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Ruud, I see you have been pretty active today. I share your enthusiasm. Been listening to a few CEO’s from my high tech region and I think we may finally see our dreams come to fruition. Have a nice week end.
Somebody needs to buy these shares. If it’s not you, who do you think will buy ?
I couldn’t have said it any better.
Consolidation in Optical Network industry: Nokia acquisition of Infinera.
https://nokia.ly/45Qwgwc #nokia
May I remind you in this respect of the existing Nokia and Polariton relationship ( Lightwave) as well.
For long distance and telecom. No comparison on power consumption, form factor, simplicity of design, overall cost efficiency with EOP modulators. You are exactly highlighting the issue the current transceiver industry faces for which LWLG offers a solution for now and future.
Correct Proto.
Just remember 5 years ago NVDIA March 2019 : $ 3.15, Patience pays.
TAKEAWAYS
Optical networks will need artificial intelligence and machine learning to scale more efficiently and affordably to handle the increased traffic and connected devices. Conversely, AI systems will also need faster pluggables than before to acquire data and make decisions more quickly. Pluggables that fit this new AI era must be fast, smart, and adapt to multiple use cases and conditions. They will need to scale up to speeds beyond 400G and relay monitoring data back to the AI management layer in the central office. The AI management layer can then program transceiver interfaces from this telemetry data to change parameters and optimize the network.
https://effectphotonics.com/insights/transceivers-in-the-age-of-ai/
They are working towards 30 June. The only way shorts can get cover is to make sure they get the index funds to recalibrate their portfolios and sell shares to them. I guess this could supply them with a couple of million shares at low prices , which they urgently need to lower their overall exposure before any news from Lightwave hits the market . It looks like somebody here on Ihub is trying to give a helping hand. I hope that nobody holding shares will help them in this endeavor by selling into their ‘ game’. Best thing would be if Lightwave could drop a ‘ bomb’ before 30 June.
Just for information. Kind of explains why a company like NVIDIA needs to move fast into increased bandwidth, speed and low power using light based photons in chip form, PIC’s. Chinese have figured it out as well.
Response back from Michael:
Hi ( name not disclosed)
Thank you for reaching out. As you can guess, I am not responding to investor notes in the past couple of weeks, and totally focusing on commercially our technology. Having said that, I do appreciate your support over the years, and I respect your technical and business acumen. We at LWLG are very aware of the situation that you observe.
I can’t and will not view blogs as per counsel’s guidance, however, I do know you are a strong supporter of our technology platform, and I thank you very much for that.
Michael
A few weeks ago they let it be known, it would be $ 2.
I want you to know this to enable your own acquisition strategy. Anybody selling now is an idiot or a short. Just ask yourself why this aggressive attack now? Have a look at the wash trading algorithms. This is what it is. These guys take the oxygen out of the system for financial gain.
It will be short lived because I am sure Lightwave will surprise us with some spectacular news, the one and only reason the shorts attack us now. The news is starting to leak through the walls.
Just to put the task for Lightwave shorts in perspective and to underline their desperate and very risky position.
LWLG short position : 21 mio, 17% of float, 40 days to cover.
NVIDIA short position: 27 mio, 1.18% of float, 1,5 day to cover.
Lightwave has a very solid retailbase.
Take out the European contingent of retail shareholders around 40% ( who can’t and or are not willing to short) and you understand the uphill battle Lightwave shorts face.
Shorts are in dire straits. They are aggressively attacking the share price but haven’t really been able to reduce their overall position with much over the last two years. As of yesterday 20.6 mio shorts. The good news for the shorts is that despite their selling their overall short position hasn’t increased due to the absorption of new issued shares and retail selling. The institutional position has increased over the last two years. The shorts have 40 days trading to cover their position. People, please don’t be fooled. This is a game which will end with a big bang .
Fully agree. You can lift your smart ass reputation once more. Chapeau.
Just by chance looking at Universal Display historic price/ earnings ratios for a friend doing a financial net present value calculation for Lightwave Logic,
Today in what I would call OLED’s consolidation phase the P/E is around 38,
In period 2010-2015 in an ascending market penetration phase P/E reached 180 and stayed around 100 for some time.
Always important to look at what could be. Companies progress towards their goals. It takes courage, vision and hard work, Inescapably. Looking at today’s shareprice for guidance doesn’t require much vision, is easy and risk averse,
I keep my shares. I am now an ‘experienced’ shareholder and I know much more about mining and this Elk Creek project than in the past when I made an ‘ uninformed’ decision and bought around the same price levels as today. The share price already reached around 13-16 dollars ( post reverse split) in the past based on the information available at the time. The potential is even higher, because Niocorp is currently heavily undervalued especially since project risks have been grealy reduced since my first buys around 2012-2014 .
This is a good level to buy, especially with EXIM and Stellantis ready to jump in the next year. I think it would be stupid to sell at these levels, despite my own disappointment in the course of things.
Thank you. Hopefully this goes down well in our little shareholder communities. I assume a final loan approval will be contingent of the availability of the drilling results.
Jim:
Yes, although it is certainly possible that a definitive agreement with appropriate contingencies can be reached with EXIM prior to publication of an updated Feasibility Study Technical Report.
From Jim:
The additional drilling to convert a portion of our Probable Reserves to Proven Reserves is being requested by EXIM. Often, commercial banks will not require this, as Proven and Probable reserves are considered reserves against which debt financing can be done. EXIM is leaning to the conservative side here, but that is understandable given their limited history in financing large-scale mining projects and given that our Project is one of, if not the largest single prospective loan currently in EXIM’s new Make More in America initiative.
The additional drilling would probably take 12 weeks in the field, with the follow-on resource and reserve update analysis to be completed by independent consultants. Other elements of the FS update, such as updated engineering for our improved process flow sheet and the railveyor/electrified approach to the mine, can continue on a corollary path. And, EXIM loan due diligence processes will continue to advance during the pendency of this work.
Everything required for an updated FS should take about 9 months total to complete although, as Scott mentioned, there will be a large effort to accelerate that timeline as much as possible.
EXIM’s additional requirement on drilling was made in the spirit of putting them more solidly in the position of providing us with debt financing. We welcome that. We are working closely with EXIM staff and leadership, and with the excellent JPMorgan team, and the effort continues to move in the right direction.
There is also very strong and bipartisan political support for the Project in Congress and across the Executive Branch. While EXIM will craft a financing package based on the merits, economics, and determination of the Project's ability to repay the debt, this political support helps a great deal. Without it, projects such as this do not tend to be seriously considered for such large amounts of government support.
Jim Sims
They already sat with Lebby/ Zyskind, That’s more likely,
Arista passed Cisco in Ethernet switching with a marketshare of 28% over 27%. Why is did Arista take a leadership position In Ethernet?
Arista: ‘ Today, we have the #1 marketshare in DC switching globally. We have the #1 marketshare in 100G, and #1 marketshare in 400G. We are deployed by the largest Cloud companies and by over 10,000 Enterprises around the world!”
Now think twice. Does Cisco want to leapfrog Arista to 800G and beyond or will Arista secure its position in 800 G and beyond as well?
What about InfiniBand and NVIDIA moving to 800 and beyond ? Think so, makes business sense .
Scott was requested to answer the timing question to arrive at the full FS. Not what was needed for the EXIM process: process engineering and reserve update. That question was answered by Mark,
Your question is wrong although you want to hear, like me, if we need drilling for EXIM or not!
To Jim:
Thanks for yesterday’s update on Railveyor.
The question I have is ( and with me many others) does EXIM’s request for additional reserve information ( Mark: from probable to proven) require a drilling program or is a drilling program required for the final full and updated FS to which Scott spoke?
Thanks for your answer.
I listened with special attention to the webcast again.
Did EXIM ask for Railveyor? No.
Does EXIM need a new FS. No,
From your reaction I think you didn’t or did not want to understand the message. I remember the days when I had three years compensation locked up in company stock. If somebody would have asked me to buy more out of empathy to shareholders, I would have declined. Whatever, have a nice day.
I use an answer from BuyNStonks which explains exactly how I would look upon insider buying . It's a red herring, we don't know insider personal finances.
BuyNStonks Quote: I don't think insider buying is a reliable indicator for the strength\future prospects of a company. Insiders are being compensated via payroll and stock options. Why does anyone think they are going to plow more money into the company?
They are in the trenches, most stand to be handsomely rewarded if the stock pops. Most people would want to de-risk a situation which, in this case, would involve diversifying your portfolio. Most insiders may be over-exposed to LWLG with respect to the allocations within their portfolio. Continuing to be over-exposed likely signals their belief in the company but the general public doesn't have a window into their personal finances to confirm if they are already "betting the farm" on LWLG unquote.
Given the company indications of ongoing commercialisation and negotiations with Tier 1's it might be illegal to buy shares. I would say the fact that they don't buy may well be a great indication of ongoing activities.
Very smart to sell at 18 ( in hindsight). Wish you well with your approach. You could speak a bit more positive now that the company has given you such a financial windfall.
Video’s from Beursbox. Tom Lassing.
A guy with a decent following in the Netherlands created doubts about LWLG’s technology necessity and ability to conclude deals. No idea about the company, looks at charts. Basically saying my computer is fast enough, who needs more speed ? Better sell! Very bad advice.
Weak hands sell, creating a great buy opportunity for longs and shorts alike.
By the way we all here agree that Lightwaves external communications is an issue.
On a positive note, Jensen Huang is challenging the incumbent industry by accelerating the pace of product renewal from biannual to annual. For Huang to make Spectrum 800 ( Ethernet) and Quantum 800 ( InfiniBand) and next Rubin
( not defined yet) part of his Computex 2024 key note address is telling;
What I feel he hammered home most clearly is the cadence of innovation and the company’s relentless pursuit of maximizing the limit of technology including software, process, packaging, and partnerships to protect and expand its moat and market presence across InfiniBand and Ethernet The pressure to make more 800G transceivers this year is on! LWLG is ready to scale up its production.
Fully agree. I hope for an unexpected bang, like with Nasdaq and AMF . Next a real big tier 1.
Good on you Spartex, It’s a gift from the shorts to you, They keep on giving this opportunity and at the same time helping to finance the company by absorbing new shares. Once a big deal arrives , soon I hope, they stand to be penalized for their generosity. That’s too bad.
Is NVIDIA’s 90% of Infiniband enough to qualify for ubiquity to start off with?
In Taiwan today Nvidia surprisingly quickly announces the next generation of chips specially suited for generative AI. NVDIA’s pace of renewal is boosted from biennial to annual. Isn’t that the 50% reduction Lebby was talking about in the ASM presentation when talking about lead times in the data center sector? Can it’s suppliers keep up with this ambitious pace of renewal? Should not every supplier be working on the next generation already to comply? Is that why TSMC is being pressured by NVDIA? Good for LWLG to think ahead and have a standby foundry available, if necessary.
You and your four British colleagues sold all your shares. I assume you belong to those shareholders that buy high and sell low and than start blaming others to justify your decision. Lightwave announced a partnership with AMF and just reaffirmed their plans for 2024 which includes one Tier 1 at least. I think you sold a bit premature.
Smoke and mirrors
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The communication wasn’t clear. I fully agree. It’s not my task to defend Lightwave , but I understood from the presentation roadmap on page 13/14 200G modulators in 2024. The partnership announcement with AMF wasn’t seen by shareholders as a ( commercial) partnership, which by the way it is, happened now in May 2024. The fact that they needed a correction to clarify the commercialization was clearly a mistake.
I see that after hours the share price dropped. Now, which idiot would sell after hours for a lower price than during the day? This is pure manipulation. Somebody is very afraid the share price may go in a different direction then wanted, which is up. So they try to exert maximum fear. As I said a few days ago, this is an inflection point. “ What comes may well be a quasi monopoly in progress. Like Lightwave and it’s CEO it would seem people here should make a strategic choice: go with the winner or work yourself frantically into a deeper hole.”
Today I would add : or join the losers, the shorts. Commercialization in business is a risk reduction process in collaboration with your partners. Final commercialization means : risk avoidance. Easy choice for me. For shorts it’s the opposite. They run the highest risk now.
NVDIA’s roadmap mentions Quantum X 800 and a Spectrum X 800 Switches. Quantum for Infiniband and Spectrum for Ethernet.
The Spectrum Ethernet switch delivers the fastest single application circuit in the industry: 51,2Tb per second but has only 100 G electrical lanes .
It would only be compatible with 8x 100 G transceivers.
The 800X Quantum switch of 115.2 Tbps announced in March 2024 will have 200 G electrical lanes and would be able to connected to 4x 200 G transceivers ( 800 G) or eventually 8x 200G ( 1600G). I know only one company being able to deliver such 200G per lane option. NVIDIA would leapfrog the competition and be the first to offer a full 800G/1600 G all encompassing solution from GPU into the datacenter and combine its monopolistic world class GPU’s with far the best AI datacenter solution in the world, leaving the rest scratching their heads.No doubt a similar Spectrum solution will be planned for the 2025 and I assume the rest of the ‘ Ethernet industry cooperation’ which is still defining it ‘ standard’ will need to follow soon after.
Just today I read: https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/05/39060364/nvidia-accelerates-ai-chip-production-with-new-packaging-tech-to-meet-soaring-demand?utm_campaign=partner_feed&utm_source=yahooFinance&utm_medium=partner_feed&utm_content=site&nid=39136837
Again mention of 200 G….,Very interesting imho.
Let me start to say that the commercialisation process is a management process which is characterized by risk reducing over time. In the preliminary stages risk is high in the last and final stage business risk is low
Thanks Walter, I honestly think the majority here has no idea what a commercialisation process is: definition, phases , milestones, sign offs . The customer involvement starts early on in the process. Most here think commercialisation is selling and distribution and being paid. That’s the last part of a long commercialisation process, the finalisation of the process. Fortunately we are in that phase. Thanks for explaining. Not understanding the product development and customer engagement process is causing people to jump to wrong conclusions on timing and it plays right into the narrative of the shorts. Unfortunately.
What comes may well be a quasi monopoly in progress. Like Lightwave and it’s CEO it would seem people here should make a strategic choice: go with the winner or work yourself frantically into a deeper hole.