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years ago, i valued SA articles. I suppose there are still few who are authentic and genuine, but SA has become pretty useless at this point. bear articles rarely impact share price (unless illiquid microcap). i doubt it has had much impact on today's drop. Talking about the drop end of day, just seem like capitulation selling when the market is up huge while RVNC refused to participate most of the day.
let's see how Monday goes. If we drop further to hit new lows, then I might drink some whiskey
when did this come out? yesterday? then why late day crash? i don't get it. article itself is amateurish and would be surprised that it would have this much impact at this price.
my wife loves it. 4-5mo for her and she is repeat customer now. and her few Korean friends. i did it once last year. i have been using botox on and off for 10 years.. not an expert, just follow wife's actions. i like it but again, i am no expert. wife seems to think it's better and lasts a 'bit' longer. price isn't that important for her as much as me. korean friends care a lot more about duration than few bucks +/-
on a positive note, they continue to reiterate 280M sales for 2024. despite weak Q1. and signs of other competitors having slower uptake in Q2.. so how do we make of this quiet confidence?
so company needs to hit 66M or better.. that's how earnings game work... not 64M not 62M.. 66M...
i see finance yahoo has us at 66M+ for Q2 revenue forecast. is this not right? where could i go for 'official' analyst forecast ?
don't disagree but first, let's hit $66M+ Q2 revenue. we get another miss vs forecast, i don't know where we would be.. sub $2 maybe? really don't want to think about that..
if RVNC hits $60M for Q2 (forecast is for 66M+ which is 13.8% yoy increase only), shares will get hammered again. Q1 is weakest Q in revenue annually, so using Q1 revenue of 51M and to grow 15% QoQ is not quite the estimate I would use. 15% yoy Q2 increase from 2023 would be more suitable target. whether they hit it I don't know but that's how I see it
Saw this below on twitter:
"The $100m raise in Q1 is included in the cash of $277m as of March 31, 2024. It is not additional.
At the current loss rate of ~$50m/Q, $RVNC need to make such a $100m raise every other quarter until they are "EBITDA positive in 2025" or even longer to pay off their debt.
Anyone confirm $277M includes the $100 raise? also what could RVNC do to get some debt relief. seems that's #1 reason of concern, amongst many others
brutal. just amazed endless selling at this level.
if you are right, then you would have never bought a single share of RVNC past year - $30s to $2.6... if your data was that accurate. so either data isn't or you have not bought any shares because of such insight.
in 99% of cases w/ shorts, they do NOT have more info than we have. usually even less info. it's more technical analysis/charts, or sentiments, or competitive threats, etc. every stock has shorts. every buyout stocks had shorts who were nuked b/c they "didn't" have any more/better info. it isn't a major issue here. farthest from being a top 10 issue
anyone know when China may approve Daxi through our partner? been 11 months now. seems awful long. anyone know average time for Chinese authority to approve ? i thought maybe average of 12 mo or 1 yr?
there are no "data" to track as investor? other than anecdotal, word of mouth, one or few direct contacts w/ injectors, instagram potss, etc. so what data are you talking about other than these?
3$ lasted one day. but still think we have seen bottom at $2.6. anecdotal signs on social media/IG and my wife who takes daxi seem to be progressing. no idea if they can beat sales forecasts but $2.8 stock price doesn't do justice for the product.
we have 2 investor conference in June. any longer term investors know how Foley is w/ these conferences? usually non event or does he tend to deliver some positives in these conf?
sorry. my bad. $2.6s.. geez.. 3.6 be 40% higher i guess. i take that of course..
is it possible to hold here in 3.6s.. 3-4 days now... amazing how low bar my wishes have become.. hold the $3.6 line seems like i am routing for some clinical microcap bio.
you don't need Dew to tell you Foley is no A+ CEO. stock price tells you that, along with prior decisions to jack up Dax pricing. but honestly it's not just CEO. there is a BOD. all public co's do. they have power to change C levels. they chose not to. the collective mind of BOD has chosen to stick w/ Foley. But as it is w/ biz, the support won't last forever for any one in that position. i surmise that BOD and all of us are giving a bit more time for turnaround. if not, Foley won't be around
this is a dumb take. companies change CEOs all the time - even Apple (Jobs got fired and came back of course). asking for ceo change doesn't mean investors just sell the stock. more often than not, new leadership and visions are needed (not abandoning the company altogether). I fully agree Foley should have been fired. zero reason to keep him no matter what some of the posters here including Dewey has said. the mistakes he has made are more than worthy of being fired.
now, since BOD has not fired Foley, I don't go around posting something that isn't going to happen. I now need to see the implementation of turnaround that is prob. a multi-quarter development. I am giving 2 more quarters to see it.
russel rebalance initial notification today? after hours? anyone know?
yahoo estimates for 2024 is $276M (slightly lower than co's 280M). where do you see $250M forecast? don't think that's the case.
unlikely. xbi and many small bio's crushed last few days. rvnc no different AND has horrendous technical / chart which makes it worse.
yea.. prob. tutes (some) are forced to sell here.. sub $3 close two days in a row.
can't get any worse than another $2.6 more down.... so that's that
50k shares total now. avg around 2.95$. wish i had waited longer to buy first few tranches. but have no idea if we are near bottom. 2 mo. to go for ER which may or may not be good. and not expecting any news to lift our shares. but to me, sub $3 has high r/r scenario
added 10k $2.76
agree. never seen a stock like this in one year. $30s to $2.92. insane amount of selling. i do think daytraders exacerbates it. short interest is not low but far from being toxic. only way this gets going is some + news and gaps up a dollar and runs w/ shorts covering fueling it more.. and then ER beat/raise. that is only way
stock price aside, execs have to retain good sales people. imagine if "these" performers left merely b/c of stock price is in the gutter. and mgmt have to join them on the expensive trip. it is what it is. their total expenses are so hefty, this is hardly the main problem w/ cost side. we need 1) hit revenue targets and beat them consistently (i.e. multiple Qs). 2) continue to manage costs and over time, reduce them dramatically. do both next few quarters, we will be in teens.
yes. and there is nothing wrong w/ it. my company does similar for top sales people. you need them and they need to be rewarded, motivated. that is hardly the problem here.
i would like to see more insider buys at this level. c-levels. it's barely $3. unless SEC reg. prevents them from buying at the moment
1) investors and market concern for debt convertibles.
2) cannot do any more offerings.
3) cannot miss revenue estimates
4) accelerate lowering expenses further. still way too heavy on expenses for sub $500M company
no one believes Foley. not analysts. not investors. surely not shorts. this is not a one time event to turnaround, but he needs to earn trust. communicate progress more often. lessen debt/financing concerns we all have
40k shares @ 3.13 average. been swing trading mostly for few months (slight loss) but now holding for 2-3 QTRs or more. just want to give summer and 2 ERs (next two), before adding or exiting at loss.. love the product, hate the mgmt. EOLS is certainly not more valuable than RVNC (fact). at this rate, at some pt, hostile takeover will occur. bankruptcy fears on twitter unjustified.
Q1 is never a good qtr for most bioland stocks. don't expect that to be diff here. and ceo has said so in prior comments. i think key is keeping the same 2024 overall guidance even w/ soft q1 #s (which i expect). and maybe, just maybe in Q2 or Q3 ER, they can actually beat the guidance and/or raise 2024 overall #s. that would be something. i don't think Q1 # by itself means much as long as overall 2024 # is in tact or even higher than $280 guidance.. (of course if lower guidance, then sure, we will lose even the $3 handle maybe), but i am here for 4-6 qtrs as this will take a lot of time to play out
w/ RVNC, not a stock you want to be watching tick by tick every day. that will make LT holders suicidal. i have been in RVNC for years (did exit a couple of times too), and recently entered, and I knew this would be a very long turnaround, if at all. i think we get Q1 ER out of the way (nothing special prob.) and need to see Q2 and Q3 to be the pivot point to turn this around. usually before that happens, share price would have bottomed well beforehand. i think 3.7 today would turn out to be the bottom.
why do you think they raised. they didn't need to...
i think we will know the reason in a day or two when this offering is closed. we need to find out who got into this offering before we judge.
- did ceo/insiders buy into offering as we had hoped for once blackout period was over. i certainly expected ceo to buy significant # of shares post ER. maybe this was one way.
- maybe one or more tutes wanted to get in w/ discount
- maybe the offering price is healthier level than just $6. maybe 6.5. maybe $7. we will know soon
i m not sure if this offering is all gloom and doom. i suspect CEO and/or other execs would get into this offering at lower price. and/or other funds. we will see soon. they didn't need to do this for sure, so why? maybe some individuals/execs/funds want to get in at this level. that's more likely
100M offering. did they really need to raise here? wonder why now at barely $7? do tutes or insiders want to get in at cheaper prices?
i would hope CEO buys some shares here post ER. i think 3 days post ER, execs can buy some shares. if he doesn't at sub $7, i be shocked. i recall he bought some in the teens a while back before run up to $30. i will be looking for this next week.
nice dip pre market for s1 filing. amazed still people react to those.