press release. It was a business model press release. Management is showing they are doing what they said they were going to do. They're not announcing a contract, they're announcing the beginning of a new strategy that is starting to come to fruition.

It's also likely they did not say who they were selling to because it is a military contract. If they were just wanting to hide small numbers, if they were only pumping, they would have at least given some names. There is a reason both numbers and names were left out of that news release.

And that leads me to the final fact about Optex management. They DO NOT pump. They never have. Funny that they are being accused of that when most investors complain that they don't have enough PR (and here's a revelation for you: any quality company does not start its morning meetings with, "Okay, what can we do today to get this stock price up?").

They are very up front with investors - as we discussed earlier on this board concerning the dire warnings of the risk factors. Companies who pump don't go that deep into the risks. Investors may be pumping, but Optex is not. That's what matters.

If you're here to judge whether you should put money into OPXS, do this:

Go find another penny stock that has never had dilution or a reverse split. Go find another penny stock that has a 3:1 asset to liability ratio. Go find another penny stock with such high insider ownership. Go find another penny stock that actually makes something real and important with an established business plan. Go find another penny stock that is trading below book price.

You might find several that passes one or even a few of those tests, but OPXS passes all of them. Will OPXS stock price make you rich? Who knows. It might, it might not. But if you are into penny stocks, I bet you are invested in other stocks that don't show nearly the promise.

You're really reaching now, aren't you? If all you can find is a worst case scenario warning and one anonymous post, I think that says some pretty good things about OPXS.

And, BTW, your post has nothing to do with OPXS stock.

Europe could be in a war at any moment with Russia's sudden aggression. If our NATO allies decide to build up their defenses, they're going to want tanks, and they'll be buying them from us.

Even without that:

"While the U.S. periscope market has experienced an overall declined since 2009, Optex has mitigated a significant portion of the reduced U.S. military orders through increased market share in both foreign and domestic defense contractor markets."

No, you provided an opinion. We are discussing that opinion now.

"my interpretation for what company said is creating a liquid trading market is not their primary focus and they tell investors that trading activity is low and they cannot guarantee this will change etc, which shell confirmed "

That is not at all what the company was saying. Thus my need to explain investor warnings to you.

This from Google's last 10k:

Acquisitions and investments could result in operating difficulties, dilution, and other harmful consequences that may adversely impact our business and results of operations.

Do you think this means Google expects to dilute? Not hardly since they are about to do a split. It's just a worst-case scenario warning. Much of it is for the lawyers. Interpreting it as some forward-looking statement as you were implying is just dead wrong.

Yeah, it's often hard to tell how it works with OTC stocks. That's why they're called OTC stocks. The other day I bid on some shares and got a lot of shares at a cheaper price, even though they were never listed on the market depth.

Yes, and my reply to you was valid as well. Discussion, right?

So go write ten companies and ask them to guarantee that their current liquidity will remain the same and tell me how they answer. Go ask them to guarantee ANYTHING and tell me what kind of reply you get.

And I am not comparing companies, but I am comparing warnings of risks to investors. If all you did was read the risks and not weigh it with the positive aspects of the company, you'd never invest in anything.

There are different risks with every company. Penny stocks often lack volume. It's nothing new. But there are plenty of penny stocks that gained that volume and much more. Look at PLUG.

Seems management is being very up front with investors. That's often missing in penny stocks. But don't let honesty be confused with forecasting. There are plenty of forward-looking statements in that 10k that are positive, including the one I just posted.

All this discussion, the fretting, the negativity, the complaints of low volume, the complaints of price - all of this is moot within a millisecond of some positive news.

This entire downturn over the last ten trading days is on about 4.5 million transactions. If those average .03 cents per share, that's only about $135k. A contract won, an optimistic word to shareholders, a good earnings report, and ten times that amount of money could go into OPXS shares in one day.

I know not all shares are listed on the asks, but as it sits right now, there's only about 100k shares between where we're at and CDEL's shares at .048. That's about $3000.

Book value is .05. This stock is still cheap. Still a very good risk/reward ratio.

Um...because someone is wanting to sell their shares for .0257, but you're only offering them .023.

You're insinuating that they are making a prediction. Every 10k has these warnings. Go read Tesla's last 10k, it's the same way. Sounds scary. These sections are nothing more than the company being up front with the risks. We know volume is low, but it is getting much better.

Reading the warning to investors and trying to judge a stock is like picking up random bottles of medicine and trying to judge how well they work by reading the label warnings. They are just warnings. I'm much more interested in how well it works.

Such as:
Optex Systems Holdings delivers high volume products, under multi-year contracts, to large defense contractors and government customers. Increased emphasis in the past twelve months has been on new opportunities to promote and deliver Optex products in foreign military sales, where U.S.-manufactured, combat and wheeled vehicles, are supplied (and upgraded) in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Defense. We have a reputation for quality and credibility with our customers as a strategic supplier. We also anticipate the opportunity to integrate some of our night vision and optical sights products into commercial applications.

Nice hammer - almost PERFECT hammer, in fact.

Strong reversal signal in any book. A lot of scans will show that this weekend and maybe draw some more eyes. If we have a good day Monday, we could take off again.

Of course, I predicted at the beginning of the week we'd be sitting near or above .04 today, so what do I know? haha.

Chart still looking good despite a slow week.

Stay with me here: price does not mean that much at this point.

Figure this. $6500 could have pushed the price above .04 today (yes, certain things would have had to happen perfectly, but it was entirely possible). That's the nature of a low float stock going through low volume. Two or three big buys Monday and it could go to .05 and above pretty quickly.

But we could also just sit here around .03 a while with longs holding tight.

I'm okay with that. Any news and it will go. I'm really not looking for the big boom until May 15. Must be patient.

I think so too. We may have to get some low asks out of the way, but I see it finishing mid .03s.

Actually, I should say mid .03s AT LEAST. Could actually be a really good day.

Like the avatar by the way. I just bought a 19 a couple weeks ago. Really like it.

I was kind of sorry I didn't buy more earlier and when I saw the dip below .03 today I thought it was a good opportunity.

I still think OPXS will be in the high .03s by the end of the week. Might even see .04.

Just to be clear for those who are learning:

That doesn't mean there were that many sellers, but that many shares sold or bought. No idea how many buyers and sellers there were since groups of people could be buying or selling for the same price through the same broker.

That happened to me today. I bid through TDA and someone else bid the same price as me through the same broker. I was almost ready to cancel because I thought I had messed up my order. Never had that happen before.

Do you think shorting is any different? Someone has to buy those stocks for a short strategy to work.

No matter how you cut it, 1,095,208 sold today, 1,095,208 bought.

Yes, good volume, it's good to see this stock still has liquidity. Now it can start moving up again.

So I guess your theory is that some buys and sells just go into thin air? Those stocks disappear? Or maybe when someone sells, it just goes into a big pot where it waits to reemerge when someone wants to buy?

Try to sell a stock that's crashing sometime and see what happens. If no one wants to buy, you don't sell.

That's why this is called the stock "market." There are only buyers and sellers. There is no other option. If a stock is sold, someone has to have bought it. If a stock is bought, someone has to have sold it.

Pretty simple. I don't know where you're getting your ideas from.

Do you really find that to be some insight to investing? Let me rock your world.

There has to be a seller for every buyer. Every buy is also a sell. Today there were 1,095,208 buys and 1,095,208 sells.

Crazy, huh?

It's just the price agreed on that dictates a buy or a sell tag. If the person asking lowers his ask to meet the bidder, it's logged as a sell. If the person bidding raises his bid to the ask price, it's a buy.

The problem with this is that the bidder could raise his bid by 10% and then the seller could lower his ask by 2% and it would still be considered a sell.

It means nothing. Only the price means anything. We all know the price dropped today - no stock goes up every day.

Hope that helps you.

We've been through these low tests on 2/12, 3/7, and 3/14. Each time, it finished strong at the end of the day and made another run a couple of days after.

I was nervous on the first one, less so on the second, and ho-hum on the third. Now it's no sweat.

I really expected this to happen last Friday. I guess it just took a couple of days.

Averaged under .03. Didn't think I'd get a chance to buy that low again.

Add them to my 350k or so I've had since .0096 and I have almost 800k now.

And I've been through all this before since I bought in Jan. These dips won't scare me away.

Everything I've seen tells me it's going to run soon.

Maybe it will make you feel better to know that over half the volume today is me buying.

440k shares added this morning. Been trading hard. That's why I haven't checked in yet.

Whew!

I think we'll go back up some before the end of the day. This is just some correction. Not all longs are longs. They'll say that, but it's easy to say on a message board.

That's okay, though. Good to shake them out once in a while. We've been through days like this before on the way up.

Bottom line is that this is an undervalued stock.

Can't ignore moving averages. For OTC stocks like RGDEF, I use the 20 dma religiously.

When we broke out in late January, we kept along that line until the big breakout in late February. When it got too far off the 20 dma, it came right back down and kissed off of it in mid-March.

Now we're getting a little too far off of it again and it's starting to search for it.

I see this as a very healthy sign, and I sometimes even wish for it when I see a stock going up too fast.

Everything looks good. Really good.

Oh, ok, yep, that's who I was using.

I have noticed they are biased against them.

That's disappointing. I have 2m shares and was going to add another 2m.

No, it isn't.

DTC chill. I just tried to buy some shares and the order was canceled.

Wonder what's going on.

I think it could go much higher on good news - MUCH higher. Lack of it is sometimes frustrating with OPXS, but I'm not going to complain. Much better than the companies who release fluff every day to try to fool people. To me, less news releases means the company knows that it has a solid means to profit shareholders without banging a drum. I usually take it as a good sign.

Predictions?

Judging by the chart and what I saw on Thursday and Friday, I think we could drop a little bit more today, but charge back to the high 03s by Friday's close.

It would certainly be interesting to see what any bit of good news would do to this stock price right now. :)

I see a lot of posts here saying the longs own the float and are not selling (which I don't think is true - my opinion). If you believe that is true, then where will the volume come from?

Also, if you have a higher day of selling, it will have to be those longs that do the selling. Then they are not really longs. I'd just like to know what the thought is here.

Most things I've read on low float stocks say they need two other things to break out: good earnings and liquidity. Right now, OPXS doesn't really have either. But that could change.

I'm waiting for the next quarterly report. I think that is when OPXS has the potential to really do something special. I think it will be a good one. If it is, we are into serious money. :)

Speaking of that, does anyone have any ideas when it will be out? Looks like the quarter ends next week, but it usually takes Optex a month to a month-and-a-half to get the numbers out. That sound about right?

Until then, I like the way it's moving now. Slow and steady, rising and correcting, but always moving up. Nice.

Yes, I said all stocks are different, but there are no guarantees. That is my point. Nothing is going to change that.

I appreciate your post. Thanks for the welcome.

But the "hell no it won't happen" is the reason I felt compelled to come here and shake things up a bit.

You can look at my posts from my recent experience with ELTP. I was sure that was a solid stock. I was a pumper. I even called a short out, saying he was naive to be shorting. Over the next three days, ELTP lost almost 50%. I made $18k, but I left about $32k on the table.

And yes, every stock is different, but any stock can crash.

Lesson learned. You can fall in love with a stock, but don't ever for a second think it will remain faithful to you. There are plenty of zealously faithful longs in the investment world who lost it all at some point. It really doesn't mean a thing.

I also believe that when investors become way too optimistic, that's when it gets dangerous. Too many times now I've seen a stock get pushed up on nothing but word of mouth only to fall hard when there is nothing else there to support it. I want news. I want good earnings reports. That will bring the true strong long investors in.

That's just my opinion, of course, and I really didn't expect it to be accepted on this board.

So am I long? I don't know yet. I want to be, which is why I'd like to see a nice stable climb until we hopefully get a really good earnings report.

Great post. You said exactly what I wanted to say, but did it so much better. Thank you. You got yourself a follower.

Good luck with OPXS.

Haha. Like you didn't see it too.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=98683977

Too much of anything is bad for you.

You're not as clever as you think you are.

GO OPXS!

How's that? Now can I be part of the team?

Here we go. This is exactly what I'm talking about. I come here and post FACTS that don't agree with the board karma and I get accused of being a fake and a liar.

Maybe I think the same about you. Maybe you're just here to drive the price up so you can take your profits and run.

Sorry, but your "teamwork" theory is a little quixotic. If I thought I was relying on your teamwork, I'd sell right now. I hate to break it to you, but OPXS doesn't need you. That is fact. To pretend you have some superior right of ownership just because you pump is ridiculous.

My shares are worth just as much as yours right now.

I am long and I've held 350k shares of OPXS since the price was below a penny.

Do you think every OPXS shareholder comes to this board and starts posting as soon as they invest?

And as I said I am VERY happy with how OPXS has performed. I'm doing very well in it.

But if you look at a chart, you'll see that OPXS has been steadily improving without news. That's a good thing. When the news comes, it will go.

You're not going to get strong longs by pumping a stock. It makes me wonder if some people on this board aren't just profit takers who will bail at the first price jump. Just look at last Friday. We tested .02 cents. And people were all saying they were strong longs before that happened.

If you believe it's a strong stock, then you must believe you don't have to sell it?

Don't get your feathers ruffled. Patterns are what they are and this board could use a little temperance. I would much rather my share price rise on news than people trying to pump the price up too fast. This has been a nice solid gainer over the last couple months. I'd like to see it continue and let real news make us the big gains. Those will hold. Pumping will not and often ruins a good stock.

I see us testing lows within a tenth of a cent of the 20 day moving average each of the last five Fridays. Today that will be about .028.

Maybe the pattern will change today.

I agree. But I do find it funny that this short is pretty inept. First of all, this board is a little more savvy than to fall for those Yahoo message board type scare tactics. Second, he's apparently not done any DD at all or he'd see the underlying support and accumulation of this stock.

Anyone shorting this is pretty naive. Still way undervalued. Still a lot of upwards pressure. These little dips are VERY small, and most end up disappearing by day's end.

Great support. Shorts will lose this one.

We have a Morning Star formation. VERY close to one anyway - close enough to call it.

The tide has turned and the bulls are winning the battle. Up, up, UP from here.

Nice hammer today. Starts back up tomorrow. The weak are nearly gone.

I think the news is that this stock is very undervalued. I think the big jump got it noticed and now the word is getting out.

There are pharmas trading for 5-8x this price that have no revenues (CYTR comes to mind). It's crazy for this price to be so low, and it won't last for long.

All IMO, of course :)

I'm still leaning towards being over $1 by the end of the week, if not sooner. I still think tomorrow will be huge.