Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARNA)

[flybucks]

for longs it is not whether adcom should recommend & FDA should approve... it is whether they will...

based on the enormous short positions placed i surmise big money believes no approval. so whether that derives from good dd or panel corruption does not matter....success usually follows the money but these plays are like lotto....there is an opportunity here to bet against the odds with presumably nice reward.

but what i was really referring to was the probability of a bear raid prior to adcom as mentioned in earlier post by the bull. i don't have statistical support but in the few years i have played these volatile approval plays my gut reminds me that bear raids seem to precede highly contested approvals more often than they preceded disapprovals...i welcome any statistical studies supporting or to the contrary.

DNDN, POZN, SOMX are a couple of those bear raids i remember.

if this logic withstands statistical analysis then longs should invite the bear raid....the question then becomes how to best position to benefit from both the raid and then the approval? the bull has an interesting strategy to accomplish just that.