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Right on cue, SR60 failed for the 4th straight time. TOS made another good entry basically at the close of Y. I used this entry to get more long. Seems nothing can stop this run. Okay with me.
I posted a couple of days ago, how the play of the month has been to watch for a SR60 sell and then jump in long when TOS gave a buy signal and the SR60 signal failed.
Y at 11am, SR60 gave another sell signal at 79.02 (even though I would not have executed until later in the day). So once again we will see what happens this morning. Futures were up but now they have fallen back down, so maybe this will be the one signal to not fail.
However as I have said because of the time contraint that I have at the present, I just can not plan to trade during the day. Also looking back at SR60, I realize that it often can get whip sawed as it has this month. So I have been playing around with something a little slower. Below is the chart that I have been watching. It has no history, so I do not present it as a system, but just a "here is what I am watching." Any comments would be welcome. I am watching for a MACD/Signal crossover and seperation and also a Stoc MA break of 80. Then I will consider that maybe the market is turning down.
I'll watch for a while, thanks for link. Several on the board said they had gone 100% short, which matches my SR60 signal. But with 3 fails so far this month, I would not hold my breath. One day it will turn, maybe this is it.
Duma > CS guys here
They lost their Old Home, ClearStation closing Down > Done
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=23176
BT's timing board is looking good, as well as Foot's board and then 'the new CS Board' just for starters. All the best, LKB
I will have more to say later about Slow 60min chart, but it's too early yet.
When SR60 gets a sell signal, it either turns into a full fledge short or a false signal as the one on the 23rd was. I see a great pattern where a good TOS buy comes when the SR60 fails as it did yesterday. Putting this into my trade pattern book.
Got any links to these new traders?
Jon
Duma, nice to hear from you and happy to hear you are busy rather than the many less pleasant other possibilities that could hit us in this life.
I don't know how you avoid the red lines even in an upward trending market. It will be interesting to hear what you mean by a slow 60 min chart.
Nothing goes straight up or down, therefore the red lines go with the territory. The trick is to use them as opportunities.
Spdpro's TOS charts were a winner today, it didn't matter what tick or time chart you were on as they pointed Up, up and away after the morning dive.
Seems to be a bunch of new, smart traders have discovered iHub.....all for the benefit of those of us paying attention.
Cheers, LKB
Since the beginning of the year, I have gotten involved with a project that is eating up all of my time. I have no time during the day to concentrate and trade the market. As a result I have had to resort to a different type of trading.
The chart below shows the run the market has had since Dec 20th. There have been minor pullbacks, but each one quickly reversed. The red lines are the three short signals that have been generated by SR60 in Jan. It clearly shows that in this type of market, the SR60 signals are too fast.
My plan is to continue to work with a what I call a Slow 60min chart and when I do get the time to trade, to reuse the great intraday techniques from last year. I see a lot of great intraday trades in the evening, today being a great example.
Hope everyone is having a good start to the year trading.
intrigued, I took a quick 13 year spin thru my data base and find his idea would get you into some great trades during the rare years with pronounced low vix but the hidden bogeyman is whipsawing on his idea. By that I mean his idea says be long under 20 but cash over 20.
I lost track how many whipsays I saw back and forth of positions, losing 1-2 points at a time.
I have found in the past that many times an idea like this does not factor in your whipsaw cost, and in his case it would be substantial.
Please don't get me wrong, my own work has had many bad performances and mis-fires, I am just pointing out the rocky road from article to reality.
interesting article. Though I didn't see him mention it, there are times when vix has been as low as 9 and as high as 50+ , but yet there are tradeable moves in both those areas.
If I had the time it would be great to crunch his idea into a spreadsheet and see how it played out.
There are two methods I have seen that turn theories into reality (sometimes harsh reality).
spreadsheets and/or wealth-lab type stuff to say yea or nay on an idea truend into backtest.
and collective2.com to take it into the harsh reality of a public audit.
(speaking from experience-ugh)
I think there are a ton of articles like Hurlburts which could benefit from that.
I agree with you, 80% w/l would be great.
watching and doing Nothing here
Playing wait and see
seems like that was the correct wag
nothing worth mention thus far but EUR made it's 1.30 back
Yep see Ya in the AM, green Algo drip can run for days
and we are in the pinacle of earnings this week
On 60min chart MACD and Stoc are showing neg divers. We will see if they amount to anything. This run is getting mighty long.
spdpro
yes part of the game for sure :o)
and
every music man or woman has a few bad nights as well LOL
i have both of the above periodically to deal with these days.
but really i loss more on a trade why due to i play music for fun
and not for the $.
all right kind of late and i guess soon the Ratz will be around so perhaps since i am up still i will take a look.
coldHawk > all good here, had some TZA bobbles with
the overnight insanity, I gambled on the wrong cards
No Matter, part of the game
hi spdpro
how ya doin ??? ok here been trading the 123 or 2B pattern when i day trade, learning the different look of patterns and seem to like it. i still look at S/R's, CCI on the intra day chart but they seem secondary for me. while i still have access to the intra day chart of NYSE A/D i enjoy that as well. the thing is that i am open to trade other things then $RUT type products if i can see the set up fast enough etc.
i have not been visiting this site very often and hope things are going well for you.
OT
i am now in two groups one original and the other covers.
NOT doing any Lee K stuff as of yet but got to say some Classic Mountain " Don't Look Around" certainly gets me riffing. As real youngster i really liked Corky and Leslie in a big way and of course doing my old John B. classic "Black Dog" fills or the Ginger "White Room" thing LOL.
Good trading to you :o)
city hawk in cold NYC
Sammy > no one could access your post so I removed it
Back up to the Nite Ratz, do or die time
Duma > look close at IWM vs TF, you have a huge number of
hours TF was active compared to IWM's from Friday to Tuesday
"non information", TF is Real, that we know in the decision
process and "cash" IWM is resolution to that move, I don't
like but you can't ignore it time after time
I thought adding the after hours to SR60 was going to make a good big difference. So far that has not panned out to be true. I need to spend some time trying to figure out what is wrong.
Another interesting note, my IWM and TF signals are not giving me the same signals. Another one to figure out why.
Look at TOS, /TFH2 233tick, 3 day (all hours)
765.50 area as support (Monday)
I hope your playing the "60" including premarket
like we talked about some time ago, right now I'm
thinking this Gap Fills
Maybe good advice, but I can't do that. Either I play the 60min game by the rules or I don't play at all. If I get a 60min sell, then I will go short. Until then, I will just watch the ups and downs.
take the coin and walk away
I am back to trading SR60. I just don't have the time during the day to concentrate enough to day trade. I went long 200% on Fri at the dip. I just did not think the downgrades would amount to anything by this morning. I hit this one right. Now we will see what happens for the balance of the month.
?? or Not, double edge sword here
As ZH put it, we have a "melt-up stock market". I think Euro fatigue has set in. I know I am tried of every headline sounding like the financial world is going to end any minute. Maybe earning will rule the market for a bit.
Yep, too dang strange
Yeah and everything seems to be pointing to a full blown Greece default soon? Go figure, so far futures don't seem to be too concerned.
we will see tonight after the EFSF downgrade was
thrown on top of that massive downgrade pile "after"
Euro was long closed today and no US market
this is unreal
also don't forget it's OpEx week
Sure looks like the eurozone love love loved the downgrades?! at least judging by the reaction of their equity markets today.
16:15 EuroCircus, part 13, episode 666
http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/01/14/eurozone-idINDEE80C0LI20120114
?? I think I'm sitting this one out
Market not looking too good this morning.
No problem Duma, VTOMD EMA System: No long trades are permitted when the 100 EMA is below the 200 EMA and price is below the 100 EMA. However upon further investigation I have discovered that the RSI 5 never gets below 7, so it is safe to buy at 8 regardless of what the market is doing. But in a steep decline your trades may not be profitable regardless, so the EMA system stands.
Posting for Mr.Cassandra...this is an interesting approach to using VIX. I know you gave up on your recent model but, this might be of interest. I wouldn't go to cash but, rather use it as a guideline for accessing probabilities for long and short positions. Plus, I think the number I would use is 24.5 not 20. I have had a big line across my VIX chart at 24.5 for some time now. Following their advice one would not have gained or lost anything during the volatility. Personally, I prefer a volatile market.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cash-is-still-king-at-least-for-now-2012-01-10?Link=obinsite
09:45 Out of TZA load, gave it my best escape fight
took a hit, No Big deal, houses money from Dec.
Will Regroup for the kill later after this move
sorts itself, part of the Game, That Monday night
move hung me out pretty good
Been There done that again >No Worries
"I therefore conclude that while the weekly MACD VTO buy blocker will eliminate the bad VTO trades it will also eliminate the vast majority of VTO trades as these occur during trading range markets."
Why are you assuming this? If in a trading range, the MACD on the weekly could very well be chopping around above the zero line, which wouldn't eliminate the good VTO trades.
Refresh me again please of your ema system.
Here's a QQQ chart for a time span including the rally starting Sept 2010. Note that there was only one VTO buy during that bull run which occured in Nov. I therefore conclude that while the weekly MACD VTO buy blocker will eliminate the bad VTO trades it will also eliminate the vast majority of VTO trades as these occur during trading range markets. I prefer the EMA system I suggested previously to prevent participation in severe bear markets.
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As of Oct 2013 I made a major shift in my trading to Phase Charts. I then stopped all my trading with SR60 and F85 although I still use the signals with Phase Trading when the timing is right. I feel that this is a good time to stop using this board to describe and document my trading. This board has operated very well of late as a general board and I like that. I plan to continue posting my general comments on this board just as before, but starting today, Oct 28, I will post all my comments about Phase Trading on a new board that I have created, CYCLE TRADING.
In Dec 2010, this board was given a new name. It was formerly the CSG board for the people from Clearstation (CS). The aim of this board is to openly share our trading methods, and help each other make money. It is important that all posters are respectful and while questions may arise about what is posted, responses should never turn personal. You are encouraged to post charts or other visuals to share your ideas. All ideas on this board are free to use or share as you see fit. No subscriptions needed. If what you learn here helps you, please give to the charity of your choice.
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