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the financing is likely why it is dropping...can't funding at 90% average price buy many more shares if price is less and less and less? and are OTC stocks regulated sufficiently to prohibit shorting whether or not addressed by funding prospectus?
the real question is what is funding's target price and since drawn out over long timeframe when will bottom be realized?
Nolerman...for the uninitiated though familiar with options trading and have heard of straddles & strangles could you indulge us with more details on how you set up and captured the expected gains on DRRX and those expected on CHTP?
good luck hunting, send photos of the trophy
go bull....there's been some monster plays while you've been camping in these two....you playing any other sheff specials lately?
and what happened to the Bull I used to love? you know...the bold bottom feeder.
still working in that forsaken windowless cave?
suffering here on the north shore sucker
breaking 50ma with volume would be helpful...say 22mil+
sorry...meant double from .008
hope that margin is enough to offset the 2011 $4m operating loss.....not
1.3 billion shares outstanding with a preferred share dilution equivalent to greater than 2 billion shares compounded by SEC complaints seem to me big headwinds preventing any lasting stock price pop....trade the infrequent news pops and reenter 50% or more lower, then wait for next news pop ...never be disappointed ....my next buy below half a cent...nice gain for those doubling from .08 today....gl
.40 drop to $6 x 10k shares = $4k = almost 700 shares if that helps you decide
doubt if it will hold $6 if it heads down there....look at more likely support at 5.75 or 5.50
fun daytrading til binary
doable ?????????
give it up bull
bounced from around $3 to around $9 with Pfizer agreement...
can we get another triple from here or near here?
enjoy your commentary on both ymb and ihub
have an opinion on date of next catalyst?
marketing agreement/co-op...then approval?
manufacturer still at the ready even though negative news recently?
are u bits_since_1980 on ymb?
looks like modest accumulation going on last couple of days
how close do you suppose for any announcements on partnering or approval of Mast-Out?
i presume that is what SP appreciation is awaiting?
STS...any coincidence ARNA doubled from 1.78 to 3.47 within two weeks of coming off the REGSHO list in March after 8 days
http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/ARNA/short-sales
if my calcs ref REGSHO correct watch it go to $10...this week or next....then maybe pull way back as shorters try to take control before PDUFA....
Positive response to offering?
Early move off the REGSHO....and double-play per March bounce?
Shorts buried?
who cares why....rockin for now
days on REGSHO correlate to price pop?
anyone familiar with tendencies between the two because if so we might have short-term pop based on the little i've studied
ALXA AEZS PLX SOMX POZN AMRN ITMN TLON DSCO all volatile bios from which you can make some $$ if you don't lose it all first!
awesome summary
went to REGSHO to verify daily volume ....doesn't match with daily chart volume for example 1.2m short volume and 5.5m regular...why the discrepancy with the 11.83m charts are showing?
is there a better site for ascertaining daily changes in short positions?
concise explanation....now does that $5.50 offering of only 11m shares put in a short-term floor on stock price....i have seen stock prices come down 10% or more below an offering even in legitimate biotechs before recovering....what's your take today because tomorrow it may start trending
the posts here have mixed flavor....luv the SciGuy question and lovethatgreen response....those bring healthy discussions.
but....let's say i want to play this both as day trade and swing thru approval and are sweating every dime movement like we know at least one poster is doing....gotcha
what i wanna hear is.....
why the secondary offering....and not from the company who is probably legally constrained from stating more than the obvious released in their public announcement....but from seasoned investors like yourselves who may be suspicious...or not... as to why they did a relatively cheap offering at $5.50 now....instead of waiting for bigger bucks post approval. this smaller offering of just 11m shares does offer some consolation to longs but still....
what is guestimated post-approval stock value (max spike and settle prices)....considering the Esai % agreement, the possibility of CVOT if not REMS... maybe a quick bounce to $15 and back to $9 just like our retracement $7.80 to $5.44 or are we really in a blockbuster $20-$40+ DNDN or ITMN category?
holding long-term can be hazardous to a portfolio even when a company gains approval....so are we really hear to talk DD or is it we want to know how to gauge the market's immediate and long-term reaction to various contingencies such as short interest, possible delays, REMS or CVOT, buyout tempered by Esai's agreement, and share count potentially going astronomical....
warding off the P&Ds with challenging discussions on these important DD issues is fine but what i want, and i bet most others want, even more from this board is their trading experiences reference similar setups....for example is large short interest negated by high volume/high premium options that just expired priming stock for price surge....or just the opposite.... a slow rollover filling the gap down to the 3s?
keep it alive
was doubtful at first but came around in time, congrats to BULL and all the longs
concur kei...squeeze shorts force the raid tomorrow
thx gixxer....2.63, 2.12, 1.28 look like flash targets to me but can't tell exactly
gotta figure the shorts are getting nervous cause adcom vote mcuh less certain for them
if they get nervous enough as displayed in the odd options action earlier i sense bear raid more likely...not certain...but more likely
join them and can get reap awesome bounce profits
a start....will check level IIs and review support levels...gltya
yer BUCKS are mine....no forest to hide an overindulgent BULL
options weirdly discounted for optimistic results....bear raid coming BULL?
briefing documents released prior to the adcom in 2010 apparently revealed something unexpected that caused stock price to fall even prior to the adcom.....does anyone recall details about that and how it might relate to tomorrow?
Notes for ADCOM released May 8th....does anyone know whether the notes present enough info to determine or better speculate ADCOM outcome and, if so, wouldn't that make Friday and Monday perhaps the most important trading days for ARNA?
do you question existence of shorts:
shortsqueeze.com last report: short shares 42m, 180m outstanding = approx 25% shorts
shortanalytics.com reports: at least 40% short sales since April 18th
or the nexus between existing short positions and the eventuality of a bear raid?
the latter i admit is mere supposition without statistical proof... but if the data supports or even hints at approval don't you think the big short position holders know the probabilities of such through well-staffed research departments?
i see a well-choreographed bear raid if approval deemed likely by these big shorts. i see no need of a raid if they deem likelihood minimal or non-existent.
we'll know soon enough
for longs it is not whether adcom should recommend & FDA should approve... it is whether they will...
based on the enormous short positions placed i surmise big money believes no approval. so whether that derives from good dd or panel corruption does not matter....success usually follows the money but these plays are like lotto....there is an opportunity here to bet against the odds with presumably nice reward.
but what i was really referring to was the probability of a bear raid prior to adcom as mentioned in earlier post by the bull. i don't have statistical support but in the few years i have played these volatile approval plays my gut reminds me that bear raids seem to precede highly contested approvals more often than they preceded disapprovals...i welcome any statistical studies supporting or to the contrary.
DNDN, POZN, SOMX are a couple of those bear raids i remember.
if this logic withstands statistical analysis then longs should invite the bear raid....the question then becomes how to best position to benefit from both the raid and then the approval? the bull has an interesting strategy to accomplish just that.
just got to thinking that with the enormous outstanding short position...last i heard was 40m....what if those institutionals know or highly suspect a no recommendation from ADCOM...then would there be no need for a bear raid.........
bear raid seem to happen concurrent to an effort by short positions to cover cheaply and even ride the wave of approval....not the opposite.
so given the controversy with locaserin being weighted against approval so far maybe, just maybe, there will be no need to raid.
so....BULL...consider this a last minute revised tactic and take from it what you will....
hey Bull.... I reread the last news release and although VU-1 may be sending a complimentary 1st generation bulb sooner I am certain they're not sending out the 2nd generation bulbs until March 23....have I misread the announcement?
Also, can anyone explain the Rule 144 application and/or short sale restriction for the recent 4.9 million share offering (exactly what date are those investors free to sell?) and the significance of the promised shelf registration with reference to the April 10th date mentioned therein?
I interpret it as an attempt to protect both these secondary investors from additional offerings by VU-1 prior to expiration of the restriction from sale date while also protecting existing shareholders from short selling the stock in anticipation of further dilution...any comments appreciated.
Is it possible that the 4.9 million share offering is just the beginning of a string of equity financing to get manufacturing up to speed while revenues still uncertain or does the wording in the recent equity financing contract minimize that risk?
i meant 360m float and 780m o/s but still lots of shares
Penny...say your 26% CAGR is close, do you think share value of POSC can increase above current levels hovering around .04 with just $125 million income from the PET scanner and any extra from their nuclear pharma the next four years?
spread over nearly 200m outstanding and a billion total including closely held shares how can $125m have any substantial impact?
do you have an opinion about the tremendous amount of closely held shares that seem to be ignored in most discussion about true company value?
ginch....small world i am also trading your vet's stock as it upgraded off BB to the AMEX recently....and ask Bull to tell you about the $heff....
DD22 agreed looks weak at 70s but volume more consistent than November's pullback so maybe less violent one building a base to higher
Ordered today also GLTY
Announcement of MastOut final approval soon?
won't a reverse split accomplish the same? many pennies evaporate following reverse splits, is a similar fate ours?
Please clarify: Integrity = Gravy, Thrush = Meat, Property & Equipment = Potatoes, PVD = Master Chef?
Debt servicing offsets Income so Bonafide Value = ?
What valuation methods are being used to come up with company value and PPS estimates....has anyone factored in the cost of the borrowed $34 million?
P.S. Revenues are nice to know but useless in determining company value especially if expenses are greater so advertise net income (after tax preferably) to help us calculate a more accurate company worth.
And cease the pump & dump, thrash & crash philosophy and speak rationally - this company may succeed but the polarized views just create unnecessary fog and serve only to dumb us down allowing easy predation.
ref pvt msg: take your best guess...check out priors...aviation background slants perspective