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Wednesday, 04/09/2014 10:35:59 PM

Wednesday, April 09, 2014 10:35:59 PM

Post# of 21822
Let's talk facts. One of the best indications of a well-run company is the asset to liability ratio. Most value investors won't invest if it's lower than 2:1. A low ratio doesn't necessarily show bad management, but a high ratio definitely shows good management. OPXS ratio was 3:1 as of the last report.

Very rare for a stock this price.

Another good sign of a well-run company is the ability to adapt. From the last quarterly report:

"The potential ramifications of the circumstances surrounding the 2012 Congressional budget sequestration have resulted in yet more uncertainty and potential cuts in spending by the U.S. military, and we have had to explore other avenues of revenue. We continue to explore other opportunities for manufacturing outside of our traditional product lines for products which could be manufactured using our existing lines in order to fully utilize our existing capacity."

Then we have this from yesterday's press release:

""This is an important milestone for Optex because it marks the first direct sale into South America without going through a large prime contractor; this direct transaction allows Optex to serve our customers in South America directly and to help influence their future procurements."

Some people said this was meaningless, but when you take it with the statements in the 10-Q, you can understand the context. They were probably popping corks at the time.

No numbers were given, but it was likely because it was not a financial press release. It was a business model press release. Management is showing they are doing what they said they were going to do. They're not announcing a contract, they're announcing the beginning of a new strategy that is starting to come to fruition.

It's also likely they did not say who they were selling to because it is a military contract. If they were just wanting to hide small numbers, if they were only pumping, they would have at least given some names. There is a reason both numbers and names were left out of that news release.

And that leads me to the final fact about Optex management. They DO NOT pump. They never have. Funny that they are being accused of that when most investors complain that they don't have enough PR (and here's a revelation for you: any quality company does not start its morning meetings with, "Okay, what can we do today to get this stock price up?").

They are very up front with investors - as we discussed earlier on this board concerning the dire warnings of the risk factors. Companies who pump don't go that deep into the risks. Investors may be pumping, but Optex is not. That's what matters.

If you're here to judge whether you should put money into OPXS, do this:

Go find another penny stock that has never had dilution or a reverse split. Go find another penny stock that has a 3:1 asset to liability ratio. Go find another penny stock with such high insider ownership. Go find another penny stock that actually makes something real and important with an established business plan. Go find another penny stock that is trading below book price.

You might find several that passes one or even a few of those tests, but OPXS passes all of them. Will OPXS stock price make you rich? Who knows. It might, it might not. But if you are into penny stocks, I bet you are invested in other stocks that don't show nearly the promise.


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