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I have to think being forced to follow some other persons personal beliefs is more motivating for getting out the vote than voting to force another person to follow your rules. Even old folks have grand daughters, Prop 4, and many have begun to use medical cannibas, Prop 3. DeSantis was outrageously irresponsible in his decision on hemp, which is where in an uncontrolled market, children will have access. I guess he is hoping for A)Their money and B)A tradgedy of a young child getting harmed.
Ammendment 4 will also bring lots of positive energy to Ammendment 3........lots of motivation to a group that does not always get out to vote.........they both have a chance.
When did we start listening to Desantis? His arguement is nonsense. Basically the claim is that the Radical ammendments are not as written but part of a secret agenda. Can they sell this conspiracy theory BS?
Sorry to have raised this question. It sounds like it came from the Court in an email. Hard to see how it could take them so long to reach their opinions.
Is the "capitolist.com" a reliable source. Very suspicious, and the timing, market closing on Monday. Have no idea what their motivation would be, but they are reported as originally being a marketing arm of a Florida utitiity.
I have no info but you are right, IMO. The Court is conservative and they do not want proponents to be able to say the ammendment has the stamp of their approval, but there are no legal grounds to deny it being on the ballot. So it goes on by default.
The interesting thing in the market this week is the huge volume in the Canadian companies on US exchanges! Prices and Volume up. If and when Trulieve gets onto a US Exchange it seems that 25 to 50 percent could happen almost instantly. How do holdings convert from OTC to Nasdaq?
And for market guessers out there, what companies are the Canadians going to be buying up first?
looking for some perspective, hope someone can help. The categories that OMMU report in Florida - Flower, CBD, and THC....how do they compare in regards to profitability? Thanks for any ideas.
Wow, extrapolating to what institutional ownership could come with the big boards, the Nomura purchase of 11.7 million shares is great news.
I am all for legalization and adult use, but do think thc levels should be controlled. This proposed legislation could help "difuse" one of the strong arguments that could be presented to convince Florida voters to oppose the ammendment. In addition, it puts a legislative approval (of sorts) to mainstream the process of administering the legal market. Levels need to be reasonable, not like 2.5 Beer at the low end, and not like Golden Grain alcohol at the high end.
That is great. The talk of lower cost, highly automated grow sounded good but I had no idea what scale they could go to. If recreational passes on the ballot, they will have some time, but still for production to triple is quite a feat. No doubt some of the competitors, who are struggling with production quality at their current scale, will really have issues with higher volume. I was just fishing for opinions and analysis from more active observers of the industry in Florida.
Politically, my "guess" is that the Florida Supreme Court will allow the legalization ammendment to go onto the ballot by default. For them to rule for it could be used as an argument that it was approved by the Court. So that makes it April fools day, if I remember the scheduling. What are the opinions of how prepared Trulieve is regarding the growinig and processing aspect of being ready for their Florida business doubling or much more (3X, 4X, 5X)?
I am in Georgia and remember well traveling to the state line to buy fireworks back in the day. The amount of business from vacationers and folks from Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi will be enormous. Speaking of growing and processing, any opinions of how ready the other operators in Florida are for a massive change in sales volume?
It looked like there was some kind of court filing last week contesting it, I thought some on board might know about it. Odd, that TL has not even mentioned that TL, AL got the award............to avoid future bad news if they lose it? Big year ahead with the Fl Supreme Court decision as well as DEA change decision. It is exciting if all these things go well but kind of scary if they all go bad!
does anyone know what is happening in Alabama?
Looking toward an optomistic future, with under 2% institutional ownership, can we expect that to swell to 70% when we get on the real boards? And what should that do to support a higher price?
280E Recapture. If 280 e happens, I read it is possible to recapture all monies paid in the past under 280e upon exit. Does this mean that a 100 million dollar purchase would be reduced by the recapture..........or would the seller get the 100 million plus the recapture? This could create a selling / buying frenzy either way. How does an investor play this either way? Any guesses?
Looking at the volume of Canopy Growth and the volume of Trulieve with prices 11% up compared to 80%+ up in one day............I think we are getting a preview of what will happen once Trulieve gets to the Grown Up Table and gets listed in New York. Of course, things have shown that they can quickly drop, but once we get into the real market place and start selling at the volume that can happen there, it is going to be incredible.
After being forced to simplify the Ammendment vote to a Single Issue............they are attacking it for not spelling out various issues in detail.
So they had an impressive sounding CFO that started the 10th and resigned the 20th. Why is no one talking about that?
No one offered any opinion on the move in Georgia suggesting allowing hundreds of pharmacies to fill prescriptions for medical cannibas. It seems to me that would make Trulieves retail stores obsolete. They could maximize on wholesale though. We also did not make the cut in Alabama, which was a kick in the pants, though that apparently is being re-evaluated.
The opposition to the measure is to restrict voter turnout among those who would welcome the opportunity to vote for legalization. The assumption being, they are not the "type" of voter Desantis needs to be voting. Are the court members Judges or Political Hacks.............sometimes integrity shows through, sometimes it doesn't.
How profitable is wholesale? Sounds like retail locations will not be viable in Georgia unless there are major changes to the laws (flower).
Since we are gambling anyway, I am looking for a Trifecta......................Fla Supreme Court does not find a reason to kill the adult use Ammendment, Congress passes banking reforms, and Cannibas gets rescheduled to a more appropriate Schedule! Of course, I am also glad that they seem to be prepared to keep navigating the current enviroment with tightening their belt. Also curious, if anyone has a coment, why is GTI selling for nearly twice the price of Trulieve?
Trulieve has around half as much institutional ownership listed compared to Green Thumbs or AYR. Is there any significance in that?
Thanks for everyone who shares their analysis and opinions on the board.
I think they had to clearly state the specifics of what the ammendment would accomplish. hence the details. If it just said "An adult over 21 can pocess up to 2 ounces of cannibas" it would be one topic, but what about who can sell it, what about gummies, etc, I think then, the AG would attack it based on vagueness. Georgia had the issue of voting for medical thc oil, but there was no legal way to obtain it until Trulieve finally opened. I posted earlier that keeping it off the ballot is a political goal that has nothing to do with legalization, only keeping young, usually more liberal, voters away from the voting booth. And the court is stacked hard right and may or may not really be devoted to following the Florida Constitution. It is impossible to overstate the shallowness of some of these people, a Republican Party district head in Georgia argues that the earth is really flat, and finds some biblical reference to prove it, you really can't expect much from that level of thinking.
Republicans need Florida to win in 24 and the partisans on the Florida Supreme Court will take their orders to find any reason to kill the ammendment. I am glad TL is tightenig their belt, it may be a while before any big change happens. The only glimmer of hope is if the DeSantis campaign crashes and burns before the ruling, then he may want Trump to lose Florida, giving him a path for a future campaign. Are the judges taking orders from Ron or the Federalist Society? We don't really know.
He lost in Jacksonville. That has meaning.
It seems to me, Trulieve is acknowledging that consumer spending is being suppressed. They are responding with lowering costs of production, which will protect profits ongoing even with expected lower prices. Basically, the market sucks, they are making smart moves in response, preparing for a brighter future. Some reduced Florida competition would be nice if Rec comes about. I made a choice to borrow some cash from myself to replace some high price shares with some at 4.42. Only risk is if the price stays below that after 30 days! Plan to sell (my older more expensive shares) then, Locking in a bunch of tax losses! Maybe I will even luck up and the Banking changes will move forward and the share price will jump!!!!! I have been onboard since strolling under the oak trees in Quincy a few years ago, and can't see any reason to run away now.
Super high THC levels may be the Achilles Heel of legal Cannabis. I would like to see more intiatives to get control over the race to higher THC levels. Limits need to be in place. Make high THC prducts medical only - with physcicians controling usage. Delisting, Regulating with legalization is the only path to accomplish that - and this gives the moderates a reason go get behind delisting - continuing to harp about "justice after the war on drugs" mantra needs to end, it has garnered as much attention as it ever will.
Cannibas is illegal under Federal Law.
Am I reading this right that the renewal license is 1.33 million dollars - and every location requires a license? Times 150 (or so) locations that is 200 million dollars.
It is interesting that Mitch targeted Safe Banking and the Energy Permitting Reforms as the two add on legislations that he opposes. I think he is cornering the Dems on the Energy Reforms. He actually likely doesn't oppose the Energy Permitting Reforms. It benefits Next Era (gave his PAC 750,000) and was written on API watermarked paper (according to Jim Hightower) American Petroleum Institute is also a big supporter and coorporate donor. Progressives are against the Reforms as they stop communities from opposing energy projects like the pipeline in West Virginia. By linking the two things, when they do come back (in budget bill?) progressives will have to vote for Safe Banking tied up with the Energy Reforms. As Hightower states a Devils Bargain that was made with Joe Manchin to get his vote on the climate change legislation earlier. So, that leads to a good chance that Safe Banking will come back, be attached, and voted for. The "reforms' were written by and only benefit the giant corportate oil, gas, and energy companies. I have No inside Knowledge, just a hunch, maybe Safe will happen soon.
Legislation about cannibas and Social Equity is just going to bog everything down in the courts. The easy answer is to create a path for the SBA which already has numerous programs to provide funding for areas and persons who deserve extra assistance. Individual areas like NYC can have their own programs what works there may have no revelance to Kansas. If they can just focus on the simple question of legality and why a plant was ever banned to begin with maybe they can pass something. The longer it takes, the more time the shallow minded book burners will have to circle their wagons and stop any changes.
They are leasing space in the same building, not in a Circle K store. Not connected.
GTI just might be ready to explode with the Rise Lite concept, small space, small staff, they are calling it a test marketing period. We all know the current market will be changing, just have to try to predict where it will go. How many Pharmacist run Pharmacies are there? That was 100% a generation ago.
Federal Law means that a child in Georgia using Cannibas Oil to control Epilepsy is breaking the Law of the United States That is totally unacceptable and it is the fault of the law, not the child.
Some, hopefully a lot, should change during the Lame Duck Session.
Another reason that the Feds need to get the industry legalized and regulated for safe manufacturing processes. I would like to hear something from the company addressing what is an obvious safety concern.
small 2K$ buy today at 12.92. Looked at the OMMU reports for the last 3 years......can't see how earnings can be anything bad. They paid the high price of taking on harvest in the past. The earnings have a history of not helping very much, but I am also shifting some holdings from a taxed stock account to a Roth, (will sell some taxed account after 30 days to have a tax loss) optimistic that the 12.92 will go up 4-5 times and it will be tax free in a few short years! Also took a chance this year converting an IRA to a Roth (why I need the tax loss).........hoping at these low numbers it will work out to be the right choice.........looking for a market boom.........as everyone keeps saying it is not a matter of IF but of WHEN. I bought into the Trulieve story after walking around Quincy, so you should definately take my opinions as that!
Bad news from Georgia. The State Legislature is restarting process that Trulieve was a big winner in. Pushing THC Oil back by up to 3 years. Ralston said the state would find a way to bring the oil in and that Feds have told him they would not prosecute ............... maybe Trulieve will be selling them oil from nearby Quincy!
The news about TVA raising the question of whether Mississippi Cities will be allowed to provide electricity to State legal cannabis companies is very interesting. It is a legal avenue that could potentially force the Feds to make a clarification!.............perhaps with the result being making cannabis legal? I don't have a link but it should be a simple web search.
Continuing to build out - even in Florida! Banking Bill will happen......if you are not a day trader. Expected earnings should impress. How will they expand in the North East? That is the big question.