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Last Post: 12/8/2016 4:43:26 AM - Followers: 70 - Board type: Free - Posts Today: 1
INTRODUCTION (modified 10/2014)

I originally created this board for the specific purpose of discussing the Phase Chart method of trading cycles that was first presented on the ETF SWING & DAY TRADING board, my main board.
I have since changed that goal.  I now much more favor a community of traders who know how to share ideas with each other and discuss ideas about how to improve cycle trading. That is what we have evolved to, and I like it. So if you have an idea, we would love to hear it.
If you are a new trader and want some help, we will do our best to point you in the right direction to get you started. There are no dumb questions on this board?



All of us do a lot of posting on this board with our ideas and our views of what we see. That doesn’t mean that they are all correct. We all bring our history of trading with us, so there will be lots of times that two traders will see the same event very differently. There is nothing wrong with that. 

I for one am still in a very large learning curve and very much appreciate the views of others, even if I don’t agree or can’t understand. So I try to pick and choose what I think works with my personality and my trading style. I have gotten new ideas from the most unusually places. That search never ends. 

So if you disagree with something that I say, please by all means, post back as how you see things and WHY. The WHY is very important. I have totally reversed my opinion on issues many times after hearing a good argument for another view. I respect your right to a different opinion/view. This board, as all boards should be, is about how to make all of us better traders. We learn from each other.

However if all you want to do is post back what a dumb shit I am for my view, you will not be welcome on this board.

PHASE TRADING (Note: My SSO trade markings depict a more conservation set of rules that I use for trading a larger account)
The following is a general description of what is going to happen in each Phase.
 Mark Down - If not already short when the phase starts, get short quickly. Hold short until MACD flattens and get a F85 buy signal. Trade as heavy as you can stand. F85 signal requires MACD-histogram(85,90,24)>MA5 and Price bar close>either 20EMA or 20MA.

 Accumulation  - Should be long, if not, get long and again be as heavy long as one can stand.  A few times the trade fails, but is low probability.  If it does fail, just get out and get ready for the next signal.

 Mark Up  - Stay long unless 2nd support is broken with a 60min bar close.  If entered phase from accumulation, odds very good for big success.  If entered from distribution, take some caution. Gap downs are possible.

 Distribution  - This is the killer phase. Prices have a hard time finding direction and usually end up going sideways before falling. Look for a short when prices retest high during the consolidation and a lower high is formed. But have to be ready for almost anything. Use 2nd support as stop for either cash or going short depending on how aggressive you want to be.


SSO PHASE 60 CHART - Just trade the Phase changes, conservative


SSO Phase 60 (a little more aggressive signals)

TNA Phase 60 (a little more aggressive signals)

SPY - Daily Phase Chart

The Big Three

10 Habits of Highly Profitable Traders
1. Create asymmetry in your trading by using stop losses. Profitable trading only happens by making more money than you lose. Big losses are the main cause of not being profitable. Eliminate big losses by cutting your loss when proven wrong. 
2. Have a great risk/reward ratio on entry. Give yourself the potential to make two or three times more if you are right than you could lose if you are wring. Let a winning trade run until there is a reason to exit. 
3. Trade with the odds on your side. Trade historical patterns and price action that has worked in the past. 
4. Trade a plan and a system using quantifiable signals instead of your own predictions and opinions. 
5. Trade your plan with discipline and perseverance. 
6. Limit your capital at risk on any one trade to eliminate your risk of ruin. 
7. Work so hard when the market is closed that all their is to do when the market is open is take your signals. 
8. Have a system that profits in up and down trends. 
9. Have a system that works in multiple markets. 
10. Trade position sizing that does not cause your emotions or ego to get louder than your trading plan.

Linda Raschke's 12 Rules for Technical Trading.

1. Buy the first pullback after a new high. Sell the first rally after a new low. 
2. Afternoon strength or weakness should have follow through the next day. 
3. The best trading reversals occur in the morning, not the afternoon. 
4. The larger the market gaps, the greater the odds of continuation and a trend. 
5. The way the market trades around the previous day’s high or low is a good indicator of the market’s technical strength or weakness. 
6. The previous day’s high and low are two very important “pivot” points, for this was the definitive point where buyers or sellers came in the day before. Look for the market to either test and reverse off these points, or push through and show signs of continuation. 
7. The last hour often tells the truth about how strong a trend truly is. “Smart” money shows their hand in the last hour, continuing to mark positions in their favor. As long as a market is having consecutive strong closes, look for up-trend to continue. The up trend is most likely to end when there is a morning rally first, followed by a weak close. 
8. High volume on the close implies continuation the next morning in the direction of the last half-hour. In a strongly trending market, look for resumption of the trend in the last hour. 
9. The first hour’s range establishes the framework for the rest of the trading day
10. A greater percentage of the day’s range occurs in the first hour then was the case in the past, and thus it has become increasingly important to trade aggressively if there are early signs of a strong trend for the day. 
11. There are four basic principles of price behavior which have held up over time. Confidence that a type of price action is a true principle is what allows a trader to develop a systematic approach. The following four principles can be modeled and quantified and hold true for all time frames, all markets. The majority of patterns or systems that have a demonstrable edge are based on one of these four enduring principles of price behavior. Charles Dow was one of the first to touch on them in his writings. 
Principle One: A Trend Has a Higher Probability of Continuation than Reversal 
Principle Two: Momentum Precedes Price 
Principle Three: Trends End in a Climax 
Principle Four: The Market Alternates between Range Expansion and Range Contraction! 
12. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word – Nobody! Thus the successful trader does not base moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen. 

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Three X ETF's

FOMC Schedule

June 14-15 FOMC Meeting (Jun)* 
July 26-27 FOMC Meeting (Jul)* 
August > None 
September 20-21 FOMC Meeting (Sep) 
October > None 
November 1-2 FOMC Meeting (Nov) >> Elections 
December 13-14 FOMC Meeting (Dec)* 

* Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections 
and a press conference (dog and pony show) by the Chair 


#16506  Sticky Note Like some things that Foot had to say Duma 10/13/16 11:23:56 AM
#16352  Sticky Note Selling CCs JLS 09/20/16 02:03:31 AM
#16946   Jaws Are u still holding TNA longs - what NASARAVI 12/08/16 04:43:26 AM
#16945   >> Thursday >> spdpro 12/07/16 08:31:58 PM
#16944   off to Indy > see you guys Monday > spdpro 12/07/16 07:56:47 PM
#16943   SPY now back in MU phase. H1 has jaws57 12/07/16 06:24:14 PM
#16942   Jaws Thanks a lot - I will study and NASARAVI 12/07/16 03:41:03 PM
#16941   Im trading 2 systems at once so when jaws57 12/07/16 03:05:19 PM
#16940   Too Infinity and beyond spdpro 12/07/16 03:04:04 PM
#16939   Jaws NASARAVI 12/07/16 12:49:47 PM
#16938   look see > Later gang spdpro 12/07/16 11:09:47 AM
#16937   H1 looking for another short. OB at the jaws57 12/07/16 12:42:18 AM
#16936   WooHoo3 view, jaws57 12/07/16 12:02:39 AM
#16935   GS as well. CITYHAWK 12/06/16 10:17:31 PM
#16934   yes, that was defiantly a 60's thing > spdpro 12/06/16 07:20:59 PM
#16933   Went long when the H1 system got stopped jaws57 12/06/16 06:10:09 PM
#16932   LOL, that reminds me of the hyperbolic paraboloid Swampdude 12/06/16 03:15:52 PM
#16931   look see > madness > hyperbolic move spdpro 12/06/16 02:47:04 PM
#16930   Jaws Congrats. NASARAVI 12/06/16 12:23:34 PM
#16929   Thanks, not sure whats next, so just waiting. jaws57 12/06/16 11:21:12 AM
#16928   good move, glad it worked out spdpro 12/06/16 10:38:49 AM
#16927   Out now cash. +3.72% on the 2pos. Going mob/afk. jaws57 12/06/16 10:32:53 AM
#16926   Later > no vol, range locked till ? spdpro 12/06/16 10:25:01 AM
#16925   Both of my systems still conflict. Should be jaws57 12/06/16 10:10:41 AM
#16924   Yday I went short on TNA (and SSO) Duma 12/06/16 10:06:18 AM
#16923   Good info, I got to the SPDR web Duma 12/06/16 09:35:35 AM
#16922   mainly was looking at /ES and /TF, neither spdpro 12/06/16 09:23:30 AM
#16921   Just curious, as I am learning by watching, Swampdude 12/06/16 09:03:25 AM
#16920   dump all @ 9.45, seems cram up continues > spdpro 12/06/16 08:34:29 AM
#16919   Haven't seen your chart in a while, thanks Duma 12/06/16 08:29:21 AM
#16918   Stops never hit but came very close. So jaws57 12/06/16 12:54:43 AM
#16917   17:08:26 added 200 uvxy @ 9.67 spdpro 12/05/16 06:31:13 PM
#16916   Finding Nemo, JLS 12/05/16 05:03:01 PM
#16915   I couldn't find any information linking each of Duma 12/05/16 02:14:01 PM
#16914   S&P500 Sector Breakdown JLS 12/05/16 01:06:26 PM
#16913   Awesome - keep your inputs coming. NASARAVI 12/05/16 12:28:22 PM
#16912   nice > Later out the door spdpro 12/05/16 12:04:30 PM
#16911   Got 3% bird locked in at the moment. jaws57 12/05/16 12:00:43 PM
#16910   Thanks, hopefully I wont bust this one. jaws57 12/05/16 11:59:41 AM
#16909   a gap fill would not surprise me spdpro 12/05/16 11:59:15 AM
#16908   Bull case scenario on SPX. from 2 trading jaws57 12/05/16 11:58:26 AM
#16907   TNA has just completed a 62% pb. This Duma 12/05/16 11:42:09 AM
#16906   This is very clear: JLS 12/05/16 11:20:18 AM
#16905   Jaws Great call. NASARAVI 12/05/16 10:53:29 AM
#16904   10:47:21 in uvxy 300 @ 10.13 spdpro 12/05/16 10:49:13 AM
#16903   decision time spdpro 12/05/16 10:39:30 AM
#16902   looking for uvxy reload 10.13ish spdpro 12/05/16 10:35:46 AM
#16901   I woke up early this morning and finished Duma 12/05/16 10:03:11 AM
#16900   Good call. Duma 12/05/16 09:55:40 AM
#16899   Some very good comments I will address. As Duma 12/05/16 08:35:01 AM
#16898   Fair enough, so to avoid another weekend like Duma 12/05/16 08:06:15 AM
#16897   Things to think about. JLS 12/05/16 02:49:38 AM