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Don't remember ever seeing something like my suggestion -
but, I think one thing Wave needs is a School House Rock-esque informational video that dumbs down encryption and engages the viewer, rather than technical mumbo jumbo.
It would be geared towards the @home consumer, not business (I'm thinking along the lines of openID and FDE storage). Although it certainly could impact a business IT buyer.
Short, fun internet videos demonstrating how a service works and "how cool" it is are persistently used by larger vendors to supports software, browsers and hardware.
Everyone should vote on that simple one question survey. Help the cause!
Nice pre-market action.
I understand that the mere thought of Google involvement is enough to make us all overly optimistic right now, but consider this.
How many instances in computing can you think of where Google has used another vendors service? I can't think of too many.
They've got OS, browsers, phones, doc/data suites, image browsers/editors, video service, etc. The majority of their product line is free. Do no evil, they say.
They've got many of the worlds best computer engineers working for them.
I'm inclined to believe that if Google were to use TPMs, they'd engineer their own management software and provide it to customers for free, just like everything else they do.
And as for the speculation to the SP, for more than a decade we have always tried to come up with the conspiracy theory as to why it's up - and always been disappointed. It's fun to speculate, but how many times can we go down this road? Just wait for real news to react to, rather than fancy what might be happening, and inevitably isn't.
And also, maybe it was AWK who said it, I don't recall. But I agree that the general computing world / state of TPMs and computer security / awareness of encryption is more likely the reason for increasing volume and SP.
Oddly enough, Dell isn't listed as one of their vendors. Yet everyone else in the world is. However, it's nice to see Seagate as one of the "most popular" vendors, next to HP, IBM, Intel, Lexmark, Microsoft, Xerox, Toshiba, Panasonic and NEC.
http://ec.synnex.com/vendors/index.html
WAHOO!!!!
WAVE managed to INCREASE their earnings in one of the worst recessions ever!
This explains yesterdays SP jump - a little insider buying without a doubt.
Old Kid and others
Where as I don't doubt that perhaps SRA did manipulate the price (it's highly possible), don't forget that the price began its jump towards .90 immediately after the government contract news came out, which I would also expect.
Now, as for the fall in the share price, theres been no other news about Wave and the entire market as a whole has sank to a 12 year low. Presently, the SP is actually at a better position than when the market crashed last year. Will it stay this way? I'm guessing not, and its entirely possible that it could go down even more, because I never leave anything out of the realm of possibilites with Wave. But a SP, particularly with Wave, does not make the company. I think its perfectly fine for a company who has yet to turn a profit to have a SP below a dollar - this MAKES sense. What didn't make sense was the price around 2000 ... but we've never been closer to a profit and we're dead center in the security craze right now.
For the amount of time that I lurked this board, then joined last year and began posting, I can firmly say many of us are guilty of becoming too overly positive about the SP and its occasional upward trends. It should become a rule of thumb that when there are small increases, instead of saying it's here and here come Vegas, we should wait until we actually get a profit and in the meantime say "eh, give it time, let's see some profit first" ...
declining share price
BEAR in mind (see what i did there) that the decline in sp has been consistent with the overall market tanking over the last 2 weeks. in fact, the whole market started slipping again back in january while wavx was surging into the .90s
i'm really hoping that SKS is going to come through with the B/E announcement at the next conference. if not B/E then i don't think its out of question to think we'd be within the range of 100,000 to b/e, which is substantial progress and would be within the increasing revenue trends ... but don't be surprised if we don't hit b/e and the reports are dissapointing in light of the tanking economy last quarter
on the other hand, many larger companies are posting billion and million dollar losses right now, and wave might only post a small loss, a b/e, or dare i even dream of a tiny profit
Speaking of the price ...
Let's not forget that on Jan 22, the DoD agency contract came out. The sp has been fluttering around .50 The sp jumped .10 cents that day, played in the 80s and 90s for a while, and has now dropped down to .70
I'm feeling comfortable with the sp lately. Dropping down to 70 the couple days is ok - we're in the middle of government 6 month testing, we have that old 2007 DoD memo calling for all computers to have TPMs, the possibility of getting in on some EHRs jobs, FDE gaining tremendous momentum, ETS being bundled all over, the tipping point is upon us ...
And another thing I thought of today was how great our exposure is right now since Dell is a major enterprise supplier and we're being bundled on all enterprise class PCs. What a great opportunity to have Wave land into the lap of an IT department!
Whereas the TCG has a say in what is the "standard for acceptable encryption" if you would ...
The CCHIT (Certification Commission for Healthcare Information Technology) has a say in accepted vendors for EHRs. http://www.cchit.org/about/index.asp
Vendor list: http://www.cchit.org/choose/ambulatory/08/ (there's also an inpatient EHR list, etc, etc)
Wave would presumably like to be on a list like this - HOWEVER ... reading over the site seems to make these products more about data entry and less about security. How scary ... if one of these vendors got a big gig and had little security to back it up ... EHRs is going to be a big time buzz word going forward.
google trends fun ... sort them by country, international, etc
rising popularity of FDE as a search term ... http://www.google.com/trends?q=FDE&ctab=0&geo=us&date=all&sort=0
popularity of trusted computing as a search term .. .http://www.google.com/trends?q=trusted+computing&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
EHR very very popular search term ... http://www.google.com/trends?q=EHR&ctab=644639073&geo=all&date=all
Electronic Health Records /Stimulus
Last year we had a bit of discussion about EHR's, including this case study with CBI Health http://www.wave.com/collateral/03-000216.1.03_CBIHealth.pdf .
The stimulus is providing 250 - 300 million towards supporting "regional or sub-national efforts towards health information exchange" ... http://stimuluswiki.com/w/index.php/TITLE_IV%E2%80%94HEALTH_INFORMATION_TECHNOLOGY ... also the package itself, health portions around page 194 of PDF http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/hr1_engrossed.pdf ...
The CBI study showed that ETS/SED is helpful in an office for making health records into EHR's and secure.
Perhaps nationally, ETS could be used in offices to locally secure files. But my question is - on a national IT infrastructure level, does Wave even have a role? Didn't I read a post the other day that affirmed that Wave is not a player in server encryption? I have to think servers and security will play the largest role in who wins that type of contract. Can someone shed some light on this?
ok - maybe this could be used on a national level to offer secure, remote access to servers? http://www.wave.com/products/eas.asp ...
Could Wave have some type of role on a national level with CAC, NAC's, TPMs, or any of their products? There is a lot of money to be spent soon ...
Other interesting notes:
- I keep hearing that it is Obama who wants these EHR's. I did not realize that this stems from a presidential mandate by Bush in 2004 calling for nationalized EHRs by 2014! Page 4 for the mandate... http://www.hhs.gov/healthit/resources/HITStrategicPlanSummary.pdf
- Towards the end of that same document, pages 15/16, it reads like this WAVX forum, referring to this EHR networking only becoming possible once "the tipping point" for the technology becomes too much to slow down.
- The EHRs goal is to allow individuals to have access to their own EHRs. If this were the case, in my limited knowledge, is the only current Wave technology that could make this happen be the "grand dream" of every persons computer having a TPM that could make a "handshake" to verify their identity?
Oddly enough, I had seen on MSN Money the other day (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/advisor/advisor.asp?Symbol=WAVX&styp=0) that there was an institutional ownership change alert on 2/6.
I couldn't figure out at the time who it was, and there was no 13G at the time.
Clearbridge held the largest institutional position in WAVX, and now they're down to 0. It looks like they held almost 3.5 million at one point, dropped all the way to only 800,000, and in their last dump made it to zero. http://moneycentral.msn.com/ownership?Symbol=wavx
And from Snacks survey, I think this board and its associates probably bought most of it!
I actually saw on the news this morning that Microsoft is planning on opening their own brick and mortar stores - I think this would give them a direct opportunity to sell those smart phones. Question is - if they went the enterprise route, would they bundle Bit Locker or go with some form of Wave encryption?
cos, ncit $31m airforce contract eom
I DO hope this is the case. These companies all seem to be cutting edge, "undervalued" companies in the marketplace - the type that SRA likes to focus on.
But in terms of must-attend, hot, trendy, popular tech conferences that tech geeks and CEO's make annual trips to - where does a SRA conference rank in the world? Is it really a tech conference that people pay attention to, or is it really a chance for these companies to get exposure to investors? Something tells me Wave pays an admission fee to these events to get access to SRA's clientele.
Please shed some light on this if you're in the know, thanks.
::sigh::
Ok, public disclosure: I tend to strongly disagree/get irritated with old kids posts. Part of me feels he's just stirring the pot, and I even question whether he owns shares. With that said, I do feel there is a need to have a counterpoint to our effervescent wave-ism talk to help us see some important issues.
I had never really cared much to think about SRA and the PP's. But before I made a wholly ignorant post without doing some research, I decided to do some on SRA. I looked at their market placements dating back to September 200, which they refer to as representative of their services.
http://www.sracap.com/transactions.html
So I researched the companies and I became quite dismayed. Only two of them are trading above a dollar (United American Health Care and Logicvision), while the rest are either significantly below 1.00, pink sheets, been bought out at market cap, or are no longer in business.
SRA's website states " Security Research Associates (SRA) is a boutique investment banking and capital markets firm assisting fast growing public companies, in the small cap arena, with their capital and strategic advisory needs. ... Our banking focus is on working with companies between 50 million and 2 billion in market capitalization. ... Our Capital markets group looks for ideas that are misunderstood or undervalued. Ideas which offer above average returns to our institutional clients – clients who have been doing business with us for many years and represent the kind of investors we feel will be supportive and committed to the companies they own in the long term."
So this left me thinking: what the heck kind of research is SRA doing that indicates to them that these many companies they've worked with are fast growing and bound to be successful?! By no means have these "representative placements" been homeruns in a market sense. UAHC trading at 1.75 today is nothing to write home about, not exactly a corporate el dorado.
And Wave also appears to be their biggest client, with the most frequent placements. Hey, I believe in Wave too, just like SRA, but I am smart enough to see a trend with all of the clients they represent. I hope they're at least getting a great deal with SRA due to this very friendly business partnership.
Old Kid also made me think he was just trying to raise some ruckus by indicating another placement was in place to happen because of the SRA conference. Surely there was nothing to this - just another PR opportunity for Wave, getting the word out there. But I looked it up and after last winters SRA conference, Wave had a 3.5 million placement. I'm not sure why Wave would be participating in SRA conferences if they didn't intend on using them for more placements.
With that said, I'm not against Wave doing more placements: if they have the opportunity to avoid debt by taking on new investors and diluting short term to reach B/E and long term profitability (which I obviously fully believe in!), then I think it's a no brainer. If you're not making enough money short term and the economy is as bad as it is, I think avoiding debt - which can quickly cripple and limit your finances and business expansion - is a must.
Ok, enough of that rant.
boom
let us know how good Wave's stuff is vs your wife's hammer - the true test!! :)
hnstabe
Don't be disappointed in your position. The number of shares does not make a Wavoid - it's the belief and faith in this company and its mission that unites everyone here on this board.
Lot's of factors go into giving people varying amounts of shares here: money to invest, no money to invest, fixed income, belief in the company, balancing a portfolio, addiction!!, wise investing, unwise investing.
Everyone wants to be a millionaire, but that's not THE goal with this stock. The goal, as with any stock, is to make some money and live more comfortably. I probably have the same amount of shares, if not less, than you. I need it be 15x more than than 6 dollars a share to make a million. If that happens, GREAT - but in the meantime, it's money I didn't have to begin with, in what I think is a smart investment with the resources that I have. If this was a millionaires club, we probably wouldn't be having all of our daily meetings at this Ihub club!!
So be happy with what you've got - I am, as well as the other companies that I've tried to balance out my investments with - and don't feel that you can't be a part of this discussion because you own fewer shares than the others - just imagine, if the company doesn't succeed, then you were all the wiser.
Wavoid4e (wavoid 4 ever)
obama medical records pledge
a fact check from yahoo on obamas medical records plans, part of the stimulus plan
"OBAMA: "They'll be jobs building the wind turbines and solar panels and fuel-efficient cars that will lower our dependence on foreign oil and modernizing our costly health care system that will save us billions of dollars and countless lives."
THE FACTS: The economic stimulus bill would allocate about $20 billion to help hospitals and doctors transition from paper charts to electronic health records for their patients. Research has shown that in some instances, electronic record keeping can eliminate inappropriate services and improve care, but it's not a sure thing by any means. "By itself, the adoption of more health IT is generally not sufficient to produce significant cost savings," the Congressional Budget Office reported last year. "
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090210/ap_on_go_pr_wh/fact_check_obama
Expecting a good day ...
Coming off the sp upwards trend that Snackman has been chronicling, and now with the no delisting notice, I'm expecting a nice little bump here,
unless ... the preferred's that just converted begin some profit taking.
Let's hope not. Would also like to see some sales related PR soon to get non wavoid investors in on it. Let's get to the million share day soon.
Comic re: encryption
just for yuks!
http://xkcd.com/538/
Won't we all be there? eom
IT Admin plotted to erase Fannie Mae records
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/01/29/fannie_mae_sabotage_averted/
The catch-22 to any secure system is the people who have rightful access and malicious intent.
Touché inky. All excellent points.
meet us in vegas? we already know that TPT!
I like that idea Maynard, we get a little too excited with bumps like these, even though we know what always happens ...
However, until Q4 earnings come out, and unless bonified revenue news comes out, I would not be one bit surprised if the sp falls closer to the .50s than hanging in the .70s, based on past practice.
thanks for explanation eom
regarding convertibles
Let's hypothetically say some of the preferred series investors are taking advantage of their convertible shares. Let's say 10 of them convert 10,000 shares each at .28 each today, proceeds going to Wave (yay!).
Wouldn't this have an impact on the sp? Either via share dilution or general market pricing etc. This is something I've never quite understood since they're getting the same type of common stock we have, but we'll never see the days low being at .28
Are they not getting the stock "on the open market" so the price does not impact the sp?
And as for profit taking, let them! The longs know the latest big news was almost the best we could hope for. I'll keep accumulating bit by bit as these Filene's Basement prices.
whoa! that was a huge drop in sp at opening! is that from an ill market order? i'm not worried, in as a long, but that's over 12 percent drop at opening. still believe that "it's coming!" are the bulls of the last week turning into bears? appreciate your expert explanations, thanks
Question about warrants, etc ...
With the Series K approaching its automatic conversion into over 4 million shares ...
"Each share of Series K Convertible Preferred Stock will be convertible into 10,000 shares of Wave Class A common stock upon the election of the holder at any time or automatically on the date on which the average closing price per share of Wave Class A common stock for the 15 consecutive trading day period then ended equals or exceeds $0.70. In the aggregate, the Series K Convertible Preferred Stock is convertible into 4,560,000 shares of Wave's Class A common stock."
plus another 1.14 million shares from the warrants (2500 shares at .28 each, 456 K series) ...
Could someone please explain how this will affect dilution and share price? Adding over 5 million shares potentially? And thats only the Series K ... J kicks in at normal trading over 1.00, and I haven't checked the others just yet. TIA
I would like it to move faster. Unilaterally. Now! :) + 20% isn't enough for me in one day.
To think that yesterday I got lazy and decided not to add anymore wavx to my stack! When I checked the ticker this morning I knew something was going on. Doh! Just picked up some more, what a fun day.
Weby - re: DOI
From page 15 of that slideshow
"OMB M-06-16, Protection of Sensitive Agency Information and OMB M-07-16, Safeguarding Against and Responding to the Breach of Personally Identifiable Information:
OMB requires agencies to encrypt all sensitive data on mobile computers/devices.
This applies to all devices and media that reside, or are taken outside of, government controlled facilities that contain any sensitive information.
Interior expects to complete the selection and implementation of an enterprise encryption solution by the end of fiscal year 2009."
US FY 2009 began 1 Oct 08, thru 30 Sept 09 - so if Wave were to reap the benefits of the "enterprise encryption solution", there could be a bit of time before the gov completes their selection. Boy, if Wave won that, I'd love to see the ticker that day.
PS - reading thru that Power Point reads like a Wave Press Release IMHO, LOL
I'm with you oclv...
Yeah, it's taken FOREVER for this thing to get going. I wasn't in it when it was in the 100's, and bless your souls for those who are still in today. But I see three consecutive quarters of earnings that we've never seen the likes of before. That's called a trend.
I see constant articles about major players using WAVE technology, at an ever increasing rate. Bundled with Acer and Dell - good company to be in.
I see states passing legislation requiring encryption.
I see a company that in a terrible economy, actually increased their revenues.
Let's not fool anyone, no one expected them to break even this quarter. But they just increased their seats substantially. Deferred revenue has increased. Any companies that have money left in their budgets may need to do some end of the year splurging soon - "use it or lose it", hopefully to WAVE's benefit.
I'll ride this thing to .00 before I sell off because I believe, perhaps foolishly, that success is around the corner. Maybe the corner is a block away, maybe it's a mile. But I got my poms poms and I'm not going anywhere.
w4e
oops - i was wrong
ETS is available for direct purchase through Wav's site. It's the trusted drive manager which is not available for direct purchase. i'm happy again.
awk: Hope to see more like that eom
Pretty impressed with the early volume.
I checked out the Wave website and I was dissapointed to see that you can't easily purchase the ETS through the website. You have to submit a purchase request. In this day and age of instant gratification, you'd think Wave would make it easy to buy through the website, no extra emails or phone calls. And if they're going to ride the 'wave' of consumers eventually upgrading or going to their site to purchase ETS, you'll get a lot more buys without customers having to deal with the hassle of submitting a request.
Donald ...
The stock holders have determined the value to be in the .30s, not Wave. For all these years the price has just dropped while Wave had zero earnings because the industry and consumers weren't ready for these types of security and authentication. They've now had two consecutive quarters with increasing revenues and we project and believe that this will be a third consecutive quarters with increased revenues. With that pattern, along with a slight decrease in funding over the last year, and following the security trends, and considering the big pushes from Intel, Acer and Dell with including TPM's and now bundling ETS ... you can see where I'm going here. I think for once, SKS may be close to accurate on his prediction for B/E.
If that's the case, and if this works out, if the market truly is warming up to TPM's, and if all the litle niches Wave has carved out start to trickle in money, then the sky is the limit. So at .30 cents, I'm not worried about a buy out - because they're finally making money and they might be seeing the light. If your company started making a few million every quarter, would you be thinking "time to sell when our value has never been so small!"
I'm looking at this as a screaming BUY BUY BUY and building up my stake. Of course, if I'm wrong, well, oops!
Just wondering ...
... and speculating ...
We've seen the last few rounds of PP's be at market rates (unlike the discounted Series A financing's), albeit with warrants to get the stock much cheaper should it ever jump (and down the line, more dilution when the warrants are executed - but hopefully that dilution will be small beans when the day comes!)
It comes at no small cost though to the investor (between 4 and 6 thousand dollar for each of these new series of stocks), but its still low risk, high reward for the wealthy investors that are buying them anyways.
So here's my question / speculation: are these investors buying with some information and confidence that good tings are to come, so pay for your profits up front because this is a good opportunity? The earlier financing's were sold at discount, and they're still finding investors willing to buy without a discount. If you were privy to the chance to buy a series J share, would you jump at the chance? I personally would if I had the money, but I'm wearing those rose glasses. Can anyone give me their take on this? Thanks.
just another bank breach
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/7701227.stm