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Trevali (TV.to/TREVF) +0,245 to C$.67 (+59,04 %)
Say no more...
Glencore cuts annual zinc production by 500 000 tonnes
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/08/glencore-cuts-zinc-ouput-by-500000-tonnes-shutters-aussie-mines.html
MMG concludes mining@Century
http://www.mmg.com/en/Investors-and-Media/News/2015/10/01/Mining-completed-at-MMG-Century-mine.aspx
Trevali has taken a huge hit here. In my world it should rebound a bit, but who knows. Buying some more here anyways.
dyodd&imho
/g
I have read them all and still don't know what's going on. The real test will come when C&L closes down.
imho
/g
Andy H seems like a guy with a half empty glass...
There's been a deficit during the last couple of years since there's been a closure of zinc-mines (Brunswick&Perseverance among others). Two big mines (Century&Lishen) are gonna close this fall removing another ~600 000 tonnes from the market. There are no “known” mines who can fill that gap in the short/mid term.
The black box is China where some guys think they’re gonna respond fast if/when the zinc price goes up, and some others who don’t. There’s also talk about “shadow” inventories being hold by metal traders, banks et al.
Maybe, maybe not, time will tell.
When it comes to miners, Trevali is probably the best positioned play out there since they already are a producer with a growth profile going forward.
Among explorers you have for example IronBark Zinc, Heron Resources, Rathdowney Resources, InZinc Mining, Canadian Zinc, Tinka Resources and Nevada Zinc.
But they are all a function of a rising zinc price.
imho&dyodd
If you know what Otto thinks about CEO.ca, kinda fun too...=)
They also raised ~5 mil@1.15.
The impression I get is that they really want to scale if/when the zinc price starts to move.
/g
I think/hope you are right. How long will it take to put Houndé in production? 2 years? Providing that they don't spend too much on other stuff (and the gold price cooperates), they're gonna make some serious money during that time. They could use that to pay down/refinance their existing dept and come up with the money they need.
The numbers look pretty good...
/g
Houndé looks pretty awesome.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/endeavour-mining-updates-hound-project-190200930.html
Dilute and put it into production?
/g
Hey dr,
Stupid one here but are you saying that:
1) You should sell Argonaut ?
2) Even though Argonaut has better assets than Timmins?
Best,
g
That's the million dollar question, lower gas prices = lower ethanol prices OR lower gas prices = more gas demand = more ethanol demand = possible ethanol supply squeeze = higher ethanol prices...?
;)
/g
What about a worse than expected report and a better than expected cc? ;)
Best,
/g
Hi Dutch (are you dutch?) ,
I think it's a capital expenditure (and doesn't affect earnings).
Best,
/g
Right now, to me, the share price for Pacific Ethanol is a function of the ethanol price (which is dependent on both the ethanol stocks and the oil price). The corn price will probably stay low for some time, the natural gas price as well.
The coming quarter is gonna be fine, Rule/Bio/Researcher (and others) are doing a great job on that part (thanks guys, you're awesome), but if the ethanol price goes down too much I'm afraid it won't help since it's gonna kill the coming quarters.
IF however the ethanol price stays where it is/goes up some (my bet), I believe/hope we're gonna be in for some fun. Listen to the conference call AND listen to Green Plains' conference call as well (October 29) to see if you can pick up any "hints" of what they think about the rest of the fall/winter.
I'm holding into the report BUT I'm gonna be fast on the sell button if I see/hear something I don't like.
My five cents.
Best,
/g
September ethanol production at a six month low
http://www.platts.com/latest-news/agriculture/houston/september-us-ethanol-production-tumbles-to-a-21441696
Very good, now we "only" need a cooperating ethanol price for the future quarters...
great post researcher59 (nt)
"If they don't sell stock to their buddies at .24 just before the reverse split, we may be ok."
Focus Ventures, FCV.v (Phosphate) update
This is an update from my previous post:
The first drill program is done and so far so good. The results were in pretty much in line with what everyone expected (maybe slightly lower grades but still OK) and Focus are still targeting a maiden resource estimate of 100-150Mt at 12-17% P2O5. It's expected in August or September.
There's been a lot of warrants exercised (~19.5M) which probably () has dampened the share price, but also have brought in over $3M to the coffers.
Today (August 12) another 5.7M shares@0.20 will hit the market. Add to that ~3M warrants@0.265 and we will likely see more pressure on the share price for a while but this could also be a good time to load up some shares. This is (what I can see) the last batch of cheap shares/warrants for some time.
More info on their website:
http://www.focusventuresltd.com
dyod&imho
Best,
/g
~$8M PP@$0.24
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/140725/gspe8-k.html
A couple of insiders taking some of it though.
Hey Bob,
Joined you here, high risk, but could be fun IF things goes as planned.
Thanks for posting about this one.
Best,
/g
US ethanol margin hits six-week high
http://www.platts.com/latest-news/agriculture/houston/us-ethanol-margin-hits-six-week-high-on-tumbling-21935638
Schaefer on ethanol, still long PEIX (and GPRE)
http://oilandgas-investments.com/2014/natural-gas/ethanol-vs-natgas-the-summer-2014-duel/
Pretty hefty volume too, yesterday and today
Green Plains price target raised to $45
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/green-plains-price-target-raised-111107492.html
Yes, I thought it could be interesting for those who haven't read it. And it is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future...
/g
Schaefer’s PEIX report, part 2 (for those who haven’t seen it)
http://oilandgas-investments.com/2014/investing/a-full-ogib-stock-report-part-ii/
You could argue that the share price could be around $20 and still too low. I'm surprised it hasn't moved higher. With Madera up and running they should have close to the same numbers as REX, yet REX has a market cap of ~$640M and PEIX ~$315M. Yes, REX has a clean history and more money in the coffers, but still, the difference is too big imho.
If you believe in ethanol, PEIX should be the best bet at the moment.
/g
Schaefer’s PEIX report for those who haven’t seen it
http://oilandgas-investments.com/2014/investing/a-full-ogib-stock-report/
PEIX prod margin april-june.
http://wsw.com/webcast/ghs5/peix/3__Slide10.JPG
Focus Ventures, FCV.v: Phosphate play
They have an interesting phosphate project - Bayovar 12 (70% option) - in Peru. Phosphate is used in most fertilizers together potash and nitrogen, but it's NOT the same as potash. Both phosphate and potash are affected by the demand for fertilizers but the supply side is totally different.
Ticker: FCV.v
SO: ~60m
Options/warrants: ~29m: Fair warning here, read below
FD: ~89m
SP: $0.31
MCAP: ~$18.6m
MCAP FD: ~$27.6m
They've just finished a 20-hole drill program and the results are expected any day now.
The good
- Open pit, very shallow resource, between 20-40 meters
- Very consistent geology through the deposit, old seabed
- Located in the desert, permits shouldn't be a problem
- Very easy extraction. No explosives, no crushing, no chemicals. Just shovel and use gravity separation combined with washing (salt water)
- Excellent infrastructure with an existing harbor 40 km away
- One existing mine - Bayovar (Vale) - and one deposit - Fosfatos Del Pacifico (Hochschild) - both around 15 km away, but in the "same" desert/seabed.
- Mosaic & Mitsui bought into Bayovar in 2010 for $4.60/t.
- Mitsubishi bought into Fosfatos Del Pacifico in 2011 for $1.10-$1.20/t.
- Focus is targeting 100-150MT in the first round.
The bad
- No drill results yet, it could be a disappointment (grade or size or something else)
- Volume sucks so far
- Huge warrant overhang:
* On July 31, 2014 a total of 6.86M warrants with a strike price of 20c expire
* Another 12.67M warrants@20 cents are subject to an exercise acceleration clause that may take effect anytime depending on trading price levels.
- Low on cash, the warrants are gonna bring in some but they're gonna have to dilute more
More on their site: http://www.focusventuresltd.com/
Picked this one up from Otto at IKN.
/g
Hey value,
Really appreciate your work. I'm a little bit puzzled though. Didn't expect that reaction yesterday and that scared me out I’m afraid. If that kind of result can’t lift a stock, what can?
So even though I agree with most of what you’re posting, I’m out for now, kinda watching the market to see where it goes from here.
I wish you the best, you deserve it.
/g
REX reporting Q4 tomorrow
Another ethanol play with ~255M gallons of ethanol/year. Q3 $1.2/share. Solid balance sheet. Fiscal year ends in January so this quarter should (hopefully) be better.
/g
Yes, I really didn't want to stir things up here, but looking at the past quarters the debt burden seems pretty heavy with interest and amortization expense of 4-5 millions every quarter?
Even though they cash flow that and more right now, it's hard to know for how long?
But from what I understand they're gonna do some refinancing of the debt?
Their balance sheet looks kinda strained?
Ok, thx. (nt)
Does anyone own any REX? Q4-2013 coming up soon.