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Moderator: Duma Assistants: spdpro
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Last Post: 2/24/2017 11:35:59 AM - Followers: 71 - Board type: Free - Posts Today: 4

INTRODUCTION (modified 10/2014)

I originally created this board for the specific purpose of discussing the Phase Chart method of trading cycles that was first presented on the ETF SWING & DAY TRADING board, my main board.
I have since changed that goal.  I now much more favor a community of traders who know how to share ideas with each other and discuss ideas about how to improve cycle trading. That is what we have evolved to, and I like it. So if you have an idea, we would love to hear it.
If you are a new trader and want some help, we will do our best to point you in the right direction to get you started. There are no dumb questions on this board?



All of us do a lot of posting on this board with our ideas and our views of what we see. That doesn’t mean that they are all correct. We all bring our history of trading with us, so there will be lots of times that two traders will see the same event very differently. There is nothing wrong with that. 

I for one am still in a very large learning curve and very much appreciate the views of others, even if I don’t agree or can’t understand. So I try to pick and choose what I think works with my personality and my trading style. I have gotten new ideas from the most unusually places. That search never ends. 

So if you disagree with something that I say, please by all means, post back as how you see things and WHY. The WHY is very important. I have totally reversed my opinion on issues many times after hearing a good argument for another view. I respect your right to a different opinion/view. This board, as all boards should be, is about how to make all of us better traders. We learn from each other.

Personal attacks on posters either directly or indirectly will not be tolerated. Continued useless posts will not be allowed.

Yield Summary for 2016

Buy & Hold 
12.0% SPY 
10.8% SSO (stated as 1x) 
 21.6% IWM 
19.7% TNA (stated as 1x) 

Traded with Daily Phase Chart 
16.3% SPY 
38.8% IWM 
 48.9% TNA (a bit of a surprise, same trade dates as IWM) 

Sector Trading with Daily Phase Chart (The 10 SPDR ETFs) 
Independent Trading
19.3% Each sector invested with the same weighting as in the S&P when long 
Rebalance Trading
24.3% Investing long sectors only with weighting each has in S&P, scaled up to 100% 
 26.0% same as above except scaled to 110% when 9 sectors long 
27.7% same as above except scaled to 120% when 9 sectors long 
29.1% same as above except scaled to 125% when 9 sectors long 

PHASE TRADING - I am changing my focus for 2017 to the Daily Charts. See posts 16950 and 17054 for more detail.
The following is a description of how I normally trade each Phase. In the past I gave guide lines for shorting. With my focus now on Daily charts I do not advocate shorting. Long only.
 Mark Down - Should start MD phase in cash. Hold cash until get long signal. Singal is when MACD
(85,90,24) flattens and MACD-histogram(85,90,24)>MA5.

 Accumulation  - Should be long. A few times the trade fails, but is low probability.  If it does fail, just get out and get ready for the next signal. I like to go back to cash if 
MACD-histogram(85,90,24) drops back below MA10.

 Mark Up  - Stay long. At times I have used 2nd support as a stop, but it is seldom needed.

 Distribution  - Go to cash immediately upon entering Distribution. Go long again with the same rules as going long in Mark Down.


IWM Daily Phase Chart

SPY - Daily Phase Chart

QQQ - Daily Phase Chart

Major Indexes plus BRK YTD

The Big Three


Sector Trading

I have changed my direction for trading in 2017. After trading 60min charts for many years, I have decided to go back to daily charts. I am doing this for two reasons. 1) I want to have more free time in 2017, and 2) I have come to believe that Sector Trading with the use of my Phase Daily Charts will give some impressive results. In 2016 this style of trading gained over 25% vs S&P of 12%. I will be very pleased with anything over 20%.

There are no guarantees that this will work, so it is somewhat an experimental plan.
I will be adding additional information in this area and document the results.


Summary for week 2/3/2017

update 2/22
* executed to drop XLE
update 2/21
* was not able to execute dropping XLE on Fri. With major gap up today, I have put trade to drop XLE on hold

weekend update 2/17/17

* XLE continues very weak and signaled cash at close Fri. This will move program back to 9 long sectors.
* XLF moved from DS back into MU with a very strong week, winner for the week at 2.90%
* XLV has now had 3 very strong weeks and has moved from AC into MU.

List of key posts that I wrote on Sector Trading as I developed my plan. 
16870 - why Sector investing
16901 - Phase trading by Sector
16950 - initial investigation and results for trading by Sectors
17054 - Investors vs Traders
17065 - how to become rich
17090 - final yield numbers for 2016
17130 - Rebalance and Independent Invest plans described


10 Habits of Highly Profitable Traders
1. Create asymmetry in your trading by using stop losses. Profitable trading only happens by making more money than you lose. Big losses are the main cause of not being profitable. Eliminate big losses by cutting your loss when proven wrong. 
2. Have a great risk/reward ratio on entry. Give yourself the potential to make two or three times more if you are right than you could lose if you are wring. Let a winning trade run until there is a reason to exit. 
3. Trade with the odds on your side. Trade historical patterns and price action that has worked in the past. 
4. Trade a plan and a system using quantifiable signals instead of your own predictions and opinions. 
5. Trade your plan with discipline and perseverance. 
6. Limit your capital at risk on any one trade to eliminate your risk of ruin. 
7. Work so hard when the market is closed that all their is to do when the market is open is take your signals. 
8. Have a system that profits in up and down trends. 
9. Have a system that works in multiple markets. 
10. Trade position sizing that does not cause your emotions or ego to get louder than your trading plan.

Linda Raschke's 12 Rules for Technical Trading.

1. Buy the first pullback after a new high. Sell the first rally after a new low. 
2. Afternoon strength or weakness should have follow through the next day. 
3. The best trading reversals occur in the morning, not the afternoon. 
4. The larger the market gaps, the greater the odds of continuation and a trend. 
5. The way the market trades around the previous day’s high or low is a good indicator of the market’s technical strength or weakness. 
6. The previous day’s high and low are two very important “pivot” points, for this was the definitive point where buyers or sellers came in the day before. Look for the market to either test and reverse off these points, or push through and show signs of continuation. 
7. The last hour often tells the truth about how strong a trend truly is. “Smart” money shows their hand in the last hour, continuing to mark positions in their favor. As long as a market is having consecutive strong closes, look for up-trend to continue. The up trend is most likely to end when there is a morning rally first, followed by a weak close. 
8. High volume on the close implies continuation the next morning in the direction of the last half-hour. In a strongly trending market, look for resumption of the trend in the last hour. 
9. The first hour’s range establishes the framework for the rest of the trading day
10. A greater percentage of the day’s range occurs in the first hour then was the case in the past, and thus it has become increasingly important to trade aggressively if there are early signs of a strong trend for the day. 
11. There are four basic principles of price behavior which have held up over time. Confidence that a type of price action is a true principle is what allows a trader to develop a systematic approach. The following four principles can be modeled and quantified and hold true for all time frames, all markets. The majority of patterns or systems that have a demonstrable edge are based on one of these four enduring principles of price behavior. Charles Dow was one of the first to touch on them in his writings. 
Principle One: A Trend Has a Higher Probability of Continuation than Reversal 
Principle Two: Momentum Precedes Price 
Principle Three: Trends End in a Climax 
Principle Four: The Market Alternates between Range Expansion and Range Contraction! 
12. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word – Nobody! Thus the successful trader does not base moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen. 

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Three X ETF's

FOMC Schedule

June 14-15 FOMC Meeting (Jun)* 
July 26-27 FOMC Meeting (Jul)* 
August > None 
September 20-21 FOMC Meeting (Sep) 
October > None 
November 1-2 FOMC Meeting (Nov) >> Elections 
December 13-14 FOMC Meeting (Dec)* 

* Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections 
and a press conference (dog and pony show) by the Chair 


#17352  Sticky Note I wanted to really make a point of Duma 02/08/17 03:32:18 PM
#17338  Sticky Note Over the weekend I was given links to Duma 02/06/17 12:47:26 PM
#17247  Sticky Note I added a section in the intro for Duma 01/16/17 03:00:52 PM
#17494   have a good weekend gang > Later spdpro 02/24/17 11:35:59 AM
#17493   Good to know that you are looking at Duma 02/24/17 08:51:57 AM
#17492   Let's see if I got this. JLS 02/24/17 02:50:28 AM
#17491   Re Black candles ... JLS 02/24/17 02:11:43 AM
#17490   A bit more candle talk rotor1 02/23/17 07:01:39 PM
#17489   No E Wave, like most things it can be rotor1 02/23/17 06:19:47 PM
#17488   Stock Charts I think uses a little different Duma 02/23/17 06:15:32 PM
#17487   rotor1, JLS 02/23/17 04:19:01 PM
#17486   The Measured Move is a little higher rotor1 02/23/17 02:46:49 PM
#17485   Re Market (and X), JLS 02/23/17 01:31:56 PM
#17484   I didn't even look that far rotor1 02/23/17 11:25:55 AM
#17483   Re ENLK, JLS 02/23/17 10:53:57 AM
#17482   Thanks for the explanation rotor1 02/23/17 09:35:39 AM
#17481 needs to rest a bit... JLS 02/22/17 02:17:58 AM
#17480   Wow, that sounds far too complicated rotor1 02/21/17 08:25:06 PM
#17479   CLF Textbook Flag, JLS 02/21/17 05:20:07 PM
#17478   Re California Examiner JLS 02/21/17 02:59:16 PM
#17477   Thanks, that makes two of us that rotor1 02/21/17 12:45:52 PM
#17476   Re Cal Examiner, JLS 02/21/17 12:03:47 PM
#17475   CLF and KATE rotor1 02/20/17 12:08:07 PM
#17474   I have 10min buys on AGI, NUGT, CLF, Duma 02/18/17 03:17:14 PM
#17473   33 days into 2017, what a difference a Duma 02/18/17 01:28:23 PM
#17472   Re dividends, JLS 02/17/17 08:32:48 PM
#17471   Re ETE, JLS 02/17/17 06:36:42 PM
#17470   I see your point that you have not Duma 02/17/17 05:51:02 PM
#17469   have a good weekend (Monday closed) < Later spdpro 02/17/17 11:57:42 AM
#17468   Thanks for update. My other LT strats are jaws57 02/17/17 11:00:36 AM
#17467   I agree dividends are valuable. JLS 02/16/17 10:13:09 PM
#17466   Dividends have to be reinvested or of course Duma 02/16/17 07:55:30 PM
#17465   I like ETE, but waiting for a 10min Duma 02/16/17 07:41:48 PM
#17464   ETE is interesting to me. JLS 02/16/17 05:08:19 PM
#17463   Call spreads are new for me. JLS 02/16/17 04:55:19 PM
#17462 Historical Price Data is Adjusted for Splits, Dividend JLS 02/16/17 04:41:05 PM
#17461   look,see > sitting on hands prob till tues > spdpro 02/16/17 11:18:38 AM
#17460   Finally got time to compare to the data Duma 02/16/17 02:14:07 AM
#17459   Later Bro spdpro 02/15/17 10:29:04 PM
#17458   Signing off CITYHAWK 02/15/17 10:24:11 PM
#17457   Perhaps it is just a matter of higher CITYHAWK 02/15/17 10:22:14 PM
#17456   trying to anyway > I have not done spdpro 02/15/17 10:21:08 PM
#17455   Ah sounds like you are getting inspired :o) CITYHAWK 02/15/17 10:19:24 PM
#17454   need to see if I can do some spdpro 02/15/17 10:14:12 PM
#17453   maybe I should have spdpro 02/15/17 10:10:53 PM
#17452   the only thing seemingly easier is my not CITYHAWK 02/15/17 10:10:34 PM
#17451   Blue River Rules !!!!!!! CITYHAWK 02/15/17 10:08:33 PM
#17450   it "ain't" easy now a dayz, > cRaZy spdpro 02/15/17 10:07:01 PM
#17449   Gee , i will have to take a CITYHAWK 02/15/17 10:03:21 PM
#17448   Yep > look at uvxy "blue river" on spdpro 02/15/17 10:02:19 PM
#17447   Duma CITYHAWK 02/15/17 09:57:29 PM
#17446   hi spdpro CITYHAWK 02/15/17 09:54:05 PM
#17445   Yes it is nice when one can start Duma 02/15/17 08:08:11 PM